scholarly journals Pneumonic Plague: Incidence, Transmissibility and Future Risks

Hygiene ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-27
Author(s):  
Charles Evans
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Real World ◽  
Access To Medicines ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Pneumonic Plague ◽  
Modern Times ◽  
Microbial Strains ◽  
Natural Cycles

Pneumonic plague outbreaks are relatively infrequent in modern times, but in the early part of the 20th century, they were commonplace including several well-documented epidemics responsible for the deaths of thousands. The transmissibility of this disease seems to be discontinuous since in some outbreaks few transmissions occur, while in others, the progression of the epidemic is explosive. Modern epidemiological studies explain that transmissibility within populations is heterogenous with relatively few subjects likely to be responsible for most transmissions and that ‘super spreading events’, particularly at the start of an outbreak, can lead to a rapid expansion of cases. These findings concur with outbreaks observed in real-world situations. It is often reported that pneumonic plague is rare and not easily transmitted but this view could lead to unnecessary complacency since future risks such as the spontaneous incidence of anti-microbial strains, climate change leading to a disruption of natural cycles within plague foci and use of plague as a bioweapon cannot be discounted. Carers and first responders are vulnerable, particularly in poorer countries where access to medicines and protection equipment may be limited, outbreaks occur in inaccessible areas or where there is a lack of surveillance due to a paucity of funds.

scholarly journals Pneumonic Plague: Incidence, Transmissibility and Future Risks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Evans
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Real World ◽  
Access To Medicines ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Pneumonic Plague ◽  
Modern Times ◽  
Microbial Strains ◽  
Natural Cycles

Pneumonic plague outbreaks are relatively infrequent in modern times but in the early part of the 20th century, they were commonplace including several well-documented epidemics responsible for the deaths of thousands. The transmissibility of this disease seems to be discontinuous since in some outbreaks few transmissions occur, while in others, the progression of the epidemic is explosive. Modern epidemiological studies explain that transmissibility within populations is heterogenous with relatively few subjects likely to be responsible for most transmissions and that ‘super spreading events’, particularly at the start of an outbreak, can lead to a rapid expansion of cases. These findings concur with outbreaks observed in real-world situations. It is often reported that pneumonic plague is rare and not easily transmitted but this view could lead to unnecessary complacency since future risks such as the spontaneous incidence of anti-microbial strains, climate change leading to a disruption of natural cycles within plague foci and use of plague as a bioweapon cannot be discounted. Carers and first responders are vulnerable, particularly in poorer countries where access to medicines may be limited, out-breaks occur in inaccessible areas or where there is a lack of surveillance due to a paucity of funds.

Act Consequentialism and the No-Difference Challenge

2020 ◽  
pp. 633-654
Author(s):  
Holly Lawford-Smith ◽  
William Tuckwell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Real World ◽  
Global Poverty ◽  
Difference Making ◽  
Act Consequentialism

According to act-consequentialism, only actions that make a difference to an outcome can be morally bad. Yet, there are classes of actions that don’t make a difference, but nevertheless seem to be morally bad. Explaining how such non-difference making actions are morally bad presents a challenge for act-consequentialism: the no-difference challenge. In this chapter we go into detail on what the no-difference challenge is, focusing in particular on act consequentialism. We talk about how different theories of causation affect the no-difference challenge; how the challenge shows up in real-world cases, including voting, global labor injustice, global poverty, and climate change; and we work through a number of the solutions to the challenge that have been offered, arguing that many fail to actually meet it. We defend and extend one solution that does, and we present a further solution of our own.

scholarly journals Contrasting Evolution Patterns of Endorheic and Exorheic Lakes on the Central Tibetan Plateau and Climate Cause Analysis during 1988–2017

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 1962
Author(s):  
Zhilong Zhao ◽  
Yue Zhang ◽  
Zengzeng Hu ◽  
Xuanhua Nie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Mean Temperature

The alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are indicators of climate change. The assessment of lake dynamics on the TP is an important component of global climate change research. With a focus on lakes in the 33° N zone of the central TP, this study investigates the temporal evolution patterns of the lake areas of different types of lakes, i.e., non-glacier-fed endorheic lakes and non-glacier-fed exorheic lakes, during 1988–2017, and examines their relationship with changes in climatic factors. From 1988 to 2017, two endorheic lakes (Lake Yagenco and Lake Zhamcomaqiong) in the study area expanded significantly, i.e., by more than 50%. Over the same period, two exorheic lakes within the study area also exhibited spatio-temporal variability: Lake Gaeencuonama increased by 5.48%, and the change in Lake Zhamuco was not significant. The 2000s was a period of rapid expansion of both the closed lakes (endorheic lakes) and open lakes (exorheic lakes) in the study area. However, the endorheic lakes maintained the increase in lake area after the period of rapid expansion, while the exorheic lakes decreased after significant expansion. During 1988–2017, the annual mean temperature significantly increased at a rate of 0.04 °C/a, while the annual precipitation slightly increased at a rate of 2.23 mm/a. Furthermore, the annual precipitation significantly increased at a rate of 14.28 mm/a during 1995–2008. The results of this study demonstrate that the change in precipitation was responsible for the observed changes in the lake areas of the two exorheic lakes within the study area, while the changes in the lake areas of the two endorheic lakes were more sensitive to the annual mean temperature between 1988 and 2017. Given the importance of lakes to the TP, these are not trivial issues, and we now need accelerated research based on long-term and continuous remote sensing data.

scholarly journals Rethinking Climate, Climate Change, and Their Relationship with Water

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 849
Author(s):  
Demetris Koutsoyiannis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Main Element ◽  
The Political ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Modern Times ◽  
External Agent ◽  
Historical Investigation ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Water Issues

We revisit the notion of climate, along with its historical evolution, tracing the origin of the modern concerns about climate. The notion (and the scientific term) of climate was established during the Greek antiquity in a geographical context and it acquired its statistical content (average weather) in modern times after meteorological measurements had become common. Yet the modern definitions of climate are seriously affected by the wrong perception of the previous two centuries that climate should regularly be constant, unless an external agent acts upon it. Therefore, we attempt to give a more rigorous definition of climate, consistent with the modern body of stochastics. We illustrate the definition by real-world data, which also exemplify the large climatic variability. Given this variability, the term “climate change” turns out to be scientifically unjustified. Specifically, it is a pleonasm as climate, like weather, has been ever-changing. Indeed, a historical investigation reveals that the aim in using that term is not scientific but political. Within the political aims, water issues have been greatly promoted by projecting future catastrophes while reversing true roles and causality directions. For this reason, we provide arguments that water is the main element that drives climate, and not the opposite.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Aerosol Sciences

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Kehan Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Environmental Policy ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Environmental Policies ◽  
Modern Times

Climate change is of great importance in modern times and global warming is considered as a significant part of climate change. It is proved that human’s emissions such as greenhouse gases are one of the main sources of global warming (IPCC, 2018). Apart from greenhouse gases, there is another kind of matter being released in quantity via emissions from industries and transportations and playing an important role in global warming, which is aerosol. However, atmospheric aerosols have the net effect of cooling towards global warming. In this paper, climate change with respect to global warming is briefly introduced and the role of aerosols in the atmosphere is emphasized. Besides, properties of aerosols including dynamics and thermodynamics of aerosols as well as interactions with solar radiation are concluded. In the end, environmental policies and solutions are discussed. Keywords: Climate change, Global warming, Atmospheric aerosols, Particulate matter, Radiation, Environmental policy.

scholarly journals Drug treatment for early Alzheimer's disease

1998 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 126-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Bullock
Keyword(s):  
Alzheimer’S Disease ◽  
Alzheimer's Disease ◽  
Molecular Biology ◽  
Drug Treatment ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Chronic Conditions ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Early Alzheimer’S Disease

Alzheimer's disease is likely to be one of the challenges for the early part of the 21st century. Better knowledge of the molecular biology, genetics and pathogenesis of the condition have led to a host of psychopharmacological compounds being developed which may help in its the treatment, while epidemiological studies have suggested that existing treatments for other chronic conditions may have an effect on the presentation of Alzheimer's disease.

Topic modelling of public Twitter discourses, part bot, part active human user, on climate change and global warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-53
Author(s):  
Ahmed Al-Rawi ◽  
Oumar Kane ◽  
Aimé-Jules Bizimana
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Mixed Method ◽  
Large Datasets ◽  
Online Discussions ◽  
Topic Modelling ◽  
Twitter Users ◽  
Method Approach ◽  
Different Parts ◽  
Natural Cycles

Twitter is a key site for understanding the highly polarized and politicized debate around climate change. We examined large datasets comprising about 15 million tweets from different parts of the world referencing climate change and global warming. Our examination of the twenty most active users employing the term ‘global warming’ are likely to be automated accounts or bots than the most active users employing the term ‘climate change’. We used a mixed method approach including topic modelling, which is a digital method that automatedly identifies the top topics using an algorithm to understand how Twitter users engage with discussions on ‘climate change’ and ‘global warming’. The percentage of the top 400 users who use the term ‘climate change’ and believe it is human-made or anthropogenic (82.5%) is much higher than users who use the term ‘global warming’ and believe in human causation (25.5%). Similarly, the percentage of active users who use the term ‘global warming’ were much more likely to believe it is a results of natural cycles (18%) than active users who use the term ‘climate change’ (5%). We also identified and qualitatively analysed the positions of the most active users. Our findings reveal clear politically polarized views, with many politicians cited and trolled in online discussions, and significant differences reflected in terminology.

A Review of Digital Health Design Approaches: Challenges Towards Real World Implementation (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Duffy ◽  
Sylvain Moreno ◽  
Greg Christie
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
User Satisfaction ◽  
Digital Health ◽  
Healthcare Delivery ◽  
Health Intervention ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Stakeholder Group ◽  
Design Approach ◽  
Intervention Design ◽  
Growing Pains

BACKGROUND Digital health represents an important strategy in the future of healthcare delivery. Over the past decade, mHealth has accelerated the agency of healthcare users. Despite prevailing excitement about the potential of digital health, questions remain on efficacy, uptake, usability and patience outcome. This challenge is confounded by two industries, DIGITAL and HEALTH, that have vastly different approaches to research, design, testing and implementation. In this regard, there is a need to examine prevailing design approaches, to weigh their benefits and challenges towards implementation, and to recommend a path forward that synthesises the needs of this complex stakeholder group. OBJECTIVE This review studies prominent digital health intervention (DHI) design approaches mediating the digital health space. In doing so, we seek to examine each methodology’s: origins, perceived benefits, contrasting nuances, challenges, and typical use-case scenarios. METHODS A narrative synthesis approach to literature review was employed to review existing evidence. We searched indexed scientific literature using keywords relative to different digital health intervention designs. Papers selected after screening were those that discussed the design and implementation of digital health design approaches. RESULTS 120 papers on intervention design were selected for full-text review. We selected the 20 most prominent papers on each design approach, synthesizing findings under the categories of origins, advantages, disadvantages, challenges and cases. CONCLUSIONS Digital health is experiencing the growing pains of rapid expansion. Currently, numerous design approaches are being implemented in order to harmonise the needs of a complex stakeholder group. Whether the primary stakeholder is positioned as the end-user/person/human/patient, the challenge to synthesise the constraints and affordances of both digital design and healthcare, built equally around user satisfaction and clinically efficacy remains paramount. Further research that works towards a transdisciplinarity in digital health may help to break down friction in this field. Until digital health is viewed as a hybridised industry with unique requirements rather than competing interests, the nuances that each design approach posits will be difficult to realise in a real world context. We encourage the collaboration of digital and health experts within hybrid design teams, through all stages of intervention design, in order to create a better digital health culture and design ethos.

CLIMATE-CHANGE STUDIES IN THE MAYA AREA

2002 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel D. Gunn ◽  
Ray T. Matheny ◽  
William J. Folan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Annual Meeting ◽  
Maya Lowlands ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Modern Times ◽  
The Past ◽  
Cultural Paradigms ◽  
Physical Forces ◽  
Maya Area

The series of papers on climate change published in this issue are the result of the symposium “Environmental Change in Mesoamerica: Physical Forces and Cultural Paradigms in the Preclassic to Postclassic,” held at the 63rd Annual Meeting of the Society for American Archaeology in March 2000 in Philadelphia. The authors bring their expertise in paleoclimatological studies to bear on the Maya Lowlands and Highlands from the beginning of the Holocene to the Postclassic and modern times. The studies reveal that climate has changed during the past 4,000 years to a considerable degree that correlates in a reasonable way with archaeological periodizations. Several climate-change models are presented as an effort to understand better past cultural and natural events.

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