Vaccine Deployment and Ebola Transmission Dynamics Estimation in Eastern DR Congo

Simulating disease transmission dynamics at a multi-scale level

10.34196/ijm.00004 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 26-34 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Moshe B Hoshen ◽

Anthony H Burton ◽

Themis J V Bowcock

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Transmission Dynamics ◽

Scale Level ◽

Multi Scale

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Transmission Dynamics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3526307 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 53

Author(s):

Tao Liu ◽

Jianxiong Hu ◽

Min Kang ◽

Lifeng Lin ◽

Haojie Zhong ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Transmission Dynamics ◽

Novel Coronavirus

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Two mechanisms for accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 outbreaks in regions with high intensity of population and polluting industrialization: the air pollution-to-human and human-to-human transmission dynamics (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.19331 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mario Coccia

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Wind Speed ◽

Critical Role ◽

Meteorological Condition ◽

Meteorological Conditions ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Transmission Dynamics ◽

Critical Threshold ◽

Viral Infectivity ◽

Low Wind Speed

BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is viral infection that generates a severe acute respiratory syndrome with serious pneumonia that may result in progressive respiratory failure and death. OBJECTIVE This study has two goals. The first is to explain the main factors determining the diffusion of COVID-19 that is generating a high level of deaths. The second is to suggest a strategy to cope with future epidemic threats with of accelerated viral infectivity in society. METHODS Correlation and regression analyses on on data of N=55 Italian province capitals, and data of infected individuals at as of April 2020. RESULTS The main results are: o The accelerate and vast diffusion of COVID-19 in North Italy has a high association with air pollution. o Hinterland cities have average days of exceeding the limits set for PM10 (particulate matter 10 micrometers or less in diameter) equal to 80 days, and an average number of infected more than 2,000 individuals as of April 1st, 2020, coastal cities have days of exceeding the limits set for PM10 equal to 60 days and have about 700 infected in average. o Cities that average number of 125 days exceeding the limits set for PM10, last year, they have an average number of infected individual higher than 3,200 units, whereas cities having less than 100 days (average number of 48 days) exceeding the limits set for PM10, they have an average number of about 900 infected individuals. o The results reveal that accelerated transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in specific environments is due to two mechanisms given by: air pollution-to-human transmission and human-to-human transmission; in particular, the mechanisms of air pollution-to-human transmission play a critical role rather than human-to-human transmission. o The finding here suggests that to minimize future epidemic similar to COVID-19, the max number of days per year in which cities can exceed the limits set for PM10 or for ozone, considering their meteorological condition, is less than 50 days. After this critical threshold, the analytical output here suggests that environmental inconsistencies because of the combination between air pollution and meteorological conditions (with high moisture%, low wind speed and fog) trigger a take-off of viral infectivity (accelerated epidemic diffusion) with damages for health of population, economy and society. CONCLUSIONS Considering the complex interaction between air pollution, meteorological conditions and biological characteristics of viral infectivity, lessons learned for COVID-19 have to be applied for a proactive socioeconomic strategy to cope with future epidemics, especially an environmental policy based on reduction of air pollution mainly in hinterland zones of countries, having low wind speed, high percentage of moisture and fog that create an environment that can damage immune system of people and foster a fast transmission of viral infectivity similar to the COVID-19. CLINICALTRIAL not applicable

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Phylogenomic Evidence of Reinfection and Persistence of SARS-CoV-2: First Report from Colombia

Vaccines ◽

10.3390/vaccines9030282 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 282

Author(s):

Juan David Ramírez ◽

Marina Muñoz ◽

Nathalia Ballesteros ◽

Luz H. Patiño ◽

Sergio Castañeda ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Viral Persistence ◽

Transmission Dynamics ◽

Polymorphism Analysis ◽

Rt Pcr ◽

Paired Samples ◽

Infection Dynamics ◽

Oxford Nanopore ◽

Novel Variants ◽

First Time ◽

Oxford Nanopore Technologies

The continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and the emergence of novel variants have raised concerns about possible reinfection events and potential changes in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics. Utilizing Oxford Nanopore technologies, we sequenced paired samples of three patients with positive RT-PCR results in a 1–2-month window period, and subsequent phylogenetics and genetic polymorphism analysis of these genomes was performed. Herein, we report, for the first time, genomic evidence of one case of reinfection in Colombia, exhibiting different SARS-CoV-2 lineage classifications between samples (B.1 and B.1.1.269). Furthermore, we report two cases of possible viral persistence, highlighting the importance of deepening our understanding on the evolutionary intra-host traits of this virus throughout different timeframes of disease progression. These results emphasize the relevance of genomic surveillance as a tool for understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics, and how this may translate effectively to future control and mitigations efforts, such as the national vaccination program.

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Pharyngeal gonorrhoea in men who have sex with men

International Journal of STD & AIDS ◽

10.1177/0956462420975627 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 095646242097562

Author(s):

Daniel Richardson ◽

Alice Pickering ◽

Daniel Trotman ◽

Kayleigh Nichols ◽

Zoe Buss ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Antimicrobial Resistance ◽

Sore Throat ◽

Routine Screening ◽

Transmission Dynamics ◽

Hiv Status ◽

Sex With Men ◽

Culture Positive

Pharyngeal gonorrhoea is important in the transmission dynamics of gonorrhoea, and generation of antimicrobial resistance and the performing of culture remains vital. We reviewed the notes of men who have sex with men (MSM) presenting to our clinic with a positive pharyngeal NAAT for gonorrhoea between January and December 2019. There were 383 cases of NAAT-positive pharyngeal gonorrhoea, and 28 (7%, 95% CI = 5.11–10.36) reported sore throat at presentation. Pharyngeal cultures were taken from 270/383 (70%), and 73/270 (27%) were culture positive with available antimicrobial sensitivities. Overall, the presence of pharyngeal symptoms was not associated with pharyngeal chlamydia (OR = 1.6, CI = 0.19–13.32, p = 0.7), HIV status (OR = 1.1, CI = 0.47–2.57, p = 0.8), positive cultures (OR = 1.9, CI = 0.78–4.62, p = 0.2) or age ( p = 0.3). Routine screening of MSM for pharyngeal gonorrhoea is important to maintain surveillance and measures need to be taken to improve pharyngeal culture sampling from MSM.

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