scholarly journals A statistical bias correction technique for global climate model predicted near-surface temperature in India using the generalized regression neural network

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diljit Dutta ◽  
Rajib Kumar Bhattacharjya
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Generalized Regression Neural Network ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Statistical Bias ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Statistical Bias Correction

Abstract Global climate models (GCMs) developed by the numerical simulation of physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, and land are useful tools for climate prediction studies. However, these models involve parameterizations and assumptions for the simulation of complex phenomena, which lead to random and structural errors called biases. So, the GCM outputs need to be bias-corrected with respect to observed data before applying these model outputs for future climate prediction. This study develops a statistical bias correction approach using a four-layer feedforward radial basis neural network – a generalized regression neural network (GRNN) to reduce the biases of the near-surface temperature data in the Indian mainland. The input to the network is the CNRM-CM5 model output gridded data of near-surface temperature for the period 1951–2005, and the target to the model used for bias correcting the input data is the gridded near-surface temperature developed by the Indian Meteorological Department for the same period. Results show that the trained GRNN model can improve the inherent biases of the GCM modelled output with significant accuracy, and a good correlation is seen between the test statistics of observed and bias-corrected data for both the training and testing period. The trained GRNN model developed is then used for bias correction of CNRM-CM5 modelled projected near-surface temperature for 2006–2100 corresponding to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. It is observed that the model can adapt well to the nature of unseen future temperature data and correct the biases of future data, assuming quasi-stationarity of future temperature data for both emission scenarios. The model captures the seasonal variation in near-surface temperature over the Indian mainland, having diverse topography appreciably, and this is evident from the bias-corrected output.

scholarly journals Statistical bias correction of global climate projections – consequences for large scale modeling of flood flows

2012 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
pp. 75-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Eisner ◽  
F. Voss ◽  
E. Kynast
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Statistical Bias ◽  
Scale Modeling ◽  
Delta Change ◽  
Flood Flows ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Large Scale Modeling ◽  
Statistical Bias Correction

Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs) project an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events due to global climate change. This rather holds true for regions that are even expected to experience an overall decrease in average annual precipitation. Consequently, this may be attended by an increasing frequency and magnitude of flood events. However, time series of GCMs show a bias in simulating 20th century precipitation and temperature fields and, therefore, cannot directly be used to force hydrological models in order to assess the impact of the projected climate change on certain components of the hydrological cycle. For a posteriori correction, the so-called delta change approach is widely-used which adds the 30-year monthly differences for temperature or ratios for precipitation of the GCM data to each month of a historic climate data set. As the variability of the climate variables in the scenario period is not transferred, this approach is especially questionable if discharge extremes are to be analyzed. In order to preserve the variability given by the GCM, methods of statistical bias correction are applied. This study aims to investigate the impact of two methods of bias correction, the delta change approach and a statistical bias correction, on the large scale modeling of flood discharges, using the example of 25 macroscale catchments in Europe. The discharge simulation is carried out with the global integrated model WaterGAP3 (Water – Global Assessment and Prognosis). Results show that the two bias correction methods lead to distinctively different trends in future flood flows.

scholarly journals DINCAE 1.0: a convolutional neural network with error estimates to reconstruct sea surface temperature satellite observations

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1609-1622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Barth ◽  
Aida Alvera-Azcárate ◽  
Matjaz Licer ◽  
Jean-Marie Beckers
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Missing Data ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Function Decomposition ◽  
Surface Temperature Data

Abstract. A method to reconstruct missing data in sea surface temperature data using a neural network is presented. Satellite observations working in the optical and infrared bands are affected by clouds, which obscure part of the ocean underneath. In this paper, a neural network with the structure of a convolutional auto-encoder is developed to reconstruct the missing data based on the available cloud-free pixels in satellite images. Contrary to standard image reconstruction with neural networks, this application requires a method to handle missing data (or data with variable accuracy) in the training phase. The present work shows a consistent approach which uses the satellite data and its expected error variance as input and provides the reconstructed field along with its expected error variance as output. The neural network is trained by maximizing the likelihood of the observed value. The approach, called DINCAE (Data INterpolating Convolutional Auto-Encoder), is applied to a 25-year time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sea surface temperature data and compared to DINEOF (Data INterpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions), a commonly used method to reconstruct missing data based on an EOF (empirical orthogonal function) decomposition. The reconstruction error of both approaches is computed using cross-validation and in situ observations from the World Ocean Database. DINCAE results have lower error while showing higher variability than the DINEOF reconstruction.

A new approach for modeling near surface temperature lapse rate based on normalized land surface temperature data

2020 ◽  
Vol 242 ◽  
pp. 111746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Karimi Firozjaei ◽  
Solmaz Fathololoumi ◽  
Seyed Kazem Alavipanah ◽  
Majid Kiavarz ◽  
Ali Reza Vaezi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate ◽  
Surface Temperature Data

scholarly journals Impact of a Statistical Bias Correction on the Projected Hydrological Changes Obtained from Three GCMs and Two Hydrology Models

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 556-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Hagemann ◽  
Cui Chen ◽  
Jan O. Haerter ◽  
Jens Heinke ◽  
Dieter Gerten ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Statistical Bias ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Climate Model Output ◽  
Statistical Bias Correction

Abstract Future climate model scenarios depend crucially on the models’ adequate representation of the hydrological cycle. Within the EU integrated project Water and Global Change (WATCH), special care is taken to use state-of-the-art climate model output for impacts assessments with a suite of hydrological models. This coupling is expected to lead to a better assessment of changes in the hydrological cycle. However, given the systematic errors of climate models, their output is often not directly applicable as input for hydrological models. Thus, the methodology of a statistical bias correction has been developed for correcting climate model output to produce long-term time series with a statistical intensity distribution close to that of the observations. As observations, global reanalyzed daily data of precipitation and temperature were used that were obtained in the WATCH project. Daily time series from three GCMs (GCMs) ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled GCM, version 3 (CNRM-CM3), and the atmospheric component of the L’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL CM4) coupled model (called LMDZ-4)—were bias corrected. After the validation of the bias-corrected data, the original and the bias-corrected GCM data were used to force two global hydrology models (GHMs): 1) the hydrological model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-HM) consisting of the simplified land surface (SL) scheme and the hydrological discharge (HD) model, and 2) the dynamic global vegetation model called LPJmL. The impact of the bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes is analyzed, and the simulation results of the two GHMs are compared. Here, the projected changes in 2071–2100 are considered relative to 1961–90. It is shown for both GHMs that the usage of bias-corrected GCM data leads to an improved simulation of river runoff for most catchments. But it is also found that the bias correction has an impact on the climate change signal for specific locations and months, thereby identifying another level of uncertainty in the modeling chain from the GCM to the simulated changes calculated by the GHMs. This uncertainty may be of the same order of magnitude as uncertainty related to the choice of the GCM or GHM. Note that this uncertainty is primarily attached to the GCM and only becomes obvious by applying the statistical bias correction methodology.

scholarly journals Investigating statistical bias correction with temporal subsample of the upper Ping River Basin, Thailand

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srisunee Wuthiwongtyohtin
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Statistical Bias ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Nonparametric Transformation ◽  
Statistical Bias Correction

Abstract This study aims to investigate different statistical bias correction techniques to improve the output of a regional climate model (RCM) of daily rainfall for the upper Ping River Basin in Northern Thailand. Three subsamples are used for each bias correction method, which are (1) using full calibrated 30-year-period data, (2) seasonal subsampling, and (3) monthly subsampling. The bias correction techniques are classified into three groups, which are (1) distribution-derived transformation, (2) parametric transformation, and (3) nonparametric transformation. Eleven bias correction techniques with three different subsamples are used to derive transfer function parameters to adjust model bias error. Generally, appropriate bias correction methods with optimal subsampling are locally dependent and need to be defined specifically for a study area. The study results show that monthly subsampling would be well established by capturing the monthly mean variation after correcting the model's daily rainfall. The results also give the best-fitted parameter set of the different subsamples. However, applying the full calibrated data and the seasonal subsamples cannot substantially improve internal variability. Thus, the effect of internal climate variability of the study region is greater than the choice of bias correction methods. Of the bias correction approaches, nonparametric transformation performed best in correcting daily rainfall bias error in this study area as evaluated by statistics and frequency distributions. Therefore, using a combination of methods between the nonparametric transformation and monthly subsampling offered the best accuracy and robustness. However, the nonparametric transformation was quite sensitive to the calibration time period.

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