Software tool for evaluation of reliability and survivability of complex technical system based on logical-probabilistic methodology

Doklady BGUIR ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 72-80
Author(s):  
V. Yu. Skobtsov ◽  
N. V. Lapitskaya
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Computational Experiments ◽  
Software Complex ◽  
Small Satellites ◽  
Complex Technical System ◽  
Onboard Equipment

The paper presents solutions for estimation and analysis of complex system (CS) reliability and survivability indicators based on the logical-probabilistic approach. Modified logical-probabilistic method and software tool for evaluating the reliability and survivability of onboard equipment (OE) of small satellites were developed (SS). The correctness of the suggested method and software tool was shown by computational experiments on some systems of CS SS similar to Belarusian SS, and later compared with the “Arbitr” software complex results.

scholarly journals Modeling of onboard systems operation of small satellites based on general logical-probabilistic method

2021 ◽  
Vol 1745 (1) ◽  
pp. 012086
Author(s):  
V V Salmin ◽  
I S Tkachenko ◽  
S S Volgin ◽  
M A Ivanushkin
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Small Satellites

scholarly journals Statistical Downscaling of Daily Wind Speed Variations

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 660-675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan C. Kirchmeier ◽  
David J. Lorenz ◽  
Daniel J. Vimont
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Gamma Distribution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Scale Parameters ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Distribution Shape ◽  
Realistic Information

AbstractThis study presents the development of a method to statistically downscale daily wind speed variations in an extended Great Lakes region. A probabilistic approach is used, predicting a daily-varying probability density function (PDF) of local-scale daily wind speed conditioned on large-scale daily wind speed predictors. Advantages of a probabilistic method are that it provides realistic information on the variance and extremes in addition to information on the mean, it allows the autocorrelation of downscaled realizations to be tuned to match the autocorrelation of local-scale observations, and it allows flexibility in the use of the final downscaled product. Much attention is given to fitting the proper functional form of the PDF by investigating the observed local-scale wind speed distribution (predictand) as a function of the decile of the large-scale wind (predictor). It is found that the local-scale standard deviation and the local-scale shape parameter (from a gamma distribution) are nonconstant functions of the large-scale predictor. As such, a vector generalized linear model is developed to relate the large-scale and local-scale wind speeds. Maximum likelihood and cross validation are used to fit local-scale gamma distribution shape and scale parameters to the large-scale wind speed. The result is a daily-varying probability distribution of local-scale wind speed, conditioned on the large-scale wind speed.

DIGITAL DESIGN OPTIMIZATION OF A COMPLEX TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEM

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 85-90
Author(s):  
A.R. ABLAEV ◽  
E.V. KHROMOV ◽  
R.R. ABLAEV ◽  
A.P. POLYAKOV
Keyword(s):  
Design Optimization ◽  
Level Structure ◽  
Phenomenological Approach ◽  
Digital Design ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Software Support ◽  
Complex Technical System ◽  
Complex Optimization ◽  
Complex Technical Systems ◽  
Technical Systems

The article investigates the issue of optimization of a complex technical system at the stage of its design using a heuristic–phenomenological approach. The analysis of the principles of complex optimization of complex technical systems is carried out. A four–level structure for the synthesis of methodological, informational and software support for complex optimization of complex technical systems is proposed, which will allow controlling the programmable parameters of complex technical systems at each stage of their design.

scholarly journals Bottlenecks, Modules, and Dynamic Architectural Capabilities

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carliss Y. Baldwin
Keyword(s):  
Property Rights ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Maximum Effect ◽  
Organizational Boundaries ◽  
Value Capture ◽  
Technical Problems ◽  
Technical Architecture ◽  
Complex Technical System ◽  
Technical Systems

How do firms create and capture value in large technical systems? In this paper, I argue that the points of both value creation and value capture are the system’s bottlenecks. Bottlenecks arise first as important technical problems to be solved. Once the problem is solved, Then the solution in combination with organizational boundaries and property rights can be used to capture a stream of rents. The tools a firm can use to manage bottlenecks are, first, an understanding first of the technical architecture of the system; and, second, an understanding of the industry architecture in which the technical system is embedded. Although these tools involve disparate bodies of knowledge, they must be used in tandem to achieve maximum effect. Dynamic architectural capabilities provide managers with the ability to see a complex technical system in an abstract way and change the system’s structure to manage bottlenecks and modules in conjunction with the firm’s organizational boundaries and property rights.

scholarly journals FEATURES OF DIAGNOSTIC ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS FOR HYBRID EXPERT SYSTEMS

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 36-46
Author(s):  
S. KONOVALOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Expert Systems ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Bulletin Board ◽  
Confidence Factor ◽  
Complex Technical System ◽  
Artificial Neural

In the proposed article, various methods of constructing an artificial neural network as one of the components of a hybrid expert system for diagnosis were investigated. A review of foreign literature in recent years was conducted, where hybrid expert systems were considered as an integral part of complex technical systems in the field of security. The advantages and disadvantages of artificial neural networks are listed, and the main problems in creating hybrid expert systems for diagnostics are indicated, proving the relevance of further development of artificial neural networks for hybrid expert systems. The approaches to the analysis of natural language sentences, which are used for the work of hybrid expert systems with artificial neural networks, are considered. A bulletin board is shown, its structure and principle of operation are described. The structure of the bulletin board is divided into levels and sublevels. At sublevels, a confidence factor is applied. The dependence of the values of the confidence factor on the fulfillment of a particular condition is shown. The links between the levels and sublevels of the bulletin board are also described. As an artificial neural network architecture, the «key-threshold» model is used, the rule of neuron operation is shown. In addition, an artificial neural network has the property of training, based on the application of the penalty property, which is able to calculate depending on the accident situation. The behavior of a complex technical system, as well as its faulty states, are modeled using a model that describes the structure and behavior of a given system. To optimize the data of a complex technical system, an evolutionary algorithm is used to minimize the objective function. Solutions to the optimization problem consist of Pareto solution vectors. Optimization and training tasks are solved by using the Hopfield network. In general, a hybrid expert system is described using semantic networks, which consist of vertices and edges. The reference model of a complex technical system is stored in the knowledge base and updated during the acquisition of new knowledge. In an emergency, or about its premise, with the help of neural networks, a search is made for the cause and the control action necessary to eliminate the accident. The considered approaches, interacting with each other, can improve the operation of diagnostic artificial neural networks in the case of emergency management, showing more accurate data in a short time. In addition, the use of such a network for analyzing the state of health, as well as forecasting based on diagnostic data using the example of a complex technical system, is presented.

scholarly journals DEVELOPMENT OF INVARIANT MODELS OF NOMENCLATURE QUALITY INDICATORS OF COMPLEX TECHNICAL SYSTEM

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 53-59
Author(s):  
S. A. Nazarevich ◽  
V. G. Farafonov ◽  
A. V. Vinnichenko
Keyword(s):  
Quality Indicators ◽  
Product Innovation ◽  
Planning Horizon ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Design Documentation ◽  
Complex Technical System ◽  
Complex Technical Systems ◽  
Selection Of

The article describes the modernization of consumer characteristics, through the selection of the quality indicators nomenclature using cluster analysis, and bringing the complex technical system (CTS) model using the example of civil aviation technology (CAE) to an invariant form. Also, the article uses a methodological apparatus for assessing the degree of product innovation taking into account the total number of product technical characteristics presented by regulatory and design documentation for the products being created. The obtained characteristics were synthesized by translating consumer requirements of the main participants of the civil aviation equipment market segment. Taking into account the opinions of various consumer groups, five clusters were created and the basic structures of the model of a complex technical system were modeled. Applied technological device suitable for solving problems related to structured and classification of valuable technical characteristics with a planning horizon of 10 years various representatives of the company producing different brands of products related to complex technical systems of civil aviation equipment.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of Google within the Frame of a Large Technical System

MaRBLe ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian Johannes Schäfer
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Conceptual Understanding ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Science And Technology Studies ◽  
System Approach ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Technical System ◽  
System Structure ◽  
Theoretical Frameworks ◽  
The Us

The Large Technical System approach was introduced by the influential historian of technology, Thomas P. Hughes, in the 1970’s and is one of the most prominent theoretical frameworks within the Science and Technology Studies. However, it has found little attention in relation to the digital realm. This research applies the LTS framework onto the US-American company Google and seeks to bring a conceptual understanding to the company’s exponential growth. Thus, it describes the emergence and evolution of Google as a complex system – an alignment of components of technical and non-technical nature – and assigns patterns and concepts to its development. This research provides an answer to how Google not only gained a system structure but also reached the notion of momentum. Yet, suggesting a social constructivist path, this paper secludes by elucidating the influencing power of the LTS’s user – an important factor which was widely disregarded in the initial works of Hughes.

Probabilistic Approach to the Assessment of the Depth of Soil Freezing

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerzy Antoni Żurański ◽  
Andrzej Sobolewski
Keyword(s):  
Soil Structure ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Other ◽  
Soil Freezing ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Freezing Depth ◽  
Characteristic Values

The paper deals with the probabilistic method of the assessment of the depth of soil freezing. Annual (winter) maxima of the position of the zero centigrade temperature measured in the soil were approximated by Gumbel probability distribution. Its parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood method. Results received on the base of data from 2 meteorological stations and 30 years of observations, called as characteristic values of 50-year return period, refelect the influence of the climatic conditions on the freezing depth. On the other hand the soil structure and its conditions also play an important role in freezing. Nowadays they may be taken into account using correction coefficients. It is concluded that this methods is more precise than a method using so called air freezing index. Received results are not the same as given in the old Polish Standard. New analysis is currently being done.

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