scholarly journals A Study of False Alarms of a Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming by Real-Time Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for the 2017/2018 Northern Winter

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 875
Author(s):  
Masakazu Taguchi
Keyword(s):  
False Alarm ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
First Case

This study investigates false alarms of a major sudden stratospheric warming (MSSW) by real-time subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts system for the 2017/2018 Northern Hemisphere winter season. The analysis reveals two false alarm cases in the season, one in early December and the other in early February. Each case is characterized by ensembles of which a considerable part of the members (MSSW members) show an MSSW, that is, reversal of the zonal mean zonal wind in the extratropical stratosphere on similar calendar dates. Ensemble forecasts that are initialized earlier or later basically lack an MSSW, demonstrating clear intraseasonal variability in the frequency of forecasted MSSWs. For each false alarm case, the MSSW member mean field shows equatorward displacement of the polar vortex around the onset date. For both cases, the MSSW members accompany stronger wave activity in the lower stratosphere than other non-MSSW members and reanalysis data. They are further associated with higher geopotential height than the non-MSSW members, in the upper troposphere over northeastern Canada and Greenland before the first case, and lower height over northeastern Eurasia before the second case. These are located over the ridge and trough, respectively, of the climatological planetary wave of zonal wave number one, and are consistent with the increased wave activity.

scholarly journals Tropospheric circulation response to sudden stratospheric warming observed in January 2013

2020 ◽  
pp. 241-254
Author(s):  
A.I. Pogoreltsev ◽  
O.G. Aniskina ◽  
A.Y. Kanukhina ◽  
T.S. Ermakova ◽  
A.I. Ugryumov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Winter Season ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
Synoptic Situation ◽  
Dynamical Regime ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation

Analysis of the dynamical regime changes in the stratosphere during different phases of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) that has been observed in January 2013 is presented. The different mechanisms of SSW influence on the tropospheric circulation through the stationary planetary waves (SPWs) reflection and/or increase in SPWs activity due to nonlinear interaction with the mean flow and their subsequent propagation into the troposphere are discussed. Three-dimensional wave activity flux and its divergence are determined using the UK Met Office data; the synoptic situation and its changes during the SSW events are analyzed. The wave activity penetrates downward from stratosphere into the troposphere and can affect weather processes during the SSW and right afterwards. It is this time that polar anticyclones can be formed at high latitudes, which quickly go southward along meridional directions and then deviate to the East at middle latitudes. Interestingly, the locations of polar anticyclone formations and subsequent displacements correspond to the regions of maximal horizontal wave activity fluxes connected with stratospheric processes. The results obtained allow us to suggest that accounting of stratospheric processes and their influence on the troposphere in winter season can improve the middle-range forecast of anticyclone formation and cold weather events at middle latitudes.

scholarly journals INVESTIGATION OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE STRATOSPHERE VARIABILITY IN XXI CENTURY IN INM CM5 CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 27-34
Author(s):  
P. N. Vargin ◽  
◽  
E. M. Volodin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Spring Break ◽  
Break Up

Simulations of 5th version of INM RAS (Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Science) climate model performed in the framework of CMIP6 project for the future climate under ssp2–4.5 (moderate) and ssp5–8.5 (business as usual or hard) scenarios of green house gases (GHG) increase are employed to analyze temperature, zonal mean wind, stratospheric polar vortex, planetary wave activity, meridional circulation, sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, and stratospheric circulation spring break-up date changes during boreal winters from 2015 to 2100. Comparison of averages over two periods of 2080–2100 and 2015–2035 revealed that temperature will decrease from 1° in the lower stratosphere to 4° in the upper stratosphere under moderate scenario and up to 11° under hard scenario. Cooling of stratosphere will be accompanied by strengthening of zonal circulation and planetary wave activity propagation in the middle – upper stratosphere that in turn leads to increase (stronger under hard scenario) of planetary wave with zonal wave number 1 amplitude (wavenumber 1). 13 major sudden stratospheric warming events and 16 very cold stratospheric winter seasons were revealed under hard scenario. Under both scenarios early spring break-up dates will be accompanied by stronger wavenumber 1 in comparison with winter seasons with later spring break-up dates. Strengthening of zonal mean meridional circulation is expected in the late XXI century

scholarly journals Tropospheric forcing of the boreal polar vortex splitting in January 2003

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (11) ◽  
pp. 2133-2148 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. H. W. Peters ◽  
P. Vargin ◽  
A. Gabriel ◽  
N. Tsvetkova ◽  
V. Yushkov
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Wave Trains

Abstract. The dynamical evolution of the relatively warm stratospheric winter season 2002–2003 in the Northern Hemisphere was studied and compared with the cold winter 2004–2005 based on NCEP-Reanalyses. Record low temperatures were observed in the lower and middle stratosphere over the Arctic region only at the beginning of the 2002–2003 winter. Six sudden stratospheric warming events, including the major warming event with a splitting of the polar vortex in mid-January 2003, have been identified. This led to a very high vacillation of the zonal mean circulation and a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex over the whole winter season. An estimate of the mean chemical ozone destruction inside the polar vortex showed a total ozone loss of about 45 DU in winter 2002–2003; that is about 2.5 times smaller than in winter 2004–2005. Embedded in a winter with high wave activity, we found two subtropical Rossby wave trains in the troposphere before the major sudden stratospheric warming event in January 2003. These Rossby waves propagated north-eastwards and maintained two upper tropospheric anticyclones. At the same time, the amplification of an upward propagating planetary wave 2 in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was observed, which could be caused primarily by those two wave trains. Furthermore, two extratropical Rossby wave trains over the North Pacific Ocean and North America were identified a couple of days later, which contribute mainly to the vertical planetary wave activity flux just before and during the major warming event. It is shown that these different tropospheric forcing processes caused the major warming event and contributed to the splitting of the polar vortex.

scholarly journals Diagnosis of Local Gravity Wave Properties during a Sudden Stratospheric Warming

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lena Schoon ◽  
Christoph Zülicke
Keyword(s):  
Wave Propagation ◽  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Complex Signal ◽  
Unexpected Finding ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Local Wave ◽  
The Hilbert Transform ◽  
A Minor

Abstract. Commonly, wave quantities are maintained in zonal mean averages. Hence, local wave phenomena remain unclear. Here, we introduce a diagnostic tool for studies of wave packets locally. The "Unified Wave Diagnosis" (UWaDi) uses the Hilbert Transform to obtain a complex signal from a real-valued function and estimates the amplitude and wave number locally. Operational data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is used to perform the analysis. Restrictions on gravity wave propagation due to model sponge layers are identified well above the 10 hPa altitude. From a minor stratospheric warming in January 2016 three cases for vertical gravity wave propagation in different background wind conditions are selected. It is shown that zonal mean wind quantities cannot reveal local "valves" allowing gravity waves to propagate into the mid-stratosphere. The unexpected finding of high gravity wave activity at the minor warming of 30 January 2016 is related to strong planetary wave activity and a strong local "pump". Accordingly, the advantages of a local wave packet analysis are demonstrated for profiles up to the model sponge layer.

Two Day Wave Traveling Westward With Wave Number 1 During the Sudden Stratospheric Warming in January 2017

2018 ◽  
Vol 123 (4) ◽  
pp. 3005-3013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiangang Xiong ◽  
Weixing Wan ◽  
Feng Ding ◽  
Libo Liu ◽  
Lianhuan Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Number ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming

scholarly journals Influence of the sudden stratospheric warming on quasi-2-day waves

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 4885-4896 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng-Yang Gu ◽  
Han-Li Liu ◽  
Xiankang Dou ◽  
Tao Li
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Equatorial Region ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Zonal Wave Number

Abstract. The influence of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) on a quasi-2-day wave (QTDW) with westward zonal wave number 3 (W3) is investigated using the Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The summer easterly jet below 90 km is strengthened during an SSW, which results in a larger refractive index and thus more favorable conditions for the propagation of W3. In the winter hemisphere, the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux diagnostics indicate that the strong instabilities at middle and high latitudes in the mesopause region are important for the amplification of W3, which is weakened during SSW periods due to the deceleration or even reversal of the winter westerly winds. Nonlinear interactions between the W3 and the wave number 1 stationary planetary wave produce QTDW with westward zonal wave number 2 (W2). The meridional wind perturbations of the W2 peak in the equatorial region, while the zonal wind and temperature components maximize at middle latitudes. The EP flux diagnostics indicate that the W2 is capable of propagating upward in both winter and summer hemispheres, whereas the propagation of W3 is mostly confined to the summer hemisphere. This characteristic is likely due to the fact that the phase speed of W2 is larger, and therefore its waveguide has a broader latitudinal extension. The larger phase speed also makes W2 less vulnerable to dissipation and critical layer filtering by the background wind when propagating upward.

scholarly journals Tropospheric and Stratospheric Precursors to the January 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (4) ◽  
pp. 1321-1339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah E. Attard ◽  
Rosimar Rios-Berrios ◽  
Corey T. Guastini ◽  
Andrea L. Lang
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Climate Forecast System Reanalysis ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Wave Resonance

Abstract This paper investigates the tropospheric and stratospheric precursors to a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that began on 6 January 2013. Using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset, the analysis identified two distinct decelerations of the 10-hPa zonal mean zonal wind at 65°N in December in addition to the major SSW, which occurred on 6 January 2013 when the 10-hPa zonal mean zonal wind at 65°N reversed from westerly to easterly. The analysis shows that the two precursor events preconditioned the stratosphere for the SSW. Analysis of the tropospheric state in the days leading to the precursor events and the major SSW suggests that high-latitude tropospheric blocks occurred in the days prior to the two December deceleration events, but not in the days prior to the SSW. A detailed wave activity flux (WAF) analysis suggests that the tropospheric blocking prior to the two December deceleration events contributed to an anomalously positive 40-day-average 100-hPa zonal mean meridional eddy heat flux prior to the SSW. Analysis of the stratospheric structure in the days prior to the SSW reveals that the SSW was associated with enhanced WAF in the upper stratosphere, planetary wave breaking, and an upper-stratospheric/lower-mesospheric disturbance. These results suggest that preconditioning of the stratosphere occurred as a result of WAF initiated by tropospheric blocking associated with the two December deceleration events. The two December deceleration events occurred in the 40 days prior to the SSW and led to the amplification of wave activity in the upper stratosphere and wave resonance that caused the January 2013 SSW.

scholarly journals Investigation on the abnormal quasi-two day wave activities during sudden stratospheric warming period of January 2006

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng-Yang Gu ◽  
Xiankang Dou ◽  
Dora Pancheva
Keyword(s):  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Zonal Wave Number

Abstract. The quasi-two day wave (QTDW) during austral summer period usually coincides with sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in the winter hemisphere, while the influences of SSW on QTDW are not totally understood. In this work, the anomalous QTDW activities during the major SSW period of January 2006 are further investigated on the basis of hourly Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System-Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA) reanalysis dataset. Strong westward QTDW with zonal wave number 2 (W2) is identified besides the conventionally dominant mode of zonal wave number 3 (W3). Meanwhile, the W3 peaks with an extremely short period of ~ 42 hours. Compared with January 2005 with no evident SSW, we found that the zonal mean zonal wind in the summer mesosphere is enhanced during 2006. The enhanced summer easterly sustains critical layers for W2 and short-period W3 QTDWs with larger phase speed, which facilitate their amplification through wave-mean flow interaction. The stronger summer easterly also provides stronger barotropic/baroclinic instabilities and thus larger forcing for the amplification of QTDW. The inter-hemispheric coupling induced by strong winter stratospheric planetary wave activities during SSW period is most likely responsible for the enhancement of summer easterly. Besides, we found that the nonlinear interaction between W3 QTDW and the wave number 1 stationary planetary wave (SPW1) may also contribute to the source of W2 at middle and low latitudes in the mesosphere.

Gravity wave activity during the southern hemispheric sudden stratospheric warming 2019

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Dörnbrack ◽  
Tyler Mixa ◽  
Bernd Kaifler ◽  
Markus Rapp
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Airborne Measurements

<p>At the end of the austral winter 2019, a sudden stratospheric warming led to an early breakdown of the polar vortex. The meteorological conditions during this event are documented and analysed by means of operational analyses of the Intgrated Forecast System (IFS) of the ECMWF and ERA5 data. Especially, we focus on the decline of stratospheric wave activity over the southern tip of South America. For this region, ground-based and airborne measurements are employed to compare selected diagnostics with fields from the ECMWF's numerical weather prediction model IFS. Furthmore, the meteorological conditions for one selected research flight during the SOUTHTRAC campaign are presented. This part serves as background information for a case study presented by Tyler Mixa.</p>

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