Climate Change Increases the Expansion Risk of Helicoverpa zea in China According to Potential Geographical Distribution Estimation

Helicoverpa zea, a well-documented and endemic pest throughout most of the Americas, affecting more than 100 species of host plants. It is a quarantine pest according to the Asia and Pacific Plant Protection Commission (APPPC) and the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People’s Republic of China. Based on 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea were predicted by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The contribution rate of bioclimatic variables and the jackknife method were integrated to assess the significant variables governing the PGDs. The response curves of bioclimatic variables were quantitatively determined to predict the PGDs of H. zea under climate change. The results showed that: (1) four out of the eight variables contributed the most to the model performance, namely, mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) PGDs of H. zea under the current climate covered 418.15 × 104 km2, and were large in China; and (3) future climate change will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in both the 2030s and 2050s. The conversion of unsuitable to low suitability habitat and moderately to high suitability habitat increased by 8.43% and 2.35%, respectively. From the present day to the 2030s, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the centroid of the suitable habitats of H. zea showed a general tendency to move eastward; from 2030s to the 2050s, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, it moved southward, and it moved slightly northward under SSP2-4.5. According to bioclimatic conditions, H. zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to host plants and containers of H. zea and should exchange information to strengthen plant quarantine and pest monitoring, thus enhancing target management.

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Continental vs. Global Niche-Based Modelling of Freshwater Species’ Distributions: How Big Are the Differences in the Estimated Climate Change Effects?

Water ◽

10.3390/w13060816 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (6) ◽

pp. 816

Author(s):

Danijela Markovic ◽

Jörg Freyhof ◽

Oskar Kärcher

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Thermal Properties ◽

Safety Margin ◽

Thermal Response ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Freshwater Species ◽

Response Curves ◽

Preferred Temperature ◽

Continental Scale ◽

Management Actions

Thermal response curves that depict the probability of occurrence along a thermal gradient are used to derive various species’ thermal properties and abilities to cope with warming. However, different thermal responses can be expected for different portions of a species range. We focus on differences in thermal response curves (TRCs) and thermal niche requirements for four freshwater fishes (Coregonus sardinella, Pungitius pungitius, Rutilus rutilus, Salvelinus alpinus) native to Europe at (1) the global and (2) European continental scale. European ranges captured only a portion of the global thermal range with major differences in the minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax) and average temperature (Tav) of the respective distributions. Further investigations of the model-derived preferred temperature (Tpref), warming tolerance (WT = Tmax − Tpref), safety margin (SM = Tpref − Tav) and the future climatic impact showed substantially differing results. All considered thermal properties either were under- or overestimated at the European level. Our results highlight that, although continental analyses have an impressive spatial extent, they might deliver misleading estimates of species thermal niches and future climate change impacts, if they do not cover the full species ranges. Studies and management actions should therefore favor whole global range distribution data for analyzing species responses to environmental gradients.

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Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli9010016 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 16

Author(s):

Suzanna Meeussen ◽

Anouschka Hof

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Geographic Range ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Distribution Ranges ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Suitable Area ◽

The Impact

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

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Predicting Climate-Driven Habitat Shifting of the near Threatened Satyr Tragopan (Tragopan Satyra; Galliformes) in the Himalayas

Avian Biology Research ◽

10.3184/175815618x15316676114070 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 221-230 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Bijoy Chhetri ◽

Hemant K. Badola ◽

Sudip Barat

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenario ◽

Azimuth Angle ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Slope Aspect ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The Future ◽

Present Distribution ◽

Community Assemblages

Current rates of climatic change will affect the structure and function of community assemblages on Earth. In recent decades, advances in modelling techniques have illuminated the potential effects of various climatic scenarios on biodiversity hotspots, including community assemblages in the Himalayas. These techniques have been used to test the effects of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) AR5-2050, based on future greenhouse gas emission trajectories of climate change scenario/year combinations, on pheasants. Current bioclimatic variables, Miroc-esm, Hadgem2-AO and Gfdl-cm3, in future climate change scenario models, were used to predict the future distribution and the gain/loss of future habitat area, within the Himalayas, of the pheasant, Satyr Tragopon (Tragopan satyra). The results indicate that future climatic conditions may significantly affect the future distribution of Satyr Tragopon and the effectiveness of protective areas (PAs). Using the python based GIS toolkit, SDM projection, regions of high risk under climate change scenarios were identified. To predict the present distribution of the species, environment parameters of bioclimatic variables, red reflectance, blue reflectance, solar azimuth angle, altitude, slope, aspect, NDVI, EVI, VI, and LCLU were used. The forest cover (NDVI) and the canopy cover (EVI), and variables affecting forest structure, namely altitude, slope, solar azimuth angle and Bio7, were the primary factors dictating the present distribution of T. satyra. The predicted trend of habitat shifting of T. satyra in the Himalayas to higher altitudes and latitudes will gradually become more prominent with climate warming.

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Predicting the Global Distribution of Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) under Climate Change Using the MaxEnt Model

Insects ◽

10.3390/insects12030229 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 229

Author(s):

Cheol Min Lee ◽

Dae-Seong Lee ◽

Tae-Sung Kwon ◽

Mohammad Athar ◽

Young-Seuk Park

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Influential Factors ◽

Future Climate ◽

Global Distribution ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Solenopsis Geminata ◽

Proactive Management ◽

Bioclimatic Variables

The tropical fire ant Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is a serious invasive species that causes a decline in agricultural production, damages infrastructure, and harms human health. This study was aimed to develop a model using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to predict the current and future distribution of S. geminata on a global scale for effective monitoring and management. In total, 669 occurrence sites of S. geminata and six bioclimatic variables of current and future climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2100 were used for the modeling. The annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the driest quarter were the key influential factors for determining the distribution of S. geminata. Although the potential global distribution area of S. geminata is predicted to decrease slightly under global warming, the distribution of favorable habitats is predicted to expand to high latitudes under climate scenarios. In addition, some countries in America and East Asia, such as Brazil, China, South Korea, the USA, and Uruguay, are predicted to be threatened by S. geminata invasion under future climate change. These findings can facilitate the proactive management of S. geminata through monitoring, surveillance, and quarantine measures.

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Predicting the Potential Habitat of Three Endangered Species of Carpinus genus under Climate Change and Human Activity

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12091216 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (9) ◽

pp. 1216

Author(s):

Jiejie Sun ◽

Lei Feng ◽

Tongli Wang ◽

Xiangni Tian ◽

Xiao He ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Endangered Species ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Potential Habitat ◽

Human Footprint ◽

Precipitation Seasonality ◽

The Future ◽

Potential Habitats ◽

The Impact

The impact of climate change and human activities on endangered plants has been a serious concern in forest ecology. Some Carpinus plants have become extinct. Thus, we need to pay more attention to the Carpinus plants that are not yet extinct but are endangered. Here, we employed the species distribution model (SDM) considering different climate change scenarios and human footprint to test the potential habitat changes of three Carpinus species (C. oblongifolia, C. tientaiensis, and C. purpurinervis) in the future. Our results showed that the mean diurnal range of temperature (MDRT), isothermality, mean temperature of wettest quarter, and human footprint were the most influential factors determining the distribution of C. oblongifolia. Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation), MDRT, and precipitation of driest quarter were the most important climatic factors affecting C. tientaiensis. The minimum temperature of the coldest month was the most important factor in the distribution of C. purpurinervis. Our results also showed that the three species had different adaptability and habitat change trends under the future climate change scenarios, although they belong to the same genus. The potential habitats of C. oblongifolia would expand in the future, while the potential habitats of C. tientaiensis and C. purpurinervis would decrease for the same period. The predicted changes of these three endangered species on temporal and spatial patterns could provide a theoretical basis for their conservation strategies.

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Predictions of future grazing season length for European dairy, beef and sheep farms based on regression with bioclimatic variables

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859615000830 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 154 (5) ◽

pp. 765-781 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

P. PHELAN ◽

E. R. MORGAN ◽

H. ROSE ◽

J. GRANT ◽

P. O'KIELY

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Season Length ◽

The West ◽

Grazing Season ◽

North East ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The Impact

SUMMARYGrazing season length (GSL) on grassland farms with ruminant production systems can influence farm economics, livestock disease transmission, environmental impact, milk and meat quality, and consumer choice. Bioclimatic variables are biologically meaningful climate variables that may enable predictions of the impact of future climate change on GSL on European farms. The present study investigated the spatial relationship between current GSL (months) measured by EUROSTAT on dairy, beef and sheep farms in 706, 774 and 878 regions, respectively, and bioclimatic variables. A stepwise multiple regression model revealed a highly significant association between observed GSL and bioclimatic variables across Europe. Mean GSL was positively associated with the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and isothermality, and negatively associated with precipitation in the wettest month. Extrapolating these relationships to future climate change scenarios, most European countries were predicted to have a net increase in GSL with the increase being largest (up to 2·5 months) in the north-east of Europe. However, there were also predictions of increased variability between regions and decreases in GSL of up to 1·5 months in some areas such as the west of France, the south-west of Norway and the west coast of Britain. The study quantified and mapped the potential impact of climate change on GSL for dairy, beef and sheep farms across Europe.

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Projected Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of a Vulnerable Endemic Vachellia negrii (Pic.-Serm.) (Fabaceae) in Ethiopia

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su132011275 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (20) ◽

pp. 11275

Author(s):

Arayaselassie Abebe Semu ◽

Tamrat Bekele ◽

Ermias Lulekal ◽

Paloma Cariñanos ◽

Sileshi Nemomissa

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Anthropogenic Impacts ◽

Leading Edge ◽

Range Shift ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Herbarium Specimens ◽

Climate System Model ◽

Precipitation Seasonality ◽

Bioclimatic Variables

Species tend to shift their suitable habitat both altitudinally and latitudinally under climate change. Range shift in plants brings about habitat contraction at rear edges, forcing leading edge populations to explore newly available suitable habitats. In order to detect these scenarios, modeling of the future geographical distribution of the species is widely used. Vachellia negrii (Pic.-Serm.) Kyal. & Boatwr. is endemic to Ethiopia and was assessed as vulnerable due to changes to its habitat by anthropogenic impacts. It occurs in upland wooded grassland from 2000–3100 m.a.s.l. The main objective of this study is to model the distribution of Vachellia negrii in Ethiopia by using Maxent under climate change. Nineteen bioclimatic variables were downloaded from an open source. Furthermore, topographic position index (tpi), solar radiation index (sri) and elevation were used. Two representative concentration pathways were selected (RCP 4.5 and RC P8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070 using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM 5). A correlation analysis of the bioclimatic variables has resulted in the retention of 10 bioclimatic variables for modeling. Forty-eight occurrence points were collected from herbarium specimens. The area under curve (AUC) is 0.94, indicating a high-performance level of the model. The distribution of the species is affected by elevation (26.4%), precipitation of the driest month (Bio 14, 21.7%), solar radiation (12.9%) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15, 12.2%). Whereas the RCP 8.5 has resulted in decrease of suitable areas of the species from the current 4,314,153.94 ha (3.80%) to 4,059,150.90 ha (3.58%) in 2050, this area will shrink to 3,555,828.71 ha in 2070 under the same scenario. As climate change severely affects the environment, highly suitable areas for the growth of the study subject will decrease by 758,325 ha. The study’s results shows that this vulnerable, endemic species is facing habitat contraction and requires interventions to ensure its long-term persistence.

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Predicting Mango Sudden Decline Due to Ceratocystis fimbriata Under a Changing Climate

Arab Journal Of Plant Protection ◽

10.22268/ajpp-039.3.215223 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 39 (3) ◽

pp. 215-223

Author(s):

Amna M. Al-Ruheili ◽

◽

Alaba Boluwade ◽

Ali M. Al-Subhi ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Fruit Trees ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ceratocystis Fimbriata ◽

Jackknife Test ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Diurnal Range ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

Suitable Area

Mango fruit trees are an important fruit crop due to their high value. Mango sudden decline (MSD) is a major disease that threatens mango trees in Oman and worldwide. The objective of this study was to identify those areas in northern Oman in which Ceratocystis fimbriata (a plant fungal pathogen causing MSD) may establish itself under various climate change scenarios. The MaxEnt model used in this study was based on data for the period 1970-2000 and then projected to future climate periods. This study modeled the future distribution of C. fimbriata for 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 climatic scenarios. Fifteen affected locations and seven bioclimatic variables were investigated in this study. The model showed values between 0.896 and 0.913 (habitat suitability) which represented a good model outcome. The jackknife test showed that the mean diurnal range in temperature, precipitation of the driest month, and elevation contributed to C. fimbriata distribution. From 2021 through 2040, a total area of 1,889 km2 was found to be highly suitable for C. fimbriata in Northern Oman. Compared with the 2021–2040 period, the poorly suitable area would increase in both 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 periods. The moderately suitable regions for C. fimbriata would decrease under all scenarios investigated. However, the total area of the suitable areas, with all scenarios, would increase, except during the 2041-2060 period. This research offers a tool to better manage and prevent the possible Ceratocystis blight (C. fimbriata) and bark beetle (Hypocryphalus mangiferae) invasions under future projected climatic scenarios. Keywords: Mango sudden decline (MSD), “Ceratocystis fimbriata”, bioclimatic variables, climate change, Sultanate of Oman, Maxent.

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Responses of photosynthesis and component processes to drought and temperature stress: are Mediterranean trees fit for climate change?

Tree Physiology ◽

10.1093/treephys/tpz089 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 39 (11) ◽

pp. 1783-1805 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

D Sperlich ◽

C T Chang ◽

J Peñuelas ◽

S Sabaté

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Temperature Stress ◽

Pinus Halepensis ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Tropical Species ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Response Curves ◽

Component Processes ◽

Leaf Shedding ◽

Seasonal Acclimation

Abstract Global warming is raising concerns about the acclimatory capacity of trees and forests, especially in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. The sensitivity of photosynthesis to temperature is a key uncertainty for projecting the magnitude of terrestrial feedbacks on future climate change. While boreal, temperate and tropical species have been comparatively well investigated, our study provides the first comprehensive overview of the seasonal acclimatory responses of photosynthesis and its component processes to temperature in four Mediterranean climax species under natural conditions. We quantified seasonal changes in the responses of net photosynthesis (Anet), stomatal conductance (gs), mesophyllic conductance (gm) and electron-transport rate (Jcf), and investigated their sensitivity to drought and temperature stress in sunlit and shaded leaves of four Mediterranean tree species (Quercus ilex L., Pinus halepensis Mill., Arbutus unedo L. and Quercus pubescens Willd.). Sunlit leaves, but not shaded leaves, showed a pronounced seasonality in the temperature responses of Anet, gs, gm and Jcf. All four species and variables showed a remarkably dynamic and consistent acclimation of the thermal optimum (Topt), reaching peaks in summer ~29–32 °C. Changes in the shape of the response curves were, however, highly species-specific. Under severe drought, Topt of all variables were on average 22–29% lower. This was accompanied by narrower response curves above all in P. halepensis, reducing the optimal range for photosynthesis to the cooler morning or evening periods. Wider temperature-response curves and less strict stomatal control under severe drought were accompanied by wilting and drought-induced leaf shedding in Q. ilex and Q. pubescens and by additional branch dieback in A. unedo. Mild winter conditions led to a high Topt (~19.1–22.2 °C), benefitting the evergreen species, especially P. halepensis. Seasonal acclimation of Anet was explained better by gs and gm being less pronounced in Jcf. Drought was thus a key factor, in addition to growth temperature, to explain seasonal acclimation of photosynthesis. Severe drought periods may exceed more frequently the high acclimatory capacity of Mediterranean trees to high ambient temperatures, which could lead to reduced growth, increased leaf shedding and, for some species such as A. unedo, increased mortality risk.

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Potential Distribution of the Biocontrol Agent Toxorhynchites rutilus By 2070

Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association ◽

10.2987/8756-971x-36.3.131 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 36 (3) ◽

pp. 131-138

Author(s):

Daniel S. Marshall ◽

Christopher J. Butler

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Biocontrol Agent ◽

Mosquito Control ◽

Disease Incidence ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Precipitation Seasonality ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Toxorhynchites Rutilus

ABSTRACT Climate change projections indicate that mosquito distributions will expand to include new areas of North America, increasing human exposure to mosquito-borne disease. Controlling these vectors is imperative, as mosquito-borne disease incidence will rise in response to expansion of mosquito range and increased seasonality. One means of mosquito control used in the USA is the biocontrol agent, Toxorhynchites rutilus. Climate change will open new habitats for its use by vector control organizations, but the extent of this change in habitat is currently unknown. We used a maximum entropy approach to create species distribution models for Tx. rutilus under 4 climate change scenarios by 2070. Mean temperature of warmest quarter (22.6°C to 29.1°C), annual precipitation (1,025.15 mm to 1,529.40 mm), and precipitation seasonality (≤17.86) are the most important bioclimatic variables for suitable habitat. The center of current possible habitat distribution of Tx. rutilus is in central Tennessee. Depending upon the scenario, we expect centroids to shift north-northeast by 97.68 km to 280.16 km by 2070. The extreme change in area of greater than 50% suitable habitat probability is 141.14% with 99.44% area retained. Our models indicate limited change in current habitat as well as creation of new habitat. These results are promising for North American mosquito control programs for the continued and potential combat of vector mosquitoes using Tx. rutilus.

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