scholarly journals Economic Growth and Socioeconomic Sustainability in BRICS Countries: A Vector Error Correction Modeling Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3(J)) ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Olawumi Dele Awolusi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Growth Policy

A major problem to the BRICS goal of achieving sustainable economic growth for members is the increasing level of socioeconomic inequality in the bloc. Consequently, the purpose of this study is to understand the influence of economic growth on socio-economic sustainability in the BRICS countries, using a yearly dataset from 1990 to 2019. A multivariate co-integration technique by Johansen and Juselius and Granger causality test were used to establish the relationships. Findings confirmed co-integration and short-run causal relationships. The most interesting results were the negative influence of economic growth on socio-economic inequality, tacit support for the resource curse hypothesis. The paper concluded that a common policy option was not possible and that for the block to pursue its economic prosperity goals without compromising individual countries' needs for socioeconomic sustainability, varied policy options were inevitable. The policy implications and recommendations are straightforward: the radical legal basis for the transition from natural resource export, as well as, sweeping regulation for the sustainable usage of natural resources protection, strict penalties on violations of environment-related laws and policies to enhance, general country-wide support. In addition, there may be an urgent need to define the active role of NGOs and other independent institutions in promoting socioeconomic equality (sustainability) practices and concepts at both local and national levels, enhanced social programs; market development, Integration of existing policies and creation of societal culture. Consequently, to the best of the researcher’s knowledge, no study has investigated comprehensibly (along with multiple determinants) the sustainability of growth policy options within BRICS with an aim to proposing socioeconomic sustainability and growth policy options.

scholarly journals Revisit coal consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth nexus in China and India using a newly developed bootstrap ARDL bound test

2017 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 450-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng-Li Lin ◽  
Roula Inglesi-Lotz ◽  
Tsangyao Chang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Coal Consumption ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
China And India ◽  
The Government ◽  
Bound Test

This study revisits coal consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth nexus for both China and India using a newly developed Bootstrap ARDL model over the period of 1969–2015. Empirical results indicate no long-run relationship among these three variables for both China and India, and Granger causality test based on Bootstrap ARDL model indicates a feedback between coal consumption and economic growth, between economic growth and CO2 emissions and between coal consumption and CO2 emissions in China. However, we find a one-way Granger causality running from coal consumption to economic growth and the feedback hypothesis is confirmed between economic growth and CO2 emissions and between coal consumption and CO2 emissions in India. The coefficients signal that coal consumption is an important factor towards the promotion economic growth in both China and India. For China, higher economic growth reduces CO2 emissions, while for India, it further increases CO2 emissions. Our empirical results have important policy implications for the government conducting effective energy polices to promote economic growth in both China and India.

scholarly journals Technology Innovation, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in the Context of Carbon Neutrality: Evidence from BRICS

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 11138
Author(s):  
Huan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Stirpat Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
The Impact

This study selects the panel data of five BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) from 1990 to 2019 to empirically explore the impact of technological innovation and economic growth on carbon emissions under the context of carbon neutrality. Granger causality test results signify that there exists a one-way causality from technology patent to carbon emission and from economic growth to carbon emission. We also constructed an improved Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The regression results manifest that technology patents contribute to the realization of carbon emission reduction and carbon neutralization, while the economic growth of emerging economies represented by BRICS countries significantly improves carbon emissions, but every single BRICS country shows differentiated carbon emissions conditions with their economic development stages. The impact of the interaction term on carbon emissions for the five BRICS countries also presents country-specific heterogeneity. Moreover, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) test results show that only Russia and South Africa have an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, whereas Brazil, India and China have a U-shaped curve relationship. There exists no EKC relationship when considering BRICS nations as a whole. Further robustness tests also verify that the conclusions obtained in this paper are consistent and stable. Finally, the paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions based on the research findings.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA DENGAN METODE FINAL PREDICTION ERROR

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Dwi Hartini ◽  
Yuni Prihadi Utomo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
The Body ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Final Prediction Error

The purpose of the research is to know whether inflation influences economic growth or economic growth influence inflation and to know the final prediction error of long - term equilibrium relationship between inflation and economic growth.The hypothesis presented in this research is that inflation has negative influence on economic growth and economic growth has negative influence on inflation. It is assumed that the final prediction error of long - term equilibrium relationship between inflation and economic growth has negative influence, and the final prediction error of equilibrium relationship between economic growth and inflation has negative influence.The method used in this research is causality analysis of Final Prediction Error (FPE) by using time series data of 1973 through 2002 taken from the Body of Statistic Center (BPS).It is conducted stationerity and causality test of FPE in this research. This research shows that there is one direction causality in which economic growth influences inflation.

scholarly journals Governance and economic welfare: A BRICS panel analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2, special issue) ◽  
pp. 290-299
Author(s):  
Adrino Mazenda ◽  
Priviledge Cheteni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Governance Structure ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Economic Welfare ◽  
Brics Countries

An effective governance structure is central to growth, sustainable development and equal income distribution (economic welfare) (Glass & Newig, 2020). Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) countries differ in governance structure with varying outcomes on economic welfare. This article explores the extent to which governance impacts economic welfare in BRICS countries viewed as an emerging powerhouse, with significant growth prospects — yet distinct in their governance systems, and income variability amongst its population. The article utilised panel static models (pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed effects (FEs) estimator) from 1996 to 2019 to investigate the effects of governance proxied by the World Bank World Governance Indicators (WGI) on economic welfare (proxied from two channels): quantitative (output stock/economic growth) and qualitative (reduced income inequality). The two channels combine the ordinary measure of welfare: gross domestic product (GDP), a proxy for economic growth, household and income distribution, and a proxy for income inequality drawing (Heys, 2019). The findings revealed that governance produced varying results on the economic welfare in BRICS. Democratic countries which practise good governance principles (South Africa and Brazil) had a negative economic welfare effect from both channels compared to one-party states, such as China and Russia. Therefore, the findings invalidate the null hypothesis that good governance is a catalyst for economic welfare. Sound policies, especially on structural change and equitable income distribution are necessary to enhance economic welfare in BRICS countries. The article is relevant and discloses iterations of the distinction between good governance and sound policy implications on developing nations’ economic welfare.

Globalization and Economic Growth Revisited: A Bootstrap Panel Causality Test

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
 Hsiao-Ping Chu ◽  
Tsangyao Chang ◽  
Tagi Sagafi-nejad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Causality ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Panel Granger Causality ◽  
The Us ◽  
Direction Of Causation ◽  
The Uk

This paper revisits the nature and direction of causation between globalization and economic growth in nine OECD countries and China by applying the bootstrap panel Granger causality test to the data over the period of 1981-2008. Empirical results support evidence on causality from globalization to economic growth for Netherlands and the UK; causality from economic growth to globalization in the US, neutrality for Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Italy, and Japan. Based on the empirical results from this paper, we provide important policy implications for the OECD countries and China.

scholarly journals Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Further Evidence from Taiwan

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Chung-Wei Kao ◽  
Jer-Yuh Wan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Conservation ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

This paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Taiwan. By applying the method of Gonzalo and Pitarakis (2006), we consider the possibility of significant threshold effects within the long-run relationship between the two variables, where the effect is trigged by changes in the phase of the business cycle. The Granger-causality test in a threshold model indicates the relationship between energy consumption and GDP is regime-dependent. A bidirectional relationship between these two variables is observed in the contractionary regime, implying that energy serves as an engine of economic growth and that reductions in energy use will have adverse effects on economic activities. On the other hand, a unidirectional causality running from GDP to energy consumption is detected in the expansionary regime. It indicates energy conservation is feasible in this regime with little or no detrimental effects on economic growth. The policy implications are that energy use and economic growth are jointly reinforcing each other during recessionary periods. However, in periods of high economic growth when energy consumption cannot bring about economic growth, energy conservation policies should be adopted with more aggressive thinking.

FOREIGN LABOR AND ECONOMIC GROWTH POLICY OPTIONS FOR SINGAPORE

2007 ◽  
Vol 52 (01) ◽  
pp. 53-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
WENG-TAT HUI ◽  
AAMIR RAFIQUE HASHMI
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Older Workers ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Current Level ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Growth Policy ◽  
Foreign Labor ◽  
Labor Requirements

Prior to the Asian economic crisis in 1997, Singapore's official projected medium-term GDP growth target was set at 7% per annum. Since then, the targeted growth rate has been reduced to 5%. This paper examines the implications of the 5% growth target on the labor requirements of the Singapore economy. It is shown that the projected resident labor force will not be able to keep pace with the increased labor demand and the share of foreigners in the labor force will increase significantly even under the most favorable scenario. Some implications of the increased dependence on foreign labor in Singapore are discussed. With permanent immigration fixed at the current level, various policy options and their effects on the demand for foreign labor are considered. These include improving labor productivity, raising the total fertility rate, increasing labor force participation of older workers and lowering the targeted rate of economic growth.

scholarly journals Influence of Exchange Rate on the Economic Growth in the Turkish Economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-34
Author(s):  
Özcan Karahan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Input Structure ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test

The traditional view asserts that there is a positive relationship between the foreign exchange rate and economic growth. So much so that an increase in foreign exchange rates enhances the net export volume and thus positively affects economic growth due to the increasing total demand. However, structural economists argue that there is an inverse relationship between the exchange rate and economic growth. Especially in developing countries, the input structure of production depends on imported capital and intermediate goods, so an increase in exchange rates makes import production inputs more expensive and thus negatively affects economic growth. Turkey, leaving foreign exchange rate free float since 2002, has implemented the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime as the monetary policy. Therefore, Turkey has a real experience to analyse the role of exchange rate changes on economic growth. Accordingly, in our study, using the quarterly data between 2002-Q1 and 2019-Q1, the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth was examined by employing Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and Innovation Accounting Techniques. Empirical findings suggest that there is a negative causal relationship between exchange rates and economic growth, as claimed by structuralist economists. In terms of policy implications, it can be argued that, even under the inflation targeting regime in Turkey, both price and exchange rate stability should be provided together.

scholarly journals Impacts of Economic Structural Change on Economic Growth: Forecasting Models and Policy Implications (A Case Study of Bến Tre Province)

2013 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 20-36
Author(s):  
Hổ Đinh Phi ◽  
DUY NGUYỄN KHÁNH
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
National Development ◽  
Quantitative Model ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Service Sectors ◽  
The Government

During the past ten years, economic growth in Vietnam changed positively in the direction of a modern industrial economy. Accordingly, economic structure also experienced changes in which manufacturing and service sectors accounted for a bigger share in the GDP. The government and most researchers are therefore very interested in economic structural change. This structural change in Vietnam as a whole requires the same change in local economies. However, some provinces did not catch up with the national development yet. Thus, in order to facilitate structural change on the whole economy, it is necessary to clarify what economic structural change aims at, and identify a quantitative model for measuring impact of such change, which becomes a real challenge to Vietnam?s researchers and policy makers. To help solve this problem, the authors conducted a case study in B?n Tre to seek practical evidence. The results, based on regressive model, VAR model and Granger causality test, show that economic structural change impacts on the level of economic growth, labor productivity and the quality of life. This research also lays the foundation for a model for forecasting impacts of economic structural change.

scholarly journals Economic Diversity and the Resource Curse: A Dynamic Panel Model

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fred Olayele ◽  
Kwok Soo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Panel Data Models ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Dynamic Panel Model ◽  
Economic Diversity ◽  
Panel Model ◽  
The Impact

This paper contributes to the debate on the impact of economic diversity and the resource curse on economic growth. We use dynamic panel data models on data on Canadian and US sub-national jurisdictions. We find evidence for a positive relationship between diversity and growth. Based on the Krugman Specialization Index, our analysis shows that the required threshold for not having the resource curse is 0.209. Above this threshold, the marginal contribution of natural resources to economic growth is lower for a more diversified regional economy than a less diversified one. We highlight the policy implications of these findings.

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