Wind Power Ramp Characterisation and Forecasting Using Numerical Weather Prediction and Machine Learning Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Sharp ◽  
Hisham Ihshaish ◽  
J. Ignacio Deza
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Machine Learning Models

scholarly journals Numerical Weather Prediction and Artificial Neural Network Coupling for Wind Energy Forecast

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 338
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Donadio ◽  
Jiannong Fang ◽  
Fernando Porté-Agel
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Power Forecasting

In the past two decades, wind energy has been under fast development worldwide. The dramatic increase of wind power penetration in electricity production has posed a big challenge to grid integration due to the high uncertainty of wind power. Accurate real-time forecasts of wind farm power outputs can help to mitigate the problem. Among the various techniques developed for wind power forecasting, the hybridization of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and machine learning (ML) techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) are attracting many researchers world-wide nowadays, because it has the potential to yield more accurate forecasts. In this paper, two hybrid NWP and ANN models for wind power forecasting over a highly complex terrain are proposed. The developed models have a fine temporal resolution and a sufficiently large prediction horizon (>6 h ahead). Model 1 directly forecasts the energy production of each wind turbine. Model 2 forecasts first the wind speed, then converts it to the power using a fitted power curve. Effects of various modeling options (selection of inputs, network structures, etc.) on the model performance are investigated. Performances of different models are evaluated based on four normalized error measures. Statistical results of model predictions are presented with discussions. Python was utilized for task automation and machine learning. The end result is a fully working library for wind power predictions and a set of tools for running the models in forecast mode. It is shown that the proposed models are able to yield accurate wind farm power forecasts at a site with high terrain and flow complexities. Especially, for Model 2, the normalized Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error are obtained as 8.76% and 13.03%, respectively, lower than the errors reported by other models in the same category.

scholarly journals A Comprehensive Wind Power Forecasting System Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Numerical Weather Prediction

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branko Kosovic ◽  
Sue Ellen Haupt ◽  
Daniel Adriaansen ◽  
Stefano Alessandrini ◽  
Gerry Wiener ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Power Forecasting

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) recently updated the comprehensive wind power forecasting system in collaboration with Xcel Energy addressing users’ needs and requirements by enhancing and expanding integration between numerical weather prediction and machine-learning methods. While the original system was designed with the primary focus on day-ahead power prediction in support of power trading, the enhanced system provides short-term forecasting for unit commitment and economic dispatch, uncertainty quantification in wind speed prediction with probabilistic forecasting, and prediction of extreme events such as icing. Furthermore, the empirical power conversion machine-learning algorithms now use a quantile approach to data quality control that has improved the accuracy of the methods. Forecast uncertainty is quantified using an analog ensemble approach. Two methods of providing short-range ramp forecasts are blended: the variational doppler radar analysis system and an observation-based expert system. Extreme events, specifically changes in wind power due to high winds and icing, are now forecasted by combining numerical weather prediction and a fuzzy logic artificial intelligence system. These systems and their recent advances are described and assessed.

Characterizing future large, rapid changes in aggregated wind power using Numerical Weather Prediction spatial fields

Wind Energy ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 542-555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Cutler ◽  
Hugh R. Outhred ◽  
Iain F. MacGill ◽  
Merlinde J. Kay ◽  
Jeffrey D. Kepert
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Rapid Changes ◽  
Spatial Fields

scholarly journals Storm-Based Probabilistic Hail Forecasting with Machine Learning Applied to Convection-Allowing Ensembles

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 1819-1840 ◽  
Author(s):  
David John Gagne ◽  
Amy McGovern ◽  
Sue Ellen Haupt ◽  
Ryan A. Sobash ◽  
John K. Williams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Size Distribution ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Object Identification ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Probabilistic Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract Forecasting severe hail accurately requires predicting how well atmospheric conditions support the development of thunderstorms, the growth of large hail, and the minimal loss of hail mass to melting before reaching the surface. Existing hail forecasting techniques incorporate information about these processes from proximity soundings and numerical weather prediction models, but they make many simplifying assumptions, are sensitive to differences in numerical model configuration, and are often not calibrated to observations. In this paper a storm-based probabilistic machine learning hail forecasting method is developed to overcome the deficiencies of existing methods. An object identification and tracking algorithm locates potential hailstorms in convection-allowing model output and gridded radar data. Forecast storms are matched with observed storms to determine hail occurrence and the parameters of the radar-estimated hail size distribution. The database of forecast storms contains information about storm properties and the conditions of the prestorm environment. Machine learning models are used to synthesize that information to predict the probability of a storm producing hail and the radar-estimated hail size distribution parameters for each forecast storm. Forecasts from the machine learning models are produced using two convection-allowing ensemble systems and the results are compared to other hail forecasting methods. The machine learning forecasts have a higher critical success index (CSI) at most probability thresholds and greater reliability for predicting both severe and significant hail.

scholarly journals Hybrid Machine Learning for Solar Radiation Prediction in Reduced Feature Spaces

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (23) ◽  
pp. 7970
Author(s):  
Abdel-Rahman Hedar ◽  
Majid Almaraashi ◽  
Alaa E. Abdel-Hakim ◽  
Mahmoud Abdulrahim
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Hybrid Models ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Mean Square Errors ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Solar radiation prediction is an important process in ensuring optimal exploitation of solar energy power. Numerous models have been applied to this problem, such as numerical weather prediction models and artificial intelligence models. However, well-designed hybridization approaches that combine numerical models with artificial intelligence models to yield a more powerful model can provide a significant improvement in prediction accuracy. In this paper, novel hybrid machine learning approaches that exploit auxiliary numerical data are proposed. The proposed hybrid methods invoke different machine learning paradigms, including feature selection, classification, and regression. Additionally, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are used in the proposed hybrid models. Feature selection is used for feature space dimension reduction to reduce the large number of recorded parameters that affect estimation and prediction processes. The rough set theory is applied for attribute reduction and the dependency degree is used as a fitness function. The effect of the attribute reduction process is investigated using thirty different classification and prediction models in addition to the proposed hybrid model. Then, different machine learning models are constructed based on classification and regression techniques to predict solar radiation. Moreover, other hybrid prediction models are formulated to use the output of the numerical model of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) as learning elements in order to improve the prediction accuracy. The proposed methodologies are evaluated using a data set that is collected from different regions in Saudi Arabia. The feature-reduction has achieved higher classification rates up to 8.5% for the best classifiers and up to 15% for other classifiers, for the different data collection regions. Additionally, in the regression, it achieved improvements of average root mean square error up to 5.6% and in mean absolute error values up to 8.3%. The hybrid models could reduce the root mean square errors by 70.2% and 4.3% than the numerical and machine learning models, respectively, when these models are applied to some dataset. For some reduced feature data, the hybrid models could reduce the root mean square errors by 47.3% and 14.4% than the numerical and machine learning models, respectively.

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