scholarly journals Inference on Reported Vehicular Fatal Accidents in Nigeria Using a Bayesian Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-61
Author(s):  
Olalude Gbenga Adelekan ◽  
Mbata Ahamefula Ugochukwu ◽  
Amusan Ajitoni Simeon

The study introduced a special case of the Poisson-Generalized Gamma empirical Bayes model to survey states in Nigeria with a higher risk of fatal accidents. Monte Carlo error and stationary dynamic trace plots were used to validate model convergence and accuracy of the posterior estimates. The main results included the disease mappings that revealed Ebonyi had the highest risk of road vehicular fatal accidents in Nigeria with a relative risk estimate of 1.4120 while Abuja had the lowest risk with a relative risk estimate 0.5711. In terms of geopolitical region, the risk of road vehicular fatal accident is highest in South-South region with a relative risk estimate of 1.1850 while North-Central had the lowest risk with a relative risk estimate of 0.7846. The study is to aid planned government programs to ameliorate vehicular road carnage in Nigeria. 

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Li ◽  
Françoise Seillier-Moiseiwitsch

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxiao Song ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
Le Cai ◽  
Wei Liu ◽  
Wenlong Cui

ObjectiveThe purpose is to propose a serial of approach for estimation for disease risk for ILI in "small area" and present the risk values by spatio-temporal disease mapping or an interactive visualization with HTML format.IntroductionDisease mapping is a method used to descript the geographical variation in risk (heterogeneity of risk) and to provide the potential reason (factors or confounders) to explain the distribution. Possibly the most famous uses of disease mapping in epidemiology were the studies by John Snow of the cholera epidemics in London. Accurate estimation relative risk of small areas such as mortality and morbidity, by different age, ethnic group, interval and regions, is important for government agencies to identify hazards and mitigate disease burden. Recently, as the innovative algorithms and the available software, more and more disease risk index has been pouring out. This abstract will provide several estimation risk index, from raw incidence to model-based relative risks, and use visual approach to display them.MethodsAll the data are from a syndromic surveillance and real-time early warning system in the Yunnan province in the China. For brief introduction aim, we are using the ILI (Influenza-like illness) data in December 2017 in one county. The relative risks of disease in small area are including: raw incidence, a standardized morbidity ratio (SMR), Empirical Bayes smoothing estimation relative risk (EB-RR) and the Besag-York-Mollio model (BYM). The incidence in each small area is common used for descriptive the risk but fail to comparable directly since the different population at risk in each area. SMR is a good way to deal with this incomparability. But SMR can give rise to imprecisely estimate in areas with small populations. Empirical Bayes estimation approach has been used for smoothing purpose and can be seen as a compromise between relative risks and P-values. However, all above approaches are inept to have spatial or spatio-temporal structure in mind. BYM based the Bayesian inference can handle both the area-specific spatial structured component (such as intrinsic conditional autoregressive component) and the exchangeable random effect (unstructured component). All the analyses are implemented in the R software with INLA package (http://www.r-inla.org). The outcome of relative risk estimation with visual way and interactive maps showing are using ggplot2 and leaflet packages.Results1, the spatio-temporal raw cases of ILI from 2017/12/01 to 2017/12/31 is Fig.12. the SMR and EB-RR estimation RR of ILI are in Fig.2 and Fig.33. the most excited is the interactive visualization with HTML format for all the risk indexes is visited http://rpubs.com/ynsxx/424814 in detail. And the screenshot is Fig.4ConclusionsSmall area disease risk estimation is important for disease prevention and control. The faster function of computer with power R software can lead to advance in disease mapping, allowing for complex spatio-temporal models and communicate the results with visualization way. 


2000 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas I. Sashegyi ◽  
K. Stephen Brown ◽  
Patrick J. Farrell

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaesik Jeong ◽  
Lang Li ◽  
Yunlong Liu ◽  
Kenneth P Nephew ◽  
Tim Hui-Ming Huang ◽  
...  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document