scholarly journals A system dynamics approach to food security: The case of Turkey

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 22-30
Author(s):  
Muhammed Çelik ◽  
◽  
Zehra Vildan Serin ◽  

Predicting a sustainable food safety policy for the near future is among Turkey's priority problems. In this context, this study aims to predict Turkey's sustainable food safety policies. For this reason, the system dynamics model, which is a dynamic cycle-based method with stock and flow diagrams, is used in this paper. This study supposed the six different scenarios for 2020 and 2050. Data were selected as population, productivity rate, arable land fertility rate, and annual food consumption (per capita). The purpose of creating these scenarios; To determine the most appropriate policy to ensure food safety in Turkey. In the first scenario, we assumed that the current situation continues. In the second scenario, the average productivity rate was increased by 1.5%. The third scenario assumes that annual per capita food consumption rises to 1.2 tonnes per year. In the fourth scenario, the total fertility rate is accelerated by 2%. In the fifth scenario, we assumed that the arable land loss rate decreased by 1/3. Finally, we assumed that the sixth scenario covers all the second, third, fourth, and fifth scenarios and that 2 points reduce food losses. In conclusion, the findings show that food security responds positively in scenarios 2 and 6. However, in other scenarios, food security is negatively affected. The findings show that the sixth scenario is the best-case scenario. To ensure food security, it is necessary to reduce arable land losses and food waste. Training farmers and control of the food supply chain will be beneficial for sustainable food security in Turkey. We recommend that policymakers consider these recommendations.

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (20) ◽  
pp. 5816 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dániel Fróna ◽  
János Szenderák ◽  
Mónika Harangi-Rákos

The aim of the present research is to provide a comprehensive review about the current challenges related to food security and hidden hunger. Issues are presented according to major factors, such as growing population, changing dietary habits, water efficiency, climate change and volatile food prices. These factors were compiled from reports of major international organizations and from relevant scientific articles on the subject. Collecting the results and presenting them in an accessible manner may provide new insight for interested parties. Accessibility of data is extremely important, since food security and its drivers form a closely interconnected but extremely complex network, which requires coordinated problem solving to resolve issues. According to the results, the demand for growing agricultural products has been partly met by increasing cultivated land in recent decades. At the same time, there is serious competition for existing agricultural areas, which further limits the extension of agricultural land in addition to the natural constraints of land availability. Agricultural production needs to expand faster than population growth without further damage to the environment. The driving force behind development is sustainable intensive farming, which means the more effective utilization of agricultural land and water resources. Current global trends in food consumption are unsustainable, analyzed in terms of either public health, environmental impacts or socio-economic costs. The growing population should strive for sustainable food consumption, as social, environmental and health impacts are very important in this respect as well. To this end, the benefits of consuming foods that are less harmful to the environment during production are also to be emphasized in the scope of consumption policy and education related to nutrition as opposed to other food types, the production of which causes a major demand for raw materials.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.38) ◽  
pp. 523
Author(s):  
Vladimir Alekseevich Solopov ◽  
Ivan Alekseevich Minakov

The aim of the study is to develop theoretical provisions and practical recommendations for solving the problem of food security in the production and consumption of vegetable products. During the research, the following methods were used: statistical-economic, monographic, economic-mathematical, computational-constructive. The article considers the problem of providing the Russian population with vegetable products, especially during the off-season. The actual consumption of vegetables is 112 kg per capita per year with a rational diet of 140 kg. In the food basket of Russians, imported vegetable products occupy a significant share. Analysis of the state and trends of development of vegetable growing in the open and sheltered ground is given. For 2000-2016, the gross harvest of vegetables increased from 10.8 to 16.3 mln. tons because of higher yields while decreasing the area of vegetable crops. In vegetable production structure, production of sheltered ground occupies 9.6%. The households of the population are the main producers of vegetables. They accounted for 66.5% of the gross harvest of vegetables. The volume of vegetable production and the main directions of its increase are justified. To ensure food security, it is necessary to increase the production of vegetables and food melon crops from 18.1 to 22.5 mln. tons, including vegetables from 16.3 to 20.3 mln. tons, food melon crops – 1.8 to 2.2 mln. tons. The increase in production of vegetable products will be facilitated by improvement of state support for vegetable growing and its increase in size, its concentration in specialized farms, intensification of the industry, the revival of Russian seed production of vegetable crops, construction of modern energy-saving greenhouses and modernization of the old ones, development of agro-industrial integration.  


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-34
Author(s):  
Ildikó Kovács

Long-term sustainability of food consumption is in the mainstream of the current trends in the production and consumption patterns of food. A growing number of analyses question this issue nowadays. Despite several papers investigating the profile of sustainable consumers, understanding of the determinants of consumer decision-making and intention towards sustainable food consumption needed further investigation. This study investigates the determinants of sustainable food and food safety on consumer behavior among young customers in Hungary. The objective of this paper is to explore the intention factors of food safety based on sustainable consumption patterns. To gain a better insight into sustainable consumption patterns, the research process was quantitative in nature.


Author(s):  
Tosin Kolajo Gbadegesin

Food security is of great importance in the politics of sustainable consumption and production (SCP) because of its implication on environment and people. The changing climate is adding to world resource problems such as food security, water scarcity, pollution, soil degradation, etc. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land use demand by agriculture has continued to influence what people quantity and quality of available food. This review used resources from all relevant literatures to examine impact of changing climate on sustainable food consumption by identifying effect of changing climate on nutrition, food production, and food consumption, and provides recommendations on sustainable food consumption measures. The review is of the opinion that food consumption patterns are changing in the face of population growth, economic development, and environmental challenges. Such shifts place increased pressure on already depleted natural resources due to the resource-intensive production and transportation requirements of these products.


2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-56
Author(s):  
Simona Nicoleta Stan ◽  
Străteanu Amalia-Gianina

Abstract In the current context, food safety crises often have a direct impact on the health of the European population. Such moments bring chaos and confusion among the population, about food consumption, food systems, the ethics of businesses involved in the agri-food chain, or about guaranteeing their consumers’ rights. Although the level of consumer information has increased in recent years, there is a need for a uniform approach to all topics of interest to them, from quality, cost, authenticity, maintenance of food safety, to contaminants and fraud. Choosing a diet generates multiple effects on the quality of human life. Europeans are concerned about how food products are produced and consumed and which are the short and long-term effects, with attention being shifted from providing sufficient food. However, food consumption patterns of European citizens often have negative health consequences, endangering the future and making it necessary to change the way we feed and consume them. From farms to restaurants, we need to redefine the assumed concept of adequate nutrition in the 21st century: sustainable diets from sustainable food systems.


Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1229
Author(s):  
Gabriel LaPlante ◽  
Sonja Andrekovic ◽  
Robert G. Young ◽  
Jocelyn M. Kelly ◽  
Niki Bennett ◽  
...  

Food security is a growing societal challenge. The pressure to feed a projected global population of 9.6 billion by 2050 will continue to be limited by decreasing arable land. The recent disruptions in international trade resulting from responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the importance of regional self-reliance in food production. While Canada is highly self-reliant in food categories such as meat and dairy, the nation relies heavily on international imports to fulfill fresh vegetable demands. In potential future scenarios where international trade faces disruptions, Canadian food security could be at risk. By providing local sources of fresh foods year-round, the greenhouse vegetable industry holds strong potential to overcome future food supply shortages and could become a critical contributor to self-sustainable food production in Canada. Many challenges, however, surround the Canadian greenhouse industry. Some challenges include the persistence and spread of infectious plant pathogens and forecasted labour shortages. Opportunities to alleviate such challenges include introducing more diverse commodity groups and integrating innovative technologies to accelerate efficiency within the industry. In this commentary, we examine the current state of the Canadian greenhouse industry, explore potential challenges, and highlight opportunities that could promote food security across the nation.


1999 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark W. Rosegrant ◽  
Nancy Leach ◽  
Roberta V. Gerpacio

Fundamental changes in the global structure of food demand will lead to an extra-ordinary increase in the importance of developing countries in global food markets. Economic growth in developing countries is changing consumption patterns, with slower growth (and in many countries actual declines) in per capita food consumption of grains and rapidly growing per capita and total meat consumption, combined with induced growth in cereal feed consumption. The present paper examines the hypothesis, suggested by some researchers, that high-meat diets in developed countries limit improvement in food security in developing countries. These analysts argue that reduced meat consumption in developed countries would release cereals from livestock feed to food for poorer populations, thus improving food security in developing countries. Using the International Food Policy Research Institute (Washington, DC, USA) global food projections model, the international model for policy analysis of agricultural com-modities and trade (see Rosegrant et al. 1995), we first analyse the implications for future global cereal and meat supply and demand resulting from changes in global income, population growth and other structural changes, then simulate alternative sce-narios to examine the effect of large reductions in meat consumption in developed coun-tries on food consumption and food security in developing countries. The paper shows that while the long-term prospects for food supply, demand and trade indicate a strength-ening of world cereal and livestock markets, the improvement in food security in the developing world will be slow, and changes in the dietary patterns in developed countries are not an effective route to improvement in food security in developing countries.


2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Achmad Nashar Setyabudi

The increase in population results in the emergence of problems to meet their food needs. In accordance with the problems faced, this study aims to analyze the profile of food independence at the research locus, and then formulate an alternative food development policy strategy at the research locus. This research was conducted in March-July 2015. The research locus was determined purposively, namely in Ketapang Regency. This study uses a type of research evaluation with descriptive presentation. The results showed that the amount of energy consumed by the population of Ketapang Regency reached 2,915 kcal / cap / day or 145.75 percent AKE (Energy Adequacy Rate). The availability of protein per capita reached 73.03 gr / capita / day or 146.06 percent from the National Standard. While the availability of fat is 58.07 gr / cap / day. The amount of fish consumption per capita is 35 kg / year, this realization is 90.91 percent of national fish consumption. To strengthen food security in Ketapang District, a model and strategy for food products is needed by integrating the utilization of all existing potential both in terms of natural resources, human resources, social affairs, cultural nobility and local wisdom and can solve the problems of food agribusiness that are faced from upstream to downstream, namely through: (1) Food Estate development carried out innovatively without limits in quantity and quality, (2) Maximizing the function of the Sustainable Food House Area (KRPL) as an innovative effort to use it and also replicating it. (3) To diversify in the food sector horizontally and vertically


2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 444-458
Author(s):  
Aduralere Oyelade ◽  
◽  
Onome Oghenetega ◽  
Favour Eforuoku ◽  
◽  
...  

The study investigated the impact of labour force participation rate and its implications on food security, fertility rate and economic growth in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). Using data from 6 countries over the period of 1990 tо 2016 and pool autoregressive dіstrіbutеd lаg (PАRDL) bоunds tеstіng рrосеdurе was employed. The result from the study showed that female labour force participation and health expenditure per capita determine food security and male labour force participation, female labour force participation, gross capita formation, health education per capita and enrolment in secondary education are the variables that determine fertility rate, while male labour force participation, female labour force participation, health expenditure per capita and enrolment in secondary education affect GDP per capita. The study recommended that policies should be directed toward increasing female labour force participation which will compliment male labour force participation as well as increase decent and productive work opportunities for female workers which will promote GDP per capita, leading to reduction in fertility rate and promote food security among member countries. Furthermore, family-friendly policies will further encourage females to participate in the labour market. Therefore, more efforts should be made to promote female labour force participation as the entire WAMZ countries will benefit from the growth and welfare improvement that it will generate. WAMZ countries governments need build their capacity through investment in health and education in order to enhance productivity of the labour force which will lead to economic growth, reduction in fertility rate as well as promote food security. This study has contributed empirically and theoretically to the body of knowledge. The scope covered also makes the study uniquely robust and different from previous ones.


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