The ability to accurately predict the course of an epidemic is extremely important. This article looks at an influenza outbreak that spread through a small boarding school. Predictions are made on multiple days throughout the epidemic using the stochastic Galerkin method to consider a range of plausible values for the parameters. These predictions are then compared to known data points. Predictions made before the peak of the epidemic had much larger variances compared to predictions made after the peak of the epidemic.
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A stochastic Galerkin method for first-order quasilinear hyperbolic systems with uncertainty
