scholarly journals Assessment of PERSIANN-CCS, PERSIANN-CDR, SM2RAIN-ASCAT, and CHIRPS-2.0 Rainfall Products over a Semi-Arid Subtropical Climatic Region

Water ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Muhammad Naveed Anjum ◽  
Muhammad Irfan ◽  
Muhammad Waseem ◽  
Megersa Kebede Leta ◽  
Usama Muhammad Niazi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Punjab Province ◽  
Critical Success Index ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Better Than

This study compares the performance of four satellite-based rainfall products (SRPs) (PERSIANN-CCS, PERSIANN-CDR, SM2RAIN-ASCAT, and CHIRPS-2.0) in a semi-arid subtropical region. As a case study, Punjab Province of Pakistan was considered for this assessment. Using observations from in-situ meteorological stations, the uncertainty in daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall estimates of SRPs at pixel and regional scales during 2010–2018 were examined. Several evaluation indices (Correlation Coefficient (CC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Bias, and relative Bias (rBias), as well as categorical indices (Probability of Detection (POD), Critical Success Index (CSI), and False Alarm Ration (FAR)) were used to assess the performance of the SRPs. The following findings were found: (1) CHIRPS-2.0 and SM2RAIN-ASCAT products were capable of tracking the spatiotemporal variability of observed rainfall, (2) all SRPs had higher overall performances in the northwestern parts of the province than the other parts, (3) all SRP estimates were in better agreement with ground-based monthly observations than daily records, and (4) on the seasonal scale, CHIRPS-2.0 and SM2RAIN-ASCAT were better than PERSIANN-CCS and PERSIANN. In all seasons, CHIRPS-2.0 and SM2RAIN-ASCAT outperformed PERSIANN-CCS and PERSIANN-CDR. Based on our findings, we recommend that hydrometeorological investigations in Pakistan’s Punjab Province employ monthly estimates of CHIRPS-2.0 and SM2RAIN-ASCAT products.

scholarly journals Assessment of IMERG-V06, TRMM-3B42V7, SM2RAIN-ASCAT, and PERSIANN-CDR Precipitation Products over the Hindu Kush Mountains of Pakistan, South Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 3871
Author(s):  
Ali Hamza ◽  
Muhammad Naveed Anjum ◽  
Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud Cheema ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Arslan Afzal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Critical Success Index ◽  
Precipitation Events ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Daily Time

In this study, the performances of four satellite-based precipitation products (IMERG-V06 Final-Run, TRMM-3B42V7, SM2Rain-ASCAT, and PERSIANN-CDR) were assessed with reference to the measurements of in-situ gauges at daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales from 2010 to 2017, over the Hindu Kush Mountains of Pakistan. The products were evaluated over the entire domain and at point-to-pixel scales. Different evaluation indices (Correlation Coefficient (CC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Bias, and relative Bias (rBias)) and categorical indices (False Alarm Ration (FAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), Success Ratio (SR), and Probability of Detection (POD)) were used to assess the performances of the products considered in this study. Our results indicated the following. (1) IMERG-V06 and PERSIANN capably tracked the spatio-temporal variation of precipitation over the studied region. (2) All satellite-based products were in better agreement with the reference data on the monthly scales than on daily time scales. (3) On seasonal scale, the precipitation detection skills of IMERG-V06 and PERSIANN-CDR were better than those of SM2Rain-ASCAT and TRMM-3B42V7. In all seasons, overall performance of IMERG-V06 and PERSIANN-CDR was better than TRMM-3B42V7 and SM2Rain-ASCAT. (4) However, all products were uncertain in detecting light and moderate precipitation events. Consequently, we recommend the use of IMERG-V06 and PERSIANN-CDR products for subsequent hydro-meteorological studies in the Hindu Kush range.

scholarly journals Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Warning Based on Model Output of Soil Moisture: Case Study Wernersbach, Germany

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1061
Author(s):  
Thanh Thi Luong ◽  
Judith Pöschmann ◽  
Rico Kronenberg ◽  
Christian Bernhofer
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Rainfall Threshold ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Critical Discharge ◽  
Critical Success Index

Convective rainfall can cause dangerous flash floods within less than six hours. Thus, simple approaches are required for issuing quick warnings. The flash flood guidance (FFG) approach pre-calculates rainfall levels (thresholds) potentially causing critical water levels for a specific catchment. Afterwards, only rainfall and soil moisture information are required to issue warnings. This study applied the principle of FFG to the Wernersbach Catchment (Germany) with excellent data coverage using the BROOK90 water budget model. The rainfall thresholds were determined for durations of 1 to 24 h, by running BROOK90 in “inverse” mode, identifying rainfall values for each duration that led to exceedance of critical discharge (fixed value). After calibrating the model based on its runoff, we ran it in hourly mode with four precipitation types and various levels of initial soil moisture for the period 1996–2010. The rainfall threshold curves showed a very high probability of detection (POD) of 91% for the 40 extracted flash flood events in the study period, however, the false alarm rate (FAR) of 56% and the critical success index (CSI) of 42% should be improved in further studies. The proposed adjusted FFG approach has the potential to provide reliable support in flash flood forecasting.

scholarly journals A comparison between high-resolution satellite precipitation estimates and gauge measured data: case study of Gorganrood basin, Iran

2018 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 236-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donya Dezfooli ◽  
Banafsheh Abdollahi ◽  
Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari ◽  
Kumars Ebrahimi
Keyword(s):  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Seasonal Basis ◽  
Precipitation Gauge ◽  
Critical Success Index ◽  
Trmm 3B42

Abstract The aim of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of the precipitation data gathered from satellites including PERSIANN, TRMM-3B42V7, TRMM-3B42RTV7, and CMORPH, over Gorganrood basin, Iran. The data collected from these satellites (2003–2007) were then compared with precipitation gauge observations at six stations, namely, Tamar, Ramiyan, Bahlakeh-Dashli, Sadegorgan, Fazel-Abad, and Ghaffar-Haji. To compare these two groups, mean absolute error (MAE), bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and Pearson correlation coefficient criteria were calculated on daily, monthly, and seasonal basis. Furthermore, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and critical success index (CSI) were calculated for these datasets. Results indicate that, on a monthly scale, the highest correlation between observed and satellite-gathered data calculated is 0.404 for TRMM-3B42 at Bahlakeh-Dashli station. At a seasonal scale, the highest correlation is calculated for winter data and using PERSIANN data, while for the other seasons, TRMM-3B42 data showed the best correlation with observed data. The high values of RMSE and MAE for winter data showed that the satellites provided poor estimations at this season. The best and the worst values of RMSE for studied satellites belonged to Sadegorgan and Ramiyan stations, respectively. Furthermore, the PERSIANN gains a better CSI and POD while TRMM-3B42V7 showed a better FAR.

scholarly journals Spatial Pattern of Precipitation in GPM-Era Satellite Products against Rain Gauge Measurements over Nepal

Jalawaayu ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-56
Author(s):  
Bharat Badayar Joshi ◽  
Munawar Ali ◽  
Dibit Aryal ◽  
Laxman Paneru ◽  
Bhaskar Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
High Elevation ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Critical Success Index ◽  
Precipitation Events ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Better Than

Precipitation in a mountainous region is highly variable due to the complex terrain. Satellite-based precipitation estimates are potential alternatives to gauge measurements in these regions, as these typical measurements are not available or are scarce in high elevation areas. However, the accuracy of these gridded precipitation datasets need to be addressed before further usage. In this study, an evaluation of the spatial precipitation pattern in satellite-based precipitation products is provided, including satellite-only (Integrated Multi satellite Retrievals for GPM IMERG-UCORR and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP-MVK) and gauge calibrated (IMERG-CORR and GSMaP-Gauge) products, with a spatial resolution of 0.1°, which is compared to 387-gauge measurements in Nepal from April 2014 to December 2016. The major results are as follows: (1) The gauge calibrated version 5 IMERG-CORR and version 6 GSMaP-Gauge are relatively better than the satellite-only datasets, although they all underestimate the observed precipitation. (2) The daily gauge calibrated GSMaP-Gauge performs fairly well in low and mid-elevation areas, whereas the monthly gauge calibrated IMERG-C performs better in high-elevation areas. (3) For the daily time scale, IMERG-CORR shows a better ability to detect the true precipitation (higher Probability of Detection (POD)) and (lowest False Alarm Ratio (FAR)) events among all datasets. However, all four satellite-based precipitation datasets accurately detect (Critical Success Index (CSI) >40%) precipitation and no-precipitation events. The results of this work provide the systematic quantification of IMERG and GSMaP of satellite precipitation products over Nepal using station observations and delivers a helpful statistical basis for the selection of these datasets for future scientific research.

scholarly journals APPLICATION OF A SPATIAL VERIFICATION METHOD TO GFS PRECIPITATION FORECASTS

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 561
Author(s):  
Fabiani Denise Bender ◽  
Rita Yuri Ynoue
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Verification Method ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Object Based ◽  
Centroid Distance ◽  
Critical Success Index

BSTRACT. This study aims to describe a spatial analysis of precipitation field with the MODE tool, which consists in comparing features converted from griddedforecast and observed precipitation values. This evaluation was performed daily from April 2010 to March 2011, for the 36-h GFS precipitation forecast started at00 UTC over the state of São Paulo and neighborhood. Besides traditional verification measures, such as accuracy (A), critical success index (CSI), bias (BIAS),probability of detection (POD), and false alarm ratio (FAR); new verification measures are proposed, such as area ratio (AR), centroid distance (CD) and 50th and 90thpercentiles ratio of intensity (PR50 and PR90). Better performance was attained during the rainy season. Part of the errors in the simulations was due to overestimationof the forecasted intensity and precipitation areas.Keywords: object-based verification, weather forecast, precipitation, MODE, São Paulo. RESUMO. Este estudo tem como objetivo descrever uma análise espacial do campo de precipitação com a ferramenta MODE, que consiste em converter valores deprecipitação de grade do campo previsto e observado em objetos, que posteriormente serão comparados entre si. A avaliação é realizada diariamente sobre o estadode São Paulo e vizinhança, para o período de abril de 2010 a março de 2011, para as simulações do modelo GFS iniciadas às 00 UTC, na integração de 36 horas. Além da verificação através de índices tradicionais, como probabilidade de acerto (PA), índice crítico de sucesso (ICS), viés (VIÉS), probabilidade de detecção (PD)e razão de falso alarme (RFA), novos índices de avaliação são propostos, como razão de área (RA), distância do centroide (DC) e razão dos percentis 50 e 90 deintensidade (RP50 e RP90). O melhor desempenho ocorreu para a estação chuvosa. Parte dos erros nas simulações foi devido à superestimativa da intensidade e da área de abrangência dos eventos de precipitação em relação ao observado.Palavras-chave: avaliação baseada em objetos, previsão do tempo, precipitação, MODE, São Paulo.

Identification of Range Overlaid Echoes Using Polarimetric Radar Measurements Based on a Fuzzy Logic Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.-G. Park ◽  
Ji-Hyeon Kim ◽  
Jeong-Seok Ko ◽  
Gyuwon Lee
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Range Ambiguity ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Fuzzy Logic Approach ◽  
Logic Approach ◽  
Radar Measurements ◽  
Differential Reflectivity ◽  
Critical Success Index

AbstractThe Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) of South Korea operates two S-band dual-polarimetric radars, as of 2013, to manage water resources through quantitative rainfall estimations at the surface level. However, the radar measurements suffer from range ambiguity. In this study, an algorithm based on fuzzy logic is developed to identify range overlaid echoes using seven inputs: standard deviations of differential reflectivity SD(ZDR), differential propagation phase SD(ϕDP), correlation coefficient SD(ρHV) and spectrum width SD(συ), mean of ρHV and συ, and difference of ϕDP from the system offset ΔϕDP. An examination of the algorithm’s performance shows that these echoes can be well identified and that echoes strongly affected by second trip are highlighted by high probabilities, over 0.6; echoes weakly affected have probabilities from 0.4 to 0.6; and those with low probabilities, below 0.4, are assigned as echoes without range ambiguity. A quantitative analysis of a limited number of cases using the usual skill scores shows that when the probability of 0.4 is considered as a threshold for identifying the range overlaid echoes, they can be identified with a probability of detection of 90%, a false alarm rate of 6%, and a critical success index of 84%.

scholarly journals An Empirical Blowing Snow Forecast Technique for the Canadian Arctic and the Prairie Provinces

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
David G. Baggaley ◽  
John M. Hanesiak
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Canadian Arctic ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Blowing Snow ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Critical Success Index ◽  
Success Index ◽  
Prairie Provinces

Abstract Blowing snow has a major impact on transportation and public safety. The goal of this study is to provide an operational technique for forecasting high-impact blowing snow on the Canadian arctic and the Prairie provinces using historical meteorological data. The focus is to provide some guidance as to the probability of reduced visibilities (e.g., less than 1 km) in blowing snow given a forecast wind speed and direction. The wind character associated with blowing snow was examined using a large database consisting of up to 40 yr of hourly observations at 15 locations in the Prairie provinces and at 17 locations in the arctic. Instances of blowing snow were divided into cases with and without concurrent falling snow. The latter group was subdivided by the time since the last snowfall in an attempt to account for aging processes of the snowpack. An empirical scheme was developed that could discriminate conditions that produce significantly reduced visibility in blowing snow using wind speed, air temperature, and time since last snowfall as predictors. This process was evaluated using actual hourly observations to compute the probability of detection, false alarm ratio, credibility, and critical success index. A critical success index as high as 66% was achieved. This technique can be used to give an objective first guess of the likelihood of high-impact blowing snow using common forecast parameters.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 Convective Outlooks

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 1580-1585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan M. Hitchens ◽  
Harold E. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Initial Effort ◽  
Detection Frequency ◽  
Storm Prediction ◽  
Critical Success Index ◽  
Success Index

Abstract The Storm Prediction Center has issued daily convective outlooks since the mid-1950s. This paper represents an initial effort to examine the quality of these forecasts. Convective outlooks are plotted on a latitude–longitude grid with 80-km grid spacing and evaluated using storm reports to calculate verification measures including the probability of detection, frequency of hits, and critical success index. Results show distinct improvements in forecast performance over the duration of the study period, some of which can be attributed to apparent changes in forecasting philosophies.

Visualizing Multiple Measures of Forecast Quality

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 601-608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J. Roebber
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Multiple Measures ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Performance Statistics ◽  
Critical Success Index ◽  
Success Index ◽  
Forecast Quality

Abstract A method for visually representing multiple measures of dichotomous (yes–no) forecast quality (probability of detection, false alarm ratio, bias, and critical success index) in a single diagram is presented. Illustration of the method is provided using performance statistics from two previously published forecast verification studies (snowfall density and convective initiation) and a verification of several new forecast datasets: Storm Prediction Center forecasts of severe storms (nontornadic and tornadic), Hydrometeorological Prediction Center forecasts of heavy precipitation (greater than 12.5 mm in a 6-h period), National Weather Service Forecast Office terminal aviation forecasts (ceiling and visibility), and medium-range ensemble forecasts of 500-hPa height anomalies. The use of such verification metrics in concert with more detailed investigations to advance forecasting is briefly discussed.

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