scholarly journals Different Radial Growth Responses to Climate Change of Three Dominant Conifer Species in Temperate Forest, Northeastern China

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Wang ◽  
Yangcui Ning ◽  
Chunlan Liu ◽  
Peng Xu ◽  
Wentao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Temperate Forest ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Growth

We conducted dendroclimatological study on three dominant conifer tree species, Pinus koraiensis, Larix olgensis, and Picea jezoensis, in northeastern China for a better understanding of climate change impacts on temperate forest growth, by discussing the radial growth relationships of these tree species and projecting their radial growth trends under the future climate change scenarios. Based on the tree-ring samples collected from the upper altitude of Changbai Mountain, ring width chronologies were built to examine the growth relationships, and regression equations were established to project the future growth of the species under future climate change projected by the five general circulation models (GCMs) and four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although both temperature and precipitation showed varying degrees of relationships with growth of these three tree species, the limiting climate factors were species-specific. The tree-ring growth of P. koraiensis was limited by the summer temperature and precipitation at the end of growth, namely, significant positive correlations with the current July temperature and the previous September precipitation. Growth of L. olgensis was limited by the temperature before growing season, for its chronology was negatively correlated with the current February and previous December temperature (p < 0.05). The climatic conditions before and after growing season seemed to be the limiting factors of P. jezoensis growth, which was negatively correlated with the current February to April temperature and the current September temperature (p < 0.05), and positively correlated with the current August precipitation (p < 0.05). Under the gradual increasing of temperature predicted by the five GCMs and four RCP scenarios, the radial growth of P. Koraiensis will relatively increase, while that of L. olgensis and P. jezoensis will relatively decrease comparing to the base-line period (1981–2010). The specific growth–climate relationships and the future growth trends are species dependent. P. Koraiensis was the more suitable tree species for the forestation to maintain the sustainable forest in Changbai Mountain.

scholarly journals Future Climate Change Renders Unsuitable Conditions for Paramo Ecosystems in Colombia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 8373
Author(s):  
Matilda Cresso ◽  
Nicola Clerici ◽  
Adriana Sanchez ◽  
Fernando Jaramillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future

Paramo ecosystems are tropical alpine grasslands, located above 3000 m.a.s.l. in the Andean mountain range. Their unique vegetation and soil characteristics, in combination with low temperature and abundant precipitation, create the most advantageous conditions for regulating and storing surface and groundwater. However, increasing temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation due to greenhouse-gas-emission climate change are threatening these fragile environments. In this study, we used regional observations and downscaled data for precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature during the reference period 1960–1990 and simulations for the future period 2041–2060 to study the present and future extents of paramo ecosystems in the Chingaza National Park (CNP), nearby Colombia’s capital city, Bogotá. The historical data were used for establishing upper and lower precipitation and temperature boundaries to determine the locations where paramo ecosystems currently thrive. Our results found that increasing mean monthly temperatures and changing precipitation will render 39 to 52% of the current paramo extent in CNP unsuitable for these ecosystems during the dry season, and 13 to 34% during the wet season. The greatest loss of paramo area will occur during the dry season and for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5, when both temperature and precipitation boundaries are more prone to be exceeded. Although our initial estimates show the future impact on paramos and the water security of Bogotá due to climate change, complex internal and external interactions in paramo ecosystems make it essential to study other influencing climatic parameters (e.g., soil, topography, wind, etc.) apart from temperature and precipitation.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flows Under IPCC RCP Scenarios in the Mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 2090 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Huang ◽  
Yonggang Ma ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Min Luo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Gev Distribution ◽  
Extreme Flows ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Future

In the 21st century, heavier rainfall events and warmer temperatures in mountainous regions have significant impacts on hydrological processes and the occurrence of flood/drought extremes. Long-term modeling and peak flow detection of streamflow series are crucial in understanding the behavior of flood and drought. This study was conducted to analyze the impacts of future climate change on extreme flows in the Kaidu River Basin, northwestern China. The soil water assessment tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological modeling. The projected future precipitation and temperature under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the validated SWAT model. A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was employed to assess the probability distribution of flood events. The modeling results showed that the simulated discharge well matched the observed ones both in the calibration and validation periods. Comparing with the historical period, the ensemble with 15 general circulation models (GCMs) showed that the annual precipitation will increase by 7.9–16.1% in the future, and extreme precipitation events will increase in winter months. Future temperature will increase from 0.42 °C/10 a to 0.70 °C/10 a. However, with respect to the hydrological response to climate change, annual mean runoff will decrease by 21.5–40.0% under the mean conditions of the four RCP scenarios. A reduction in streamflow will occur in winter, while significantly increased discharge will occur from April to May. In addition, designed floods for return periods of five, 10 and 20 years in the future, as predicted by the GEV distribution, will decrease by 3–20% over the entire Kaidu watershed compared to those in the historical period. The results will be used to help local water resource management with hazard warning and flood control.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation Over India

2021 ◽  
pp. 121-142
Author(s):  
Sridhara Nayak ◽  
Tetsuya Takemi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future

AbstractThis study explores a comprehensive assessment of future climate change in terms of the climatologies, distribution patterns, annual cycles, and frequency distributions of temperature and precipitation over India by analyzing 190 mega-ensemble experimental results. The results indicate that the annual mean surface temperatures over Indian regions are typically 25 ℃ or higher in the present climate (1951–2010) and are expected to increase by 3–5 ℃ in the future climate (2051–2110). Some desert regions in the west and tropical humid climate types in the central and south regions of the country show possible temperature increases of 4–5 ℃, while the temperatures over the subtropical humid climates in the north and east regions of the country show increases of 3–4 ℃. The precipitation amounts over the arid and semiarid climate types in the western region and over some tropical rainforest climate zones in the southwest region show increases of 0.5 mm d−1 in the future climate, and the precipitation amounts over the temperate, rainy climate types in the northeast region show increases of more than 1 mm d−1. This study also discusses future changes in various climatic variables, including vertical velocity, air temperature, specific humidity, cloud cover, and relative humidity.

scholarly journals Variations of Climate-Growth Response of Major Conifers at Upper Distributional Limits in Shika Snow Mountain, Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Zhang ◽  
Dingcai Yin ◽  
Mei Sun ◽  
Hang Wang ◽  
Kun Tian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Growth Response ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
The Common ◽  
Distributional Limits

Improved understanding of climate-growth relationships of multi-species is fundamental to understand and predict response of forest growth to future climate change. Forests are mainly composed of conifers in Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, but variations of growth response to climates among the species are not well understood. To detect growth response of multiple species to climate change, we developed residual chronologies of four major conifers, i.e. Abies georgei, Picea likiangensis, Pinus densata and Larix potaninii at upper distributional limits in Shika Snow Mountain. By using dendroclimatology method, we analyzed correlations between the residual chronologies and climate variables. The results showed that conifer radial growth was influenced by both temperature and precipitation in Shika Snow Mountain. Previous November temperature, previous July mean maximum temperature (Tmax) and current June precipitation were the common climatic factors, which had consistent influences on radial growth of four species. Temperature in previous post growing season (September–October) and current growing season (June-August), and precipitation in previous August were the common climatic factors, which had divergent impacts on four species radial growth. Current May Tmax and early growing season (April-May) precipitation showed positive and negative influences on growth of P. likiangensis, respectively. Temperature in current post growing season positively affected growth of A. georgei. According to the prediction of climate models and our understanding in growth response of four species to climate variables, we may understand growth response to climate change at species level. It is difficult to predict future forest growth in the study area, since future climate change might cause both increases or decreases for four species and indirect effects of climate change on forest should be considered.

What we can learn from the parallels between the COVID-19 and the future climate change crises

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubén D. Manzanedo ◽  
Peter Manning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Substantial Portion ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
The Future ◽  
Behavioral Norm ◽  
Climate Crisis ◽  
Global Population

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak pandemic is now a global crisis. It has caused 1.6+ million confirmed cases and 100 000+ deaths at the time of writing and triggered unprecedented preventative measures that have put a substantial portion of the global population under confinement, imposed isolation, and established ‘social distancing’ as a new global behavioral norm. The COVID-19 crisis has affected all aspects of everyday life and work, while also threatening the health of the global economy. This crisis offers also an unprecedented view of what the global climate crisis may look like. In fact, some of the parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and what we expect from the looming global climate emergency are remarkable. Reflecting upon the most challenging aspects of today’s crisis and how they compare with those expected from the climate change emergency may help us better prepare for the future.

scholarly journals Comparison of the Radial Growth Response of Picea crassifolia to Climate Change in Different Regions of the Central and Eastern Qilian Mountains

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1015
Author(s):  
Xuan Wu ◽  
Liang Jiao ◽  
Dashi Du ◽  
Changliang Qi ◽  
Ruhong Xue
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Central Region ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Qilian Mountains ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Picea Crassifolia ◽  
The Qilian Mountains

It is important to explore the responses of radial tree growth in different regions to understand growth patterns and to enhance forest management and protection with climate change. We constructed tree ring width chronologies of Picea crassifolia from different regions of the Qilian Mountains of northwest China. We used Pearson correlation and moving correlation to analyze the main climate factors limiting radial growth of trees and the temporal stability of the growth–climate relationship, while spatial correlation is the result of further testing the first two terms in space. The conclusions were as follows: (1) Radial growth had different trends, showing an increasing followed by a decreasing trend in the central region, a continuously increasing trend in the eastern region, and a gradually decreasing trend in the isolated mountain. (2) Radial tree growth in the central region and isolated mountains was constrained by drought stress, and tree growth in the central region was significantly negatively correlated with growing season temperature. Isolated mountains showed a significant negative correlation with mean minimum of growing season and a significant positive correlation with total precipitation. (3) Temporal dynamic responses of radial growth in the central region to the temperatures and SPEI (the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) in the growing season were unstable, the isolated mountains to total precipitation was unstable, and that to SPEI was stable. The results of this study suggest that scientific management and maintenance plans of the forest ecosystem should be developed according to the response and growth patterns of the Qinghai spruce to climate change in different regions of the Qilian Mountains.

scholarly journals Characterizing Growing Season Length of Subtropical Coniferous Forests with a Phenological Model

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Yuan Gong ◽  
Christina L. Staudhammer ◽  
Susanne Wiesner ◽  
Gregory Starr ◽  
Yinlong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Prescribed Fire ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Longleaf Pine ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Soil Water Availability ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Phenological Model

Understanding plant phenological change is of great concern in the context of global climate change. Phenological models can aid in understanding and predicting growing season changes and can be parameterized with gross primary production (GPP) estimated using the eddy covariance (EC) technique. This study used nine years of EC-derived GPP data from three mature subtropical longleaf pine forests in the southeastern United States with differing soil water holding capacity in combination with site-specific micrometeorological data to parameterize a photosynthesis-based phenological model. We evaluated how weather conditions and prescribed fire led to variation in the ecosystem phenological processes. The results suggest that soil water availability had an effect on phenology, and greater soil water availability was associated with a longer growing season (LOS). We also observed that prescribed fire, a common forest management activity in the region, had a limited impact on phenological processes. Dormant season fire had no significant effect on phenological processes by site, but we observed differences in the start of the growing season (SOS) between fire and non-fire years. Fire delayed SOS by 10 d ± 5 d (SE), and this effect was greater with higher soil water availability, extending SOS by 18 d on average. Fire was also associated with increased sensitivity of spring phenology to radiation and air temperature. We found that interannual climate change and periodic weather anomalies (flood, short-term drought, and long-term drought), controlled annual ecosystem phenological processes more than prescribed fire. When water availability increased following short-term summer drought, the growing season was extended. With future climate change, subtropical areas of the Southeastern US are expected to experience more frequent short-term droughts, which could shorten the region’s growing season and lead to a reduction in the longleaf pine ecosystem’s carbon sequestration capacity.

Climate, ticks and disease

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Disease Ecology ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
The World ◽  
Host Pathogen ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This book is a collection of 77 expert opinions arranged in three sections. Section 1 on "Climate" sets the scene, including predictions of future climate change, how climate change affects ecosystems, and how to model projections of the spatial distribution of ticks and tick-borne infections under different climate change scenarios. Section 2 on "Ticks" focuses on ticks (although tick-borne pathogens creep in) and whether or not changes in climate affect the tick biosphere, from physiology to ecology. Section 3 on "Disease" focuses on the tick-host-pathogen biosphere, ranging from the triangle of tick-host-pathogen molecular interactions to disease ecology in various regions and ecosystems of the world. Each of these three sections ends with a synopsis that aims to give a brief overview of all the expert opinions within the section. The book concludes with Section 4 (Final Synopsis and Future Predictions). This synopsis attempts to summarize evidence provided by the experts of tangible impacts of climate change on ticks and tick-borne infections. In constructing their expert opinions, contributors give their views on what the future might hold. The final synopsis provides a snapshot of their expert thoughts on the future.

scholarly journals Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential : (2) Future Prospect of the Potential Under Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaewon Jung ◽  
Sungeun Jung ◽  
Junhyeong Lee ◽  
Myungjin Lee ◽  
Hung Soo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Future Prospect ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Small Hydropower ◽  
The Future

The interest in renewable energy to replace fossil fuel is increasing as the problem caused by climate change become more severe. Small hydropower (SHP) is evaluated as a resource with high development value because of its high energy density compared to other renewable energy sources. SHP may be an attractive and sustainable power generation environmental perspective because of its potential to be found in small rivers and streams. The power generation potential could be estimated based on the discharge in the river basin. Since the river discharge depends on the climate conditions, the hydropower generation potential changes sensitively according to climate variability. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the SHP potential in consideration of future climate change. In this study, the future prospect of SHP potential is simulated for the period of 2021 to 2100 considering the climate change in three hydropower plants of Deoksong, Hanseok, and Socheon stations, Korea. As the results, SHP potential for the near future (2021 to 2040) shows a tendency to be increased and the highest increase is 23.4% at the Deoksong SPH plant. Through the result of future prospect, we have shown that hydroelectric power generation capacity or SHP potential will be increased in the future. Therefore, we believe that it is necessary to revitalize the development of SHP in order to expand the use of renewable energy. Also, a methodology presented in this study could be used for the future prospect of the small hydropower potential.

scholarly journals Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over mainland Southeast Asia by CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Supharatid ◽  
J. Nafung ◽  
T. Aribarg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Five mainland SEA countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand) are threatened by climate change. Here, the latest 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is employed to examine future climate change in this region under two SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The bias-corrected multi-model ensemble (MME) projects a warming (wetting) over Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand by 1.88–3.89, 2.04–4.22, 1.88–4.09, 2.03–4.25, and 1.90–3.96 °C (8.76–20.47, 12.69–21.10, 9.54–21.10, 13.47–22.12, and 7.03–15.17%) in the 21st century with larger values found under SSP5-8.5 than SSP2-4.5. The MME model displays approximately triple the current rainfall during the boreal summer. Overall, there are robust increases in rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon (3.41–3.44, 8.44–9.53, and 10.89–17.59%) and the Northeast Monsoon (−2.58 to 0.78, −0.43 to 2.81, and 2.32 to 5.45%). The effectiveness of anticipated climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under SSP2-4.5 results in slowing down the warming trends and decreasing precipitation trends after 2050. All these findings imply that member countries of mainland SEA need to prepare for appropriate adaptation measures in response to the changing climate.

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