scholarly journals Does Chinese FDI, Climate Change, and CO2 Emissions Stimulate Agricultural Productivity? An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shakeel Ahmad ◽  
Muhammad Tariq ◽  
Touseef Hussain ◽  
Qasir Abbas ◽  
Hamidullah Elham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Pakistan’s agricultural sector growth is dwindling from the last several years due to insufficient foreign direct investment (FDI) and a drastic climate change-induced raise in temperature, which are severely affecting agricultural production. The FDI has paramount importance for the economy of developing countries as well as the improvement of agricultural production. Based on the time series data from 1984 to 2017, this paper aims to highlight the present situation of the agriculture sector of Pakistan and empirically analyze the short-run and long-run impact of Chinese foreign direct investment (CFDI), climate change, and CO2 emissions on agricultural productivity and causality among the variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) model and Granger Causality test were employed to find out the long-run, short-run, and causal relationships among the variables of interest. Furthermore, we have employed the Error Correction Model (ECM) to know the convergence of the equilibrium path. The bound test results verified the existence of a long-run association, and the empirical findings confirmed that Chinese FDI has a significant and positive impact, while climate change and CO2 emissions has negative impact on the agricultural growth of Pakistan both in the short-run and long-run. Granger Causality test results revealed that variables of interest exhibit bi-directional and uni-directional causality. The sector-wise flow of FDI reveals that the agriculture sector of Pakistan has comparatively received a less amount of FDI than other sectors of the economy. Based on the findings, it was suggested to the Government of Pakistan and policymakers to induce more FDI in the agriculture sector. Such policies would be helpful for the progress of the agriculture sector as well as for the economic growth of Pakistan.

scholarly journals Assessment of Formal Credit and Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Production in Pakistan: A Time Series ARDL Modeling Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 5241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Abdul Rauf ◽  
Fayyaz Ahmad ◽  
Waqas Amin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Technology Use ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tube Wells ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to investigate the short-run and long-run impact of formal credit (CR) and climate change (CC, via CO2 emissions) on agricultural production (AP) in Pakistan. In addition, other imperative control variables included in this study comprise technology factors (tractors (TRs) and tube wells (TWs), energy consumption (EC), and labor force (LF). This study used annual data covering the period 1983–2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is applied to explore the cointegration between the underlying variables and used the granger causality test under the vector error correction model (VECM) context to determine the direction of causality among the variables. The findings of the ARDL bounds-testing approach suggest that there is a long-term relationship among formal credit, climate change (CO2 emissions), technology factors (tractors and tube wells), energy consumption, labor force, and agricultural production. The empirical results reveal that formal credit, technology use (tractors), and labor force have a positive and significant impact on agricultural production in both the short-run and long-run. CO2 emissions have a positive impact on agricultural production but are not significant in either case. Finally, a unidirectional relationship is established from formal credit to agricultural production; labor force to agricultural production; and electricity consumption and technology factors (tractors and tube wells) to CO2 emissions. The recent study claims that formal institutions should guarantee the redeployment of their services/amenities to those who call for them acutely, with the purpose of boosting their approach to monetary credit facilities and empower farmers to further the resilience that will capitalize on post-fruitage enrichments. Finally, considering that climatic change is a widespread fact with regional community trajectories, perhaps the global community may provide reassurance for loaning to smallholder agriculturalists through central and commercial banks by protecting the moneys that banks lend to the agriculturalists towards supporting climatic change espousal strategies.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment, External Debt, and Balance of Payment: A Causality Analysis for Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mahmud Mostafa
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Short Run

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causal relationship of external debt and balance of payment with foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh for the period of 1980 to 2017 through the application of Johansen Cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger Causality approach. Results of cointegration and VECM indicate a significant long-run relationship between dependent (FDI) and independent variables (external debt and balance of payment). External debt is found to have a significant negative impact on FDI in the long-run, but it is found insignificant in the short-run. In contrast, the balance of payment has a significant positive effect on FDI both in the long-run and short-run. Results of the Granger causality test reveal that there exists bidirectional short-run causality between the balance of payment and FDI; that is, both the balance of payment and FDI affect each other. But no unidirectional or bidirectional short-run causality is found between external debt and FDI. Keywords: FDI, external debt, balance of payment, cointegration, VECM, causality

scholarly journals TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye ◽  
Wee-Yeap Lau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study is to develop first time trade openness index and use this index to examine the link between trade openness and economic growth in case of India. This study employs a new endogenous growth model for theoretical support, auto-regressive distributive lag model and rolling window regression method in order to determine long run and short run association between trade openness and economic growth. Further granger causality test is used to determine the long run and short run causal direction. The results reveal that human capital and physical capital are positively related to economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, trade openness index negatively impacts on economic growth in the long run. The new evidence is provided by the rolling window regression results i.e. the impact of trade openness index on economic growth is not stable throughout the sample. In the short run trade openness index is positively related to economic growth. The result of granger causality test confirms the validity of trade openness-led growth and human capital-led growth hypothesis in the short run and long run.

scholarly journals The nexus between foreign direct investment and environmental sustainability in North Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-68
Author(s):  
Marwa Lazreg ◽  
Ezzeddine Zouari
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
North African ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The North ◽  
North African Countries

This paper provides a study of the relationship between sustainable development and foreign direct investment (FDI) from an empirical point of view in the case of the North African countries during the period from 1985 to 2005. We use the cointegration test, the FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares) model and the Granger causality test to examine this relationship. According to the empirical results, we confirm the existence of a cointegration relationship between the different series studied in this paper. Based on the cointegration test we can use the error correction model. Also, to test the effect of FDI on sustainable development in the North African countries, we make an estimate by FMOLS method. We found that the foreign direct investment has a positive impact on CO2 emissions. Also, the Granger Causality test confirms the presence of a bidirectional relationship between FDI and CO2 emissions (Carbon dioxide). That is to say, the FDI can cause CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions can cause FDI based on the Granger causality.

scholarly journals Economic Policy Uncertainty and Financial Innovation: Is There Any Affiliation?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeng Jia ◽  
Besnik Hajdari ◽  
Rimsha Khalid ◽  
Jianguo Wei ◽  
Md Qamruzzaman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetry Effects

The study's motivation is to gauge the nexus between economic policy uncertainty and financial innovation for the period 2004M1 to 2018M12 in BRIC nations. For establishing a long-run cointegration study applied Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and asymmetry effects of economic policy uncertainty investigated following nonlinear framework known as NARDL. Furthermore, directional causality is established by performing a non-granger causality test. Cointegration test results of Fpss, Wpss, and tBDM confirmed the long-run association between EPU and financial innovation. On the other hand, the Wald test results proved asymmetry effects furring from EPU to financial innovation both in the long-run and short-run. Referring to asymmetry effects that positive and negative shocks in financial innovation, the study revealed that negative linkage between shocks in EPU and financial innovation in the long-run but short-run effects are insignificant. Furthermore, financial innovation measured by R&D investment exhibits positive linked with shocks in EPU, implying that uncertainty induces innovation in the economy. Refers to directional causality estimation, the study revealed evidence supporting the feedback hypothesis between EPU and financial innovation in all sample countries.

scholarly journals The effectiveness of Vietnamese policies response to climate change through ARDL analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-52
Author(s):  
Le Hoang Nghiem ◽  
Dang Bac Hai ◽  
Tran Thi Diem Nga ◽  
Su Thi Oanh Hoa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Economic Factor ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Long Run

Being a highly vulnerable country due to climate change, Vietnam has issued various climate policies while trying to keep the pace of economic growth. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these policies by examining the effect of economic and energy factors in the efforts of controlling CO2 emissions. Approach by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis, the model of a linear regression between CO2 emissions and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) & sources of energy consumption has been developed from 1985 to 2018. The study indicates that the economic factor as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a possible significant element to mitigate the emission. In addition, sources of energy consumption have the important role of controlling CO2 emissions. In the long run, the consumption of non - renewable energy is a positive and significant effect on CO2 emissions while renewable energy is vice versa. These outcomes show the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and renewable energy consumption factors lead to the decrease of CO2 emissions in the long run for Vietnam, which implies the co-exist of economic growth and decarbonization.

scholarly journals Investigating the Relationship between Unemployment and Inflation in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (03) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charity I. Anoke I. Anoke ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study considered the impact of inflation on unemployment in Nigeria viz avis selected macroeconomic variables. The researcher adopted co integration, vector error correction model and VEC Granger causality test econometric procedure in the analysis of the data employed. The specific objectives of the study are; (i) to determine the extent to which inflation impact on unemployment in Nigeria within the period of study, (ii) to examine if government expenditure have any significant impact on unemployment in Nigeria within the period of study, (iii) to estimate the significant impact of foreign direct investment on unemployment in Nigeria within the period of study; (iv) to investigate the extent of direction of causality between unemployment and inflation in Nigeria within the period of study. The results of the research revealed long run relationship among estimated variables, VECM result showed a positive significant relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short run and long run, government expenditure and foreign direct investment maintained negative relationship with unemployment both in the short and long run. The VEC Granger causality test indicated causality among UNEM, INF and TGEX. The research recommended that (i) government should focus on policy and strategy that can attract foreign direct investment into the country, (ii) government should try to maintain low inflation rate through suitable monetary policy; (iii) government should encourage investment platforms and enabling environment for effective and efficient national output; and (iv) Government should consciously increase fiscal space for capital activities and projects that are capable of generating income, increase domestic and public spending, improve economic status and reduce unemployment. This paper concluded that the Philip’s curve hypothesis does not apply in Nigeria within the period of study as the result failed to establish an inverse relationship as postulated by A.W. Philips.

scholarly journals The impact of Indonesian oil price (CPI) and macroeconomics on investments in the manufacturing sector in Indonesia

F1000Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 338
Author(s):  
Handri Handri ◽  
Hendrati Dwi Mulyaningsih ◽  
Achmad Kemal Hidayat ◽  
Rudi Kurniawan ◽  
Ani Wahyu Rachmawati
Keyword(s):  
Energy Source ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Background: Indonesia consumes oil as the main energy source in the production process and as a result of the development of the manufacturing industry. Thus, investment in manufacturing stocks will be affected by oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic conditions. Changes in oil prices will affect the performance of the manufacturing sector which in turn affects manufacturing stock prices. This paper aims to examine the impact of Indonesia's oil price shocks and macroeconomic factors on stock price movements in the manufacturing sector. Methods: This study uses monthly data for the 2009-2016 period in the manufacturing sector, and 67 stocks were selected on the basis consistently available in the period of the research. The cointegration and causality technique was used in this paper; firstly we applied a unit-panel root test, Secondly, we performed a residual test to indicate whether there was cointegration among variables in the long run equilibrium, and short the short run, we used a Granger causality test. Results: The panel unit root test (both Shin and Fisher) and the Pedroni cointegration residual test show that the data is stationary at 1%  level of significance, thus all variables simultaneously achieve long-run equilibrium, and in the short run, the Granger causality test shows that there is one way direction causality Conclusions: For long-term investment in manufacturing stocks, investors must consider the exchange rate, as it is also as a determining factor in influencing the movement of manufacturing stock prices, inflation, and the production index. Meanwhile, weakening of the rupiah in the short run will also determine investment conditions due to the dependency on raw materials for production from foreign sources. The price of oil as an energy source in the manufacturing sector does not have a long-term relationship with other variables.

scholarly journals Does financial and agriculture sector development reduce unemployment rates? Evidence from Southern African countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (No. 5) ◽  
pp. 223-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gbolahan Olowu ◽  
Godwin Oluseye Olaseinde-Williams ◽  
Murad Bein
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Financial Depth ◽  
Short Run

The paper examines empirically the impacts of agricultural sector value added and financial development on unemployment, using yearly data from 1995–2015. Eleven developing Southern African Development Community countries were selected for the study. The empirical analysis was carried out using second-generation econometric methods. The regression results revealed that both agricultural value added and financial development are important determinants of unemployment within the region. The results specifically show that agricultural value added is negatively associated with unemployment in both the short and long-run, although the long-run effect is many times bigger than the short-run impact. The results also show that in the long-run, both financial depth and financial efficiency are negatively associated with unemployment. Interactions between agricultural value added financial development and unemployment were further tested via panel bootstrap causality tests. The causality test results revealed the existence of significant one-way causality from agricultural value added to unemployment and from financial depth to unemployment for the region. It also showed that causality varies across individual countries within the region with different conditions, indicating the heterogeneous nature of the countries that make up the regional bloc.<br />

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