scholarly journals Will COVID-19 Threaten the Survival of the Airline Industry?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 11666
Author(s):  
Xiao Xuan ◽  
Khalid Khan ◽  
Chi-Wei Su ◽  
Adnan Khurshid
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Airline Industry ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Air Cargo ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Relevant Research ◽  
Global Standards ◽  
The Government

The pandemic causes social distancing and lockdown, which impedes consumer confidence and contracts the economy. Hence, this study analyzes the corona (COVID-19) impact on the airline industry revenues (ALR) and forecast by the vector autoregression (VAR) method. The results indicate that gross domestic product (GDP) and air cargo are the best predictors of ALR. The forecasting outcomes explore if ALR will decline and expect to back to pre-COVID-19 in 2023. Our results resemble both the V-shaped and U-shaped, which suggests slow gradual recovery with longer lockdown and border disclosure. The government can restore confidence building by providing economic stimulus packages and can encourage the airline to return to travel. Furthermore, softening the passenger rules concerning the refund of unflown ticket, reducing taxes, and reducing overflight taxes, all reduce the costs. Similarly, the mutually recognized global standards are crucial for effective execution, and any temporary measures taken by the government should have a clear exit strategy. The study major limitation includes the lack of relevant research and data availability.

Dampak Penerapan Perbankan Syari’ah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara: Kajian Perbandingan Malaysia dan Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Hansen Rusliani
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Domestic Product

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak perbankan syari’ah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dan Malaysia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data primer (interview) dan data sekunder dalam bentuk bulanan yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia Bank Indonesia (SEKI-BI) dan Statistik Perbankan Syari’ah Bank Indonesia (SPS-BI) serta data dari Bank Negara Malaysia dan Departemen Statistik Malaysia dalam periode waktu kurun waktu 16 tahun, 2000 sampai dengan 2015. Observasi penelitian dilakukan di Indonesia dan Malaysia untuk memperkaya analisis. Penelitian ini menggunakan Vector Autoregression (VAR), Uji Kointegrasi serta dikombinasikan dengan Response Function (IRF) dan Decomposition (FEVD) untuk melihat interaksi antara faktor makro ekonomi dengan pembiayaan dalam jangka panjang. Adapun variabel yang digunakan adalah total pembiayan syari’ah (Total Syari’ah Financing) dan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) sebagai representasi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk tambahan variabel digunakan Consumer Price Index (CPI) sebagai representasi tingkat inflasi. Hipotesis penelitian yaitu terdapat pertumbuhan ekonomi setiap tahunnya dikedua negara tersebut pasca krisis moneter.

Anticipating revisions in the transportation services index

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Tucker S. McElroy ◽  
Anindya Roy ◽  
James Livsey ◽  
Theresa Firestine ◽  
Ken Notis
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Release Date ◽  
Transportation Services ◽  
Publication Delay ◽  
Source Data ◽  
Out Of Sample

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) lags two months from its release date due to source data availability, and it is desirable to publish a preliminary TSI that is advanced two months ahead. We model and forecast TSI with a co-integrated Vector Autoregression, also considering two explanatory series that do not have publication delay. Thus we are able to produce forecasts and nowcasts of the index, and we demonstrate that – during normal economic conditions – out-of-sample performance is within the scope expected by the forecast confidence intervals. We also examine the performance of the models at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the large forecast errors at this regime change are beyond the bounds indicated by our model. The practical ramifications of this methodology is discussed.

scholarly journals Dynamic Analysis of Structural Shifts of Fiscal Revenue in Nigeria, 1999-2016

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 96
Author(s):  
Mustapha A. Akinkunmi
Keyword(s):  
Data Availability ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Excise Duty ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government

The oil sector that eased the financial constraint of Nigerian government in the 1970s is presently acting as the source of financial constraints to the country due to a continuous decline in government revenue, arising from the recent drastic fall in world crude oil prices. This calls for the government to diversify its revenue base through improving taxation. This study examined the influence of economic performance on the government revenue as well as the various sources of tax revenues in Nigeria. Monthly data spanning 1999 to 2016 were utilized to estimate vector error correction models (VECM) for five sources of government tax revenues based on data availability. Empirical results revealed that there is a significant relationship between real GDP and real company income tax revenues, and between real GDP and real excise duty revenues in the long run. However, in the short run, the one-year lag of tax revenue varieties poses a significant influence on the various sources of tax revenues.

scholarly journals Economic policy and confidence of economic agents – a causal relationship?

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 471-484
Author(s):  
Silvo Dajčman
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to study whether innovations in monetary and fiscal policy are a leading indicator of future business and consumer confidence and reverse applying the panel Granger causality analysis to two periods in the history of the euro area: before and after the start of the Great Recession. The results show that Granger causality interaction between the confidence of economic agents and the stance of monetary policy (measured by the shadow rate) is stronger than between the former and the fiscal policy instruments. The European Central Bank (ECB) shadow rate innovations Granger caused business and consumer confidence in both periods, but also indicators of confidence Granger caused the shadow rate. No such feedback could be established between two fiscal policy instruments (government expenditure and revenue growth) and the indicators of confidence. Government spending and revenues Granger caused business confidence in the first subperiod, but not in the second subperiod when the causality reversed. The government revenues Granger caused consumer confidence in the first subperiod, while government expenditures in the second subperiod. Consumer confidence Granger caused government spending in the first subperiod.

scholarly journals PENYALAH GUNAAN NAZA (Narkotika dan Zat aditif lainnya) OLEH INSAN PENERBANGAN DAN ANCAMAN TERHADAP KESELAMATAN PENERBANGAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Mochammad Fatchoelqorib ◽  
Bekti Setiadi
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Airline Industry ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Aviation Industry ◽  
Flight Safety ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Flight Crew ◽  
The Government ◽  
Operational Aspects

Since the Government of Indonesia made deregulation in several aspect of aviation industry early of this century, the development of airline industry shows thremendestly. There are many new Low Cost Air Carrier “growing up like mushrum in the rainy season”. Some of side effect of this fast growing are concerning with flight safety, especialy in maintenance, human resources and operational aspects. Flight Safety is mandatory in all aspect of aviation industry, there is no room for relaxation or dispensation regarding safety. Air crew especialy Pilot has huges responsibility in Flight Safety during flight, their healthy condition and eligibility of technical of flight should be maintain at all times. Missuse of narcotic will jeoperdize both healthy and ability in their profesional perform.  In this journal we will focus on human resources aspect regarding legislation of missuse of narcotic among flight crew and implementation of safety management of aviation personel.

The Value of Implicit Political Connections

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
David Broadstock ◽  
Xiaoqi Chen ◽  
C. S. Agnes Cheng ◽  
Wenli Huang
Keyword(s):  
Work Experience ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Top Management Team ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Political Connections ◽  
The Political ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Relations ◽  
The Government

ABSTRACT We investigate whether the aggregated political relations of a firm's top management team (TMT) add value to the firm's performance. We distinguish between the political relations that arise from TMT's own work experience, which are termed direct political connections (DPC), and the relations that TMT develops from working for the same institution with the government officials, which are termed implicit political connections (IPC). We find that IPC are positively associated with firm performance and that they often have a stronger effect than DPC do. We also find that the effect of IPC on firm value is stronger in SOEs and in firms located in under-developed provinces. Moreover, we find that after the anti-corruption campaign, the effect of DPC decreases but the effect of IPC does not significantly change. Overall, our results suggest the importance of investigating a firm's aggregated political connections, especially its IPC. JEL Classifications: G32; D72; J33; L33. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

Success and Failure in Building Electronic Infrastructures in the Air Cargo Industry

2011 ◽  
pp. 56-68
Author(s):  
Ellen Christiaanse ◽  
Jan Damsgaard
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Information Systems ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Airline Industry ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Air Cargo ◽  
Design And Implementation ◽  
Hong Kong Sar ◽  
Global Systems ◽  
Community Systems

Reasons behind the failure and success of large-scale information systems projects continue to puzzle everyone involved in the design and implementation of IT. In particular in the airline industry very successful (passenger reservation) systems have been built which have totally changed the competitive arena of the industry. On the cargo side, however, attempts to implement large-scale community systems have largely failed across the globe. Air cargo parties are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of IT and they understand the value that IOS could provide for the total value chain performance. However, whereas in other sectors IOSs have been very successful, there are only fragmented examples of successful global systems in the air cargo community, and the penetration of IOS in the air cargo industry is by no means pervasive. This case describes the genesis and evolution of two IOSs in the air cargo community and identifies plausible explanations that lead one to be a success and one to be a failure. The two examples are drawn from Europe and from Hong Kong SAR. The case clearly demonstrates that it was the complex, institutional and technical choices made by the initiators of the system in terms of their competitive implications that were the main causes for the systems’ fate. The case thus concludes that it was the institutional factors involved in the relationships of the stakeholders that led to the opposite manifestations of the two initiatives, and that such factors should be taken into account when designing and implementing large-scale information systems.

“Ruled Britannia”: Metaphorical Construction of the EU as Enemy in UKIP Campaign Posters

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-209
Author(s):  
Andrew S. Ross ◽  
Aditi Bhatia
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Discursive Construction ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
The Past ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

The sweeping tide of populism across the globe has given rise to isolationist sentiments that call for the closing of national borders and a return to nativist roots. This has been most evident in Britain in terms of the controversial vote to exit the European Union (EU) during the 2016 referendum (to Leave or Remain) and more recently with the lead up to a general election and mounting pressure on the government to implement an exit strategy. The most vocal proponent of the “leave” movement was the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), reframing the debate on EU membership in terms of invasion and oppression. This paper focuses on precisely this discursive construction of the EU by analyzing UKIP campaign posters through application of Bhatia’s Discourse of Illusion framework on three levels: historicity (use of the past to justify the present or predict the future), linguistic and semiotic action (subjective conceptualizations of reality made apparent through metaphorical rhetoric), and degree of social impact (emergence of delineating categories through ideological narrative).

Categorisation of Telecom Circles in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-51
Author(s):  
Debashis Saha
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Revenue Sharing ◽  
Mobile Telephony ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Extant Literature ◽  
Exact Procedure ◽  
Pertinent Question ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Diffusion

Ever since mobile has revolutionized the telecom scenario in India, experts often ask a pertinent question: is the old assignment of twenty-two telecom circles into four categories valid even now? It has become important in the light of variable rates of revenue sharing in different circles as per the policy of the Government of India (GoI). The extant literature is silent on the exact procedure followed by the GoI in classifying the circles, apart from mentioning the rationale of decreasing attractiveness. So we revisit the categorization process afresh from two perspectives: gross domestic product (GDP) and diffusion of mobile telephony. The GDP based clustering of the circles is quite straightforward. However, for the mobile diffusion based method, we take help of a dynamic model based on revenue potential. Interestingly, both the methods generate results, which are almost similar to the existing classification done by the GoI way back in 1999. Thus, our exercise provides a big relief to the policy-makers, thereby pre-empting the demands for immediate relook at the categorization.

scholarly journals Government Spending and Non-Oil Economic Growth in the UAE

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-93
Author(s):  
Carole Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The present paper studies empirically the relationship between government spending and non-oil economic growth in the UAE for the last four decades by using the vector autoregression (VAR) approach. The findings of the study suggest that the implementation of expansionary policy, through the intensification of current and development public expenditures, induces an increase in the non-oil economic growth during the subsequent periods of the government spending shock. Thus, the implementation of expansionary government spending stimulates the UAE economy, especially during recession periods. The study suggests that policymakers should concentrate their spending on the right projects, as well as on research and development. Moreover, they should channel their transfers and subsidies to the productive sectors, and they should ensure that higher productivity in public institutions is in conjunction with the rise in wages and salaries to achieve sustainable economic growth.

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