scholarly journals Mental Computations of Ideological Choice and Conviction: The Utility of Integrating Psycho-Economics and Bayesian Models of Belief

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leor Zmigrod
Keyword(s):  
Formal Model ◽  
Belief Systems ◽  
Formal Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Models ◽  
Psychological Needs ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Sensory Experiences ◽  
Critical Components ◽  
Human Brains

A quick scan of the political landscape reveals that people differ in the ideologies they embrace and advocate. Why do individuals prefer certain ideologies over others? A formal analysis of psychological needs and consumption desires suggests that it is possible to compute the subjective utility of selecting one ideology over another, as though it were a purchasing decision. Given resources, constraints, and available options, individuals can rationally choose the ideology that best matches or resonates with their interests. It is a compelling framework that can take into account how diverse ideologies satisfy people’s diverse and multidimensional psychological and material needs. This psycho-economic model is ambitious and informative, and I will argue that it can be even more encompassing and enlightening if it is expanded to incorporate two critical components of ideological cognition: (1) the nature of ideological conviction and extremism and (2) the dynamic, probabilistic mental computations that underlie belief formation, preservation, and change. Firstly, I will argue that a formal model of ideological choice cannot escape the question of the strength of ideological commitment. In other words, we need to ask not only about which ideologies individuals choose but also about how strongly they adhere to these ideologies once those are chosen. An analysis of ideological choice needs to be accompanied by an analysis of ideological conviction. Secondly, in order to build a robust sense of the rationality behind ideological thinking, it is useful to incorporate principles of uncertainty and probability-based belief updating into the formal model of ideological worldviews. Bayesian models highlight how human brains seek to build predictive models of the world by updating their beliefs and preferences in ways that are proportional to their prior expectations and sensory experiences. Consequently, incorporating Bayesian principles into the formal model of ideological choice will provide a more wholistic understanding of what happens when a mind enters the market for belief systems – and why a mind can, at times, purchase toxic doses of the ideologies that sellers and entrepreneurs offer on display.

Mary, Countess of Derby, and the Politics of Victorian Britain

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Davey
Keyword(s):  
Social Relations ◽  
Political Life ◽  
The Political ◽  
Constitutional Rights ◽  
Benjamin Disraeli ◽  
Victorian Era ◽  
William Gladstone ◽  
Victorian Britain ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Key Events

Lady Mary Derby (1824–1900) occupied a pivotal position in Victorian politics, yet her activities have largely been overlooked or ignored. A Female Politician places Mary back into the political position she occupied and offers the first dedicated account of her career. Based on extensive archival research, including hitherto neglected or lost sources, this study reconstructs the political worlds Mary inhabited. Her political landscape was dominated by the machinations and intrigues of high politics and diplomacy. As this book uncovers, her political skill and acumen were highly valued by leading politicians of the day, including Benjamin Disraeli and William Gladstone, and she played a significant role in many of the key events of the mid-Victorian era. This included the passing of the Second Reform Act, the formation of Disraeli’s 1874 government, the Eastern Crisis of 1875–1878, and Gladstone’s 1880–1885 government. By exploring how one woman was able to exercise influence at the heart of Victorian politics, this book considers what Mary’s career tells us about the nature of political life in the mid nineteenth century. It sheds new light on the connections between informal and formal political culture, incorporating the politics of the home, letter-writing, and social relations into a consideration of the politics of Parliament and government. A Female Politician is a rich investigation of how a woman, with few legal or constitutional rights, was able to become a significant figure in mid-Victorian political life.

Coalitional Presidentialism in Cross-Regional Perspective

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Chaisty ◽  
Nic Cheeseman ◽  
Timothy J. Power
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Case Selection ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Empirical Material ◽  
Regional Perspective

This chapter introduces the three regions—sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and the Former Soviet Union—and the nine countries—Armenia, Benin, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Kenya, Malawi, Russia, and Ukraine—that provide the empirical material for the book. It introduces the two criteria used for case selection: 1) democratic competitiveness; 2) de jure and de facto constitutional provisions that empower presidents to be coalitional formateurs. It also introduces a variable that measures the salience of cross-party cooperation: the Index of Coalitional Necessity. Finally, it sketches the political landscape that has shaped the dynamics of coalitional presidentialism within each region, and it draws attention to important contextual differences between the nine country cases.

Reevaluating the Role of Ideology in Chile

2021 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Giancarlo Visconti
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Electoral Strategies ◽  
Crisis Of Representation

ABSTRACTVoters’ ideological stances have long been considered one of the most important factors for understanding electoral choices in Chile. In recent years, however, the literature has begun to call this premise into question, due to several changes in the Chilean political landscape: the current crisis of representation, the high programmatic congruence between the two main coalitions, the decline in the political relevance of the dictatorship, and the rise of nonprogrammatic electoral strategies. In addition to these transformations, Chile switched to voluntary voting in 2012. This article studies whether ideology still informs electoral choices in Chile in an era of voluntary voting. It implements a conjoint survey experiment in low-to-middle-income neighborhoods in Santiago, where voters would be expected to be less ideological. It shows that candidates’ ideological labels are crucial for understanding the electoral decisions of a large part of the sample, particularly among likely voters.

scholarly journals An ethic of care? Academic administration and pandemic policy

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 632-638
Author(s):  
Stephanie A Bryson
Keyword(s):  
Social Work ◽  
Political Theory ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Ethic Of Care ◽  
The Political ◽  
Academic Administration ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Impact

This reflexive essay examines the adoption of an intentional ‘ethic of care’ by social work administrators in a large social work school located in the Pacific Northwest. An ethic of care foregrounds networks of human interdependence that collapse the public/private divide. Moreover, rooted in the political theory of recognition, a care ethic responds to crisis by attending to individuals’ uniqueness and ‘whole particularity.’ Foremost, it rejects indifference. Through the personal recollections of one academic administrator, the impact of rejecting indifference in spring term 2020 is described. The essay concludes by linking the rejection of indifference to the national political landscape.

The Military Post-Mugabe

2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 176-188
Author(s):  
Godfrey Maringira
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Difference ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
The Military

This article argues that, through the coup, the military has become more visible in national politics in post-Mugabe Zimbabwe. The current situation under President Mnangagwa marks a qualitative difference with the military under Mugabe’s rule. Currently, in now being more prominent, the military is politics and is the determinant of any political transition that may be forthcoming in Zimbabwe. However, if it deems it necessary, the military accommodates civilian politicians into politics in order to ‘sanitize’ the political landscape in its own interests. Simultaneously, despite their involvement in the coup, ordinary soldiers feel increasingly marginalized under Mnangagwa’s government.

Is Age the New Class? Economic Crisis and Demographics in European Politics

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Erk
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
New Class ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Material Interests ◽  
Post War ◽  
The Welfare State

As the crisis turns into long-term economic downturn, younger age-groups in Europe seem to be hit with higher levels of unemployment while the welfare state is steadily shrinking. The young have suddenly become a social group united by collective material interests, but does this translate into a sense of a collective political interest? The paper examines to what extent the dominant class-based social science of the post-war years can help us understand the politics of age-groups. The analysis highlights four changes since post-war years: the workplace has changed, impacting socialization; modern media has changed, impacting mobilization; the political landscape is fairly institutionalized, tempering the possibilities for new political concerns to find voice; and those who would define and articulate the political priorities of the young are leaving the Old Continent.

The World. Challenges of the Global Crisis. Germany

2014 ◽  
pp. 38-52
Author(s):  
I. Semenenko ◽  
G. Irishin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Social Market Economy ◽  
The Political ◽  
Leadership Positions ◽  
Economy Model ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
The World ◽  
Social Market ◽  
The Eu

The economic crisis of 2008–2009 highlighted new problems in the development of the German social market economy model and brought to the forefront the factors of its resilience that have ensured Germany’s leadership positions in the EU. Changes in economic policy have affected in the first place the energy and the financial sectors. Shifts in the political landscape have led to the appearance of new political parties. These changes have affected the results of the 2013 elections, the liberal democrats failure to enter the Bundestag has made the winner – CDU – seek new coalition partners.

Maintaining Technical Integrity of Petroleum Flowlines on Offshore Installations: A Decision Support System for Inspection Planning

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. M. Chandima Ratnayake ◽  
Tore Markeset
Keyword(s):  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Technical Condition ◽  
Inspection Planning ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Plant Strategy ◽  
The North ◽  
Critical Components ◽  
Inspection Data

Oil and Gas (O&G) platforms in the North Sea are facing aging problems as many of the installations have matured and are approaching their design lifetime. Flowlines are used to transport oil and gas well stream from the wellhead to the production manifold. They are categorised as one of the most critical components on a production facility. Flowline degradation takes place due to corrosion and erosion. The deterioration of a flowline may increase the risk of leakages, ruptures, etc., which shall lead to serious HSE (health, safety and environmental) and financial consequences. Any such risks have a direct impact on the O&G installation’s technical integrity as well as the operator’s sustainability concerns. Conventionally, pipelines are designed with safety provisions to provide a theoretical minimum failure rate over the life span. Furthermore, to reduce the risk of failure various techniques are routinely used to monitor the status of pipelines during the operation phase. The existing methods of flowline health monitoring planning requires one to take into consideration the operator’s plant strategy, flowline degradation mechanisms, historical data, etc. A technical condition report is made based on findings’ reports and degradation trends. This report recommends the inspection of a number of points on the flowlines in a certain year using non-destructive evaluation methods such as visual inspection, ultrasonic testing, radiographic testing, etc. Based on the technical condition report, in general for a certain preventive maintenance shutdown, 10 to 15 flowline inspection openings are accommodated as finance, time and resource availability are taken into consideration. However, it is customary to plan to open more locations in a certain inspection package than can be inspected and minimization of such points is at present done on an ad hoc basis. This paper suggests a formal model and a framework to formally minimize the number of visual inspections by executing the plant strategy as well as HSE concerns. The model is derived using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) framework, which is a multi-criteria decision-making approach. The model is developed based on literature, industrial practice, experience as well as real inspection data from a mature offshore O&G installation located on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

The Re-ethnicisation of Politics in Myanmar and the Making of the Rohingya Ethnicity Paradox

2018 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 361-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Hein
Keyword(s):  
Group Identity ◽  
Ethnic Origin ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Ruling Elites ◽  
Violent Acts

In Myanmar, hostilities between the majority Burmese and the minority Rakhine people on one side and the minority Rohingya on the other side have been common, but violence has persisted and even increased during the unstable transition away from an authoritarian regime. Most Burmese citizens appear to be united behind the ruling elites on the Rohingya issue. Why is the violence assumed to be of ethnic origin and whose interests are served by the acceptance of such violent acts as routine events? The article attempts to seek answers by following Brass’s framework on Hindu–Muslim violence in India. Its purpose is to examine which actors, mechanisms and institutional developments have been dominant and significant in the re-ethnicisation of the political landscape in Myanmar and how this has consolidated the formation of a contentious and contested specific Rohingya group identity among many Arakanese Muslims.

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