scholarly journals Changes of Extreme Precipitation and Possible Influence of ENSO Events in a Humid Basin in China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1522
Author(s):  
Xiaoxia Yang ◽  
Juan Wu ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
Xuchun Ye
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Indices

In this study, 11 extreme precipitation indices were selected to examine the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin during 1960–2017. The responses of extreme precipitation indices to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of different Pacific Ocean areas were further investigated. The results show that the temperature in the Poyang Lake Basin has increased significantly since the 1990s, and the inter-decadal precipitation fluctuated. Most extreme precipitation indices showed an increasing trend with abrupt changes occurring around 1991. Spatially, most of the extreme precipitation indices decreased from northeast to southwest. The increasing trend of most indices in the center and south of the basin was relatively prominent. The linear correlations between the extreme precipitation indices and Nino 1 + 2 were the most significant. On the timescale of 2–6 years, a common oscillation period between the extreme precipitation of the basin and the four ENSO indices can be observed. After 2010, the positive correlation between the precipitation of the Poyang Lake Basin and the SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific increased significantly. Additionally, annual total wet–day precipitation in most areas of the Poyang Lake Basin increased with varying degrees in warm ENSO years. The results of this study will improve the understanding of the complex background and driving mechanism of flood disasters in the Poyang Lake Basin.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Precipitation and Its Dependence on Topography over the Poyang Lake Basin, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianghu Li ◽  
Qi Hu
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Spatiotemporal Changes ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Precipitation Events

Spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation at local scales in the context of climate warming are overwhelmingly important for prevention and mitigation of water-related disasters and also provide critical information for effective water resources management. In this study, the variability and trends of extreme precipitation in both time and space in the Poyang Lake basin over the period of 1960–2012 are analyzed. Also, changes in precipitation extremes with topography are investigated, and possible causes are briefly discussed. The results show that extreme precipitation over the Poyang Lake basin is intensified during the last 50 years, especially the increasing trends are more significant before the end of the 1990s. Moreover, high contribution rates of extreme precipitation to the total rainfall (40–60%) indicated that extreme precipitation plays an important role to the total water resources in this area. The precipitation extremes also exhibited a significant spatial dependence in the basin. The northeastern and eastern areas are exposed to high risk of flood disaster with the higher frequency of extreme precipitation events. In addition, the distribution of precipitation extremes had a clear dependence on elevation, and the topography is an important factor affecting the variability of extreme precipitation over the Poyang Lake basin.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Variations in Precipitation Extremes in the Endorheic Hongjian Lake Basin in the Ordos Plateau, China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1981 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kang Liang
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Oscillation Phase ◽  
Ordos Plateau ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Extreme Indices

Precipitation extremes have important implications for regional water resources and ecological environment in endorheic (landlocked) basins. The Hongjian Lake Basin (HJLB), as the representative inflow area in the Ordos Plateau in China, is suffering from water scarcity and an ecosystem crisis; however, previous studies have paid little attention to changes in precipitation extremes in the HJLB. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal variations of the core extreme precipitation indices (i.e., PRCTOT, R99p, Rx1day, Rx5day, SDII, R1, R10, CWD, and CDD) recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), and analyzed the climatic dry–wet regime indicated by these extreme indices during 1960–2014 in the HJLB. The results show that the nine extreme indices had large differences in temporal and spatial variation characteristics. All the nine extreme precipitation indices showed a large fluctuation, both in the whole period and in the three detected different sub-periods, with variation magnitudes of 13%–52%. Most extreme indices had non-significant downward trends, while only the consecutive wet days (CWD) had a significant upward trend. The eight extreme wet indices increased from northwest to southeast, while the consecutive dry days (CDD) had the opposite change direction. Each index had a different trend with different spatial distribution locations and areas. The nine extreme indices revealed that the climate in the HJLB has become a drought since the early 1980s. This was specifically indicated by all four extreme precipitation quantity indices (PRCTOT, R99p, Rx1day, Rx5day) and the extreme intensity index (SDII) declining, as well as the number of heavy precipitation days (R10) decreasing. When the dry–wet variations was divided into the different sub-periods, the climatic dry–wet changes of each index demonstrated more inconsistency and complexity, but most indices in the first sub-period from 1960 to the late 1970s could be regarded as a wet high-oscillation phase, the second sub-period after the early 1980s was a relatively dry low-oscillation phase, and the third sub-period after the late 1990s or early 21st century was a dry medium-oscillation phase. It is worth noting that most extreme indices had an obvious positive linear trend in the third sub-period, which means that in the last 20 years, the precipitation extremes showed an increasing trend. This study could provide a certain scientific reference for regional climate change detection, water resources management, and disaster prevention in the HJLB and similar endorheic basins or inland arid regions.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variations of Drought and Their Teleconnections with Large-Scale Climate Indices over the Poyang Lake Basin, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weilin Liu ◽  
Shengnan Zhu ◽  
Yipeng Huang ◽  
Yifan Wan ◽  
Bin Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variations ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Decadal Scale

The intensity and frequency of droughts in Poyang Lake Basin have been increasing due to global warming. To properly manage water resources and mitigate drought disasters, it is important to understand the long-term characteristics of drought and its possible link with large-scale climate indices. Based on the monthly meteorological data of 41 meteorological stations in Poyang Lake Basin from 1958 to 2017, the spatiotemporal variations of drought were investigated using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) methods and the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) trend test were used to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of drought. Furthermore, to reveal possible links between drought variations and large-scale climate indices in Poyang Lake Basin, the relationships between SPEI and large-scale climate indices, such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were examined using cross-wavelet transform. The results showed that the SPEI in Poyang Lake Basin exhibited relatively stable quasi-periodic oscillation, with approximate quasi-3-year and quasi-6-year periods at the inter-annual scale and quasi-15-year and quasi-30-year periods at the inter-decadal scale from 1958 to 2017. Moreover, the Poyang Lake Basin experienced an insignificantly wetter trend as a whole at the annual and seasonal scales during the period of 1958–2017, except for spring, which had a drought trend. The special characteristics of the trend variations were markedly different in the basin. The areas in which drought was most likely to occur were mainly located in the Poyang Lake region, northwest and south of the basin, respectively. Furthermore, relationships between the drought and six climate indices showed that the drought exhibited a significant temporal correlation with five climate indices at restricted intervals, except for IOD. The dominant influences of the large-scale climate indices on the drought evolutions shifted in the Poyang Lake Basin during 1958–2017, from the NAO, Niño 3.4, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) before the late 1960s and early 1970s, to the AO and PDO during the 1980s, then to the NAO, AO and SOI after the early 2000s. The NAO, AO and SOI exerted a significant influence on the drought events in the basin. The results of this study will benefit regional water resource management, agriculture production, and ecosystem protection in the Poyang Lake Basin.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches of the Hongshui River Basin during 1959–2016

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ya Huang ◽  
Ling Yi ◽  
Weihua Xiao ◽  
Guibing Hou ◽  
Yuyan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Understanding changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation is vital for flood control, disaster mitigation, and water resource management. In this study, 12 extreme precipitation indices and the best-fitting extreme value distribution were used to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches of the Hongshui River Basin (UHRB). The possible links between extreme precipitation and large-scale circulation were also investigated. Most extreme precipitation indices increased from west to east in the UHRB, indicating that the eastern region is a humid area with abundant precipitation. The indices for consecutive wet days (CWD) and precipitation events (R0.1) decreased significantly, indicating that the UHRB tends to be dry, with few precipitation events. The probability distribution functions of most extreme precipitation indices, especially that of R0.1, shifted significantly to the left in 1988–2016 compared with 1959–1987, further indicating that the UHRB has experienced a significant drying trend in recent decades. The East Asian summer monsoon and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Oscillation were confirmed to influence extreme precipitation in the UHRB. These findings are helpful for understanding extreme precipitation variation trends in the UHRB and provide references for further research.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Precipitation Extremes in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam During 1980–2017

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Trong Quan ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Nguyen Xuan Hoan ◽  
Nguyen Ky Phung ◽  
Thanh Duc Dang
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
The City

Abstract In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of trends in extreme precipitation events in Ho Chi Minh City during the period 1980–2017 was analyzed based on several core extreme precipitation indices (Rx1day, Rx5day, CDD, CWD, R20mm, R25mm, R95p, and SDII). The non-parametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were used to compute the statistical strength, stability, and magnitude of trends in annual rainfall, as well as the extreme precipitation indices. We found that 64% of the stations had statistically significant upward trends in yearly rainfall, with high magnitudes frequently observed in the northern and southern regions of the city. For the extreme precipitation indices, only SDII and R25mm showed dominantly significant trends. Additionally, there were increasing trends in the frequency and duration at the southern and central regions of the city during the study period. Furthermore, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation positively correlated with the duration and negatively correlated with the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation. Thus, water management plans should be adjusted appropriately to reduce the severe impacts of precipitation extremes on communities and ecosystems.

scholarly journals The Decrasing Trend of Precipitation Observed at Watesheds in Padang for The Period 1975-2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 222
Author(s):  
Ratna Wilis ◽  
Sugeng Nugroho
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Homogeneity Test ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Precipitation Condition ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Indices

One of the consequences of the ongoing climate change is the increasing likelihood of extreme precipitation frequency in the future, which causes the declining trend of total precipitation that affects water debits in the watersheds and brings difficulties to a city like Padang that is situated near the watersheds. In order to elaborate on this, a number of extreme precipitation indices recommended by ETCCDMI was utilized to assess the extreme precipitation condition for the period 1975-2013. These indices were calculated based on the rain-gauge stations along the watersheds in and around Padang. Before processing the data, a series of homogeneity test were undertaken to make sure the data were comparable. The results showed that there was a significant declining trend on the total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), an increasing trend of the number of days without rain (R0) and a decreasing frequency of the number of days with precipitation of more than 50 mm in the Batang Kuranji Watershed. The results suggested that atmospheric circulations, such as El Nino and positive Dipole Mode, have played their role on the trend as a result of their intensified frequency due to global warming.

scholarly journals Influences of the timing of extreme precipitation on floods in Poyang Lake, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianghu Li ◽  
Qi Hu ◽  
Rong Wang ◽  
Dan Zhang ◽  
Qi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Storm Water ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Hydrodynamic Simulation ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Flood Level

Abstract Changes in the timing of extreme precipitation have important ramifications for public safety and storm water management, but it has not received much attention in relation to flooding. This study analyzed the changes in the timing of extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin and projected its future changes for the period 2020–2099. The study also quantified the influences of changes in the timing of peak flows on lake floods based on a hydrodynamic model. The results showed that peak rainfall in the Poyang Lake basin had occurred on later dates during the period 1960–2012, and it is this change that caused a delay in peak streamflows from five rivers in the lake basin. Moreover, the effects of these changes are expected to be more prominent during 2020–2099; for example, the rate of delay will be about 2.0 days per 10 years both for peak rainfall and for streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin. The hydrodynamic simulation further showed that a delay of peak streamflows from five rivers would significantly increase the flood level and outflow of the lake and also prolong the duration of floods. These results indicate that the risk of floods in Poyang Lake is likely to increase in the future, therefore making flood control in this region more challenging.

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