scholarly journals A Roadmap for the Restoration of Mediterranean Macroalgal Forests

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Cebrian ◽  
Laura Tamburello ◽  
Jana Verdura ◽  
Giuseppe Guarnieri ◽  
Alba Medrano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Forest Recovery ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Invertebrate Species ◽  
Promising Strategy ◽  
Eu Project ◽  
Mesophotic Reef

Canopy-forming macroalgae play a crucial role in coastal primary production and nutrient cycling, providing food, shelter, nurseries, and habitat for many vertebrate and invertebrate species. However, macroalgal forests are in decline in various places and natural recovery is almost impossible when populations become locally extinct. Hence, active restoration emerges as the most promising strategy to rebuild disappeared forests. In this regard, significant efforts have been made by several EU institutions to research new restoration tools for shallow and mesophotic reef habitats (e.g., MERCES EU project, AFRIMED, and ROCPOP-life) and effective techniques have subsequently been proposed to promote self-sustaining populations. Recent research indicates that macroalgal forest recovery requires a broad spectrum of measures, ranging from mitigating human impacts to restoring the most degraded populations and habitats, and that the viability of large restoration actions is compromised by ongoing human pressures (e.g., pollution, overgrazing, and climate change). We propose a roadmap for Mediterranean macroalgal restoration to assist researchers and stakeholders in decision-making, considering the most effective methods in terms of cost and cost-effectiveness, and taking background environmental conditions and potential threats into account. Last, the challenges currently faced by the restoration of rocky coastal ecosystems under changing climate conditions are also discussed.

scholarly journals How climate change might affect tree regeneration following fire at northern latitudes: a review

New Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 543-571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominique Boucher ◽  
Sylvie Gauthier ◽  
Nelson Thiffault ◽  
William Marchand ◽  
Martin Girardin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Populus Tremuloides ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Tree Regeneration ◽  
Forest Recovery ◽  
Water Deficits ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract Climate change is projected to increase fire severity and frequency in the boreal forest, but it could also directly affect post-fire recruitment processes by impacting seed production, germination, and seedling growth and survival. We reviewed current knowledge regarding the effects of high temperatures and water deficits on post-fire recruitment processes of four major tree species (Picea mariana, Pinus banksiana, Populus tremuloides and Betula papyrifera) in order to anticipate the effects of climate change on forest recovery following fire in the boreal biome. We also produced maps of future vulnerability of post-fire recruitment by combining tree distributions in Canada with projections of temperature, moisture index and fire regime for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods. Although our review reveals that information is lacking for some regeneration stages, it highlights the response variability to climate conditions between species. The recruitment process of black spruce is likely to be the most affected by rising temperatures and water deficits, but more tolerant species are also at risk of being impacted by projected climate conditions. Our maps suggest that in eastern Canada, tree species will be vulnerable mainly to projected increases in temperature, while forests will be affected mostly by droughts in western Canada. Conifer-dominated forests are at risk of becoming less productive than they currently are, and eventually, timber supplies from deciduous species-dominated forests could also decrease. Our vulnerability maps are useful for prioritizing areas where regeneration monitoring efforts and adaptive measures could be developed.

scholarly journals Bottom-Up Assessment of Climate Risk and the Robustness of Proposed Flood Management Strategies in the American River, CA

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 907
Author(s):  
Kara DiFrancesco ◽  
Alix Gitelman ◽  
David Purkey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
American River ◽  
The Face ◽  
System Robustness

The hydrologic nonstationarity and uncertainty associated with climate change requires new decision-making methods to incorporate climate change impacts into flood frequency and flood risk analyses. To aid decision-making under climate change, we developed a bottom-up approach for assessing the performance of flood management systems under climate uncertainty and nonstationarity. The developed bottom-up approach was applied to the American River, CA, USA flood management system by first identifying the sensitivity and vulnerability of the system to different climates. To do this, we developed a climate response surface by calculating and plotting Expected Annual Damages (EAD, $/year) under different flood regimes. Next, we determined a range of plausible future climate change and flood frequency scenarios by applying Bayesian statistical methods to projected future flows derived from a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced with Global Circulation Model (GCM) output. We measured system robustness as the portion of plausible future scenarios under which the current flood system could meet its performance goal. Using this approach, we then evaluated the robustness of four proposed management strategies in the 2012 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan in terms of both flood risk and cost-effectiveness, to assess the performance of the strategies in the face of climate risks. Results indicated that the high sensitivity of the expected damages to changes in flood regimes makes the system extremely vulnerable to a large portion of the plausible range of future flood conditions. The management strategy that includes a combination of nature-based flood management actions along with engineered structures yields the greatest potential to increase system robustness in terms of maintaining EAD below an acceptable risk threshold. However, this strategy still leaves the system vulnerable to a wide range of plausible future conditions. As flood frequency regimes increase in intensity from the current conditions, the cost-effectiveness of the management strategies increases, to a point, before decreasing. This bottom up analysis demonstrated a viable decision-making approach for water managers in the face of uncertain and changing future conditions. Neglecting to use such an approach and omitting climate considerations from water resource planning could lead to strategies that do not perform as expected or which actually lead to mal-adaptations, increasing vulnerability to climate change.

scholarly journals Water restrictions under climate change: a Rhône–Mediterranean perspective combining bottom-up and top-down approaches

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. 3683-3710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Sauquet ◽  
Bastien Richard ◽  
Alexandre Devers ◽  
Christel Prudhomme
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Critical Threshold ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Water Restrictions ◽  
And Performance

Abstract. Drought management plans (DMPs) require an overview of future climate conditions for ensuring long-term relevance of existing decision-making processes. To that end, impact studies are expected to best reproduce decision-making needs linked with catchment intrinsic sensitivity to climate change. The objective of this study is to apply a risk-based approach through sensitivity, exposure and performance assessments to identify where and when, due to climate change, access to surface water constrained by legally binding water restrictions (WRs) may question agricultural activities. After inspection of legally binding WRs from the DMPs in the Rhône–Mediterranean (RM) district, a framework to derive WR durations was developed based on harmonized low-flow indicators. Whilst the framework could not perfectly reproduce all WR ordered by state services, as deviations from sociopolitical factors could not be included, it enabled the identification of most WRs under the current baseline and the quantification of the sensitivity of WR duration to a wide range of perturbed climates for 106 catchments. Four classes of responses were found across the RM district. The information provided by the national system of compensation to farmers during the 2011 drought was used to define a critical threshold of acceptable WR that is related to the current activities over the RM district. The study finally concluded that catchments in mountainous areas, highly sensitive to temperature changes, are also the most predisposed to future restrictions under projected climate changes considering current DMPs, whilst catchments around the Mediterranean Sea were found to be mainly sensitive to precipitation changes and irrigation use was less vulnerable to projected climatic changes. The tools developed enable a rapid assessment of the effectiveness of current DMPs under climate change and can be used to prioritize review of the plans for those most vulnerable basins.

scholarly journals Adaptation techniques of an urban planning due to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 263 ◽  
pp. 05013
Author(s):  
Natalia Bakaeva ◽  
Maria Suvorova ◽  
Roman Sheps ◽  
Alexandra Kormina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Environment ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
New Challenges

In this paper there is reviewed a concept of adaptation of an urban planning to the changing climate conditions. The statements of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, UN FCCC, which are actively discussed these days in conditions of new challenges, determine a necessity of applying scientifically reasoned approaches to the landscape development and city transformation considering the climate change in the urban environment. There are discussed statements of climate change adapted concept of the urban planning and are reviewed examples of urban solutions corresponding to these statements. The authors are convinced that problem solving of the climate change adapted urban planning requires an interdisciplinary approach, embracing multiple scientific directions such as ecological, urban, social, technical and technological. In this aspect the concept of adaptation the urban planning to volatile climate conditions represent a long-term strategy of the urban development, which is, first of all, requires a preparation of a roadmap and then decision making, which would conduce to forming a fully comfortable and safe urban environment.

scholarly journals Water restrictions under climate change: a Rhone-Mediterranean perspective combining ‘bottom up’ and ‘top- down’ approaches

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Sauquet ◽  
Bastien Richard ◽  
Alexandre Devers ◽  
Christel Prudhomme
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Critical Threshold ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Water Restrictions

Abstract. Drought management plans (DMPs) require an overview of future climate conditions for ensuring long term relevance of existing decision-making processes. To that end, impact studies are expected to best reproduce decision-making needs linked with catchment intrinsic sensitivity to climate change. The objective of this study is to apply a risk-based approach through sensitivity, exposure and sustainability assessments to evaluate the vulnerability of current DMPs operating in the Rhône-Méditerranée (RM) district to future climate projections. After inspection of legally-binding water restrictions (WR) from the DMPs in the RM district, a framework to derive WR durations was developed based on harmonized low-flow indicators. Whilst the framework could not perfectly reproduce all WR ordered by state services, as deviations from socio-political factors could not be included, it enabled to identify most WRs under current baseline, and to quantify the sensitivity of WR duration to a wide range of perturbed climates for 106 catchments. Four classes of responses were found across the RM district. Using the drought of 2011 to define a critical threshold of acceptable WR, the analysis showed that catchments in mountainous areas, highly sensitive to temperature changes, are also the most predisposed to future restrictions under projected climate changes considering current DMPs whilst catchments around the Mediterranean Sea, mainly sensitive to precipitation changes, were less vulnerable to projected climatic changes. The tools developed enable a rapid assessment of the effectiveness of current DMPs under climate change, and can be used to prioritize review of the plans for those most vulnerable basins.

Megadrought and Collapse

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
15Th Century ◽  
Societal Collapse ◽  
The Face ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Paleoclimate Proxy ◽  
Habitat Tracking

This is the first book to treat the major examples of megadrought and societal collapse, from the late Pleistocene end of hunter–gatherer culture and origins of cultivation to the 15th century AD fall of the Khmer Empire capital at Angkor, and ranging from the Near East to South America. Previous enquiries have stressed the possible multiple and internal causes of collapse, such overpopulation, overexploitation of resources, warfare, and poor leadership and decision-making. In contrast, Megadrought and Collapse presents case studies of nine major episodes of societal collapse in which megadrought was the major and independent cause of societal collapse. In each case the most recent paleoclimatic evidence for megadroughts, multiple decades to multiple centuries in duration, is presented alongside the archaeological records for synchronous societal collapse. The megadrought data are derived from paleoclimate proxy sources (lake, marine, and glacial cores; speleothems, or cave stalagmites; and tree-rings) and are explained by researchers directly engaged in their analysis. Researchers directly responsible for them discuss the relevant current archaeological records. Two arguments are developed through these case studies. The first is that societal collapse in different time periods and regions and at levels of social complexity ranging from simple foragers to complex empires would not have occurred without megadrought. The second is that similar responses to megadrought extend across these historical episodes: societal collapse in the face of insurmountable climate change, abandonment of settlements and regions, and habitat tracking to sustainable agricultural landscapes. As we confront megadrought today, and in the likely future, Megadrought and Collapse brings together the latest contributions to our understanding of past societal responses to the crisis on an equally global and diverse scale.

scholarly journals Complete genomes of two extinct New Zealand passerines show responses to climate fluctuations but no evidence for genomic erosion prior to extinction

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 20190491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Dussex ◽  
Johanna von Seth ◽  
Michael Knapp ◽  
Olga Kardailsky ◽  
Bruce C. Robertson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Oceanic Islands ◽  
Genomic Diversity ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
Forest Clearing ◽  
Mammalian Predators ◽  
Demographic Trajectories ◽  
Human Climate

Human intervention, pre-human climate change (or a combination of both), as well as genetic effects, contribute to species extinctions. While many species from oceanic islands have gone extinct due to direct human impacts, the effects of pre-human climate change and human settlement on the genomic diversity of insular species and the role that loss of genomic diversity played in their extinctions remains largely unexplored. To address this question, we sequenced whole genomes of two extinct New Zealand passerines, the huia ( Heteralocha acutirostris ) and South Island kōkako ( Callaeas cinereus ). Both species showed similar demographic trajectories throughout the Pleistocene. However, the South Island kōkako continued to decline after the last glaciation, while the huia experienced some recovery. Moreover, there was no indication of inbreeding resulting from recent mating among closely related individuals in either species. This latter result indicates that population fragmentation associated with forest clearing by Maōri may not have been strong enough to lead to an increase in inbreeding and exposure to genomic erosion. While genomic erosion may not have directly contributed to their extinctions, further habitat fragmentation and the introduction of mammalian predators by Europeans may have been an important driver of extinction in huia and South Island kōkako.

scholarly journals A referral aid for smoking cessation interventions in primary care: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniëlle N. Zijlstra ◽  
Jean W.M. Muris ◽  
Catherine Bolman ◽  
J. Mathis Elling ◽  
Vera E.R.A. Knapen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Informed Decision Making

Abstract Background: To expedite the use of evidence-based smoking cessation interventions (EBSCIs) in primary care and to thereby increase the number of successful quit attempts, a referral aid was developed. This aid aims to optimize the referral to and use of EBSCIs in primary care and to increase adherence to Dutch guidelines for smoking cessation. Methods: Practice nurses (PNs) will be randomly allocated to an experimental condition or control condition, and will then recruit smoking patients who show a willingness to quit smoking within six months. PNs allocated to the experimental condition will provide smoking cessation guidance in accordance with the referral aid. Patients from both conditions will receive questionnaires at baseline and after six months. Cessation effectiveness will be tested via multilevel logistic regression analyses. Multiple imputations as well as intention to treat analysis will be performed. Intervention appreciation and level of informed decision-making will be compared using analysis of (co)variance. Predictors for appreciation and informed decision-making will be assessed using multiple linear regression analysis and/or structural equation modeling. Finally, a cost-effectiveness study will be conducted. Discussion: This paper describes the study design for the development and evaluation of an information and decision tool to support PNs in their guidance of smoking patients and their referral to EBSCIs. The study aims to provide insight into the (cost) effectiveness of an intervention aimed at expediting the use of EBSCIs in primary care.

scholarly journals Disentangling the Legacies of Climate and Management on Tree Growth

Ecosystems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Marqués ◽  
Drew M. P. Peltier ◽  
J. Julio Camarero ◽  
Miguel A. Zavala ◽  
Jaime Madrigal-González ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Ring Formation ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Ecological Memory ◽  
Historical Forest

AbstractLegacies of past climate conditions and historical management govern forest productivity and tree growth. Understanding how these processes interact and the timescales over which they influence tree growth is critical to assess forest vulnerability to climate change. Yet, few studies address this issue, likely because integrated long-term records of both growth and forest management are uncommon. We applied the stochastic antecedent modelling (SAM) framework to annual tree-ring widths from mixed forests to recover the ecological memory of tree growth. We quantified the effects of antecedent temperature and precipitation up to 4 years preceding the year of ring formation and integrated management effects with records of harvesting intensity from historical forest management archives. The SAM approach uncovered important time periods most influential to growth, typically the warmer and drier months or seasons, but variation among species and sites emerged. Silver fir responded primarily to past climate conditions (25–50 months prior to the year of ring formation), while European beech and Scots pine responded mostly to climate conditions during the year of ring formation and the previous year, although these responses varied among sites. Past management and climate interacted in such a way that harvesting promoted growth in young silver fir under wet and warm conditions and in old European beech under drier and cooler conditions. Our study shows that the ecological memory associated with climate legacies and historical forest management is species-specific and context-dependent, suggesting that both aspects are needed to properly evaluate forest functioning under climate change.

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document