scholarly journals Contrasting Geographic Patterns of Ignition Probability and Burn Severity in the Mojave Desert

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rob Klinger ◽  
Emma C. Underwood ◽  
Randy McKinley ◽  
Matthew L. Brooks

The extent and frequency of fire has increased in many arid systems over the last century, with a large proportion of area in some regions undergoing transitions to novel conditions. Portions of the Mojave Desert in southwestern North America have undergone such transitions, most often from woody to herbaceous-dominated systems. These transitions have often been attributed to the proliferation of invasive annual grasses that promote more frequent fire, but recent evidence indicates that transitions can also occur independent of fire frequency if burn severity is high. In addition, high probability of ignition (i.e., potentially high fire frequency) and high burn severity may not always be geographically related. Therefore, our goals were to: (1) map potential burn severity, fire frequency, and probability of ignition across the Mojave; and, (2) evaluate spatial association among predicted burn severity, fire frequency and probability of ignition. We first mapped perimeters of 250 wildfires > 405 ha that occurred from 1972 to 2010, then extracted data on fire frequency (number of times burned from 1972 to 2010), burn severity (the difference Normalized Burn Ratio), and 15 predictor variables representing physiography, climate, ignition, and vegetation. Maximum entropy was used to predict probability of ignition and Random Forest models were used to predict dNBR and fire frequency. Areas with high burn severity and high ignition probability had opposite spatial trends; areas with high burn severity were predicted to predominantly be in the northwest part of the region whereas areas with high ignition probability were predicted to be in the northeast. The models indicate the existence of a number of spatially structured but temporally dynamic fire regimes throughout the Mojave Desert. Two prevalent and ecologically significant regimes include one with frequent fires of low to moderate severity and another with infrequent fire of high severity. Areas with high fire frequency are currently limited in extent (<1% total area). However, cover of invasive grasses can remain high decades after a burn of high or moderate severity, so grass-fire cycles could develop in areas where there may be expectations of infrequent fire as well as those with relatively high fire frequency.

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (12) ◽  
pp. 951
Author(s):  
Rob Klinger ◽  
Randy McKinley ◽  
Matt Brooks

It is sometimes assumed the sparse and low statured vegetation in arid systems would limit the effectiveness of two remote-sensing derived indices of burn severity: the difference Normalised Burn Ratio (dNBR) and relativised difference Normalised Burn Ratio (RdNBR). We compared the relationship that dNBR, RdNBR and a ground-based index of burn severity (the Composite Burn Index, CBI) had with woody cover and woody density 1 year after burning in five fires that occurred in the Mojave Desert during 2005. Data were collected within 437 plots spanning geographic and elevation gradients representative of vegetation associations in low- (<1200m), mid- (1200 to 1700m) and high-elevation (>1700m) zones. Statistically, dNBR and RdNBR were both effective measures of severity in all three elevation zones; woody cover and density had steep exponential declines as the values of each remote-sensing index increased. We found though that dNBR was more ecologically interpretable than RdNBR and will likely be of most relevance in the Mojave Desert. It will be necessary though to test these, as well as other remote-sensing burn-severity indices, across more desert regions before inferences can be made of the generality of the patterns we observed.


2021 ◽  
pp. 073490412110301
Author(s):  
Yawei Wang ◽  
Gaowan Zou ◽  
Conglin Liu ◽  
Y Gao

The Halon 1301 fixed gas fire extinguishing system used in ship engine rooms has been banned from production all over the world, because halon destroys the ozone layer. Therefore, it is necessary to find an environmentally friendly, compatible and efficient alternative firefighting system. In this study, we performed fire extinguishing tests in an ISO9705 standard room for four alternative fire extinguishing agents, as well as Halon 1301. The fire extinguishing efficiency of each agent was determined based on its cooling effect, dilution effect of oxygen concentration, the extinguishing time of the oil pool fire and the re-ignition probability of the wood stack. The test results provide data support for the selection of alternatives of Halon 1301 from the aspect of fire extinguishing efficiency. Among these results, Novec 1230 had the best ability to put out the oil pool fire, and HFC-227ea suppressed the wood stack fire the best. The difference between the cooling ability of each fire extinguishing agent was small, and the inert gas (IG-541) displayed the best ability to dilute oxygen. Hot aerosol required the longest time to extinguish fire. Consequently, under the existing design standards, HFC-227ea had the better firefighting efficiency, more suitable to replace Halon 1301.


2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellis Q. Margolis

Piñon–juniper (PJ) fire regimes are generally characterised as infrequent high-severity. However, PJ ecosystems vary across a large geographic and bio-climatic range and little is known about one of the principal PJ functional types, PJ savannas. It is logical that (1) grass in PJ savannas could support frequent, low-severity fire and (2) exclusion of frequent fire could explain increased tree density in PJ savannas. To assess these hypotheses I used dendroecological methods to reconstruct fire history and forest structure in a PJ-dominated savanna. Evidence of high-severity fire was not observed. From 112 fire-scarred trees I reconstructed 87 fire years (1547–1899). Mean fire interval was 7.8 years for fires recorded at ≥2 sites. Tree establishment was negatively correlated with fire frequency (r=–0.74) and peak PJ establishment was synchronous with dry (unfavourable) conditions and a regime shift (decline) in fire frequency in the late 1800s. The collapse of the grass-fuelled, frequent, surface fire regime in this PJ savanna was likely the primary driver of current high tree density (mean=881treesha–1) that is >600% of the historical estimate. Variability in bio-climatic conditions likely drive variability in fire regimes across the wide range of PJ ecosystems.


2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra D. Syphard ◽  
Volker C. Radeloff ◽  
Nicholas S. Keuler ◽  
Robert S. Taylor ◽  
Todd J. Hawbaker ◽  
...  

Humans influence the frequency and spatial pattern of fire and contribute to altered fire regimes, but fuel loading is often the only factor considered when planning management activities to reduce fire hazard. Understanding both the human and biophysical landscape characteristics that explain how fire patterns vary should help to identify where fire is most likely to threaten values at risk. We used human and biophysical explanatory variables to model and map the spatial patterns of both fire ignitions and fire frequency in the Santa Monica Mountains, a human-dominated southern California landscape. Most fires in the study area are caused by humans, and our results showed that fire ignition patterns were strongly influenced by human variables. In particular, ignitions were most likely to occur close to roads, trails, and housing development but were also related to vegetation type. In contrast, biophysical variables related to climate and terrain (January temperature, transformed aspect, elevation, and slope) explained most of the variation in fire frequency. Although most ignitions occur close to human infrastructure, fires were more likely to spread when located farther from urban development. How far fires spread was ultimately related to biophysical variables, and the largest fires in southern California occurred as a function of wind speed, topography, and vegetation type. Overlaying predictive maps of fire ignitions and fire frequency may be useful for identifying high-risk areas that can be targeted for fire management actions.


2012 ◽  
Vol 78 (2) ◽  
pp. 353-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torben C. Rick ◽  
John S. Wah ◽  
Jon M. Erlandson

AbstractAt the close of the Pleistocene, fire regimes in North America changed significantly in response to climate change, megafaunal extinctions, anthropogenic burning and possibly, even an extraterrestrial impact. On California's Channel Islands, researchers have long debated the nature of late Pleistocene “fire areas,” discrete red zones in sedimentary deposits, interpreted by some as prehistoric mammoth-roasting pits created by humans. Further research found no evidence that these red zones were cultural in origin, and two hypotheses were advanced to explain their origin: natural fires and groundwater processes. Radiocarbon dating, X-ray diffraction analysis, and identification of charcoal from six red zones on Santa Rosa Island suggest that the studied features date between ~ 27,500 and 11,400 cal yr BP and resulted from burning or heating, not from groundwater processes. Our results show that fire was a component of late Pleistocene Channel Island ecology prior to and after human colonization of the islands, with no clear evidence for increased fire frequency coincident with Paleoindian settlement, extinction of pygmy mammoths, or a proposed Younger Dryas impact event.


2007 ◽  
Vol 363 (1501) ◽  
pp. 2351-2356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Granström ◽  
Mats Niklasson

Fire, being both a natural and cultural phenomenon, presents problems in disentangling the historical effect of humans from that of climate change. Here, we investigate the potential impact of humans on boreal fire regimes from a perspective of fuels, ignitions and culture. Two ways for a low technology culture to impact the fire regime are as follows: (i) by altering the number of ignitions and their spatial distribution and timing and (ii) by hindering fire spread. Different cultures should be expected to have quite different impacts on the fire regimes. In northern Fennoscandia, there is evidence for fire regime changes associated with the following: a reindeer herding culture associated with few ignitions above the natural; an era of cattle husbandry with dramatically increased ignitions and somewhat higher fire frequency; and a timber exploitation era with decreasing fire sizes and diminishing fire frequency. In other regions of the boreal zone, such schemes can look quite different, but we suggest that a close look at the resource extraction and land use of different cultures should be part of any analysis of past fire regimes.


2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1055-1072 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher S Fowler

Multiscale segregation measures have the potential to increase understanding of residential context and ultimately a wide range of social and spatial processes. By examining segregation at multiple scales, we have the opportunity to study it as more than the outcome of a single process or a measure describing a single contextual effect. Multiscale segregation encourages us to look for sorting processes and contextual effects operating at different scales and potentially even with different meanings. However, the complexity of multiscale measures introduces significant uncertainty about the role of underlying data and assumptions in producing observed outcomes, particularly at fine geographic scales. While traditional measures of segregation have been exposed to decades of scrutiny, multiscale measures are still relatively novel and less well understood. The theoretical contribution of this paper is to consider the implications of segregation as both an outcome and signifier of sorting processes at multiple scales. The empirical contribution is to consider how zoning and the degree of spatial association shape outcomes expressed as multiscale segregation measures. I examine the effects of different allocation strategies for measuring population at small scales by comparing four delineation methods. I find that the method chosen for allocating population to small areas matters, but that by the time observation units reach about 700 m2 most of the difference between methods has washed out. I also test the effect of changing the degree of assumed spatial association in generating multiscale segregation measures. I find that, as suggested by Reardon and O'Sullivan in their original exposition of their spatial segregation measure, this assumption has a relatively small effect on outcomes and is unlikely to shape substantive findings.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 117862212096919
Author(s):  
Miguel L Villarreal ◽  
José M Iniguez ◽  
Aaron D Flesch ◽  
Jamie S Sanderlin ◽  
Citlali Cortés Montaño ◽  
...  

The relationship between people and wildfire has always been paradoxical: fire is an essential ecological process and management tool, but can also be detrimental to life and property. Consequently, fire regimes have been modified throughout history through both intentional burning to promote benefits and active suppression to reduce risks. Reintroducing fire and its benefits back into the Sky Island mountains of the United States-Mexico borderlands has the potential to reduce adverse effects of altered fire regimes and build resilient ecosystems and human communities. To help guide regional fire restoration, we describe the frequency and severity of recent fires over a 32-year period (1985-2017) across a vast binational region in the United States-Mexico borderlands and assess variation in fire frequency and severity across climate gradients and in relation to vegetation and land tenure classes. We synthesize relevant literature on historical fire regimes within 9 major vegetation types and assess how observed contemporary fire characteristics vary from expectations based on historical patterns. Less than 28% of the study area burned during the observation period, excluding vegetation types in warmer climates that are not adapted to fire (eg, Desertscrub and Thornscrub). Average severity of recent fires was low despite some extreme outliers in cooler, wetter environments. Midway along regional temperature and precipitation gradients, approximately 64% of Pine-Oak Forests burned at least once, with fire frequencies that mainly corresponded to historical expectations on private lands in Mexico but less so on communal lands, suggesting the influence of land management. Fire frequency was higher than historical expectations in extremely cool and wet environments that support forest types such as Spruce-Fir, indicating threats to these systems possibly attributable to drought and other factors. In contrast, fires were absent or infrequent across large areas of Woodlands (~73% unburned) and Grasslands (~88% unburned) due possibly to overgrazing, which reduces abundance and continuity of fine fuels needed to carry fire. Our findings provide a new depiction of fire regimes in the Sky Islands that can help inform fire management, restoration, and regional conservation planning, fostered by local and traditional knowledge and collaboration among landowners and managers.


2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1026 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Carcaillet ◽  
Pierre J. H. Richard ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Bianca Fréchette ◽  
Adam A. Ali

The hypothesis that changes in fire frequency control the long-term dynamics of boreal forests is tested on the basis of paleodata. Sites with different wildfire histories at the regional scale should exhibit different vegetation trajectories. Mean fire intervals and vegetation reconstructions are based respectively on sedimentary charcoal and pollen from two small lakes, one in the Mixedwood boreal forests and the second in the Coniferous boreal forests. The pollen-inferred vegetation exhibits different trajectories of boreal forest dynamics after afforestation, whereas mean fire intervals have no significant or a delayed impact on the pollen data, either in terms of diversity or trajectories. These boreal forests appear resilient to changes in fire regimes, although subtle modifications can be highlighted. Vegetation compositions have converged during the last 1200 years with the decrease in mean fire intervals, owing to an increasing abundance of boreal species at the southern site (Mixedwood), whereas changes are less pronounced at the northern site (Coniferous). Although wildfire is a natural property of boreal ecosystems, this study does not support the hypothesis that changes in mean fire intervals are the key process controlling long-term vegetation transformation. Fluctuations in mean fire intervals alone do not explain the historical and current distribution of vegetation, but they may have accelerated the climatic process of borealisation, likely resulting from orbital forcing.


2003 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Keane ◽  
Geoffrey J. Cary ◽  
Russell Parsons

Spatial depictions of fire regimes are indispensable to fire management because they portray important characteristics of wildland fire, such as severity, intensity, and pattern, across a landscape that serves as important reference for future treatment activities. However, spatially explicit fire regime maps are difficult and costly to create requiring extensive expertise in fire history sampling, multivariate statistics, remotely sensed image classification, fire behaviour and effects, fuel dynamics, landscape ecology, simulation modelling, and geographical information systems (GIS). This paper first compares three common strategies for predicting fire regimes (classification, empirical, and simulation) using a 51�000�ha landscape in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Area of Montana, USA. Simulation modelling is identified as the best overall strategy with respect to developing temporally deep spatial fire patterns, but it has limitations. To illustrate these problems, we performed three simulation experiments using the LANDSUM spatial model to determine the relative importance of (1) simulation time span; (2) fire frequency parameters; and (3) fire size parameters on the simulation of landscape fire return interval. The model used to simulate fire regimes is also very important, so we compared two spatially explicit landscape fire succession models (LANDSUM and FIRESCAPE) to demonstrate differences between model predictions and limitations of each on a neutral landscape. FIRESCAPE was developed for simulating fire regimes in eucalypt forests of south-eastern Australia. Finally, challenges for future simulation and fire regime research are presented including field data, scale, fire regime variability, map obsolescence, and classification resolution.


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