scholarly journals The Connection between Extreme Precipitation Variability over Monsoon Asia and Large-Scale Circulation Patterns

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1492
Author(s):  
Sunilkumar Khadgarai ◽  
Vinay Kumar ◽  
Prabodha Kumar Pradhan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Monsoon Asia ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Circulation Patterns

Spatial and temporal variability in precipitation has been dramatically changed due to climate variability and climate change over the global domain. Increasing in extreme precipitation events are pronounced in various regions, including monsoon Asia (MA) in recent decades. The present study evaluated precipitation variability in light of intensity, duration, and frequency with several extreme precipitation climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) over the MA region. This study uses an improved version (APHRO_V1901) of the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observation Data Integration Towards Evaluation of extreme events (APHRODITE-2) gridded rainfall product. Results showed that the spatial variability of the extreme precipitation climate change indices is reflected in the annual mean rainfall distribution in MA. Maximum one-day precipitation (R × 1) and precipitation contributed from extremes (R95) depict a peak in decadal mean rainfall values over topography regions. A significant positive trend in R × 1 (with a slope of 0.3 mm/yr) and precipitation greater than the 95th percentile (R95: with a slope of 0.5 mm/yr) are predominantly observed in decadal trends in regional average extreme precipitation climate change indices over MA. Maritime continental countries exhibit an inclined trend in R10, whereas central Asian arid regions show a decreasing tendency in continuous dry days (CDD). The positive trend in R95 is observed over central India, the monsoon region in China, countries that reside over the equator and some parts of Japan, and the Philippines. When comparing the influence of surface temperature (T) and total column water vapor (TCW) on precipitation climate change indices, TCW seems to be a crucial attributor to climate change indices meridional variability. The mutual correlation analysis depicts that precipitation contributed from extremes (R95) strongly correlates in terms of temporal variability with all extreme precipitation indices. Among various global circulation patterns, the prevalent conditions of sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have a significant influence on decadal variability in extreme precipitation climate change indices. R10 and R95 possess a relatively significant correlation (0.86 and 0.91) with the Southern Oscillation Index. The maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) shows an increasing trend with a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

scholarly journals ENSO and Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events over the Contiguous United States

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Yehui Chang ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
Philip J. Pegion
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
The West ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In this study the authors examine the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation events over the continental United States using 49 winters (1949/50–1997/98) of daily precipitation observations and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. The results are compared with those from an ensemble of nine atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with observed SST for the same time period. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the daily precipitation fields together with compositing techniques are used to identify and characterize the weather systems that dominate the winter precipitation variability. The time series of the principal components (PCs) associated with the leading EOFs are analyzed using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions to quantify the impact of ENSO on the intensity of extreme precipitation events. The six leading EOFs of the observations are associated with major winter storm systems and account for more than 50% of the daily precipitation variability along the West Coast and over much of the eastern part of the country. Two of the leading EOFs (designated GC for Gulf Coast and EC for East Coast) together represent cyclones that develop in the Gulf of Mexico and occasionally move and/or redevelop along the East Coast producing large amounts of precipitation over much of the southern and eastern United States. Three of the leading EOFs represent storms that hit different sections of the West Coast (designated SW for Southwest coast, WC for the central West Coast, and NW for northwest coast), while another represents storms that affect the Midwest (designated by MW). The winter maxima of several of the leading PCs are significantly impacted by ENSO such that extreme GC, EC, and SW storms that occur on average only once every 20 years (20-yr storms) would occur on average in half that time under sustained El Niño conditions. In contrast, under La Niña conditions, 20-yr GC and EC storms would occur on average about once in 30 years, while there is little impact of La Niña on the intensity of the SW storms. The leading EOFs from the model simulations and their connections to ENSO are for the most part quite realistic. The model, in particular, does very well in simulating the impact of ENSO on the intensity of EC and GC storms. The main model discrepancies are the lack of SW storms and an overall underestimate of the daily precipitation variance.

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 54 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grum ◽  
A.T. Jørgensen ◽  
R.M. Johansen ◽  
J.J. Linde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 × 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at time-scales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

Comparative Analysis or Precipitation Variation Characteristics between Subtropical Monsoon Climate and Temperate Monsoon Climate-Take Changsha and Chengde for Example

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 1113-1122
Author(s):  
Bo Chen ◽  
Shi-jun Xu ◽  
Xin-ping Zhang ◽  
Yi Xie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Average Precipitation ◽  
Autumn And Winter ◽  
Average Annual Precipitation

Using the methods of literature review, regression analysis and moving average, this paper selects the daily precipitation of Changsha and Chengde from 1951 to 1986 as samples, and analyzes the average precipitation, precipitation frequency, precipitation intensity, extreme precipitation time and other indicators of Changsha and Chengde from the perspective of interannual and seasonal changes Trends. The researches show that: the average precipitation of Changsha in the 36 years is 1151.2mm, spring is the wet season, autumn and winter are the dry seasons, and the maximum average precipitation is in spring; the average annual precipitation, precipitation frequency in spring, summer and winter, annual precipitation frequency, annual precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation events show a decreasing trend. The average annual precipitation of Chengde city is 454.1 mm, wet season in summer and dry season in spring, autumn and winter; the average annual precipitation, precipitation in four seasons, annual precipitation frequency, precipitation frequency in spring, autumn and winter, annual precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation events show a decreasing trend, while the precipitation frequency in summer shows an increasing trend. The study of regional climate change based on the time series data of this stage is of great significance to comprehensively understand the law of regional climate change and predict the future trend of climate change.

scholarly journals Comparing soil carbon loss through respiration and leaching under extreme precipitation events in arid and semi-arid grasslands

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Liu ◽  
Liang Wang ◽  
Xiaojuan Feng ◽  
Jinbo Zhang ◽  
Tian Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Carbon Loss ◽  
Research Attention ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Leaching Loss ◽  
Arid And Semiarid

Abstract. Respiration and leaching are two main processes responsible for soil carbon loss. While the former has received considerable research attention, studies examining leaching processes are limited especially in semiarid grasslands due to low precipitation. Climate change may increase the extreme precipitation event (EPE) frequency in arid and semiarid regions, potentially enhancing soil carbon loss through leaching and respiration. Here we incubated soil columns of three typical grassland soils from Inner Mongolia and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and examined the effect of simulated EPEs on soil carbon loss through respiration and leaching. EPEs induced transient increase of soil respiration, equivalent to 32 % and 72 % of the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in the temperate grasslands (Xilinhot and Keqi) and 7 % in the alpine grasslands (Gangcha). By comparison, leaching loss of soil carbon accounted for 290 %, 120 % and 15 % of NEP at the corresponding sites, respectively, with dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) as the main form of carbon loss in the alkaline soils. Moreover, DIC loss increased with re-occuring EPEs in the soil with the highest pH due to increased dissolution of soil carbonates and elevated contribution of dissolved CO2 from organic carbon degradation (indicated by DIC-δ13C). These results highlight that leaching loss of soil carbon (particularly DIC) is important in the regional carbon budget of arid and semiarid grasslands. With a projected increase of EPEs under climate change, soil carbon leaching processes and its influencing factors warrant better understanding and should be incorporated into soil carbon models when estimating carbon balance in grassland ecosystems.

scholarly journals Features of Extreme Precipitation at Progress Station, Antarctica

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (22) ◽  
pp. 9087-9105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lejiang Yu ◽  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Timo Vihma ◽  
Svetlana Jagovkina ◽  
Jiping Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Dynamic Processes ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Dipole Structure ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Precipitation Events

Observed daily precipitation data were used to investigate the characteristics of precipitation at Antarctic Progress Station and synoptic patterns associated with extreme precipitation events during the period 2003–16. The annual precipitation, annual number of extreme precipitation events, and amount of precipitation during the extreme events have positive trends. The distribution of precipitation at Progress Station is heavily skewed with a long tail of extreme dry days and a high peak of extreme wet days. The synoptic pattern associated with extreme precipitation events is a dipole structure of negative and positive height anomalies to the west and east of Progress Station, respectively, resulting in water vapor advection to the station. For the first time, we apply self-organizing maps (SOMs) to examine thermodynamic and dynamic perspectives of trends in the frequency of occurrence of Antarctic extreme precipitation events. The changes in thermodynamic (noncirculation) processes explain 80% of the trend, followed by the changes in the interaction between thermodynamic and dynamic processes, which account for nearly 25% of the trend. The changes in dynamic processes make a negative (less than 5%) contribution to the trend. The positive trend in total column water vapor over the Southern Ocean explains the change of thermodynamic term.

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation Extremities of Eastern Nepal in the Last Two Decades (1997–2016)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil Subba ◽  
Yaoming Ma ◽  
Weiqiang Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>In recent days there have been discussions regarding the impact of climate change and its vagaries of the weather, particularly concerning extreme events. Nepal, being a mountainous country, is more susceptible to precipitation extreme events and related hazards, which hinder the socioeconomic<br>development of the nation. In this regard, this study aimed to address this phenomenon for one of the most naturally and socioeconomically important regions of Nepal, namely, Eastern Nepal. The data were collected for the period of 1997 to 2016. The interdecadal comparison for two periods<br>(1997–2006 and 2007–2016) was maintained for the calculation of extreme precipitation indices as per recommended by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Linear trends were calculated by using Mann‐Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator. The average annual precipitation was found to be decreasing at an alarming rate of −20 mm/year in the last two decades' tenure. In case of extreme precipitation events, consecutive dry days, one of the frequency indices, showed a solo increase in its trend (mostly significant). Meanwhile, all the intensity indices of extreme precipitation showed decreasing trends (mostly insignificant). Thus, it can be concluded that Eastern Nepal has witnessed some significant drier days in the last two decades, as the events of heavy, very heavy, extremely heavy precipitation events, and annual wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) were found to be decreasing. The same phenomena were also seen in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 satellite precipitation product for whole Nepal.</p>

scholarly journals Trends in Arctic seasonal and extreme precipitation in recent decades

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lejiang Yu ◽  
Shiyuan Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Water Vapor Feedback ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Autumn And Winter ◽  
Thermodynamic Processes

Abstract Daily precipitation data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) from 1979 to 2016 are analyzed to determine the trends in seasonal and extreme precipitation across the pan-Arctic and estimate the contributions to the trends from the dynamic (e.g. changes in circulation patterns) and thermodynamic processes (e.g., sea ice melt – water vapor feedback) and their interactions. The trends in the seasonal total precipitation are generally consistent with the trends in the occurrence of seasonal extreme precipitation. Although the trends vary considerably in direction and magnitude across the pan-Arctic and the seasons, more regions experience a statistically significant positive trend than negative trend, particularly in autumn and winter seasons and over areas of the Arctic Ocean and the northern North Atlantic. Statistically significant negative trends are mostly found in areas of northern Eurasian and North America. The thermodynamic processes account for more than 85% of the total trends, with the rest of the trends explained by the dynamic processes (e.g., changes in circulation patterns) and the interaction between dynamic and thermodynamic processes.

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