scholarly journals Projecting The Impact of Human Activities And Climate Change On Water Resources In The Transboundary Sre Pok River Basin

Author(s):  
Pragya Pradhan ◽  
Trang Thi Huyen Pham ◽  
Sangam Shrestha ◽  
Loc Ho ◽  
Edward Park

Abstract This study aims to project the compound impacts of climate change and human activities, including agriculture expansion and hydropower generation, on the future water availability in the Sre Pok River Basin. The five regional climate models (RCMs): ACESS, REMO2009, MPI, NorESM, CNRM were selected for the future climate projection under two scenarios i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Our results reveal that the future annual rainfall is expected to decrease by 200 mm whereas the average temperature is expected to increase by 0.69°C to 4.16°C under future scenarios. The future water availability of Sre Pok River Basin was projected using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Next, the CROPWAT model was used to examine the irrigation water requirement and the HEC-ResSim model to simulate the hydropower generation of Buon Tuar Sarh reservoir. The future simulation indicates the decrease in future water availability, increasing demand for irrigation water and decreases in hydropower generation for the future periods. The irrigated areas are increases from 700 ha to 1500 ha as per the provincial development plan. This study also examines the present and future drought conditions of Sre Pok River via streamflow drought index (SDI). Our results expect to contribute toward supporting the planning and management of water resources for agriculture and to efficiently cope with drought conditions in the studied basin and beyond.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Tian ◽  
Shenglian Guo ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu

<p>As a link between the atmosphere and the earth’s surface, the hydrological cycle is impacted by both climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC). For most basins around the world, the co-variation of climate change and LUCC will continue in the future, which highlights the significance to explore the temporal-spatial distribution and variation mechanism of runoff and to improve our ability in water resources planning and management. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to propose a framework to examine the response of runoff to climate change and LUCC under different future scenarios. Firstly, the future climate scenarios under BCC-CSM1.1 and BNU-ESM are both downscaled and bias-corrected by the Daily bias correction (DBC) method, meanwhile, the future LUCC scenarios are predicted by the Cellular Automaton-Markov (CA-Markov) model according to the integrated basin plans of future land use. Then, based on the baseline scenario S0 (meteorological data from 1966 to 2005 and current situation LUCC2010), the following three scenarios are set with different combinations of future climate land-use situations, i.e., S1: only climate change scenario; S2: only the LUCC scenario; S3: climate and LUCC co-variation scenario. Lastly, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the hydrological process and quantify the impacts of climate change and LUCC on the runoff yield. The proposed framework is applied to the Han River basin in China. Results show that: (1) compared with the base period (1966-2005), the annual rainfall, daily maximum, and minimum air temperature during 2021-2060 will have an increase of 4.0%, 1.8℃, 1.6℃ in RCP4.5 while 3.7%, 2.5℃, 2.3℃ in RCP8.5, respectively; (2) from 2010 to 2050, the forest land and construction land in the Han River basin will have an increase of 2.8% and 1.2%, respectively, while that of farmland and grassland will have a decrease of 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively; (3) comparing with the single climate change or LUCC scenario, the co-variation scenario possesses the largest uncertainty in runoff projection. Under the two concentration paths, there is a consistent upward change in future runoff (2021-2060) of the studied basin compared with that in the base period, furthermore, the increase rate in RCP4.5 (+5.10%) is higher than that in RCP8.5 (+2.67%). The results of this study provide a useful reference and help for water resources and land use management in the Han River basin.</p>


2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 3159-3188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Huang ◽  
W. F. Yang ◽  
L. Chen

Abstract. Doubtlessly, global climate change and its impacts have caught increasing attention from all sectors of the society world-widely. Among all those affected aspects, hydrological circle has been found rather sensitive to climate change. Climate change, either as the result or as the driving-force, has intensified the uneven distribution of water resources in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River basin, China. In turn, drought and flooding problems have been aggravated which has brought new challenges to current hydraulic works such as dike or reservoirs which were designed and constructed based on the historical hydrological characteristics, yet has been significantly changed due to climate change impact. Thus, it is necessary to consider the climate change impacts in basin planning and water resources management, currently and in the future. To serve such purpose, research has been carried out on climate change impact on water resources (and hydrological circle) in Changjiang River. The paper presents the main findings of the research, including main findings from analysis of historical hydro-meteorological data in Changjiang River, and runoff change trends in the future using temperature and precipitation predictions calculated based on different emission scenarios of the 24 Global Climate Modes (GCMs) which has been used in the 4th IPCC assessment report. In this research, two types of macro-scope statistical and hydrological models were developed to simulate runoff prediction. Concerning the change trends obtained from the historical data and the projection from GCMs results, the trend of changes in water resources impacted by climate change was analyzed for Changjiang River. Uncertainty of using the models and data were as well analyzed.


2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 3591-3614 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. A. Islam ◽  
M. A. Bari ◽  
A. H. M. F. Anwar

Abstract. Reduction of rainfall and runoff in recent years across southwest Western Australia (SWWA) has attracted attention to the climate change impact on water resources and water availability in this region. In this paper, the hydrologic impact of climate change on the Murray–Hotham catchment in SWWA has been investigated using a multi-model ensemble approach through projection of rainfall and runoff for the periods mid (2046–2065) and late (2081–2100) this century. The Land Use Change Incorporated Catchment (LUCICAT) model was used for hydrologic modelling. Model calibration was performed using (5 km) grid rainfall data from the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). Downscaled and bias-corrected rainfall data from 11 general circulation models (GCMs) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios A2 and B1 was used in LUCICAT model to derive rainfall and runoff scenarios for 2046–2065 (mid this century) and 2081–2100 (late this century). The results of the climate scenarios were compared with observed past (1961–1980) climate. The mean annual rainfall averaged over the catchment during recent time (1981–2000) was reduced by 2.3% with respect to the observed past (1961–1980) and the resulting runoff reduction was found to be 14%. Compared to the past, the mean annual rainfall reductions, averaged over 11 ensembles and over the period for the catchment for A2 scenario are 13.6 and 23.6% for mid and late this century respectively while the corresponding runoff reductions are 36 and 74%. For B1 scenario, the rainfall reductions were 11.9 and 11.6% for mid and late this century and the corresponding runoff reductions were 31 and 38%. Spatial distribution of rainfall and runoff changes showed that the rate of changes were higher in high rainfall areas compared to low rainfall areas. Temporal distribution of rainfall and runoff indicate that high rainfall events in the catchment reduced significantly and further reductions are projected, resulting in significant runoff reductions. A catchment scenario map has been developed by plotting decadal runoff reduction against corresponding rainfall reduction at four gauging stations for the observed and projected periods. This could be useful for planning future water resources in the catchment. Projection of rainfall and runoff made based on the GCMs varied significantly for the time periods and emission scenarios. Hence, the considerable uncertainty involved in this study though ensemble mean was used to explain the findings.


Author(s):  
zhen wang ◽  
Meixue Yang ◽  
xuejia wang ◽  
lizhen cheng ◽  
guoning wan ◽  
...  

Climate changes may pose challenges to water management. Simulation and projection of climate-runoff processes through hydrological models are essential means to assess the impact of global climate change on runoff variations. This study focuses on the upper Taohe River Basin which is an important water sources for arid and semi-arid regions in Northwest China. In order to assess the impacts of environmental changes, outputs from a regional climate model and the SWAT hydrological model were used to analyze the future climate change scenarios to water resources quantitatively. The examined climate changes scenarios results showed that average annual temperature from 2020 to 2099 in this area exhibits a consistent warming trend with different warming rates, at rates of 0.10°C/10a, 0.20°C /10a and 0.54°C /10a under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5(Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), The value of precipitation experiences different trends under different emission scenarios. Under the RCP2.6, average precipitation would decrease at a rate of 3.69 mm/10a, while under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, it would increase at rates of 4.97 mm/10a and 12.28 mm/10a, respectively. The calibration and validation results in three in-site observations (Luqu, Xiabagou and Minxian) in the upper Taohe River Basin showed that SWAT hydrological model is able to produce an acceptable simulation of runoff at monthly time-step. In response to future climate changes, projected runoff change would present different decreasing trends. Under RCP2.6, annual average runoff would experience a progress of fluctuating trend, with a rate of-0.6×108m3 by 5-year moving average method; Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, annual average runoff would show steadily increasing trends, with rates of 0.23×108m3 and 0.16×108m3 by 5-year moving average method. The total runoff in the future would prone to drought and flood disasters. Overall, this research results would provide a scientific reference for reginal water resources management on the long term.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beyza Özel ◽  
Yasemin Demir ◽  
Oğuz Başkan ◽  
Emre Alp

<p>Water, energy and food nexus is an integrated framework suggests that the security of one resource is inevitably linked to another’s. Water availability assures healthy food production whereas agriculture is the dominant user of global freshwater. Water stress due to population growth, climate change or malpractices threatens food security. Within the scope of water for food governance, the water efficiency of agricultural irrigation has to be improved to aid sustainable water and agricultural management. The study investigates water availability and withdrawals, evaluates water resources management scenarios in the agricultural sector in the Sakarya River Basin, Turkey’s third-largest river basin. Demand-oriented management scenarios propose a variety of technical measures which include improvements in irrigation technology, shifts in the cropping pattern and water-saving irrigation strategies. The effectiveness of scenarios was evaluated using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system developed for the upper sub-basin where significant agricultural activities are held with approximately 1 million ha of total effective arable land. WEAP is an integrated water resources system modeling that operates based on the principle of water balance accounting. A climate data set of precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were applied across each sub-basin, partitioned into land-use classes. A one dimensional, two-bucket model for each land-use class transmits water as surface runoff, interflow, percolation, baseflow and evapotranspiration components. The model was calibrated and validated for observed streamflow, reservoir volume, and irrigation water amount. The mean annual precipitation and evapotranspiration in the upper sub-basin are 387 mm/a and 245 mm/a respectively. Agriculture is the dominant user of both surface water and groundwater resources and accounts for the %88 of total water withdrawals in the upper sub-basin. Impacts of agricultural management on irrigation water supply and flow dynamics of streamflow gauges were evaluated upon each measure. When compared to a historic baseline scenario, efficient management measures can save irrigation water up to %10 by shifting crop patterns from sunflower to safflower, %6 by establishing drip irrigation instead of sprinkler, %4 by applying deficient irrigation on cereal cultivated areas. Furthermore, mean streamflow increases by %8 in June where deficient irrigation strategy is practiced on cereals, by %9 in October where cropping pattern is shifted from sunflower to safflower. After a review of various technical measures related to the efficient management of water resources, the study concluded that sustainable agricultural development is possible by adapting conservative agricultural practices that assure water and food security.</p>


2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. 01023
Author(s):  
Yu Wang ◽  
Bojun Liu ◽  
Shaoming Peng ◽  
Siyu Cai ◽  
Dawei Zhang

The concept of water resources operation is expatiated and classified and the theories and methods with regard to water resources operation are also summarized. Research progress of water resources operation exists to analyse the problems and to take a look to the future of research directions in the field of water resources operation. In conclusion, the research on water resources operation needs a combination with the actual state of projects, climate change and increasing human activities, actually considering water resources demands and employing uniform control of water quantity and quality, which could ensure the sustainable utilization of water resources in China.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariusz Adynkiewicz-Piragas ◽  
Bartłomiej Miszuk

Water resources are one of the most important issues affected by climate change. Climate scenarios show that in the upcoming decades, further climate change can occur. It concerns especially air temperature and sunshine duration, whose prognosis indicates a significant rising trend till the end of the century. The goal of the paper was the evaluation of water resources and hydropower production in the future, depending on climate scenarios with a consideration of risk analysis. The analysis was carried out on the basis of observation data for the Lusatian Neisse river basin (Poland) for 1971–2015 and climate projections till 2100 for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathways) scenarios. The results of the research showed that, especially in terms of RCP8.5, very high risk of decrease in water resources and hydropower production is expected in the future. Therefore, recommendations for mitigation of the possible effects are presented.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 303
Author(s):  
Ruirui Xu ◽  
Peng Gao ◽  
Xingmin Mu ◽  
Chaojun Gu

Evapotranspiration is a key process between the atmospheric hydrological cycle and the energy cycle, which has a great significance in understanding climate change and the rational use of water resources, especially for the Weihe River basin (WRB) (a basin in China experiencing a shortage of water resources). We investigated the spatial-temporal change of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) based on the daily meteorological variables of 22 meteorological stations and the annual streamflow of three hydrological stations from 1970 to 2018 in the WRB. The contributions of key meteorological variables to ETa changes and the sensitivity coefficient are also quantified. The temporal trends of ETa showed an increasing trend from 1970 to 2018, and the spatial distribution of ETa increased from northwest to southeast in the WRB. Increasing trends were detected in the multi-year average, spring, and winter, but only a few stations passed the significance test. Summer and autumn showed a decreasing trend, but this trend was not significant. Solar radiation is the most sensitive meteorological variable, followed by vapor pressure, wind speed, and mean temperature. Vapor pressure contributes the most to ETa changes, followed by solar radiation. In general, vapor pressure (relative humidity) is the dominant meteorological factor affecting ETa in the WRB. In addition to meteorological factors, the ETa is also affected by combined and complicated factors caused by precipitation and human activities. As an important part of the hydrological cycle, ETa has important research significance for water resources management, economy, agriculture, and ecology and results of this study may be helpful to further clarify the climate change and human activities impacts on the basin hydrological cycle.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-134
Author(s):  
A. B. Adegbehin ◽  
E. O. Iguisi ◽  
Y. O. Yusuf ◽  
C. K. Dauda

The focus of this empirical study is to investigate the trends of some hydro metrological parameters and Impact Vulnerability Status (IVS) of irrigation water resources on rice and tomato production in the downstream of Tiga station. Investigation was conducted using data on rainfall, temperature, evaporation and reservoir water level for 30 years in Tiga station. The data collected was used to show the trend fluctuations of each parameter for the period of study. The rainfall data was also used to analyze the Normalized Rainfall Index (NRI) in order to know periods of surplus, deficit and optimal water availability as against the required water for rice and tomato production. The rainfall pattern and water level showed increasing trend while temperature and evaporation showed a general decrease in trend. The NRI used to investigate the IVS in Tiga station downstream revealed that rice and tomato were not vulnerable to drought and flooding for 18 years while every other years were vulnerable or slightly vulnerable. However, only year 1993 appears to be very wet and highly susceptible to flooding. Findings from focus group revealed that 80% of the farmers reported floods occurrences during rainy season and deficit of water between January and March of each year. In conclusion, the IVS of farmers to climate change revealed periods of deficit, optimal and excess water availability for rice and tomato production and their vulnerability status. It was recommended that the government should strengthen laws and policies relevant in addressing climate change


Author(s):  
Sunil Londhe

Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity and evidence shows possibility of shifts in earth's climate. Concern over the potential effects of long-term climatic change on agriculture has been raised over the past decade. Change in the climatic conditions on the globe created threat to the availability water for agriculture production. The present chapter is an attempt to distil what is known about the likely effects of climate change on water availability to agriculture for food security and nutrition in coming decades. Apart from few exceptions, the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture water resources in the future are not understood in any great depth. There are many uncertainties as to how changes in various environmental parameters will interact with the availability of water and further agriculture production. The future consequences of water resources on agriculture are discussed and summarized. Possible mitigation and adaptations to changing water availability for agriculture are also discusses.


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