scholarly journals Behavioral Implications in COVID-19 Spread and Vaccinations

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 72
Author(s):  
Karim Chichakly

COVID-19 vaccinations have been administered quickly in the USA. However, a surprisingly large number of Americans are unwilling to get vaccinated. Without enough people getting vaccinated, the pandemic will not end. The longer the pandemic persists, the more opportunities exist for more virulent strains to emerge. This model looks at the effects of people’s behavior in containing and ending the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. Human behavior adds several feedback loops to the standard SEIR model. Comparisons are made between cases with and without behavior loops, with reduced adherence to the recommended or mandated masks and social distancing, with and without the vaccine, and the effects of an early mask mandate termination. The results suggest human behavior must be accounted for in epidemiology models and that removing masks before enough vaccine are administered not only puts those vaccinated at risk, but allows the disease to readily spread again.

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. e238216
Author(s):  
Harry Ross Powers ◽  
Jared R Nelson ◽  
Salvador Alvarez ◽  
Julio C Mendez

Although uncommon, Brucella infection can occur outside the areas of high endemicity, such as the USA. In the southern USA, hunters of wild swine are at risk for brucellosis. We present a case of a patient with fever, headache and constitutional symptoms that were ongoing for 11 months. He was diagnosed with neurobrucellosis. The patient was treated successfully with intravenous ceftriaxone, oral doxycycline and oral rifampin therapy. He had persistent neurological sequelae after completing treatment. This case illustrates the high index of suspicion needed to diagnose neurobrucellosis in a non-endemic country because initial symptoms can be subtle. The disease can be treated successfully, but long-lasting neurological sequelae are common.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 238-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marshall W. Meyer

Abstract Research Question What happened to US traffic safety during the first US COVID-19 lockdown, and why was the pattern the opposite of that observed in previous sudden declines of traffic volume? Data National and local statistics on US traffic volume, traffic fatalities, injury accidents, speeding violations, running of stop signs, and other indicators of vehicular driving behavior, both in 2020 and in previous US economic recessions affecting the volume of road traffic. Methods Comparative analysis of the similarities and differences between the data for the COVID-19 lockdown in parts of the USA in March 2020 and similar data for the 2008–2009 global economic crisis, as well as other US cases of major reductions in traffic volume. Findings The volume of traffic contracted sharply once a COVID-19 national emergency was declared and most states issued stay-at-home orders, but motor vehicle fatality rates, injury accidents, and speeding violations went up, and remained elevated even as traffic began returning toward normal. This pattern does not fit post-World War II recessions where fatality rates declined with the volume of traffic nor does the 2020 pattern match the pattern during World War II when traffic dropped substantially with little change in motor vehicle fatality rates. Conclusions The findings are consistent with a theory of social distancing on highways undermining compliance with social norms, a social cost of COVID which, if not corrected, poses potential long-term increases in non-compliance and dangerous driving.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoav Kolumbus ◽  
Noam Nisan

AbstractWe study the effectiveness of tracking and testing policies for suppressing epidemic outbreaks. We evaluate the performance of tracking-based intervention methods on a network SEIR model, which we augment with an additional parameter to model pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, and study the effectiveness of these methods in combination with or as an alternative to quarantine and global lockdown policies. Our focus is on the basic trade-off between human-lives lost and economic costs, and on how this trade-off changes under different quarantine, lockdown, tracking, and testing policies. Our main findings are as follows: (1) Tests combined with patient quarantines reduce both economic costs and mortality, however, an extensive-scale testing capacity is required to achieve a significant improvement. (2) Tracking significantly reduces both economic costs and mortality. (3) Tracking combined with a moderate testing capacity can achieve containment without lockdowns. (4) In the presence of a flow of new incoming infections, dynamic “On–Off” lockdowns are more efficient than fixed lockdowns. In this setting as well, tracking strictly improves efficiency. The results show the extreme usefulness of policies that combine tracking and testing for reducing mortality and economic costs, and their potential to contain outbreaks without imposing any social distancing restrictions. This highlights the difficult social question of trading-off these gains against patient privacy, which is inevitably infringed by tracking.


2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Christson Adedoyin ◽  
Michael E. Sherr ◽  
Samuel E. Oladipo ◽  
Yemisi Bolade-Ogunfodun

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benn Sartorius ◽  
Andrew Lawson ◽  
Rachel L. Pullan

Abstract Background: COVID-19 caseloads in England appear have passed through a first peak, with evidence of an emerging second wave. To ensure continued response to the epidemic is most effective, it is imperative to better understand both retrospectively and prospectively the geographical evolution of COVID-19 caseloads and deaths, identify localised areas in space-time at significantly higher risk, quantify the impact of changes in localised population mobility (or movement) on caseloads, identify localised risk factors for increased mortality and project the likely course of the epidemic at small-area resolution in coming weeks.Methods: We applied a Bayesian space–time SEIR model to assess the spatiotemporal variability of COVID-19 caseloads (transmission) and deaths at small-area scale in England (Middle Layer Super Output Area [MSOA], 6791 units) and by week (using observed data from week 5 to 34), including key determinants, the modelled transmission dynamics and spatial-temporal random effects. We also estimate the number of cases and deaths at small-area resolution with uncertainty projected forward in time by MSOA (up to week 51 of 2020), the impact mobility reductions (and subsequent easing) have had on COVID-19 caseloads and quantify the impact of key socio-demographic risk factors on COVID-19 related mortality risk by MSOA.Results: Reductions in population mobility due the course of the first lockdown had a significant impact on the reduction of COVID-19 caseloads across England, however local authorities have had a varied rate of reduction in population movement which our model suggest has substantially impacted the geographic heterogeneity in caseloads at small-area scale. The steady gain in population mobility, observed from late April, appears to have contributed to a slowdown in caseload reductions towards late June and subsequent steady increase signalling the start of the second wave. MSOA with higher proportions of elderly (70+ years of age) and elderly living in deprivation, both with very distinct geographic distributions, have a significantly elevated COVID-19 mortality rates.Conclusions: While non-pharmaceutical interventions (that is, reductions in population mobility and social distancing) had a profound impact on the trajectory of the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in England, increased population mobility appears to have contributed to the current increase signalling the start of the second wave. A number of contiguous small-areas appear to be at a significant elevated risk of high COVID-19 transmission, many of which are also at increased risk for higher mortality rates. A geographically staggered re-introduction of intensified social distancing measures is advised and limited cross MSOA movement if the magnitude and geographic extent of the second wave is to be reduced.


1993 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-484 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles D. Brockett

Many people [in Guatemala] did begin to join the guerrillas, while many more were sympathetic or quietly supportive. The guerrillas are the only remaining source of defense left to a community or family. I know of villages that experienced actual massacres against innocent campesinos, who were not even members of coops. The survivors of these massacres would often turn to the guerrillas. With all their anger about the murders of their kin and neighbors, there was nowhere else to turn.—quoted in S. Davis and J. Hodson, Witnesses to Political Violence in GuatemalaCentral american events of recent decades show human behavior at both its most courageous and its most barbaric. The opposing phenomena of popular mobilization and state terrorism pose some of the most profound questions that can be asked by social science. How can we explain the willingness of political elites and their agents to slay thousands—tens of thousands—of their fellow human beings, even when their victims are unarmed? Conversely, how do we account for ordinary people undertaking collective action under circumstances so dangerous that even their lives are at risk?


BMC Medicine ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Dighe ◽  
Lorenzo Cattarino ◽  
Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg ◽  
Janetta Skarp ◽  
Natsuko Imai ◽  
...  

Abstract Background After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their “test, trace, isolate” strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea’s outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere. Methods We systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. Results We estimated that after the initial rapid growth in cases, Rt dropped below one in early April before increasing to a maximum of 1.94 (95%CrI, 1.64–2.27) in May following outbreaks in Seoul Metropolitan Region. By mid-June, Rt was back below one where it remained until the end of our study (July 13th). Despite less stringent “lockdown” measures, strong social distancing measures were implemented in high-incidence areas and studies measured a considerable national decrease in movement in late February. Testing the capacity was swiftly increased, and protocols were in place to isolate suspected and confirmed cases quickly; however, we could not estimate the delay to isolation using our data. Accounting for just 10% of cases, individual case-based contact tracing picked up a relatively minor proportion of total cases, with cluster investigations accounting for 66%. Conclusions Whilst early adoption of testing and contact tracing is likely to be important for South Korea’s successful outbreak control, other factors including regional implementation of strong social distancing measures likely also contributed. The high volume of testing and the low number of deaths suggest that South Korea experienced a small epidemic relative to other countries. Caution is needed in attempting to replicate the South Korean response in populations with larger more geographically widespread epidemics where finding, testing, and isolating cases that are linked to clusters may be more difficult.


2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
M. Taylor Rhodes ◽  
Fred Kuchler

Abstract Objective: The number of states in the USA that allows sales of raw milk for human consumption has been trending upwards and reached thirty-eight in 2016. These legislative changes could encourage raw milk consumption. The current study examined the determinants of weekly raw milk use by at-home meal preparers in the USA. Design: Using the 2014–2016 American Time Use Survey – Eating and Health Module, multivariate logit regressions and average marginal associations were estimated to examine how at-home meal preparer characteristics, time use and shopping choices, underlying health and the presence of at-risk individuals in households and raw milk legalisation status are associated with the probability an at-home meal preparer consumed or served raw milk during an average week. Setting: USA. Participants: At-home meal preparers aged 18 years and above. Results: Estimated average marginal associations suggested younger at-home meal preparers, male at-home meal preparers, larger sized households and households located in non-metropolitan areas were more likely to use raw milk during an average week. Married households and households with a person aged 62 years or above were less likely to use raw milk. Variables indicating health characteristics of at-home meal preparers or the presence of an at-risk individual in the household were not statistically significant. Conclusions: There are many government-sponsored information resources about the risks of raw milk currently available. Additional education may be needed to prevent illnesses from raw milk.


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