HUMAN DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS IN RUSSIA BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Author(s):  
Valentina G. Dobrokhleb ◽  
◽  

The dynamics of international migration in 2020 clearly reflects the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on both population and GDP indicators. In Russia, the situation is quite difficult. The incidence extends to the East of Moscow. One of the essential areas of analysis of the consequences of COVID-19 pandemic is human potential. Our assumptions that the total mortality losses from various causes in 2020 will be higher than before the spread of this infection have been confirmed. A serious demographic challenge for our country is the fact that according to preliminary data, as of January 1, 2021, the total population has decreased by 510,405 people compared to the beginning of 2020. The weakest areas in the field of social development in Russia are: low life expectancy; high level of poverty; widespread gender inequality. All three of these factors are negatively affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. During a pandemic, there is an urgent need for decision makers to find a balance between reasonable restrictions and respect for the rights and freedoms of citizens.

This study focuses on five corporate actions (dividend announcement, stock split, bonus issue, right issues, buy-back, and right issue) and attempts to determine their impact on shareholders’ wealth. The companies in the S&P BSE 500 index are taken as the total population, and the performance of those with corporate actions is compared to that in the broader universe. The study analyzes the impact by taking the share price of sampled companies for 30 days before and 30 days after the announcement of corporate actions. A paired-sample t-test is used to determine the impact of the corporate actions on share price in the event window period. The study concludes that corporate actions have significant impact on shareholders’ wealth; the level of impact is different for different corporate actions, but it does not differ according to the nature of the industry. The dividend and buy-back have a low level of impact, and bonus issues, rights issues, and stock splits have a high level of impact on shareholders’ wealth. Finally, the study proves that corporate actions are quite relevant to shareholders’ wealth.


Author(s):  
Karl Schmedders ◽  
Armin Rott

Spiegel Online (www.spiegel.de) is the leading news Web site in Germany. The site was first designed to accompany Der Spiegel, one of Europe's largest and Germany's most influential weekly magazine, which has a weekly circulation of around one million. The site's content is produced by a team of more than fifty journalists writing in several categories: politics, business, networld, panorama, arts and entertainment, science, university, school, sports, travel, weather, and automobiles. The original content is complemented by articles purchased from news agencies and selected articles from the print edition. Spiegel-Verlag is a major contributor to the Hamburg Media School, which offers professional master's degree programs in Media Management (MBA), film, and journalism. In their second year, MBA students typically engage in consulting projects with major media companies. In a recent assignment, Spiegel Online posed two questions to the MBA team: are there any chances for an economically successful entry into the market for interactive classifieds? And if so, what should the business model look like in detail? A student team analyzed markets for classified ads and found one market segment that appeared to be particularly promising: the market for art objects. During the development of a business plan for a new venture in this market it became apparent that there is much uncertainty about the key input parameters to the business plan. As a result, it is very difficult to assess the viability of the business idea. How can the team properly account for the uncertain input parameters? What is the impact of this uncertainty on the bottom line? Will a Web site for art objects earn or lose money? How can the team communicate this uncertainty to a group of high-level decision makers who want a simple “go or no-go” recommendation?The objective is to make students aware of the applicability of Monte Carlo simulation to the analysis of complex business plans. Students should learn how to explicitly account for uncertain inputs in a business plan, how to assess the impact of uncertainty on the bottom line via Monte Carlo simulation, and how to communicate the results of their analysis to high-level decision makers.


Author(s):  
Karin Modig ◽  
Marcus Ebeling

Objectives: Mortality from Covid-19 is monitored in detail both within as well as between countries with different strategies against the virus. However, death counts and relative risks based on crude numbers can be misleading. Instead, age specific death rates should be used for comparability. Given the difficulty of ascertainment of Covid-19 specific deaths, excess all-cause mortality is currently more appropriate for comparisons. By estimating age- and sex-specific death rates we aim to get more accurate estimates of the excess mortality attributed to Covid-19, as well as the difference between men and women in Sweden. Design: We make use of Swedish register data about total weekly deaths, total population at risk, and estimate age- and sex-specific weekly death rates for 2020 and the 5 previous years. The data is provided by Statistics Sweden. Results: From the first week of April and onwards, the death rates at all ages above 60 are higher than those in previous years in Sweden. Persons above age 80 are dis-proportionally more affected, and men suffer higher levels of excess mortality than women at all ages with 75% higher death rates for males and 50% higher for females. Current excess mortality corresponds to a decline in remaining life expectancy of 3 years for men and 2 years for women. Conclusion: The Covid-19 pandemic has so far had a clear and consistent effect on total mortality in Sweden, with male death rates being comparably more affected. What consequences the pandemic will eventually have on mortality and life expectancy will depend on the progression of the pandemic, the extent that some of the deaths would have occurred in the absence of the pandemic, only somewhat later, the consequences for other health conditions, as well as the health care sector at large.


2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 279
Author(s):  
Mariana Mourgova

Mortality due to avoidable causes of death is one of the most often used quality and efficiency indicators for the health care system and the policies of prevention of morbidity and mortality by causes of death due to behavioural or environmental factors. The objective of the article is to study the impact of avoidable mortality including amenable and preventable mortality on the life expectancy in Bulgaria during the period 2005-2012. The classification of avoidable mortality, proposed by the Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom in 2011, is used. The methods of decomposing the change in two life expectancies by age and the change in two life expectancies by age according to the causes of death by E. Andreev and E. Arriaga are applied to measure the impact on the change in life expectancy. The main results of the study show that during the period 2005-2012 along with the decrease in the total mortality, also the avoidable mortality has dropped – from 34. 72% to 29. 12% of the mortality due to all causes of death. The avoidable causes’ of death contribution to life expectancy increase is by 1. 20 years and it is considerably greater than those of the other causes. Mortality due to amenable and preventable causes of death is also decreasing. Greater is the effect of the amenable causes of death on the life expectancy increase.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0249199
Author(s):  
Mbaye Faye ◽  
Abdoulaye Dème ◽  
Abdou Kâ Diongue ◽  
Ibrahima Diouf

Objective The aim of this study is to find the most suitable heat wave definition among 15 different ones and to evaluate its impact on total, age-, and gender-specific mortality for Bandafassi, Senegal. Methods Daily weather station data were obtained from Kedougou situated at 17 km from Bandafassi from 1973 to 2012. Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) are used to investigate the effect of heat wave on mortality and to evaluate the nonlinear association of heat wave definitions at different lag days, respectively. Results Heat wave definitions, based on three or more consecutive days with both daily minimum and maximum temperatures greater than the 90th percentile, provided the best model fit. A statistically significant increase in the relative risk (RRs 1.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.2–1.6), 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9), 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08–1.3), 1.2 (95% CI: 1.04–1.5), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.8), 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2–1.5), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.07–1.6), and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.8)) of total mortality was observed for eight definitions. By using the definition based on the 90th percentile of minimum and maximum temperature with a 3-day duration, we also found that females and people aged ≥ 55 years old were at higher risks than males and other different age groups to heat wave related mortality. Conclusion The impact of heat waves was associated with total-, age-, gender-mortality. These results are expected to be useful for decision makers who conceive of public health policies in Senegal and elsewhere. Climate parameters, including temperatures and humidity, could be used to forecast heat wave risks as an early warning system in the area where we conduct this research. More broadly, our findings should be highly beneficial to climate services, researchers, clinicians, end-users and decision-makers.


Author(s):  
Е. Пастухова ◽  
E. Pastukhova ◽  
Т. Кияйкина ◽  
T. Kiyaykina

The article is devoted to the study of the health of the population in the regions of the Siberian Federal District on the basis of the following statistical indicators: infant mortality, total mortality, fertility rate, mortality according to death cause, life expectancy, primary incidence, morbidity according to disease. The study has revealed some trends in public health of the Siberian regions in 2012 – 2016. Positive trends in the health status of the population of the Siberian territories are: 1) decrease in infant and general mortality, mortality from circulatory diseases, external causes, and respiratory diseases; 2) increase in overall male and female life expectancy. Negative trends in the public health of the regions in question include: 1) declining fertility under the influence of the «population wave» effect; 2) increase in cancer mortality rate, diseases of the digestive system and infections. Public health of the Siberian territories is characterized by a high level of differentiation, as well as by multidirectional dynamics of morbidity and mortality in different regions. A low level of public health has been observed in the republics of Tyva and Altai, Trans-Baikal, and Irkutsk Region. A relatively good medical and demographic situation has been observed in Tomsk, Omsk, and Novosibirsk regions.


2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 501-512
Author(s):  
Irineu De Brito Junior ◽  
Jaime Huivin ◽  
Mario Chong

Goals: This study focuses on assessing disaster risks in a typical inmegacity in Latin America. The baseline focuses on the logistics characteristics of the last mile, the vulnerability of buildings and the mobility of pedestrians. Design / Methodology / Approach: A risk assessment procedure is developed using logistic metrics through a methodology that captures the most relevant urban information within a square kilometer, and two complementary methods that provide support to obtain metrics associated with the occurrence of disasters. Results: The results show that the majority of blocks in the analyzed area have levels of precautionary risk due to their high level of store density, structure’s vulnerability, pedestrian movement and freight flow. Limitations of the research: The main limitations for the data collection were the insecurity, the level of informality and the chaos presented in the studied area. Practical implications: The main findings allow decision makers to know the most vulnerable areas of the place and, thus, propose recommendations for public policies based on urban knowledge. In addition, the proposed method can be taken as a reference to be applied to other zones of similar characteristics. Originality / Value: This research develops a methodology that evaluates the risks and mitigates the impact on a specific unstudied commercial area, combining three existing methodologies to correctly asses risk on certain zones. This work is an extension of the work of Huivin et al. (2020); the added value is that it provides deeper literature reviewing that help decision-makers and researchers to know the actual state of the art.


Stanovnistvo ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Marinkovic

The use of tobacco in Serbia has for many years been one of the most frequent risk factors affecting disease development. Although its impact is often neglected and the effects on health minimised, reviewing the existing literature and calculating the tobacco consumption impact on the mortality of the population in Serbia (using the Peto-Lopez method) show a clear link between smoking and health of the population. Serbian population is heavily burdened with the negative effects of tobacco on health, especially men. At the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, mortality from the illness or cause of death associated with smoking was at about 17% of the total mortality. In men, it is estimated that even a quarter of the total mortality is associated with smoking. In the female population, the share of smokers is considerably lower, and consequently the mortality from this factor is lower, about 9% of the total mortality. Of all major disease groups, tumours are most affected by smoking. The share of tobaccorelated mortality in neoplasms is high and accounts for 30% (43% in men and 14% in women). In cardiovascular diseases, the impact of smoking is much smaller and about 6,000 deaths per year are associated with the use of tobacco. Since the early 1990s, the number of smoking-attributable death has been growing. Relatively, the share of men has not changed, but for 20 years of analysis the share of women has significantly increased from 5% to 9%. In all age groups, the share of smoking-related mortality has increased in the female population, especially in the 45-69 age range where mortality has been doubled. Surveys on the health of the Serbian population also confirm the trend of increasing the share of women smokers in the population, especially in the categories of young people. Men in Serbia (35-69 years of age) have the highest smoking-attributable death rate in Europe. As much as 44% of total deaths in that age are directly related to smoking. Besides Hungary, where mortality in men is also relatively high (42%), other countries have significantly lower shares. Observed at the level of the entire continent, countries of the Balkan Peninsula (and their neighbours) have the highest shares of smoking-attributable death. Women in Serbia have a moderately high share of 9% and are among the ten most vulnerable countries in Europe. The biggest difference in smoking-related mortality by gender is observed in the Pyrenees Peninsula and in the eastern and south-eastern parts of Europe. These are also the countries with the largest absolute difference in the mortality rate of men and women, thus confirming the hypothesis that tobacco smoke, as a single mortality factor, plays the most important role in establishing a different gender mortality pattern. A high percentage of smokers in the total population limits the growth of life expectancy and affects the difference in gender mortality rate. If a certain mortality factor potentially affects the life expectancy of up to three years for men in Serbia, as shown in the paper, then it is especially important to pay attention to measures of prevention and awareness of the population regarding this issue. Moreover, it is particularly important to recognise the consequences of passive smoking the youth and children are exposed to, since in Serbia there is a great deal of tolerance for smoking indoors.


2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 211-226
Author(s):  
Biruta Skrętowicz ◽  
Michał Wójcik

The aim of this paper is to compare the dynamic of unemployment in the years 2000-2014 in selected EU countries. The subject of the present analysis is unemployment in total population and in subpopulations identified on the basis of gender, age, and education. The notion of unemployment rate was used throughout, and its values were taken from the Internet database Eurostat. The analysis conducted makes it possible to draw the following conclusions. The differentiation of total unemployment rate among the selected EU countries was very high, and the shape of the curves reflected the impact of economic crisis. Around 2010 many countries saw stabilising tendencies (with the exception of Greece and the countries located in the Iberian Peninsula). In the countries with low unemployment rates the surplus of female unemployment is giving way to a gender balance, or even a slight surplus of male unemployment. Among the selected age categories, the youngest group was and continues to be most heavily affected by the situation on the labour market. A high level of education is still correlated with a lower risk of unemployment; nevertheless the growing differences between the countries constitute a troubling trend.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcus Ebeling ◽  
Anna C. Meyer ◽  
Karin Modig

Abstract Background Recent improvements in life expectancy in many countries stem from reduced mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer above the age of 60. This is the combined result of decreased incidence and improved survival among those with disease. The latter has led to a higher proportion in the population of people with a past history of disease. This is a group with higher mortality than the general population. How growing shares of persons with past history of disease and improved survival with disease have affected changes in life expectancy of the total population is the objective of this paper. Methods Using register data for the total Swedish population, we stratified the population based on whether individuals have been diagnosed with myocardial infarction, stroke, hip fracture, colon cancer, or breast cancer. Using a novel decomposition approach, we decomposed the changes in life expectancy at age 60 between 1994 and 2016 into contributions from improved survival with disease and from changes in proportion of people with past history of disease. Results Improvements in survival from disease resulted in gains of life expectancy for the total population. However, while the contributions to life expectancy improvements from myocardial infarction, stroke and breast cancer were substantial, the contributions from the other diseases were minor. These gains were counteracted, to various degrees, by the increasing proportion of people with raised mortality due to a past history of disease. For instance, the impact on life expectancy by improved survival from breast cancer was almost halved by the increasing share of females with a past history of breast cancer. Conclusion Rising numbers of survivors of different diseases can slow the increase in life expectancy. This dynamic may represent the costs associated with successful treatment of diseases, and thus, a potential “failure of success.” This dynamic should be considered when assessing mortality and life expectancy trends. As populations are aging and disease survival continues to improve, this issue is likely to become even more important in the future.


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