scholarly journals Hydrologic Risk Assessment of Future Extreme Drought in South Korea Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2052 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim ◽  
Yoo ◽  
Chung ◽  
Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Bivariate Frequency Analysis

Recently, climate change has increased the frequency of extreme weather events. In South Korea, extreme droughts are frequent and cause serious damage. To identify the risk of extreme drought, we need to calculate the hydrologic risk using probabilistic analysis methods. In particular, future hydrologic risk of extreme drought should be compared to that of the control period. Therefore, this study quantitatively assessed the future hydrologic risk of extreme drought in South Korea according to climate change scenarios based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. A threshold level method was applied to observation-based rainfall data and climate change scenario-based future rainfall data to identify drought events and extract drought characteristics. A bivariate frequency analysis was then performed to estimate the return period considering both duration and severity. The estimated return periods were used to calculate and compare hydrologic risks between the control period and the future. Results indicate that the average duration of drought events for the future was similar with that for the control period, however, the average severity increased in most future scenarios. In addition, there was decreased risk of maximum drought events in the Yeongsan River basin in the future, while there was increased risk in the Nakdong River basin. The median of risk of extreme drought in the future was calculated to be larger than that of the maximum drought in the control period.

scholarly journals Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Future Groundwater-Level Behavior Using SWAT Groundwater-Consumption Function in Geum River Basin of South Korea

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 949 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiwan Lee ◽  
Chunggil Jung ◽  
Sehoon Kim ◽  
Seongjoon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Ground Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
The Future ◽  
And Storage

This study was to evaluate the groundwater-level behavior in Geum River Basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea with HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios and future groundwater use data using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Before evaluating future groundwater behavior, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using the daily inflows and storage of two dams (DCD and YDD) in the basin for 11 years (2005–2015), the daily groundwater-level observation data at five locations (JSJS, OCCS, BEMR, CASS, and BYBY), and the daily inflow and storage of three weir locations (SJW, GJW, and BJW) for three years and five months (August 2012 to December 2015). The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) of two dam inflows was 0.55–0.70 and 0.67–0.75. For the inflows of the three weirs, NSE was 0.57–0.77 and R2 was 0.62–0.81. The average R2 value for the groundwater levels of the five locations ranged from 0.53 to 0.61. After verifying the SWAT for hydrologic components, we evaluated the behavior of future groundwater levels by future climate change scenarios and estimated future ground water use by Korean water vision 2020 based on ground water use monitoring data. The future groundwater-level decreased by −13.0, −5.0, and −9.0 cm at three upstream locations (JSJS, OCCS, and BEMR) among the five groundwater-level observation locations and increased by +3.0 and +1.0 cm at two downstream locations (CASS and BYBY). The future groundwater level was directly affected by the groundwater recharge, which was dependent on the seasonal and spatial precipitations in the basin.

Incorporating climate change adaptation strategies in urban water supply planning: the case of central Chile

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 357-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Bonelli ◽  
Sebastián Vicuña ◽  
Francisco J. Meza ◽  
Jorge Gironás ◽  
Jonathan Barton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Water System ◽  
Water Supply Systems ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Central Chile

Water management systems have been typically designed and operated under the assumption of stationarity. This assumption may no longer be valid under climate change scenarios. Water availability may change dramatically at some locations due mainly to possible impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation over streamflow volume and seasonality, adding pressure to water supply systems. It has been shown that snowmelt-dominated basins are particularly sensitive to such changes. Hence, human settlements and economic activities developed in such areas are particularly vulnerable. The Maipo river basin in Central Chile – where more than 6 million people live – is one of these areas. We used a calibrated water resources model of the Maipo river basin, in order to propose a general framework to evaluate adaptation options at the urban level. When comparing a mid-21st century period to a historic control period, results for three selected performance metrics showed a decrease in water system performance. Adaptation measures were evaluated in their capacity to maintain current water security standards. Two alternatives stand as highly effective options to this end: water rights purchases and improvements in water use efficiency. The political and economic costs of implementing these options, which could deem them unviable, are not considered here but are worthy of further research.

scholarly journals Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedram Mahdavi ◽  
Hossein Ghorbanizadeh Kharazi ◽  
Hossein Eslami ◽  
Narges Zohrabi ◽  
Majid Razaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Global warming affected by human activities causes changes in the regime of rivers. Rivers are one of the most vital sources that supply fresh water. Therefore, management, planning, and proper use of rivers will be crucial for future climate change conditions. This study investigated the monitoring of hydrological drought in a future period to examine the impact of climate change on the discharging flow of the Zard River basin in Iran. Zard River is an important supplier of fresh and agricultural water in a vast area of Khuzestan province in Iran. A continuous rainfall-runoff model based on Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) algorithm was applied to simulate the discharge flow under 10 scenarios (obtained from LARS-WG.6 software) of future climate change. Then, the Stream-flow Drought Index (SDI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated for each climate change scenario for the future period (2041–2060). The results of the meteorological drought assessment showed that near normal and moderate droughts had higher proportions among other drought conditions. Moreover, the hydrological drought assessment showed the occurrence of two new droughts (severe and extreme) conditions for the future period (2041–2060) that has never happened in the past (1997–2016).

scholarly journals Simulation of the Potential Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Streamflow in the Vakhsh River Basin in Central Asia under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1426
Author(s):  
Aminjon Gulakhmadov ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Nekruz Gulahmadov ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Muhammad Naveed Anjum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
The Future

Millions of people in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan are dependent on the freshwater supply of the Vakhsh River system. Sustainable management of the water resources of the Vakhsh River Basin (VRB) requires comprehensive assessment regarding future climate change and its implications for streamflow. In this study, we assessed the potential impacts of projected climate change scenarios on the streamflow in the VRB for two future periods (2022–2060 and 2061–2099). The probable changes in the regional climate system were assessed using the outputs of five global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The probable streamflow was simulated using a semi-distributed hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Evidence of a significant increase in the annual average temperature by the end of the 21st century was found, ranging from 2.25 to 4.40 °C under RCP4.5 and from 4.40 to 6.60 °C under RCP8.5. The results of three GCMs indicated a decreasing tendency of annual average precipitation (from −1.7% to −16.0% under RCP4.5 and from −3.4% to −29.8% under RCP8.5). Under RCP8.5, two GCMs indicated an increase (from 2.3% to 5.3%) in the average annual precipitation by the end of 2099. The simulated results of the hydrological model reported an increasing tendency of average annual streamflow, from 17.5% to 52.3% under both RCPs, by the end of 2099. A shift in the peak flow month was also found, i.e., from July to June, under both RCPs. It is expected that in the future, median and high flows might increase, whereas low flow might decrease by the end of 2099. It is concluded that the future seasonal streamflow in the VRB are highly uncertain due to the probable alterations in temperature and precipitation. The findings of the present study could be useful for understanding the future hydrological behavior of the Vakhsh River, for the planning of sustainable regional irrigation systems in the downstream countries, i.e., Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and for the construction of hydropower plants in the upstream countries.

scholarly journals Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Spread of Mega-Drought: Setting Forecast and Warning Criteria

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 99-106
Author(s):  
Chan Wook Lee ◽  
Gihoon Moon ◽  
Sungjin Hong ◽  
Do Guen Yoo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Basic Data ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The Future ◽  
Warning Criteria ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Narrow Area ◽  
Temporal Spread

In South Korea, drought disasters frequently occur due to the narrow area of the river basin and the concentration of rainfall in summer. In addition, climate change caused extreme droughts in 2015, levels that had never been experienced before. Thus, more severe droughts are expected in the future. To date, however, no countermeasures, such as preliminary warning standards for severe drought, have been prepared. In this study, we analyzed the degree of spatio-temporal spread of mega-drought entry situations and prepared the criteria for warnings based on the results. The results of the study can be used as basic data to prepare standards for responding to possible extreme droughts in the future.

scholarly journals An Analysis on the Characteristics of the Future Upper Wind over South Korea Using Climate Change Scenarios

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 273-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seonae Kim ◽  
◽  
Maeng-Ki Kim ◽  
Jongchul Park ◽  
Dong-Ho Jang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Evaluation of Future Flood Risk According to RCP Scenarios Using a Regional Flood Frequency Analysis for Ungauged Watersheds

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nam Won Kim ◽  
Jin-Young Lee ◽  
Dong-Hyeok Park ◽  
Tae-Woong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Regional Frequency Analysis ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ungauged Watersheds

According to the accepted climate change scenarios, the future rainfall in the Korean peninsula is expected to increase by 3–10%. The expected increase in rainfall leads to an increase of runoff that is directly linked to the stability of existing and newly installed hydraulic structures. It is necessary to accurately estimate the future frequency and severity of floods, considering increasing rainfall according to different climate change scenarios. After collecting observed flood data over twenty years in 12 watersheds, we developed a regional frequency analysis (RFA) for ungauged watersheds by adjusting flood quantiles calculated by a design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) using natural flow data as an index flood. The proposed RFA was applied to estimate design floods and flood risks in 113 medium-sized basins in South Korea according to representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Regarding the future of the Korean peninsula, compared with the present, the flood risks were expected to increase by 24.85% and 20.28% on average for the RCP 8.5 and 4.5 scenarios, respectively.

scholarly journals Change in Extreme Precipitation over North Korea Using Multiple Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minsung Kwon ◽  
Jang Sung ◽  
Jaehyun Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
North And South

Although the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on the global scale are expected to change because of changes in the hydrological cycle under climate change, little quantitative assessment of future extreme precipitation in North Korea has been attempted. Therefore, this study projected the changes in extreme precipitation in North Korea by applying downscaling to GCMs forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, preserving the long-term trend of climate change projection. Employing climate change scenario ensembles of RCP8.5, the precipitation level of the 20-year return period in the reference period of 1980–2005 increased to 21.1 years for the future period 2011–2040, decreased to 16.2 years for 2041–2070, and decreased to 8.8 years for 2071–2100. Extreme precipitation was expected to occur often in the future. In addition, an increase in extreme precipitation at the border of North and South Korea is expected, and it is concluded that a joint response for the Imjin River, a river shared by North and South Korea, is needed.

scholarly journals Hydrological drought risk recurrence under climate change in the karst area of Northwestern Algeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 164-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Senna Bouabdelli ◽  
Mohamed Meddi ◽  
Ayoub Zeroual ◽  
Ramdane Alkama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Karst Area ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Bivariate Frequency Analysis

Abstract This study aims to estimate hydrological drought risk using probabilistic analysis of bivariate drought characteristics to assess both past and future drought severity and duration in three basins located in the widest karst massif of northern Algeria. The procedures entail: (1) identification of extent of meteorological drought that could trigger corresponding hydrological drought through their characteristics; (2) assessment of future risk of extreme drought according to two emission scenarios of the representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5 and 8.5); and (3) estimation of drought return periods using bivariate frequency analysis and investigation of their future change rates under climate change. Hydrological droughts were computed by using the bias-corrected future climate projections from nine global climate models downscaled using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate model (RCA4), and GR2M hydrological model. The analysis revealed a connection between meteorological and hydrological drought occurrences and the response time depended on the memory effect of the considered basin. We also found strong consensus between past drought event return periods, determined by bivariate frequency analysis, and those determined by climate models under RCP8.5 scenario. Finally, in regards to drought return periods (10, 50 and 100 years), the risk of extreme drought recurrence in the future has been projected to be larger than the reference period.

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