scholarly journals Inferences about the effect of lockdowns on mental health require causal identification strategies: A reply to Thornley et al.

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt N Williams ◽  
Stephen Robert Hill

This letter responds to another letter in the journal (Thorney et al., 2021). Thornley et al. reported a time series analysis of "parasuicide" cases in New Zealand children and concluded that this time series demonstrates a "clear detrimental effect of COVID-19 lockdown policies on child mental health”. In this letter, we point out four reasons why this conclusion is not justified by the data presented by Thornley et al. [Note: Our letter did not have a formal abstract; this summary was added for the preprint.]

1986 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 447-457 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. Carles ◽  
W. A. K. Kipngeno

ABSTRACTA study was made of the levels of oestrous activity of two indigenous breeds of sheep (Somali and Nandi) and three exotic breeds of sheep (Merino, Karakul and New Zealand Romney Marsh) over a period of 3 years, in an equatorial environment. Breed was the only significant source of variation for the length of the oestrous cycle (P < 0·01). The mean lengths of the oestrous cycle were 17·2 (s.d. 3·21), 17·5 (s.d. 2·24), 17·9 (s.d. 2·99), 17·5 (s.d. 2·57) and 16·5 (s.d. 3·41) days for the Somali, Nandi, Merino, Karakul and Romney Marsh breeds, respectively.The mean percentage of ewes of the different breeds showing oestrus in 20-day periods were 69·8 (s.d. 22·57), 49·9 (s.d. 18·67), 63·4 (s.d. 25·70), 79·2 (s.d. 20·30) and 33·2 (s.d. 23·50) % for the Somali, Nandi, Merino, Karakul and Romney Marsh breeds, respectively. Time-series analysis did not detect any evidence of seasonal variation in oestrous activity, although there was an indication that the Merino and Romney Marsh breeds showed a marked increase in oestrous activity following, the introduction of rams. It was concluded that the variation in level of oestrous activity was short term and random.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. e83484 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aparna Lal ◽  
Takayoshi Ikeda ◽  
Nigel French ◽  
Michael G. Baker ◽  
Simon Hales

Author(s):  
Jongho Heo ◽  
Nan-He Yoon ◽  
Soyoun Shin ◽  
Soo-Young Yu ◽  
Manwoo Lee

Abstract Background High rates of involuntary hospitalization and long lengths of stay have been problematic in Korea. To address these problems, the Mental Health and Welfare Law was revised in 2016, mainly to protect patient rights by managing involuntary admissions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the revised Mental Health and Welfare Law on deinstitutionalization by using routinely collected data from hospital admissions and continuity of mental health service use after hospital discharge as proxy measures of deinstitutionalization. Methods We used monthly-aggregated claims-based data with a principal or secondary diagnosis of schizophrenia from 2012 to 2019, collected by the National Health Insurance Service. Outcome variables included rates of first admission; discharges; re-admissions within 7, 30, and 90 days; outpatient visits after discharge within 7 and 30 days; and continuity of visits, at least once a month for 6 months after discharge. Using interrupted time series analysis, we estimated the change in levels and trends of the rates after revision, controlling for baseline level and trend. Results There was no significant change in first admission and discharge rates after the revision. Immediately after the revision, however, the rates of re-admission within 7 and 30 days dropped significantly, by 2.24% and 1.99%, respectively. The slopes of the re-admission rate decreased significantly, by 0.10% and 0.14%, respectively. The slopes of the re-admission rate within 90 days decreased (0.001%). The rates of outpatient visits within 7 and 30 days increased by 1.98% and 2.72%, respectively. The rate of continuous care showed an immediate 4.0% increase. Conclusions The revision had slight but significant effects on deinstitutionalization, especially decreasing short-term re-admission and increasing immediate outpatient service utilization.


2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 (jun07 1) ◽  
pp. bcr2012006300-bcr2012006300 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. H. Bos ◽  
R. Hoenders ◽  
P. de Jonge

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (11) ◽  
pp. 1050-1056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Sara ◽  
Clifford Baxter ◽  
Patricia Menendez ◽  
Julia Lappin

Objective: Amphetamine use and availability have increased in Australia and there are concerns that this has led to more frequent hospital admissions with amphetamine-related psychosis. This study examines whether amphetamine-related admissions to mental health units are more common at times of greater amphetamine availability. Methods: We conducted an ecological study using aggregate crime and health service data for NSW, Australia, from January 2000 to March 2015. Amphetamine-related criminal incidents (arrests or cautions for possession or use) were used as an indirect measure of amphetamine availability. Semiparametric time series analysis was used to compare monthly arrest rates to monthly hospitalisation rates for (1) amphetamine abuse or dependence, (2) amphetamine-related psychosis and (3) any psychosis. Results: Amphetamine-related admissions to NSW mental health units have increased four- to fivefold since 2009 and comprised approximately 10% of all admissions to these units in early 2015. There was a significant association between arrests and amphetamine-related admissions. After adjustment for seasonal variation, this effect demonstrated a time lag of 1–2 months. There was no relationship between amphetamine arrests and overall admissions for psychosis. Conclusion: Greater amphetamine availability significantly predicts admissions for amphetamine use disorders and amphetamine-related psychosis. Better treatment strategies are needed to break the nexus between drug availability and drug-related harm.


2015 ◽  
Vol 410 ◽  
pp. 174-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Cogez ◽  
Laure Meynadier ◽  
Claude Allègre ◽  
Delphine Limmois ◽  
Frédéric Herman ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Steeg ◽  
Lana Bojanić ◽  
George Tilston ◽  
Richard Williams ◽  
David A Jenkins ◽  
...  

Background: Surveillance of clinically treated self-harm episode frequency is an important component of suicide prevention in the dynamic context of COVID-19. Studies published to date have investigated the initial months following the onset of the pandemic, despite national and regional restrictions persisting to Summer 2021. Methods: We conducted a descriptive time series analysis utilising data from the Greater Manchester Care Record, which contains de-identified, primary care health records of 2.8 million patients. Counts of incident and all episodes of self-harm recorded between 1st January 2019 and 31st May 2021 were made for all patients, with stratification by sex, age group, ethnicity, and index of multiple deprivation (IMD) quintile and examination of overall differences by national and regional restriction phases. Findings: Between 1st January 2019 and 31st May 2021, 33,444 episodes of self-harm by 13,148 individuals were recorded. Frequency ratios of incident and all episodes of self-harm were 0.59 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.69) and 0.69 (CI 0.63 to 0.75) respectively in April 2020 compared to February 2020. Between August 2020 and May 2021 frequency ratios were 0.92 (CI 0.88 to 0.96) for incident episodes and 0.86 (CI 0.84 to 0.88) for all episodes compared to the same months in 2019. Reductions were largest among men and people living in the most deprived neighbourhoods. An increase in all-episode self-harm (frequency ratio 1.09, CI 1.03 to 1.16) was observed for adolescents aged 10-17 between August 2020 and May 2021. Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a sustained impact on help seeking for self-harm. Reductions in primary care recorded self-harm have implications for clinicians' ability to assess the needs and risks of individuals. Some patients may be experiencing prolonged untreated deterioration in their mental health while other groups are presenting in higher numbers. Our findings have important implications for primary care and mental health services in manging ongoing demand.


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