scholarly journals Guidelines for model adaptation: a study of the transferability of a general seagrass ecosystem DBN model

Author(s):  
Paula Hatum ◽  
Kathryn McMahon ◽  
Kerrie Mengersen ◽  
Paul Wu

Ecological models are extensively and increasingly used in support of environmental policy and decision making. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) as a tool for conservation have been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for providing a systematic and intuitive approach to integrating data and other critical information to help guide the decision-making process. However, data for a new ecosystem are often sparse. In this case, a general DBN developed for similar ecosystems could be applicable, but this may require the adaptation of key elements of the network. The research presented in this paper focused on a case study to identify and implement guidelines for model adaptation. We adapted a general DBN of a seagrass ecosystem to a new location where nodes were similar, but the conditional probability tables varied. We focused on two species of seagrass (Zostera noltei and Z. marina) located in Arcachon Bay, France. Expert knowledge was used to complement peer-reviewed literature to identify which components needed adjustment including parameterisation and quantification of the model and desired outcomes. We adopted both linguistic labels and scenario-based elicitation to elicit from experts the conditional probabilities used to quantify the DBN. Following the proposed guidelines, the model structure of the DBN was retained, but the conditional probability tables were adapted for nodes that characterised the growth dynamics in Zostera spp. population located in Arcachon Bay, as well as the seasonal variation on their reproduction. Particular attention was paid to the light variable as it is a crucial driver of growth and physiology for seagrasses. Our guidelines provide a way to adapt a general DBN to specific ecosystems to maximise model reuse and minimise re-development effort. Especially important from a transferability perspective are guidelines for ecosystems with limited data, and how simulation and prior predictive approaches can be used in these contexts.

Author(s):  
E. D. Avedyan ◽  
Le Thi Trang Linh

The article presents the analytical results of the decision-making by the majority voting algorithm (MVA). Particular attention is paid to the case of an even number of experts. The conditional probabilities of the MVA for two hypotheses are given for an even number of experts and their properties are investigated depending on the conditional probability of decision-making by independent experts of equal qualifications and on their number. An approach to calculating the probabilities of the correct solution of the MVA with unequal values of the conditional probabilities of accepting hypotheses of each statistically mutually independent expert is proposed. The findings are illustrated by numerical and graphical calculations.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel B. Fitzgerald ◽  
David R. Smith ◽  
David C. Culver ◽  
Daniel Feller ◽  
Daniel W. Fong ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 2-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Geletič ◽  
Michal Lehnert

Abstract Stewart and Oke (2012) recently proposed the concept of Local Climate Zones (LCZ) to describe the siting of urban meteorological stations and to improve the presentation of results amongst researchers. There is now a concerted effort, however, within the field of urban climate studies to map the LCZs across entire cities, providing a means to compare the internal structure of urban areas in a standardised way and to enable the comparison of cities. We designed a new GIS-based LCZ mapping method for Central European cities and compiled LCZ maps for three selected medium-sized Central European cities: Brno, Hradec Králové, and Olomouc (Czech Republic). The method is based on measurable physical properties and a clearly defined decision-making algorithm. Our analysis shows that the decision-making algorithm for defining the percentage coverage for individual LCZs showed good agreement (in 79–89% of cases) with areas defined on the basis of expert knowledge. When the distribution of LCZs on the basis of our method and the method of Bechtel and Daneke (2012) was compared, the results were broadly similar; however, considerable differences occurred for LCZs 3, 5, 10, D, and E. It seems that Central European cities show a typical spatial pattern of LCZ distribution but that rural settlements in the region also regularly form areas of built-type LCZ classes. The delineation and description of the spatial distribution of LCZs is an important step towards the study of urban climates in a regional setting.


Vestnik ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 315-323
Author(s):  
Л.К. Кошербаева ◽  
З.Р. Сагындыкова ◽  
Т.Б. Егеубаев

В условиях ограниченных бюджетов для современного здравоохранения рациональное потребление ресурсов является очень актуальной проблемой. Оценка технологий здравоохранения (ДСТБ) - комплексная оценка относительно доказанной клинической и клинико-экономической (фармаколого-экономической) эффективности и безопасности технологий здравоохранения, а также экономических, социальных и этических последствий их применения. Цель оценки технологий здравоохранения-одобрение заявленных технологий здравоохранения и включение заявленных технологий здравоохранения в перечень компенсации и информирование политиков в области здравоохранения. Следует ли применять здоровье сберегающую технологию, как ее применять и какую пользу от нее получают пациенты. Обучение экспертным знаниям о выживаемости, диагностике и лечении болезней и болезней, в том числе о методе оказания помощи (для анализа затрат и выгод), бремени болезней, выявлении пробелов в уходе, выявлении и удовлетворении потребностей. Предоставление отзывов о лечении (или отсутствии лечения и поддержки) социальных последствий заболевания способствует подходу пациентов, процессу принятия решений по мере необходимости. In the context of limited budgets for modern healthcare, rational resource consumption is a very urgent problem. Health Technology Assessment (OST) - a comprehensive assessment of the relatively proven clinical and clinical- economic (pharmacological-economic) effectiveness and safety of health technologies, as well as the economic, social and ethical consequences of their use. The purpose of the health technology assessment is to approve the claimed health technologies and include the claimed health technologies in the compensation list and inform health policy makers. It shows whether healthcare technology should be used or not, how it should be used, and how patients can benefit from it. Providing expert knowledge on the pain and burden of living, diagnosis and treatment, including the method of providing assistance (to analyze costs and benefits), the burden of diseases, identifying gaps in care, identifying and meeting needs. Giving feedback on the treatment (or lack of treatment and support) of the social consequences of the disease contributes to the decision-making process depending on the patient's attitude, needs.


Author(s):  
Lidia Ogiela ◽  
Ryszard Tadeusiewicz ◽  
Marek R. Ogiela

This publication presents cognitive systems designed for analysing economic data. Such systems have been created as the next step in the development of classical DSS systems (Decision Support Systems), which are currently the most widespread tools providing computer support for economic decision-making. The increasing complexity of decision-making processes in business combined with increasing demands that managers put on IT tools supporting management cause DSS systems to evolve into intelligent information systems. This publication defines a new category of systems - UBMSS (Understanding Based Management Support Systems) which conduct in-depth analyses of data using on an apparatus for linguistic and meaning-based interpretation and reasoning. This type of interpretation and reasoning is inherent in the human way of perceiving the world. This is why the authors of this publication have striven to perfect the scope and depth of computer interpretation of economic information based on human processes of cognitive data analysis. As a result, they have created UBMSS systems for the automatic analysis and interpretation of economic data. The essence of the proposed approach to the cognitive analysis of economic data is the use of the apparatus for the linguistic description of data and for semantic analysis. This type of analysis is based on expectations generated automatically by a system which collects resources of expert knowledge, taking into account the information which can significantly characterise the analysed data. In this publication, the processes of classical data description and analysis are extended to include cognitive processes as well as reasoning and forecasting mechanisms. As a result of the analyses shown, we will present a new class of UBMSS cognitive economic information systems which automatically perform a semantic analysis of business data.


1993 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 417-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Limoges

There was a time when the mobilization of experts was a taken-for-granted, unproblematic aspect of decision-making processes. That confidence has vanished. Ascertaining the significance of expertise now requires a reconsideration of the dynamics of controversies. The current view still assimilates controversy to the medieval exercise of the disputatio in which two parties argue one against the other. A non-reductionist view is needed to take fully into account the diversity of worlds of relevance involved in the dynamics of any public controversy. Only then is it possible to understand how decision making is predicated upon associations of worlds of relevance, and how expertise is actually a collective learning process which sets the boundary conditions for the efficacy of individual experts.


2013 ◽  
Vol 694-697 ◽  
pp. 3522-3525 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Wen Huang ◽  
Zu Hua Jiang ◽  
Li Jun Liu

To organize the experts rationally and facilitate the sharing of expert knowledge, an expert knowledge map framework based on social network analysis (SNA) for ship-block scheduling is proposed. The function of expert knowledge map is analyzed, and the approaches of SNA based knowledge map building are introduced. Then, the network structure was analyzed quantitatively to find the factors that hold back the spreading and innovating of knowledge by SNA. The result indicates that SNA can offer the reliable basis on how to take strong measures to organize the experts, which can improve the expert knowledge map’s structure and the effectiveness of knowledge navigation and sharing.


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