scholarly journals European Grapevine Moth and Vitis vinifera L. Phenology in the Douro Region: (A)synchrony and Climate Scenarios

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 98
Author(s):  
Samuel Reis ◽  
Joana Martins ◽  
Fátima Gonçalves ◽  
Cristina Carlos ◽  
João A. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vitis Vinifera ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Lobesia Botrana ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Vitis Vinifera L ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
European Grapevine Moth ◽  
The Third ◽  
Grapevine Moth

The European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana; Denis and Schiffermüller, 1775) is considered a key pest for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in the Douro Region, Portugal. The phenology of both the grapevine and the pest has changed in the last decades due to the increase in temperature. Here, we assess the potential impact of climate change on the (a)synchrony of both species. The results show that the phenological stages (budburst, flowering and veraison) undergo an advancement throughout the region (at an ~1 km resolution) under a climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP8.5) for the period 2051–2080, with respect to the historic period (1989–2015). For cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca, the budburst advances up to 14 days, whereas for flowering and veraison the advancements are up to 10 days (mainly at low elevations along the Douro River). For the phenology of Lobesia botrana, earliness was also verified in the three flights (consequently there may be more generations per year), covering the entire region. Furthermore, the third flight advances further compared to the others. For both varieties, the interaction between the third flight (beginning and peak) and the veraison date is the most relevant modification under the future climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 2051–2080). The aforementioned outcomes from the phenology models help to better understand the possible shifts of both trophic levels in the region under future climate, giving insights into their future interactions.

CHILDHOOD ASTHMA PROJECTIONS FOR ATLANTA UNDER A FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

Epidemiology ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. S97
Author(s):  
Jonathan Patz ◽  
Howard Frumkin ◽  
Michell Klein ◽  
Michelle Bell ◽  
Hugh Ellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Childhood Asthma ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Future Climate Change Scenario

scholarly journals Potential biological control of the pupal stage of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana by the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria pseudobassiana in the winter season in Chile

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabiola Altimira ◽  
Nathalia De La Barra ◽  
Patricia Rebufel ◽  
Sylvana Soto ◽  
Rodrigo Soto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Entomopathogenic Fungus ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Pupal Stage ◽  
Lobesia Botrana ◽  
Vitis Vinifera L ◽  
European Grapevine Moth ◽  
Biocontrol Activity ◽  
Grapevine Moth ◽  
Chemical Pesticides

Abstract Objective: Lobesia botrana, the European grapevine moth, affects Vitis vinifera L. and other species of economic importance in a number of countries through damage caused by its larvae in berries and associated secondary diseases such as Botrytis cinerea . Control of the moth in urban areas is difficult due to poor chemical management of infested plants in houses. Additionally, in winter, L. botrana is in its pupal stage covered with a cocoon that prevents the penetration of chemical pesticides. For this reason, the objective of this work was to control the pupal stage with a formulation based on the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria pseudobassiana in urban areas. Results: The strain RGM 1747 was identified as B. pseudobassiana by multilocus sequence analysis . The biocontrol activity of this formulated fungus against the infestation of vines with breeding pupae without cocoons showed 100% infection 21 days after inoculation under winter conditions. Finally, the biocontrol activity of the formulated fungus against natural infestations of L. botrana in winter in urban areas reached an efficacy of 51%. This result suggests that the B. pseudobassiana formulation is able to penetrate the cocoon and contributes to the integrated pest management of L. botrana .

scholarly journals European grapevine moth in the Douro region: voltinism and climatic scenarios

OENO One ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 335-351
Author(s):  
Samuel Reis ◽  
Joana Martins ◽  
Fátima Gonçalves ◽  
Cristina Carlos ◽  
João A. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Lobesia Botrana ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
European Grapevine Moth ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Grapevine Moth

The European grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is considered to be the main pest in the vineyards of the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) due to the economic losses it can cause. Damage is caused by the larvae of this pest feeding on grape clusters, rendering them susceptible to Botrytis cinerea in mid-season and leading to the development of primary and secondary rot at harvest. Understanding this pest´s behaviour in the region under future climate scenarios is an increasing challenge. Hence, the present study aims to assess the potential effects of two likely climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on Lobesia botrana phenology, particularly at the beginning and at the peak of the three Lobesia botrana flights. Our findings show that the phenological events generally occur earlier in all locations and mostly during the long-term period of 2021–2080, being 7 to 12 days in advance in the RCP4.5 scenario, and 15 to 24 days in advance in RCP8.5, when compared to current values (2000–2019) and regardless of the flight number. These results suggest that a fourth complete flight is likely in the future, and that Lobesia botrana will become a tetravoltine species in the region. The flight (male catches) and infestation of Lobesia botrana over periods with daily temperatures above its upper limit of development (> 33 °C) were also analysed during the period 2000–2019 in the targeted sites. The upward trend in the number of days with maximum temperature above 33 °C tended to be accompanied by a decrease in the total number of male catches during the second and third flights, as well as a decrease in the percentage of attacked bunches by the second and third generations. Overall, climate change is expected to influence the phenology of this pest in the DDR.

SPAGETTA Weather Generator Linked with Climate Models May Produce Weather Series for Future Climate 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Dubrovsky ◽  
Ondrej Lhotka ◽  
Jiri Miksovsky ◽  
Petr Stepanek ◽  
Jan Meitner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

<p>Stochastic weather generators (WGs) are tools for producing weather series, which are statistically similar to the real world weather series. The synthetic series may represent both present and changed (not only the future) climate. In the latter case, WG parameters derived from the observed weather series are modified with climate change scenario, which is typically based on RCM or GCM simulations. As the GCM/RCM simulations are very demanding on computer resources, the numbers of simulations made for individual possible emission scenarios are limited, especially for some (mostly the less probable ones) emission scenarios (e.g. RCP 2.6). Still, many climate change impact studies try to give projections of the CC impacts assuming uncertainties coming from all possible sources, including the modeling uncertainty and  uncertainties in emissions & climate sensitivity. To allow generation of weather series fitting the projection of any GCM forced by any emission scenario, we use a pattern scaling approach, in which the standardized climate change scenario (consisting of changes in climatic characteristic related to 1ºC change in global mean temperature) derived from a given GCM is multiplied by a change in global mean temperature (dTg) projected (for a selected emission scenario and climate sensitivity) by a simple climate model MAGICC.</p><p>In our contribution, we will demonstrate the use of the generator (using SPAGETTA WG, which is our multi-site multi-variate parametric daily WG) in probabilistic projection of future changes in selected climatic characteristics of temperature (T) and precipitation (P); we will focus on spatial hot/cold/dry/wet/hot-dry/hot-wet/cold-dry/cold-wet spells). Standardized climate change scenarios will be derived from multiple GCMs (taken from CMIP5 database) and scaled by dTg projected by MAGICC. Effects of the three above-named sources of uncertainty, as well as the effects of changes in individual statistical characteristics (the means & the site-specific variabilities & the characteristics of the temporal and spatial variability of both T and P) will be assessed.</p><p>Acknowledgements: Projects GRIMASA (Czech Science Foundation, project no. 18-15958S) and SustES (European Structural and Investment Funds, project no. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797).</p>

scholarly journals Climate change scenario analysis for Baro-Akobo river basin, Southwestern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Teressa Negassa Muleta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Future Climate Change Scenario

Abstract Background Several water resources projects are under planning and implementation in the Baro-Akobo basin. Currently, the planning and management of these projects is relied on historical data. So far, hardly any study has addressed water resources management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change in the basin. The main bottleneck to this has been lack of future climate change scenario base data over the basin. The current study is aimed at developing future climate change scenario for the basin. To this end, Regional Climate Model (RCM) downscaled data for A1B emission scenario was employed and bias corrected at basin level using observed data. Future climate change scenario was developed using the bias corrected RCM output data with the basic objective of producing baseline data for sustainable water resources development and management in the basin. Result The projected future climate shows an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperatures; however, for the case of precipitation it does not manifest a systematic increasing or decreasing trend in the next century. The projected mean annual temperature increases from the baseline period by an amount of 1 °C and 3.5 °C respectively, in 2040s and 2090s. Similarly, evapotranspiration has been found to increase to an extent of 25% over the basin. The precipitation is predicted to experience a mean annual decrease of 1.8% in 2040s and an increase of 1.8% in 2090s over the basin for the A1B emission scenario. Conclusion The study resulted in a considerable future change in climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration) on the monthly and seasonal basis. These have an implication on hydrologic extremes-drought and flooding, and demands dynamic water resources management. Hence the study gives a valuable base information for water resources planning and managers, particularly for modeling reservoir inflow-climate change relations, to adapt reservoir operation rules to the real-time changing climate.

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