The paper relevancy is determined by the need to substantiate the feasibility of restoring the ecosystem of the Sasyk estuary after its transformation into a reservoir (1978) and the unsuccessful desalination by the Danube waters for irrigation purposes. The paper is aimed at assessment of the possible inflow of fresh water to the Sasyk estuary from the Kohylnyk and Sarata rivers and their role in the formation of fresh water balance in the first half of the 21st century according to the climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The main calculation method is the ‘climate-runoff’ model, which uses meteorological data as input data. Estimates of freshwater inflow into the estuary-reservoir are provided for various calculation periods: before 1989 (before the beginning of significant climate change in the North-Western Black Sea Region); in the period of 1989-2018 according to the hydrometeorological observations; in 2021-2050, according to the averaged data from 14 runs of scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 under the EVRO-CORDEX project. Estimates of the average long-term values of freshwater inflow in natural conditions and the conditions transformed by water management activity were obtained for each calculation period. It is found that owing to changes in the regional climate for the period of 2021-2050, the total inflow of freshwater from rivers to the estuary in natural conditions will decrease by 23.5 % (by RCP4.5) and by 38.5 % (by RCP8.5) in comparison with the reference period (before 1989). Taking into account the impact of artificial reservoirs, the reduction in the river runoff will be 52.1 % (by RCP4.5) and 64.7 % (by RCP8.5). It is defined, that in case of renaturalization of the Sasyk reservoir into the estuary and the water inflow cut-off from the Danube river, the changes in climatic conditions expected in the first half of the 21st century, combined with water management activity, will result in the increased deficit of annual freshwater balance of the Sasyk reservoir up to 62 % under the RCP4.5 scenario and up to 75 % under the RCP8.5 scenario compared to the period before the emergence of climate change (before 1989). This change must be considered in scientific substantiation of the project on a reversion of the Sasyk Reservoir to the original status of the estuary to ensure such conditions of water exchange with the sea (for compensation of the water balance deficit), which will prevent the long-term trend of salinization.
IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF LONG TERM CLIMATE CHANGE ON REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND WATER MANAGEMENT IN NORTH DELTA
