scholarly journals Analyzing the Applicability of Random Forest-Based Models for the Forecast of Run-of-River Hydropower Generation

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 858-880
Author(s):  
Valentina Sessa ◽  
Edi Assoumou ◽  
Mireille Bossy ◽  
Sofia G. Simões
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Run Of River

Analyzing the impact of climate variables into the operational planning processes is essential for the robust implementation of a sustainable power system. This paper deals with the modeling of the run-of-river hydropower production based on climate variables on the European scale. A better understanding of future run-of-river generation patterns has important implications for power systems with increasing shares of solar and wind power. Run-of-river plants are less intermittent than solar or wind but also less dispatchable than dams with storage capacity. However, translating time series of climate data (precipitation and air temperature) into time series of run-of-river-based hydropower generation is not an easy task as it is necessary to capture the complex relationship between the availability of water and the generation of electricity. This task is also more complex when performed for a large interconnected area. In this work, a model is built for several European countries by using machine learning techniques. In particular, we compare the accuracy of models based on the Random Forest algorithm and show that a more accurate model is obtained when a finer spatial resolution of climate data is introduced. We then discuss the practical applicability of a machine learning model for the medium term forecasts and show that some very context specific but influential events are hard to capture.

scholarly journals A Review on Forecasting Agricultural Demand and Supply with Crop Price Estimation Using Machine Learning Methodologies

2021 ◽  
pp. 570-575
Author(s):  
Pallavi Shankarrao Mahore ◽  
Dr.Aashish A. Bardekar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Yield Model ◽  
Agriculture Sector

Agriculture plays a vital role in Indian economy. It contributes 18% of total India’s GDP. In India, most of the crops are solely dependent upon weather conditions. Hence, more yield of crops can be achieved by analyzing agro-climate data using machine learning techniques. Machine learning (ML) is a crucial perspective for acquiring real-world and operative solution for crop yield issue. From a given set of predictors, ML can predict a target/outcome by using Supervised Learning. To get the desired outputs need to generate a suitable function by set of some variables which will map the input variable to the aim output. Crop yield prediction incorporates forecasting the yield of the crop from past historical data which includes factors such as temperature, humidity, ph, rainfall, crop name. It gives us an idea for the finest predicted crop which will be cultivate in the field weather conditions. These predictions can be done by a machine learning algorithm called Random Forest. It will attain the crop prediction with best accurate value. The algorithm random forest is used to give the best crop yield model by considering least number of models. It is very useful to predict the yield of the crop in agriculture sector.

scholarly journals Advances in the Application of Machine Learning Techniques for Power System Analytics: A Survey

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 4776
Author(s):  
Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh ◽  
Michela Longo ◽  
Federica Foiadelli ◽  
Marco Pasetti ◽  
Raul Igual
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Smart Grids ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Smart Cities ◽  
Power Grids ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
New Research ◽  
Traditional Approaches

The recent advances in computing technologies and the increasing availability of large amounts of data in smart grids and smart cities are generating new research opportunities in the application of Machine Learning (ML) for improving the observability and efficiency of modern power grids. However, as the number and diversity of ML techniques increase, questions arise about their performance and applicability, and on the most suitable ML method depending on the specific application. Trying to answer these questions, this manuscript presents a systematic review of the state-of-the-art studies implementing ML techniques in the context of power systems, with a specific focus on the analysis of power flows, power quality, photovoltaic systems, intelligent transportation, and load forecasting. The survey investigates, for each of the selected topics, the most recent and promising ML techniques proposed by the literature, by highlighting their main characteristics and relevant results. The review revealed that, when compared to traditional approaches, ML algorithms can handle massive quantities of data with high dimensionality, by allowing the identification of hidden characteristics of (even) complex systems. In particular, even though very different techniques can be used for each application, hybrid models generally show better performances when compared to single ML-based models.

scholarly journals Classification of multiwavelength transients with Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
K Sooknunan ◽  
M Lochner ◽  
Bruce A Bassett ◽  
H V Peiris ◽  
R Fender ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Light Curves ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Optical Data ◽  
Test Time ◽  
Test Accuracy ◽  
Training Set ◽  
The Impact

Abstract With the advent of powerful telescopes such as the Square Kilometer Array and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, we are entering an era of multiwavelength transient astronomy that will lead to a dramatic increase in data volume. Machine learning techniques are well suited to address this data challenge and rapidly classify newly detected transients. We present a multiwavelength classification algorithm consisting of three steps: (1) interpolation and augmentation of the data using Gaussian processes; (2) feature extraction using wavelets; (3) classification with random forests. Augmentation provides improved performance at test time by balancing the classes and adding diversity into the training set. In the first application of machine learning to the classification of real radio transient data, we apply our technique to the Green Bank Interferometer and other radio light curves. We find we are able to accurately classify most of the eleven classes of radio variables and transients after just eight hours of observations, achieving an overall test accuracy of 78%. We fully investigate the impact of the small sample size of 82 publicly available light curves and use data augmentation techniques to mitigate the effect. We also show that on a significantly larger simulated representative training set that the algorithm achieves an overall accuracy of 97%, illustrating that the method is likely to provide excellent performance on future surveys. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of simultaneous multiwavelength observations by showing how incorporating just one optical data point into the analysis improves the accuracy of the worst performing class by 19%.

scholarly journals Application of random forest regression to the calculation of gas-phase chemistry within the GEOS-Chem chemistry model v10

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1209-1225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph A. Keller ◽  
Mat J. Evans
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Gas Phase ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Random Forest Regression ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Gas Phase Chemistry ◽  
Chemical Conditions ◽  
Phase Chemistry ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models are numerically intense, and previous attempts to reduce the numerical cost of chemistry solvers have not delivered transformative change. We show here the potential of a machine learning (in this case random forest regression) replacement for the gas-phase chemistry in atmospheric chemistry transport models. Our training data consist of 1 month (July 2013) of output of chemical conditions together with the model physical state, produced from the GEOS-Chem chemistry model v10. From this data set we train random forest regression models to predict the concentration of each transported species after the integrator, based on the physical and chemical conditions before the integrator. The choice of prediction type has a strong impact on the skill of the regression model. We find best results from predicting the change in concentration for long-lived species and the absolute concentration for short-lived species. We also find improvements from a simple implementation of chemical families (NOx = NO + NO2). We then implement the trained random forest predictors back into GEOS-Chem to replace the numerical integrator. The machine-learning-driven GEOS-Chem model compares well to the standard simulation. For ozone (O3), errors from using the random forests (compared to the reference simulation) grow slowly and after 5 days the normalized mean bias (NMB), root mean square error (RMSE) and R2 are 4.2 %, 35 % and 0.9, respectively; after 30 days the errors increase to 13 %, 67 % and 0.75, respectively. The biases become largest in remote areas such as the tropical Pacific where errors in the chemistry can accumulate with little balancing influence from emissions or deposition. Over polluted regions the model error is less than 10 % and has significant fidelity in following the time series of the full model. Modelled NOx shows similar features, with the most significant errors occurring in remote locations far from recent emissions. For other species such as inorganic bromine species and short-lived nitrogen species, errors become large, with NMB, RMSE and R2 reaching >2100 % >400 % and <0.1, respectively. This proof-of-concept implementation takes 1.8 times more time than the direct integration of the differential equations, but optimization and software engineering should allow substantial increases in speed. We discuss potential improvements in the implementation, some of its advantages from both a software and hardware perspective, its limitations, and its applicability to operational air quality activities.

scholarly journals Onboard Radio Frequency Interference as the Origin of Inter-Satellite Biases for Microwave Humidity Sounders

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imke Hans ◽  
Martin Burgdorf ◽  
Stefan A. Buehler
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Radio Frequency ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Radio Frequency Interference ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Compelling Evidence ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Correction Scheme

Understanding the causes of inter-satellite biases in climate data records from observations of the Earth is crucial for constructing a consistent time series of the essential climate variables. In this article, we analyse the strong scan- and time-dependent biases observed for the microwave humidity sounders on board the NOAA-16 and NOAA-19 satellites. We find compelling evidence that radio frequency interference (RFI) is the cause of the biases. We also devise a correction scheme for the raw count signals for the instruments to mitigate the effect of RFI. Our results show that the RFI-corrected, recalibrated data exhibit distinctly reduced biases and provide consistent time series.

scholarly journals Prediction of Short-Distance Aerial Movement of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Urediniospores Using Machine Learning

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (10) ◽  
pp. 1187-1198 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Wen ◽  
C. R. Bowen ◽  
G. L. Hartman
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Short Distance ◽  
Soybean Rust ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Phakopsora Pachyrhizi ◽  
Primary Means ◽  
Soybean Plants ◽  
Selection Operator ◽  
Active Trap

Dispersal of urediniospores by wind is the primary means of spread for Phakopsora pachyrhizi, the cause of soybean rust. Our research focused on the short-distance movement of urediniospores from within the soybean canopy and up to 61 m from field-grown rust-infected soybean plants. Environmental variables were used to develop and compare models including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, zero-inflated Poisson/regular Poisson regression, random forest, and neural network to describe deposition of urediniospores collected in passive and active traps. All four models identified distance of trap from source, humidity, temperature, wind direction, and wind speed as the five most important variables influencing short-distance movement of urediniospores. The random forest model provided the best predictions, explaining 76.1 and 86.8% of the total variation in the passive- and active-trap datasets, respectively. The prediction accuracy based on the correlation coefficient (r) between predicted values and the true values were 0.83 (P < 0.0001) and 0.94 (P < 0.0001) for the passive and active trap datasets, respectively. Overall, multiple machine learning techniques identified the most important variables to make the most accurate predictions of movement of P. pachyrhizi urediniospores short-distance.

scholarly journals Leveraging Road Characteristics and Contributor Behaviour for Assessing Road Type Quality in OSM

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 436
Author(s):  
Amerah Alghanim ◽  
Musfira Jilani ◽  
Michela Bertolotto ◽  
Gavin McArdle
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Classification Accuracy ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Semantic Inference ◽  
Road Type ◽  
The Impact

Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) is often collected by non-expert users. This raises concerns about the quality and veracity of such data. There has been much effort to understand and quantify the quality of VGI. Extrinsic measures which compare VGI to authoritative data sources such as National Mapping Agencies are common but the cost and slow update frequency of such data hinder the task. On the other hand, intrinsic measures which compare the data to heuristics or models built from the VGI data are becoming increasingly popular. Supervised machine learning techniques are particularly suitable for intrinsic measures of quality where they can infer and predict the properties of spatial data. In this article we are interested in assessing the quality of semantic information, such as the road type, associated with data in OpenStreetMap (OSM). We have developed a machine learning approach which utilises new intrinsic input features collected from the VGI dataset. Specifically, using our proposed novel approach we obtained an average classification accuracy of 84.12%. This result outperforms existing techniques on the same semantic inference task. The trustworthiness of the data used for developing and training machine learning models is important. To address this issue we have also developed a new measure for this using direct and indirect characteristics of OSM data such as its edit history along with an assessment of the users who contributed the data. An evaluation of the impact of data determined to be trustworthy within the machine learning model shows that the trusted data collected with the new approach improves the prediction accuracy of our machine learning technique. Specifically, our results demonstrate that the classification accuracy of our developed model is 87.75% when applied to a trusted dataset and 57.98% when applied to an untrusted dataset. Consequently, such results can be used to assess the quality of OSM and suggest improvements to the data set.

scholarly journals Development of Machine Learning Models to Evaluate the Toughness of OPH Alloys

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (21) ◽  
pp. 6713
Author(s):  
Omid Khalaj ◽  
Moslem Ghobadi ◽  
Ehsan Saebnoori ◽  
Alireza Zarezadeh ◽  
Mohammadreza Shishesaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Mechanical Alloying ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Oxide Dispersion Strengthened ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Anfis Model ◽  
Inference Systems ◽  
The Impact

Oxide Precipitation-Hardened (OPH) alloys are a new generation of Oxide Dispersion-Strengthened (ODS) alloys recently developed by the authors. The mechanical properties of this group of alloys are significantly influenced by the chemical composition and appropriate heat treatment (HT). The main steps in producing OPH alloys consist of mechanical alloying (MA) and consolidation, followed by hot rolling. Toughness was obtained from standard tensile test results for different variants of OPH alloy to understand their mechanical properties. Three machine learning techniques were developed using experimental data to simulate different outcomes. The effectivity of the impact of each parameter on the toughness of OPH alloys is discussed. By using the experimental results performed by the authors, the composition of OPH alloys (Al, Mo, Fe, Cr, Ta, Y, and O), HT conditions, and mechanical alloying (MA) were used to train the models as inputs and toughness was set as the output. The results demonstrated that all three models are suitable for predicting the toughness of OPH alloys, and the models fulfilled all the desired requirements. However, several criteria validated the fact that the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) model results in better conditions and has a better ability to simulate. The mean square error (MSE) for artificial neural networks (ANN), ANFIS, and support vector regression (SVR) models was 459.22, 0.0418, and 651.68 respectively. After performing the sensitivity analysis (SA) an optimized ANFIS model was achieved with a MSE value of 0.003 and demonstrated that HT temperature is the most significant of these parameters, and this acts as a critical rule in training the data sets.

scholarly journals Learning from Imbalanced Educational Data Using Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms

Webology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (Special Issue 01) ◽  
pp. 183-195
Author(s):  
Thingbaijam Lenin ◽  
N. Chandrasekaran
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Missing Values ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Adaptive Boosting ◽  
Stochastic Gradient Boosting ◽  
Ensemble Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Student’S Performance

Student’s academic performance is one of the most important parameters for evaluating the standard of any institute. It has become a paramount importance for any institute to identify the student at risk of underperforming or failing or even drop out from the course. Machine Learning techniques may be used to develop a model for predicting student’s performance as early as at the time of admission. The task however is challenging as the educational data required to explore for modelling are usually imbalanced. We explore ensemble machine learning techniques namely bagging algorithm like random forest (rf) and boosting algorithms like adaptive boosting (adaboost), stochastic gradient boosting (gbm), extreme gradient boosting (xgbTree) in an attempt to develop a model for predicting the student’s performance of a private university at Meghalaya using three categories of data namely demographic, prior academic record, personality. The collected data are found to be highly imbalanced and also consists of missing values. We employ k-nearest neighbor (knn) data imputation technique to tackle the missing values. The models are developed on the imputed data with 10 fold cross validation technique and are evaluated using precision, specificity, recall, kappa metrics. As the data are imbalanced, we avoid using accuracy as the metrics of evaluating the model and instead use balanced accuracy and F-score. We compare the ensemble technique with single classifier C4.5. The best result is provided by random forest and adaboost with F-score of 66.67%, balanced accuracy of 75%, and accuracy of 96.94%.

scholarly journals Heart Disease Prediction using Machine Learning Techniques

2021 ◽  
pp. 42-47
Author(s):  
Ramesh Ponnala ◽  
K. Sai Sowjanya
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Disease Prediction ◽  
Huge Amount ◽  
Healthcare Enterprise ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Accuracy Level

Prediction of Cardiovascular ailment is an important task inside the vicinity of clinical facts evaluation. Machine learning knowledge of has been proven to be effective in helping in making selections and predicting from the huge amount of facts produced by using the healthcare enterprise. on this paper, we advocate a unique technique that pursuits via finding good sized functions by means of applying ML strategies ensuing in improving the accuracy inside the prediction of heart ailment. The severity of the heart disease is classified primarily based on diverse methods like KNN, choice timber and so on. The prediction version is added with special combos of capabilities and several known classification techniques. We produce a stronger performance level with an accuracy level of a 100% through the prediction version for heart ailment with the Hybrid Random forest area with a linear model (HRFLM).

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