scholarly journals Forecasting and Assessment of the Energy Security Risk in Fuzzy Environment

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 5934
Author(s):  
Paweł Ziemba ◽  
Aneta Becker ◽  
Jarosław Becker

Energy security is of key importance for states and international organizations. An important issue in energy security is the assessment of current and future energy security methods. While the assessment of the current methods is relatively easy, since it is based on recent information, the assessment of the future methods is burdened with uncertainty and is therefore much more difficult. Therefore, the aim of the article is to develop a new approach for assessing current and future energy security issues based on a complex security index, supported by the computationally transparent fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. The use of the fuzzy MCDA methods allows one to capture the uncertainty of assessments and forecasts, and the forecasts themselves were based on the Holt’s method; the international energy security risk index (IESRI) was used as the source of the data to generate the forecasts. The research compared two data sources for forecasts (IESRI categories and metrics) and two methods of forecast fuzzification. As a result, the forecasted assessments and rankings of energy security for the 2020–2030 period were obtained. On the basis of these forecasts, general trends shaping energy security were also indicated.

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 3691
Author(s):  
Iztok Podbregar ◽  
Goran Šimić ◽  
Mirjana Radovanović ◽  
Sanja Filipović ◽  
Damjan Maletič ◽  
...  

The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients.


2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Chernyak ◽  
Ganna Kharlamova ◽  
Andriy Stavytskyy

Abstract The paper deals with the analysis and forecasting of energy security risk index for eleven European countries (the United Kingdom, Denmark, Norway, France, Germany, Poland, Spain, Italy, Norway, the Netherlands, and Ukraine for the period 1992-2016). Nowadays, energy security plays an important role in guaranteeing the national, political and economic security of the country. A literature review of different approaches to defining energy security gave the possibility to consider the regression model of energy security risk index assessment, which takes into account the levels of economic, technical and technological, ecological, social and resource components. This step was proceeded with clusterization of the analysed countries in three groups according to Energy Security Risk Index. Based on this approach resource-mining countries (Denmark, Germany, Norway and the UK) were grouped in Cluster I, while Ukraine occupied the last Cluster III. The next division in five clusters supported the indicated allocation. Finally, we calculated the forecasts of energy security risk index based on data of 1992-2014. It allowed realizing the perspectives of energy market for the nearest future, particularly for Ukraine, which needs development of a new strategy of energy security


Author(s):  
B.N. Chigarev

The article analyzes the general picture of the use of five indicators for assessing energy security: World Energy Trilemma Index, International Index of Energy Security Risk, SES. Sustainable Energy Security Index, Global Energy Architecture Performance, The IEA Model of Short-term Energy Security, proposed by international energy agencies in research studies on energy security. Their rare use in scientific publications and even in the texts of reports of a number of agencies is noted. As an example, the case of China shows that the use of indicators in conjunction with the regular International Energy Agency reports can only give a general picture of the country’s energy security, but does not allow a deeper analysis due to the lack of access to the source data. A brief bibliometric analysis of publications on energy security indicators is provided. It is shown that bibliometric indicators can be verstatile markers of expert attitude to the topic under study and identify promising areas of research on energy security issues.


Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iztok Podbregar ◽  
Goran Šimić ◽  
Mirjana Radovanović ◽  
Sanja Filipović ◽  
Polona Šprajc

The main objective of this paper is to analyze model settings of the International Energy Security Risk Index developed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The study was performed using stepwise regression, principal component analysis, and Promax oblique rotation. The conclusion of the regression analysis shows that Crude Oil Price and Global Coal Reserves are sufficient to explain 90% of the variance of the Index. However, if a model that explains 100% of the variance of the Index is chosen and other variables are added, Global Coal Reserves loses importance due to the presence of other parameters in which it is contained. Regardless of the chosen model of analysis, it is evident that there is room for revising the Index and removing variables that do not contribute to its precision. The research showed that the main disadvantage of the variables that make up the Index rests with the fact that the variables are of different degrees of generality, that is, one parameter is contained in other parameters (unclear which other). The research covers data for 25 countries over a 26-year period, with the first year of the research being 1980 and the last 2016 (the latest available report).


2007 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas L. Tookey

Environmental challenges, resulting from either a scarcity of natural resources or environmental degradation, may contribute to security risks in Central Asia. An encouraging sign is the recent attention of the governments of Central Asia, civil society groups and international organizations to these environmental security issues. Their efforts indicate that by working together to prevent conflicts caused by environmental problems, cooperation among the countries of Central Asia may expand. Both short and long-term obstacles must be overcome if these groups are to ensure that environmental stresses do not lead to security concerns.


Author(s):  
Ievgenii Shulga ◽  
◽  
Nataliia Shynkaruk ◽  
Nataliia Yashchuk ◽  
◽  
...  

The article examines topical problems of the role of international organizations in the direction of the development of alternative energy and strengthening of energy security in the world. Considerable attention is paid to the importance of the introduction and development of alternative energy in the context of ensuring environmental human rights and economic well-being. Analyzed the main international legal treaties regulating the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere and the use of alternative renewable energy sources. The main international governmental and non-governmental organizations in the direction of ensuring environmental and energy security have been identified. Attention is drawn to the need to strengthen the role of these organizations by strengthening the functions of supervision and monitoring to increase the possibility of influencing states that do not comply with the provisions of signed and ratified international conventions. It is concluded that it is necessary to adjust the vector of development of instruments for the protection of environmental rights in the direction of its world globalization. The existing global concept for the development of alternative energy sources requires changes. Given that the environmental problem is universal and, although to one degree or another, it still affects every person, regardless of country or nationality, the obligation to protect the environment must be universal, fulfilled and enforced not only by the government bodies of sovereign states, but also international government organizations. It is noted that the programs and recommendations of international organizations are developed directly for individual states, taking into account their geographical and economic location when choosing the types and methods of developing alternative energy.


Author(s):  
E. Telegina ◽  
M. Tadzhiev

According to judgemental forecasts, in the next few years the revolutionary changes in the energy complex both in the USA and in the world in general are hardly possible, considering the enormous inertia of the energetic system and high expenses coming from the infrastructure supersession, even in case of cost-effective alternatives to the existing energy commodities. At the same time, the sharpening of energy security problems resulting from the growth of a global demand on energy products leads to perceprion of necessity for a new approach to forming the global energy market, and to development of new stability and reliability strategies maintenance for assured supplies of energy products. In recent years, the USA as the biggest consumer of energy resources in the world worked out a new national strategy of energy security provision. Its main targets are: meeting the requirements of the American economy of its own resources, lowering the import-dependence level, high use of innovation technologies, significant increase of investments in alternative energy sources, as well as of resource-and energy-saving.


2020 ◽  
pp. 134-145
Author(s):  
Envarbik M. Fazelianov ◽  

This article analyzes the problem of energy security as a factor of global sustainable development. The energy sector faces new challenges, as well as expanding opportunities for both developed and developing countries. The global nature of energy security increasingly requires the formation of an international energy strategy that allows us to look into the common energy future, and the further development of a broad dialogue on energy issues between various countries and relevant international organizations. The relevance of this article is of interest to the entire energy community. The problem and the main components of energy security are in the field of view of summits, attract the attention of various international forums, and its solution is interlinked with sustainable development, climate change and the environment.


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