scholarly journals The impact of preemptive investment on natural disasters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jhorland Ayala-García ◽  
Sandy Dall’Erba
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Insurance ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more frequent and more intense in the future. Because their mitigation is a challenge and their cost to human life is large, this paper studies the impact of preemptive investment against natural disasters on the future occurrence of landslides and the losses associated with it. Based on a panel of 746 Colombian municipalities with medium and high risk of landslides and an instrumental variable approach, we find that preemptive public investment can reduce the number of landslides, the number of people who die, are injured, or disappear after a landslide, as well as the number of people affected. However, we do not find any effect on the number of houses destroyed. The results reveal that local governments focus their preventive measures on saving the lives and the physical integrity of their citizens, but they pay less attention to the direct market losses of natural disasters. These results are relevant in the presence of imperfect private insurance markets and increased informal settlements.

scholarly journals Riverbed Migrations in Western Taiwan under Climate Change

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Chiung Chao ◽  
Chi-Wen Chen ◽  
Hsin-Chi Li ◽  
Yung-Ming Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Flow Discharge ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, extreme weather phenomena have occurred worldwide, resulting in many catastrophic disasters. Under the impact of climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events in Taiwan will increase, according to a report on climate change in Taiwan. This study analyzed riverbed migrations, such as degradation and aggradation, caused by extreme rainfall events under climate change for the Choshui River, Taiwan. We used the CCHE1D model to simulate changes in flow discharge and riverbed caused by typhoon events for the base period (1979–2003) and the end of the 21st century (2075–2099) according to the climate change scenario of representative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) and dynamical downscaling of rainfall data in Taiwan. According to the results on flow discharge, at the end of the 21st century, the average peak flow during extreme rainfall events will increase by 20% relative to the base period, but the time required to reach the peak will be 8 h shorter than that in the base period. In terms of the results of degradation and aggradation of the riverbed, at the end of the 21st century, the amount of aggradation will increase by 33% over that of the base period. In the future, upstream sediment will be blocked by the Chichi weir, increasing the severity of scouring downstream. In addition, due to the increased peak flow discharge in the future, the scouring of the pier may be more serious than it is currently. More detailed 2D or 3D hydrological models are necessary in future works, which could adequately address the erosive phenomena created by bridge piers. Our results indicate that not only will flood disasters occur within a shorter time duration, but the catchment will also face more severe degradation and aggradation in the future.

Does extreme rainfall lead to heavy losses in the food industry?

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 244-266
Author(s):  
Edimilson Costa Lucas ◽  
Wesley Mendes-Da-Silva ◽  
Gustavo Silva Araujo
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Food Industry ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Managing the risks associated to world food production is an important challenge for governments. A range of factors, among them extreme weather events, has threatened food production in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of extreme rainfall events on the food industry in Brazil, a prominent player in this industry. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the AR-GARCH-GPD hybrid methodology to identify whether extreme rainfall affects the stock price of food companies. To do so, the authors collected the daily closing price of the 16 food industry companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange (B3), in January 2015. Findings The results indicate that these events have a significant impact on stock returns: on more than half of the days immediately following the heavy rain that fell between 28 February 2005 and 30 December 2014, returns were significantly low, leading to average daily losses of 1.97 per cent. These results point to the relevance of the need for instruments to hedge against weather risk, particularly in the food industry. Originality/value Given that extreme weather events have been occurring more and more frequently, financial literature has documented attempts at assessing the economic impacts of weather changes. There is little research, however, into assessing the impacts of these events at corporate level.

Ecuador's Correa slashes spending to appease investors

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Oil Fields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
International Investors ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of fiscal austerity on growth and the re-election outlook. Significance Following a long fiscal expansion, Ecuador is set to enter a period of austerity. The collapse of world oil prices and the deterioration of public finances have forced President Rafael Correa's government to propose a 15% reduction in spending next year. The cut will improve public finances and please international investors, but create political problems for the president and government as the country moves towards elections in 2017. Impacts Lower levels of public spending will decrease domestic demand and place downward pressure on growth. Oil revenues and savings from public investment in infrastructure will support public finances over the longer term. These will include revenues from oil fields previously integrated into the Yasuni/ITT environmental programme. Clashes between the central and local governments will increase as austerity deepens and pre-election political jostling intensifies.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Rainfall-Triggered Debris Flows under the Impact of Extreme Events: A Chenyulan Watershed Case Study, Taiwan

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 2201
Author(s):  
Jinn-Chyi Chen ◽  
Wen-Shun Huang
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Central Taiwan ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the conditions that lead to debris flows, and their association with the rainfall return period (T) and the probability of debris flow occurrence (P) in the Chenyulan watershed, central Taiwan. Several extreme events have occurred in the Chenyulan watershed in the past, including the Chi-Chi earthquake and extreme rainfall events. The T for three rainfall indexes (i.e., the maximum hourly rainfall depth (Im), the maximum 24-h rainfall amount (Rd), and RI (RI = Im× Rd)) were analyzed, and the T associated with the triggering of debris flows is presented. The P–T relationship can be determined using three indexes, Im, Rd, and RI; how it is affected and unaffected by extreme events was developed. Models for evaluating P using the three rainfall indexes were proposed and used to evaluate P between 2009 and 2020 (i.e., after the extreme rainfall event of Typhoon Morakot in 2009). The results of this study showed that the P‒T relationship, using the RI or Rd index, was reasonable for predicting the probability of debris flow occurrence.

scholarly journals Application of remote sensing and GIS for assessing the level of change of land use status in the coast of Ngoc Hien district (Ca Mau province) due to the impact of sea level rise

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3B) ◽  
pp. 227-237
Author(s):  
Pham Viet Hong ◽  
Tran Anh Tuan ◽  
Nguyen Thi Anh Nguyet
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Great Influence ◽  
The Impact

Today, environmental hazards and challenges are no longer confined to the national or regional scale but on the global scale. One of the biggest challenges for humanity is the natural disasters, global warming and sea level rise. The natural disasters causing serious consequences for human life, such as: Storms, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, desertification, high tides... increase in frequency, intensity and scale. In recent years, Ca Mau province as well as coastal provinces of Vietnam is under great influence due to the impacts of climate change. One of the most affected districts in Ca Mau province is Ngoc Hien district. The district has a geographic location with three sides bordering the sea, one side bordering the river, a completely isolated terrain. The terrain is flat, strongly divided by the system of natural rivers and canals and intertwined canals, so it is constantly flooded by the sea. Ngoc Hien district is characterized by a sub-equatorial monsoon climate, directly affected by irregular semi-diurnal regime. The main purpose of the paper is to assess coastal vulnerability due to the impact of climate change over time with GIS-based remote sensing images. Remote sensing data with multi-time characteristics, collected in many periods and covering a wide area is an effective tool for monitoring shoreline fluctuations in particular and land use status of the study area in general.

scholarly journals Characterizing past and future trend and frequency of extreme rainfall in urban catchments: a case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 288-305
Author(s):  
Philip Mzava ◽  
Patrick Valimba ◽  
Joel Nobert
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Dar Es Salaam ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Urban Catchments

Abstract Urban communities in developing countries are one of the most vulnerable areas to extreme rainfall events. The availability of local information on extreme rainfall is therefore critical for proper planning and management of urban flooding impacts. This study examined the past and future characteristics of extreme rainfall in the urban catchments of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Investigation of trends and frequency of annual, seasonal and extreme rainfall was conducted, with the period 1967–2017 taken as the past scenario and 2018–2050 as the future scenario; using data from four key ground-based weather stations and RCM data respectively. Mann–Kendall trend analysis and Sen's slope estimator were used in studying changes in rainfall variability. Frequencies of extreme rainfall events were modeled using the Generalized Pareto model. Overall, the results of trend analysis provided evidence of a significant increase in annual and seasonal maximum rainfall and intensification of extreme rainfall in the future under the RCP4.5 CO2 concentration scenario. It was determined that extreme rainfall will become more frequent in the future, and their intensities were observed to increase approximately between 20 and 25% relative to the past. The findings of this study may help to develop adaptation strategies for urban flood control in Dar es Salaam.

scholarly journals Future trends of COVID-19 disease outbreak in different states in India: a periodic regression analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bharath Prasad Cholanayakanahalli Thyagaraju ◽  
Srikantha Gowda ◽  
Sharanagouda Patil ◽  
Chandrashekar Srikantiah ◽  
Kuralayanapalya Puttahonnappa Suresh
Keyword(s):  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Economic Wealth ◽  
The Future ◽  
Periodic Regression ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 19) is the deadliest pandemic, and by August 2, >18.2 million population worldwide were infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus causing burden on human life and economic loss. Disease outbreak analysis has become a priority for the Indian government to initiate necessary healthcare measures in lowering the impact of this deadly pandemic viral disease. In this study, time series data for COVID-19 disease was extracted from the website www.covid19india.org, analysed by using periodic regression model, the expected number of cases till 02 October 2020 was predicted and to develop a stochastic models using periodic regression in the top 15 highly infected states in India. The analysis reported increasing pattern at initial days of prediction and showed a decreasing trend for the number of reporting cases, which may reduce in future days for states like West Bengal, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Telangana, Assam and Odisha. However, for the states of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh, showed a rapid phase of increase in disease outbreak that is likely to infect more population and indicates the pandemic nature of this disease over a period. Presently, Delhi shows a drastic reduction in the number of cases, that may increase in the future, which can be controlled if appropriate preventive measures are followed strictly and effectively. Our model highlights that continuous and constant efforts are needed for the prevention of new infections of the disease in all states that helps to effectively mitigate the disease and to allocate scarce resources effectively in the future that could improve the economic wealth in India.

Extreme rainfall events during and following heatwaves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Sauter ◽  
Christopher White ◽  
Hayley Fowler ◽  
Seth Westra
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Time Of Year ◽  
The Impact

<p>Heatwaves and extreme rainfall events are natural hazards that can have severe impacts on society. The relationship between temperature and extreme rainfall has received scientific attention with studies focussing on how single daily or sub-daily rainfall extremes are related to day-to-day temperature variability. However, the impact multi-day heatwaves have on sub-daily extreme rainfall events and how extreme rainfall properties change during different stages of a heatwave remains mostly unexplored.</p><p>In this study, we analyse sub-daily rainfall records across Australia, a country that experiences severe natural hazards on a frequent basis, and determine their extreme rainfall properties, such as rainfall intensity, duration and frequency during SH-summer heatwaves. These properties are then compared to extreme rainfall properties found outside heatwaves, but during the same time of year, to examine to what extent they differ from normal conditions. We also conduct a spatial analysis to investigate any spatial patterns that arise.</p><p>We find that rainfall breaking heatwaves is often more extreme than average rainfall during the same time of year. This is especially prominent on the eastern and south-eastern Australian coast, where frequency and intensity of sub-daily rainfall extremes show an increase during the last day or the day immediately after a heatwave. We also find that although during heatwaves the average rainfall amount and duration decreases, there is an increase in sub-daily rainfall intensity when compared to conditions outside heatwaves. This implies that even though Australian heatwaves are generally characterised by dry conditions, rainfall occurrences within heatwaves are more intense.</p><p>Both heatwaves and extreme rainfall events pose great challenges for many sectors such as agriculture, and especially if they occur together. Understanding how and to what degree these events co-occur could help mitigate the impacts caused by them.</p>

The Influence of Neighboring Jurisdictions Matters: Examining the Impact of Natural Disasters on Local Government Fiscal Accounts

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-463
Author(s):  
Yu Shi ◽  
Jingran Sun
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spatial Factors ◽  
General Fund ◽  
Relief Service ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of natural disasters on emergency and disaster relief service (EDRS) expenditure in the governmental funds for sixty-six counties in the state of Florida between 2009 and 2013. Specifically, it will explore whether the fiscal responses of local governments in these fiscal accounts are spatially dependent by using the spatial Durbin model. It finds that EDRS expenditures in the general fund and in the special revenue fund of one county are influenced by the levels of damage in neighboring counties. This study also finds a spillover effect of intergovernmental revenues from state and federal governments on these EDRS expenditures in fiscal accounts. These results suggest that the provision of public goods (such as disaster relief activities) may generate spatial spillover at the local level in the context of US federalism. Moreover, this study highlights the importance of accounting for spatial factors in the study with respect to local jurisdictions’ fiscal reactions to natural disasters.

scholarly journals The impact of atmospheric rivers on rainfall in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingxiang Shu ◽  
Asaad Y. Shamseldin ◽  
Evan Weller
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study quantifies the impact of atmospheric rivers (ARs) on rainfall in New Zealand. Using an automated AR detection algorithm, daily rainfall records from 654 rain gauges, and various atmospheric reanalysis datasets, we investigate the climatology of ARs, the characteristics of landfalling ARs, the contribution of ARs to annual and seasonal rainfall totals, and extreme rainfall events between 1979 and 2018 across the country. Results indicate that these filamentary synoptic features play an essential role in regional water resources and are responsible for many extreme rainfall events on the western side of mountainous areas and northern New Zealand. In these regions, depending on the season, 40–86% of the rainfall totals and 50–98% of extreme rainfall events are shown to be associated with ARs, with the largest contributions predominantly occurring during the austral summer. Furthermore, the median daily rainfall associated with ARs is 2–3 times than that associated with other storms. The results of this study extend the knowledge on the critical roles of ARs on hydrology and highlight the need for further investigation on the landfalling AR physical processes in relation to global circulation features and AR sources, and hydrological hazards caused by ARs in New Zealand.

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