scholarly journals Established the first clinical prediction model regarding the risk of hyperuricemia in IgA nephropathy

Author(s):  
Yin-Hong Geng ◽  
Zhe Zhang ◽  
Jun-Jun Zhang ◽  
Bo Huang ◽  
Zui-Shuang Guo ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective. To construct a novel nomogram model that predicts the risk of hyperuricemia incidence in IgA nephropathy (IgAN) . Methods. Demographic and clinicopathological characteristics of 1184 IgAN patients in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University Hospital were collected. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were used to screen out hyperuricemia risk factors. The risk factors were used to establish a predictive nomogram model. The performance of the nomogram model was evaluated using an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and a decision curve analysis. Results. Independent predictors for hyperuricemia incidence risk included sex, hypoalbuminemia, hypertriglyceridemia, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), 24-hour urinaryprotein (24h TP), Gross and tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis (T). The nomogram model exhibited moderate prediction ability with an AUC of 0.834 ((95% CI 0.804–0.864)). The AUC from validation reached 0.787 (95% CI 0.736-0.839). The decision curve analysis displayed that the hyperuricemia risk nomogram was clinically applicable.Conclusion. Our novel and simple nomogram containing 8 factors may be useful in predicting hyperuricemia incidence risk in IgAN.

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Yu Yu ◽  
Jialiang Ren ◽  
Yushan Jia ◽  
Hui Wu ◽  
Guangming Niu ◽  
...  

ObjectivesTo evaluate the predictive value of radiomics features based on multiparameter magnetic resonance imaging (MP-MRI) for peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) in patients with ovarian cancer (OC).MethodsA total of 86 patients with epithelial OC were included in this retrospective study. All patients underwent FS-T2WI, DWI, and DCE-MRI scans, followed by total hysterectomy plus omentectomy. Quantitative imaging features were extracted from preoperative FS-T2WI, DWI, and DCE-MRI images, and feature screening was performed using a minimum redundancy maximum correlation (mRMR) and least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) methods. Four radiomics models were constructed based on three MRI sequences. Then, combined with radiomics characteristics and clinicopathological risk factors, a multi-factor Logistic regression method was used to construct a radiomics nomogram, and the performance of the radiomics nomogram was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.ResultsThe radiomics model from the MP-MRI combined sequence showed a higher area under the curve (AUC) than the model from FS-T2WI, DWI, and DCE-MRI alone (0.846 vs. 0.762, 0.830, 0.807, respectively). The radiomics nomogram (AUC=0.902) constructed by combining radiomics characteristics and clinicopathological risk factors showed a better diagnostic effect than the clinical model (AUC=0.858) and the radiomics model (AUC=0.846). The decision curve analysis shows that the radiomics nomogram has good clinical application value, and the calibration curve also proves that it has good stability.ConclusionRadiomics nomogram based on MP-MRI combined sequence showed good predictive accuracy for PC in patients with OC. This tool can be used to identify peritoneal carcinomatosis in OC patients before surgery.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Chunfeng Xi ◽  
Caimei Wang ◽  
Guihong Rong ◽  
Jinhuan Deng

Objective. To construct a novel nomogram model that predicts the risk of diabetic nephropathy (DN) incidence in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods. Questionnaire surveys, physical examinations, routine blood tests, and biochemical index evaluations were conducted on 1095 patients with T2DM from Guilin. A least absolute contraction selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to screen out DN risk factors. A logistic regression analysis incorporating the screened risk factors was used to establish a predictive nomogram model. The performance of the nomogram model was evaluated using the C-index, an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and a decision curve analysis. Bootstrapping was applied for internal validation. Results. Independent predictors for DN incidence risk included gender, age, hypertension, medicine use, duration of diabetes, body mass index, blood urea nitrogen level, serum creatinine level, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, and red blood cell distribution width. The nomogram model exhibited moderate prediction ability with a C-index of 0.819 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.783–0.853) and an AUC of 0.813 (95%CI: 0.778–0.848). The C-index from internal validation reached 0.796 (95%CI: 0.763–0.829). The decision curve analysis displayed that the DN risk nomogram was clinically applicable when the risk threshold was between 1 and 83%. Conclusion. Our novel and simple nomogram containing 10 factors may be useful in predicting DN incidence risk in T2DM patients.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. e0251048
Author(s):  
Danilo Candido de Almeida ◽  
Maria do Carmo Pinho Franco ◽  
Davi Rettori Pardo dos Santos ◽  
Marina Colella Santos ◽  
Isabela Soucin Maltoni ◽  
...  

Background COVID-19 is a multisystemic disorder that frequently causes acute kidney injury (AKI). However, the precise clinical and biochemical variables associated with AKI progression in patients with severe COVID-19 remain unclear. Methods We performed a retrospective study on 278 hospitalized patients who were admitted to the ward and intensive care unit (ICU) with COVID-19 between March 2020 and June 2020, at the University Hospital, São Paulo, Brazil. Patients aged ≥ 18 years with COVID-19 confirmed on RT-PCR were included. AKI was defined according to the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria. We evaluated the incidence of AKI, several clinical variables, medicines used, and outcomes in two sub-groups: COVID-19 patients with AKI (Cov-AKI), and COVID-19 patients without AKI (non-AKI). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. Results First, an elevated incidence of AKI (71.2%) was identified, distributed across different stages of the KDIGO criteria. We further observed higher levels of creatinine, C-reactive protein (CRP), leukocytes, neutrophils, monocytes, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in the Cov-AKI group than in the non-AKI group, at hospital admission. On univariate analysis, Cov-AKI was associated with older age (>62 years), hypertension, CRP, MCV, leucocytes, neutrophils, NLR, combined hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin treatment, use of mechanical ventilation, and vasoactive drugs. Multivariate analysis showed that hypertension and the use of vasoactive drugs were independently associated with a risk of higher AKI in COVID-19 patients. Finally, we preferentially found an altered erythrocyte and leukocyte cellular profile in the Cov-AKI group compared to the non-AKI group, at hospital discharge. Conclusions In our study, the development of AKI in patients with severe COVID-19 was related to inflammatory blood markers and therapy with hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin, with vasopressor requirement and hypertension considered potential risk factors. Thus, attention to the protocol, hypertension, and some blood markers may help assist doctors with decision-making for the management of COVID-19 patients with AKI.


2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 681-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomislav Pejovic ◽  
Miroslav Stojadinovic

Introduction. Accurate precholecystectomy detection of concurrent asymptomatic common bile duct stones (CBDS) is key in the clinical decision-making process. The standard preoperative methods used to diagnose these patients are often not accurate enough. Objective. The aim of the study was to develop a scoring model that would predict CBDS before open cholecystectomy. Methods. We retrospectively collected preoperative (demographic, biochemical, ultrasonographic) and intraoperative (intraoperative cholangiography) data for 313 patients at the department of General Surgery at Gornji Milanovac from 2004 to 2007. The patients were divided into a derivation (213) and a validation set (100). Univariate and multivariate regression analysis was used to determine independent predictors of CBDS. These predictors were used to develop scoring model. Various measures for the assessment of risk prediction models were determined, such as predictive ability, accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration and clinical utility using decision curve analysis. Results. In a univariate analysis, seven risk factors displayed significant correlation with CBDS. Total bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase and bile duct dilation were identified as independent predictors of choledocholithiasis. The resultant total possible score in the derivation set ranged from 7.6 to 27.9. Scoring model shows good discriminatory ability in the derivation and validation set (AUC 94.3 and 89.9%, respectively), excellent accuracy (95.5%), satisfactory calibration in the derivation set, similar Brier scores and clinical utility in decision curve analysis. Conclusion. Developed scoring model might successfully estimate the presence of choledocholithiasis in patients planned for elective open cholecystectomy.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S457-S457
Author(s):  
Henry Pablo Lopes Campos e Reis ◽  
Ana Beatriz Ferreira Rodrigues ◽  
Julio César Castro Silva ◽  
Lia Pinheiro de Lima ◽  
Talita Lima Quinaher ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Enterobacteria and multidrug-resistant non-fermenting Gram-negative bacilli present a challenge in the management of invasive infections, leading to mortality rates due to their limited therapeutic arsenal. The objective of this work was to analyze risk factors that may be associated with these infections, for a better situational mapping and assertive decision-making in a university hospital in Brazil. Methods The study was conducted between January and September 2019, with 167 patients in contact isolation at a university hospital in Brazil. Potential outcome-related variables for wide-resistance Gram-negative bacteria (BGN) infections were evaluated. Risk factors were identified from univariate statistical analysis using Fisher’s test. Results 51 (30.5%) out of 167 patients in contact isolation evolved with wide-resistance BGN infection. Risk factors in univariate analysis were age, hospital unit and previous use of invasive devices. Patients aged up to 59 years were more likely to progress to infection than those aged over 60 years (p 0.0274, OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.5). Those admitted to the oncohematology (p < 0.001, OR 32.5, Cl 9.1-116.3) and intensive care unit (p < 0.001, OR 28.0, Cl 3.5-225.9) units were more likely to develop this type of infection. The least likely were those admitted to a kidney transplant unit (p 0.0034, OR 15.33, Cl 1.8-131.0). Prior use of mechanical ventilation (p 0.0058, OR 12.2, Cl 2.0-76.1) and delayed bladder catheter (p 0.0266, OR 5.0, Cl 1.2-20.1) in patients with respiratory and urinary tract infection, respectively, were also reported as risk factors related to these infections. The gender of the patients was not significant for the study. Conclusion This study determined that variables such as age, hospitalization unit, use of mechanical ventilation and delayed bladder catheter could be considered important risk factors in triggering the infectious process by wide-resistant gram-negative bacteria. Thus, the analysis of these factors becomes a great foundation to prevent the development of multiresistant pathogens through prevention strategies, prophylaxis management and more targeted empirical therapies. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures


2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 467-474
Author(s):  
Paulo Sérgio Lucas da Silva ◽  
Maria Eunice Reis ◽  
Thais Suelotto Machado Fonseca ◽  
Marcelo Cunio Machado Fonseca

Purpose: Reintubation following unplanned extubation (UE) is often required and associated with increased morbidity; however, knowledge of risk factors leading to reintubation and subsequent outcomes in children is still lacking. We sought to determine the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes related to reintubation after UEs. Methods: All mechanically ventilated children were prospectively tracked for UEs over a 7-year period in a pediatric intensive care unit. For each UE event, data associated with reintubation within 24 hours and outcomes were collected. Results: Of 757 intubated patients, 87 UE occurred out of 11 335 intubation days (0.76 UE/100 intubation days), with 57 (65%) requiring reintubation. Most of the UEs that did not require reintubation were already weaning ventilator settings prior to UE (73%). Univariate analysis showed that younger children (<1 year) required reintubation more frequently after an UE. Patients experiencing UE during weaning experienced significantly fewer reintubations, whereas 90% of patients with full mechanical ventilation support required reintubation. Logistic regression revealed that requirement of full ventilator support (odds ratio: 37.5) and a COMFORT score <26 (odds ratio: 5.5) were associated with UE failure. There were no differences between reintubated and nonreintubated patients regarding the length of hospital stay, ventilator-associated pneumonia rate, need for tracheostomy, and mortality. Cardiovascular and respiratory complications were seen in 33% of the reintubations. Conclusion: The rate of reintubation is high in children experiencing UE. Requirement of full ventilator support and a COMFORT score <26 are associated with reintubation. Prospective research is required to better understand the reintubation decisions and needs.


Medicina ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 48 (8) ◽  
pp. 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Greta Gailienė ◽  
Zita Gierasimovič ◽  
Daiva Petruševičienė ◽  
Aušra Macijauskienė

The aim of the study was to evaluate the prevalence of health care-associated infections, risk factors, and antimicrobial use. Material and Methods. The study was carried out as a point-prevalence study in acute care wards, i.e., intensive care, surgical, and medical wards, at Vilnius University Hospital Santariškių Klinikos in April 2010. The study variables included the patient’s general data, indwelling devices, surgery, infection and its microbiological investigation, and antimicrobial use. All the variables that were logically related or had a P value of <0.25 in the univariate analysis were included in the stepwise logistic regression in order to study the factors potentially associated with health careassociated infections. Results. A total of 731 patients were surveyed. The overall prevalence rate of health care-associated infections was 3.8%. The prevalence of health care-associated infections differed by hospital wards (range 0.0%–19.2%). The lower respiratory tract (32.2%), urinary tract (28.5%), and surgical site infections (32.1%) were the most common health care-associated infections. Moreover, 89.3% of the cases of health care-associated infections were microbiologically investigated. Staphylococcus aureus (28.6%) and Escherichia coli (19.1%) were the most frequently isolated microorganisms. The use of one or more invasive devices was recorded in 332 patients (45.4%). Of the surveyed patients, 20.2% received antimicrobial agents. The most commonly prescribed antimicrobial agents were fluoroquinolones (21.1%), broad-spectrum penicillins (19.1%), and first- or second-generation cephalosporins (18.6%). Conclusions. The prevalence of health care-associated infections was found to be similar to the reported overall prevalence rate of health care-associated infections in acute care hospitals in Lithuania.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Ruohui Mo ◽  
Rong Shi ◽  
Yuhong Hu ◽  
Fan Hu

Objectives. This study is aimed at developing a risk nomogram of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in a Chinese population with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods. A questionnaire survey, biochemical indicator examination, and physical examination were performed on 4170 T2DM patients, and the collected data were used to evaluate the DR risk in T2DM patients. By operating R software, firstly, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used to optimize variable selection by running cyclic coordinate descent with 10 times K cross-validation. Secondly, multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build a predicting model introducing the predictors selected from the LASSO regression analysis. The nomogram was developed based on the selected variables visually. Thirdly, calibration plot, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis were used to validate the model, and further assessment was running by external validation. Results. Seven predictors were selected by LASSO from 19 variables, including age, course of disease, postprandial blood glucose (PBG), glycosylated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), uric creatinine (UCR), urinary microalbumin (UMA), and systolic blood pressure (SBP). The model built by these 7 predictors displayed medium prediction ability with the area under the ROC curve of 0.700 in the training set and 0.715 in the validation set. The decision curve analysis curve showed that the nomogram could be applied clinically if the risk threshold is between 21% and 57% and 21%-51% in external validation. Conclusion. Introducing age, course of disease, PBG, HbA1c, UCR, UMA, and SBP, the risk nomogram is useful for prediction of DR risk in T2DM individuals.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Mongodi ◽  
Gaia Ottonello ◽  
Raffaelealdo Viggiano ◽  
Paola Borrelli ◽  
Simona Orcesi ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Children require anesthesia for MRI to maintain immobility and reduce discomfort; clear indications about the best anesthesiologic management are lacking and each center developed its own protocol. Moreover, children with neuropsychiatric disorders more likely require sedation and are described in literature as more prone to general and respiratory complications. Aim of this study was to analyze the applicability of a sevoflurane-based approach, to describe general and respiratory complications and to identify risk factors in a pediatric neuropsychiatric population. Methods Retrospective cohort study, university Hospital (January 2007–December 2016). All the 1469 anesthesiologic records of children addressed from Neuropsychiatric Unit to undergo MRI under general anesthesia were analyzed; 12 patients equal or older than 18-year-old were excluded. We identified post-hoc nine macro-categories: static encephalopathies, metabolic/evolutive encephalopathies, epileptic encephalopathies, neuromuscular diseases, autistic spectrum disorders, migraine, psychiatric disorders, intellectual disabilities, others. A logistic regression model for events with low frequency (Firth’s penalized likelihood approach) was carried out to identify the mutually adjusted effect among endpoints (complications) and the independent variables chosen on the basis of statistical significance (univariate analysis, p ≤ 0.05) and clinical judgment. Results Of 1457 anesthesiologic records (age 4.0 (IQR 2.0 to 7.0) year-old, males 891 (61.2%), weight 17.0 (IQR 12.0 to 24.9) kg), 18 were cancelled for high anesthesiologic risk, 50 were cooperative, 1389 were anesthetized. A sevoflurane-based anesthesia was feasible in 92.3%; these patients required significantly less mechanical ventilation (8.6 vs. 16.2%; p = 0.012). Complications’ rate was low (6.2%; 3.1% respiratory). The risk for general complications increases with ASA score > 1 (OR 2.22, 95 CI% 1.30 to 3.77, p = 0.003), male sex (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.81, p = 0.025), multi-drug anesthesia (OR 2.98, 95 CI% 1.26 to 7.06, p = 0.013). For respiratory complications, it increases with ASA score > 1 (OR 2.34, 95 CI% 1.19 to 4.73, p = 0.017), autumn-winter (OR 2.01, 95 CI% 1.06 to 3.78, p = 0.030), neuromuscular disorders (OR 3.18, 95 CI% 1.20 to 8.41, p = 0.020). We had no major complications compromising patients’ outcome or requiring admission to ICU. Conclusions Sevoflurane anesthesia is feasible and safe for children affected by neuropsychiatric disorders undergoing MRI. Specific risk factors for general and respiratory complications should be considered.


2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
S Ranjit ◽  
B Bhattarai

Background Ventilator associated pneumonia is a major cause of morbidity in the intensive care unit. Difficulties in identification of the risk factors, in diagnosing and in prevention, have intensified the problem. Objectives To measure the incidence of ventilator associated pneumonia in intensive care unit and to identify the risk factors associated. Methods A prospective observational cohort study of 69 patients who were mechanically ventilated for more than 48 hours were evaluated to find out the development of nosocomial pneumonia and presence or absence of risk factors. Data were subjected to univariate analysis using chi-square and t-test. Level of significance was set at 0.05. Results Twenty two (31.88%) out of 69 patients developed ventilator associated pneumonia, majority of them between four days to 14 days. Reintubation, invasive lines, H2 blockers and low PaO2/FiO2 were identified as major risk factors in our study. Enteral feeding via nasogastric tube and use of steroids was not associated with development of ventilator associated pneumonia. The patients with ventilator associated pneumonia had significantly longer duration of mechanical ventilation (18.88±7.7 days vs 7.36±4.19 days) and stay (29±17.8 days vs 9.22±5.14 days). The morality was similar for both the groups with or without ventilator associated pneumonia. ConclusionThe incidence of ventilator pneumonia is high. Patients requiring prolonged ventilation, re-intubation, more invasive lines and H2 blockers, are at high risk and need special attention towards prevention.http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/kumj.v9i1.6258 Kathmandu Univ Med J 2011;9(1):28-31 


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