scholarly journals Features of statistical modeling and forecasting of crime: theoretical aspect

Author(s):  
Andrey Terekhov ◽  
Sergey Kuvychkov ◽  
Sergey Smirnov

The purpose of the work is to provide a theoretical analysis of modern methods of modeling and forecasting the state of crime, which can be used in the system of public administration of the law enforcement sphere. In the course of the research, the peculiarities of using various tools and models for predicting the state of crime are revealed. A significant part of the research of scientists is directed towards the use of spatial and spatiotemporal models, as well as methods of artificial intelligence. The high quality of monthly forecasts is noted. Various economic, social, geographical, temporal and other groups of factors that influence the state of crime are identified. It is established that the quality of the developed crime forecasts depends on the choice of the optimal method and period of forecasting, on the completeness of the information base, including social, economic, legal and other characteristics of the phenomena and processes of public life that affect the criminal situation. It is noted that the practical use of artificial intelligence and econometric analysis methods in predicting the state of crime is becoming particularly relevant at the present time.

2021 ◽  
Vol 128 ◽  
pp. 04018
Author(s):  
V.V. Skorobogatskiy

One of the topical tasks of the development of Russian society is the modernization of the public administration system, bringing the state structure in accordance with the requirements of a new social reality - the transition from an industrial to an information society. The article shows that the administrative-bureaucratic model of public administration, introduced over two decades, has been undergoing a digital transformation in recent years. The main direction of digitalization is the sphere of services that the state provides to citizens, organizations and businesses. It is noted that the usage of modern technologies does not lead to an increase in the efficiency of public administration, and its low quality becomes the main factor hindering economic growth and the formation of human capital. As a result of the study, it is concluded that the reason for the low quality of public administration and the contradictory consequences of its digitalization is that, in terms of its main characteristics, Russian society remains Soviet. The archaization of social, economic and political institutions experienced at the turn of the 1990s-2000s in line with the political course of abandoning market and democratic reforms has created a situation of institutional trap in which Russian society is today and which prevents the effective usage of new generation technologies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-97
Author(s):  
KONSTANTIN A. KORSIK ◽  
◽  
ANASTASIYA A. PARFENCHIKOVA ◽  

The article is devoted to the review of current changes in the legislation on notaries related to the development of electronic civil circulation, analysis of existing digital risks and assessment of the role of notaries in combating them. In modern economic realities, a significant expansion of the sphere of competence of the notary is carried out by introducing completely new notarial actions into the scope of the notary’s terms of reference. At the same time, the notary does not just follow the general ‘digital’ trend, but independently makes significant efforts to effectively perform the tasks of the social sphere regulator assigned to it by the state. The creation of the Unified Notary Information System as part of the formation of the technological infrastructure to ensure the security and stability of legal relations in the context of electronic civil circulation takes to a new level the quality of notarial services and the security of legally relevant information. The role of notaries significantly increases in conditions when the use of digital technologies in the economy, public administration, social sphere becomes one of the main vectors of world development, and society and the state inevitably face the flip side of this process – digital risks that jeopardize the safety of participants in civil turnover and their property. In 2020, as part of the implementation of the national program ‘Digital Economy’, it is planned to introduce a number of innovations that will create the basis for a stable and secure ‘digital’ turnover.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 198-203
Author(s):  
Adilet Merkanov ◽  

Nowadays in Kyrgyz Republic take a place huge reforms of prosecutors. The implementation of national projects requires a new quality of prosecutorial oversight so that the human rights and law enforcement potential of the prosecutor’s office really contributes to the development of a democratic rule of law. The prosecutor's office as one of the state legal institutions plays an extremely important role in the public and state life of the Kyrgyz Republic. As you know, the successful implementation of socio-economic and socio-political transformations in the state largely depends on existing laws, the observance of which the prosecutor's office is called upon to monitor.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 516-520
Author(s):  
Petr M. Morkhat ◽  
Igor V. Ponkin ◽  
Marina V. Markhgeym ◽  
Vladimir K. Botnev ◽  
Aidyn O. Turganbayev

Purpose of Study: The present study was designed to study possibilities, conditions, grounds and limitations regarding the use of technologies and units of artificial intelligence in public administration. Determinants of the need to use such technologies in public administration were also considered. In this study, directions of realizable engagement which is already implemented, as well as directions of the possible use of artificial intelligence units in the future for public administration were investigated to ensure the functioning of system of state executive bodies. Methodology: The present research carried out based on the application of research methods such as system analysis, synthesis, and classification. Using these research methods, the concepts of describing conditions, possibilities, modes and functional-target load of using technologies and units of artificial intelligence in public administration, as well as limitations of its application in public administration were developed. Results: It was found that the use of artificial intelligence by the state for performing its various own tasks is highly relevant as it might lead to finding many positive approbations. However, despite the fact that technologies and artificial intelligence units have been developed for a relatively long time, and some of them are already widely used, it is still impossible to talk about the integrated, fully tested and properly regulated implementation of this kind of technology and units for management, therefore, it is suggested to further investigate on this issue from a theoretical (prognostic) point of view, taking into account potential directions and possibilities regarding    the use of such technology and units. Implications/Applications: The use of technologies and units of artificial intelligence does not necessarily take into account as a panacea for solving the problems and may not lead to solving some systemic problems in public administration, but, on the contrary, may even aggravate some existing problems in public administration and contribute to the emergence of new problems and risks.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 26-30
Author(s):  
Тимур Чукаев ◽  
Timur Chukaev

The Article is devoted to the theoretical and legal heritage of the prominent Russian lawyer Vasily Nikolaevich Leshkov (1810–1881), his ideas about society as a subject of public administration, about the interaction of civil society and the police as subjects of the implementation of the law enforcement function. The methodological basis of the research is general scientific (historical, systemic, functional) and special (formal-legal, historical-legal, comparative-legal) methods of legal research. A theoretical legacy, V. N. Leshkov, which contemporaries did not understand, and the descendants of the forgotten, to comprehend the researchers in the twenty-first century.


Author(s):  
Iaroslav M. Lashchuk

The relevance of the study is that effective public administration constitutes one of the most important factors in the progressive development of the modern state. An important condition for the productive functioning of public authorities is public administration, which acts as a holistic scientific system of organisation of activities. Assessing the effectiveness of public administration decisions is necessary for both public authorities and society. It helps civil servants to control and improve the management process, and helps the society to assess the quality of public institutions. The lack of objective generally accepted indicators for assessing socio-economic processes, the work of bodies and institutions is one of the main problems that hinder the efficiency of the state mechanism. At present, there are no well-established approaches to assessing the effectiveness of public administration decisions. The solution to this problem is a more detailed study of scientific knowledge regarding the system and mechanisms of evaluation. The purpose of the study is to analyse the main modern approaches and mechanisms for evaluating the effectiveness of public administration decisions. The concept of performance evaluation as a complex process is currently the most prevalent and used by modern scientists. Ensuring efficiency is a difficult task for public administration. The diversity of the system requires the use of rational approaches and the creation of differentiated evaluation criteria. The components of the evaluation system in the context of globalisation affect the effectiveness and efficiency and require continuous improvement. The use of special tools and technologies provide flexibility of government decisions and internal integrity, leading to rapid change in the state. mainstreaming of the efficiency improvement and quality of evaluation of public administration decisions directly affects the socio-economic development of the state and improvement of the welfare of the population. The use of evaluation results allows to identify existing problems in a timely manner, to find ways to solve them, improving management by improving the efficiency of public administration at all stages. The practical significance lies in the use of research results in the activities of individual public administration bodies, which will allow to modernise the effectiveness of evaluation of public administration decisions and the management system in general


2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-61
Author(s):  
О. Ю. Прокопенко ◽  
В. І. Кравцов

The problem of legal regulation of interaction between the prosecutor’s office and public administration entities on the issues of performing the assigned functions has been studied. The research is based on studying such legislative acts as the Constitution of Ukraine, Laws of Ukraine “On Central Executive Agencies”, “On the Prosecutor’s Office”, “On the Status of MPs of Ukraine”, “On Temporary Investigative and Special Commissions of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine” and other legislative acts and bylaws regulating the interaction of the prosecutor’s office with state authorities. The interaction of the prosecutor’s office with public administration entities has been defined as the procedure of appeal of the prosecutor’s office to the executive authorities, which is regulated by law norms, as well as the procedure of consideration of the appeals of MPs and representatives of the executive authorities in the prosecutor’s office. The authors have established the following main directions of the interaction between the prosecutor’s office and the state authorities: consideration of Mps inquiries by the prosecutor’s office, participation of prosecutors in the work of investigative commissions and temporary special commissions of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, interaction of the prosecutor’s office with the Accounting Chamber of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, prosecutors’ representation of state interests in the court by presenting lawsuits within administrative, commercial or civil proceedings, interaction of the prosecutor’s office with the judicial branch of power in the process of judicial system, coordination of law enforcement activity, informing the representative authorities about the results of the activity of the prosecutor’s office and the rule of law in the state and individual territorial community. Improvement of legal principles of cooperation between prosecutor’s office and public administration entities can take place in such areas as bringing the provisions of the Law of Ukraine “On the Prosecutor’s Office” in line with the Constitution of Ukraine, development of a common form of request to all prosecutor’s office in regard to represent the interests in court, establishment of uniform terms for all authorities to consider their requests by the prosecutor’s office, establishment of a separate norm in the Law of Ukraine “On the Prosecutor’s Office” that would regulate the procedure and conditions of coordination of law enforcement activities of other authorities by the prosecutor’s office.


Author(s):  
Anastasia Alekseenko

The article deals with studying the institutional dysfunction of the Russian market of mergers and acquisitions. It proves that problems of functioning and quality of formal regulating institutions hinder its effective development. The contradiction of interests between the state as a subject of regulation and the state as a participant of the market resulted in forming institutional microdysfunctions connected with “double standards” of law enforcement for different types of owners, striving to obtain bureaucracy rent, intertwining functional actions of the state as a regulator and the state as a market participant. This contributed to the regular blocking of the trap effect in applying valuation norms in the antitrust law, causing impossibility to effectively prevent unfair deals and at the same time hinder fair and effective deals in the Russian market of mergers and acquisitions. To settle this problem it is required to use changes aimed at reducing asymmetric information between subjects of the Russian market of mergers and acquisitions and the state, and also blocking informal institutions which are in conflict with formal regulating institutions. Improving evaluation methods of economic analysis in the antitrust practice, expanding informal control (such as making independent expert research of future substantial deals and also analyzing performed deals) will contribute to overcoming the existing dysfunctions of the Russian market of mergers and acquisitions.


Author(s):  
Alina Mungiu-Pippidi

In 1999, Evans and Rauch showed a strong association between government effectiveness (quality of government)—particularly the presence of a Weberian-like bureaucracy, selected and promoted on merit alone and largely autonomous from private interests—and economic growth. In 1997 and the aftermath of the Washington Consensus controversial reforms the World Bank promoted this finding in its influential World Development Report 1997 as part of its broader paradigm on “institutional quality.” Twenty years of investment in state capacity followed, by means of foreign assistance supporting the quality of public administration as a prerequisite to development. However, most reviews found the results well under expectations. This is hardly surprising, seeing that Max Weber, credited as the first promoter of the importance of bureaucracy as both the end result and the tool of government rationalization in modern times, never took for granted the autonomy of the state apparatus from private interest. He clearly stated that the power using the apparatus is the one steering the bureaucracy itself. In fact, a review of empirical evidence shows that the quality of public administration is endogenous to the quality of government more broadly and therefore can hardly be a solution in problematic contexts. The autonomy of the state from private interest is one of the most difficult objectives to accomplish in the evolution of a state, and few states have managed in contemporary times to match the achievements of Denmark or Switzerland in the 19th century. Two countries, Estonia and Georgia, are exceptional in this regard, but their success argues for the primacy of politics rather than of administration.


2019 ◽  
pp. 30-39
Author(s):  
S.V. Kozlova ◽  
O.M. Gribanova

This article analyzes the goals, principles and institutional environment of the state Treasury, as well as the mechanisms of its management. We consider the Treasury management system as a subsystem of state property management in General due to the fact that the Treasury is a part of state property. At the same time, we proceed from the fact that the Treasury has its own characteristics — in goal setting, in accounting, in the end — and in the principles of management. At the same time, we will approach the management process based on the General principles of the theory of management of a complex system and based on common approaches to improving the quality of management. The findings of the study can be used not only for the management of the Treasury, but also for the management of state property in General.


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