scholarly journals Is Bangladesh Moving toward Herd Immunity? Current COVID-19 Perspective

2020 ◽  
pp. S63-S66
Author(s):  
Md Jamal Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Resource Limitations ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
The People ◽  
Previous Infection

Globally, a spectrum of infectious disease outbreaks like SARS in 2013, Ebola in 2014, MERS in 2015, and currently COVID-19, have affected us in the early phase of this century and coerced the people across the world to search the adamant control measures to avert the pandemic by any means. Unfortunately, high economic costs and resource-limitations, especially in low-and middle-income countries, restrict the adoption of the epidemic control measures in most cases. Since late December of 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been creating a breakneck public health concern worldwide. Currently, there is no effective drug to tackle the COVID-19 infection or vaccine yet to be approved. An old-age concept, herd immunity might be a prospective option in this uncertain situation to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. A minimum fraction of people need to be immunized through vaccination or previous infection to attain the herd immunity base that may build an obstacle to free the community from the disease. The insusceptible or indirectly immunized people can act as an invisible shield to impede the epidemic's dispersion anymore. Bangladesh Journal of Infectious Diseases, October 2020;7(suppl_2):S63-S66

scholarly journals Evolution of COVID-19 cases in selected low- and middle-income countries: past the herd immunity peak?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel S. Lexmond ◽  
Carlijn J.A. Nouwen ◽  
Othmane Fourtassi ◽  
J. Paul Callan
Keyword(s):  
T Cell ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
T Cell Immunity ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Cell Immunity ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Low And Middle Income

COVID-19 cases have peaked and declined rapidly in many low- and middle-income countries in recent months, in some cases after control measures were relaxed. For 11 such countries, the hypothesis that these countries have reached herd immunity warrants serious consideration. The Reed-Frost model, perhaps the simplest description for the evolution of cases in an epidemic, with only a few constant parameters, fits the observed case data remarkably well, and yields parameter values that are reasonable. The model results give infection rates of 45% and 79%, above the herd immunity thresholds for each country (under current social distancing conditions). Reproduction numbers range between 1.4 and 2.0, indicating that epidemic curves were “flattened” but not “suppressed”. Between 0.05% and 2.86% of cases have been detected according to the estimates – values which are consistent with findings from serological and T-cell immunity studies. Overall infection fatality ratios for two of three countries studied are lower than expected from reported infection fatality ratios by age (which are based on studies of several high-income countries). COVID-19 may have lower age-specific fatality risks in some countries, due to differences in immune-response, prior exposure to coronaviruses, disease characteristics or other factors. We find that the herd immunity hypothesis would not have fit the evolution of reported cases in several European countries, even just after the initial peaks – and subsequent resurgences of cases obviously prove that those countries have infection rates well below herd immunity levels. Our hypothesis that the 11 countries we studied have reached herd immunity should now be tested further, through serological and T-cell-immunity studies.

scholarly journals Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1928) ◽  
pp. 20200538
Author(s):  
Warren S. D. Tennant ◽  
Mike J. Tildesley ◽  
Simon E. F. Spencer ◽  
Matt J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
British India ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
The World ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.

scholarly journals Monitoring for outbreak associated excess mortality in an African city: Detection limits in Antananarivo, Madagascar

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fidisoa Rasambainarivo ◽  
Anjarasoa Rasoanomenjanahary ◽  
Joelinotahiana Hasina Rabarison ◽  
Tanjona Ramiadantsoa ◽  
Rila Ratovoson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
African City ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Notification System ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Measles Outbreak ◽  
Death Notification ◽  
Notification Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractQuantitative estimates of the impact of infectious disease outbreaks are required to develop measured policy responses. In many low- and middle-income countries, inadequate surveillance and incompleteness of death registration are important barriers. Here, we characterize how large an impact on mortality would have to be to be detectable using the uniquely detailed mortality notification data from the city of Antananarivo in Madagascar, with application to a recent measles outbreak. The weekly mortality rate of children during the 2018-2019 measles outbreak was 154% above the expected value at its peak, and the signal can be detected earlier in children than in the general population. This approach to detecting anomalies from expected baseline mortality allows us to delineate the prevalence of COVID-19 at which excess mortality would be detectable with the existing death notification system in the capital of Madagascar. Given current age-specific estimates of the COVID-19 fatality ratio and the age structure of the population in Antananarivo, we estimate that as few as 11 deaths per week in the 60-70 years age group (corresponding to an infection rate of approximately 1%) would detectably exceed the baseline. Data from 2020 will undergo necessary processing and quality control in the coming months. Our results provide a baseline for interpreting this information.

scholarly journals Two cases of cholera O1 in South Batinah, Oman, April 2019: lessons learned

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. e2019033
Author(s):  
Zayid K. Al Mayahi ◽  
Nasser Al-Shaqsi ◽  
Hamid A. Elmutashi ◽  
Ali Al-Dhoyani ◽  
Azza Al Hattali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infection Control ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Care Level ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Primary Care Level ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Detection Point

Cholera represents an ongoing threat to many low-income and middle-income countries, but some cases of cholera even occur in high-income countries. Therefore, to prevent or combat cholera outbreaks, it is necessary to maintain the capacity to rapidly detect cholera cases, implement infection control measures, and improve general hygiene in terms of the environment, water, and food. The 2 cases, 1 imported and 1 secondary, described herein are broadly indicative of areas that require improvement. These cases were missed at the primary health care stage, which should be the first detection point even for unusual diseases such as cholera, and the absence of strict infection control practices at the primary care level is believed to contribute to secondary cases of infection. This report also encourages countries to ensure that rapid diagnostic stool tests are available to enable quick detection, as well as to provide information to people travelling to areas where cholera is endemic.

The history and development of public health in low- and middle-income countries

2021 ◽  
pp. 33-46
Author(s):  
Than Sein
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Child Rearing ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Economic Productivity ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Public Health Professionals ◽  
The People ◽  
Low And Middle Income

The history and development of public health in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) shows that important breakthroughs in public health interventions have led to great improvements in economic development. Health determines economic productivity and prosperity, and the physical and emotional well- being of the people. The mindset of the population afflicted with a high infant mortality rate usually lacks the secure knowledge of its children’s longevity, witnesses higher fertility rates, and experiences the quality- quantity trade- off in child- rearing. Ever since the health- for- all movement was initiated over three decades ago, health, equity, and social justice remain the main themes of social and health policy. It is essential for all public health professionals to sustain these values, especially those in LMICs and the international community.

Does Population Longevity Attract Foreign Direct Investments in Developing Countries?

2020 ◽  
pp. 097215092091536
Author(s):  
Ayona Bhattacharjee
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Good Health ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Female Population ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Current Context

In a seminal paper, Alsan et al. (2006 , World Development, vol. 34, pp. 613–630) investigate the effect of population health on gross foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to the developing countries. The purpose of this article is to extend their work by exploring the causal effect of population longevity on attracting FDI flows to the middle-income countries over a longer and more recent period, while addressing endogeneity concerns through a novel instrumental variable (IV). The IV is constructed on the hypothesis of cross-country health convergence and generates plausibly exogenous variations in measures of longevity. Our IV estimates suggest that 1-year increase in a measure of longevity is likely to increase annual FDI inflows by at least 3 per cent in the sample of countries considered. Specifically, significant returns appear to emerge from increases in the longevity of the female population. In the current context of resurgence of FDI as a critical source of financial capital to the developing countries and the prevalence of frequent disease outbreaks, these results suggest that good health is not an end but a means to enable countries better integrate with the global markets.

Stakeholder Involvement in Outbreak Management

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
Magdalena M. Kraaij-Dirkzwager ◽  
Lianne G. C. Schol ◽  
Tjerk Jan Schuitmaker-Warnaar ◽  
Aura Timen ◽  
Jim E. Van Steenbergen
Keyword(s):  
Time Pressure ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Stakeholder Participation ◽  
Stakeholder Involvement ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Network Governance ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Outbreak Management ◽  
Collective Interest ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Infectious diseases remain a threat to public health, requiring the coordinated action of many stakeholders. Little has been written about stakeholder participation and approaches to sharing information, in dynamic contexts and under time pressure as is the case for infectious disease outbreaks. Communicable-disease specialists fear that delays in implementing control measures may occur if stakeholders are not included in the outbreak-management process. Two case studies described in this article show how the needs of stakeholders may vary with time and that early sharing of information takes priority over shared decision-making. The stakeholders itemized their needs and potential contributions in order to arrive at the collective interest of outbreak management. For this, the results suggest the potential for improvement through development of “network governance” including the effective sharing of information in large networks with varying needs. Outbreaks in which conflicting perceptions may occur among the stakeholders require particular attention.

Childhood Obesity: Nutritional Transition of Bangladesh

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-38
Author(s):  
SM Tajdit Rahman ◽  
Md Daharul Islam ◽  
Ranajit Sen Chowdhury ◽  
Abida Tarannum
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Childhood Obesity ◽  
Review Article ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Public Health Concern ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Childhood Nutrition ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Obesity Status ◽  
Nutritional Transition

Childhood obesity has been a major public health concern in many high income countries. In middle income countries, like Bangladesh, the coexistence of obesity and underweight makes the situation more grievous. It creates a transitional status in the childhood nutrition in Bangladesh. The priority is to identify the overall picture of obesity status in our country. In this review article we try to identify the transitional situation of childhood nutrition and the importance of finding out the overall picture of childhood obesity throughout the country. Bangladesh J Medicine Jan 2020; 31(1) : 37-38

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