scholarly journals COVID-19 Risk Minimization Decision Making Strategy Using Data-Driven Model

Author(s):  
Akey Sungheetha

In order to establish social resilient and sustainable cities during the pandemic outbreak, it is essential to forecast the epidemic trends and trace infection by means of data-driven solution addressing the requirements of local operational defense applications and global strategies. The smartphone based Digital Proximity Tracing Technology (DPTT) has obtained a great deal of interest with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in terms of mitigation, containing and monitoring with the population acceptance insights and effectiveness of the function. The DPTTs and Data-Driven Epidemic Intelligence Strategies (DDEIS) are compared in this paper to identify the shortcomings and propose a novel solution to overcome them. In terms of epidemic resurgence risk minimization, guaranteeing public health safety and quick return of cities to normalcy, a social as well as technological solution may be provided by incorporating the key features of DDEIS. The role of human behavior is taken into consideration while assessing its limitations and benefits for policy making as well as individual decision making. The epidemiological model of SEIR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered) provides preliminary data for the preferences of users in a DPTT. The impact of the proposed model on the spread dynamics of Covid-19 is evaluated and the results are presented.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 644
Author(s):  
Dario Esposito ◽  
Giovanni Dipierro ◽  
Alberico Sonnessa ◽  
Stefania Santoro ◽  
Simona Pascazio ◽  
...  

In a modern pandemic outbreak, where collective threats require global strategies and local operational defence applications, data-driven solutions for infection tracing and forecasting epidemic trends are crucial to achieve sustainable and socially resilient cities. Indeed, the need for monitoring, containing, and mitigating the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has generated a great deal of interest in Digital Proximity Tracing Technology (DPTT) on smartphones, as well as their function and effectiveness and insights of population acceptance. This paper introduces and compares different Data-Driven Epidemic Intelligence Strategies (DDEIS) developed on DPTTs. It aims to clarify to what extent DDEIS could be effective and both technologically and socially suitable in reaching the objective of a swift return to normality for cities, guaranteeing public health safety and minimizing the risk of epidemic resurgence. It assesses key advantages and limits in supporting both individual decision-making and policy-making, considering the role of human behaviour. Specifically, an online survey carried out in Italy revealed user preferences for DPTTs and provided preliminary data for an SEIR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered) epidemiological model. This was developed to evaluate the impact of DDEIS on COVID-19 spread dynamics, and results are presented together with an evaluation of potential drawbacks.


2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Ran Xiong ◽  
Ping Wei

Confucian culture has had a deep-rooted influence on Chinese thinking and behavior for more than 2,000 years. With a manually created Confucian culture database and the 2017 China floating population survey, we used empirical analysis to test the relationship between Confucian culture and individual entrepreneurial choice using data obtained from China's floating population. After using the presence and number of Confucian schools and temples, and of chaste women as instrumental variables to counteract problems of endogeneity, we found that Confucian culture had a significant role in promoting individuals' entrepreneurial decision making among China's floating population. The results showed that, compared with those from areas of China not strongly influenced by Confucian culture, individuals from areas that are strongly influenced by Confucian culture were more likely to choose entrepreneurship as their occupation choice. Our findings reveal cultural factors that affect individual entrepreneurial behavior, and also illustrate the positive role of Confucianism as a representative of the typical cultures of the Chinese nation in the 21st century.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 638-669
Author(s):  
Miriam Alzate ◽  
Marta Arce-Urriza ◽  
Javier Cebollada

When studying the impact of online reviews on product sales, previous scholars have usually assumed that every review for a product has the same probability of being viewed by consumers. However, decision-making and information processing theories underline that the accessibility of information plays a role in consumer decision-making. We incorporate the notion of review visibility to study the relationship between online reviews and product sales, which is proxied by sales rank information, studying three different cases: (1) when every online review is assumed to have the same probability of being viewed; (2) when we assume that consumers sort online reviews by the most helpful mechanism; and (3) when we assume that consumers sort online reviews by the most recent mechanism. Review non-textual and textual variables are analyzed. The empirical analysis is conducted using a panel of 119 cosmetic products over a period of nine weeks. Using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) method for dynamic models of panel data, our findings reveal that review variables influence product sales, but the magnitude, and even the direction of the effect, vary amongst visibility cases. Overall, the characteristics of the most helpful reviews have a higher impact on sales.


1998 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
WILL H. MOORE ◽  
DAVID R. DAVIS

In this article, the authors develop and empirically evaluate a general model of the linkages between domestic and international conflict behavior. Much of the literature on domestic international interactions has focused on the structural constraints of the international and domestic systems on leaders' foreign policy decisions. Rather than focusing on structural constraints, the present authors model the influence of the behavior of domestic and international rivals on leader decision making. The impact of rivals' behavior on conflict across the domestic-international nexus has been neglected relative to the role of structural factors. This study helps redress that imbalance. The authors test their model with a statistical analysis of Zaire during the period 1975 to 1992 and find substantial support for the model.


Author(s):  
Rajali Maharjan ◽  
Shinya Hanaoka

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reveal the importance of the order of establishment of temporary logistics hubs (TLHs) when resources (mobile storage units used as TLHs) are limited and to present the development and implementation of a methodology that determines the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making. Design/methodology/approach It employed a decision support system that considers multiple decision makers and subjective attributes, while also addressing the impreciseness inherent in post-disaster decision making for ordering the establishment of TLHs. To do so, an optimization model was combined with a fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making approach. A numerical illustration was performed using data from the April 2015 Nepal Earthquake. Findings The results showed the location and order of establishment of TLHs, and demonstrated the impact of decision makers’ opinions on the overall ordering. Research limitations/implications The study does not discuss the uncertain nature of the location problem and the potential need for relocation of TLHs. Practical implications This methodology offers managerial insights for post-disaster decision making when resources are limited and their effective utilization is vital. The results highlight the importance of considering the opinions of multiple actors/decision makers to enable coordination and avoid complication between the growing numbers of humanitarian responders during disaster response. Originality/value This study introduces the concept of the order of establishment of TLHs and demonstrates its importance when resources are limited. It develops and implements a methodology determining the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11/1 (-) ◽  
pp. 37-39
Author(s):  
Olena POSHYVALOVA

Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused grave and severe losses in many of the economies across the globe. The impact and the duration of the economic crisis occurring due to the pandemic among certain households is difficult to anticipate since the indeterminacy is being defined through the duration of the crisis and costs for the recovery of the economy. The purpose of the paper is to study theoretical aspects related to the assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the poverty of households. Methods. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study are modern theories, concepts, hypotheses. Comparative analysis is used. The methodological and information basis of the work are scientific works, materials of periodicals, information resources. Results. The paper incorporates a content analysis of studies focusing on the economic impact of the COVID-19 on the development of national economies. The majority of studies assess economic implications of the COVID-19 however they are concentrated on the macroeconomic and financial impact of the Corona Crisis. The impact on national economies is subsequently reduced to the microlevel, specifically the social and economic impact on individuals. Nonetheless, there is a need for a microanalysis which may better describe the interrelation between sectors and countries (the effect of macroeconomic aggregate indicators) and supplement the macroanalysis, providing more relevant evaluations of the impact of the distribution of income, outline the authorities of households, the role of people's savings, determine the resilience of households. The work establishes main assumptions and restrictions of formulating the model of impact of social and economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the poverty of households Conclusion. Taking into consideration the distribution of incomes for various sectors, the proposed model allows to ensure the assessment of losses in the consumption of households, savings depletion and time for their recovery. It has been proven that without the social protection of the population the Corona Crisis will lead to a massive economic shock for the national economy. Prospects of further studies lie in the assessment of the impact of indirect macro-level factors, role of indeterminacy in the decision-making of households and implications in case of numerous waves of social crisis as well as the possible effect in the condition of concurrent exogenous shocks.


Author(s):  
Bich Huy Hai Bui ◽  
Minh Tien Pham

The purpose of this study is to explore perceptions of entrepreneurial motivations and barriers and to assess their influence on the entrepreneurial intention of engineering students. Using data of 350 respondents who are students at HCMC University of Technology, VNU-HCM, the study identifies the key motives and barriers towards entrepreneurship. The data are then subjected to statistical regression in order to identify causal relationships between the motivations, barriers, and entrepreneurial intention. The results indicate that creativity, independence, and economic motivation have a positive impact on entrepreneurial intention and that the most important motivator for the entrepreneurial intention of engineering students is creativity. On the contrary, lack of knowledge is the only barrier (an internal barrier) that impedes the students' intention of entrepreneurship. These results imply that the students' entrepreneurial intention is more affected by internal factors (for both motivations and barriers) than external factors. In terms of the relative power of the effects of motives and barriers on students' entrepreneurial intention, the results suggest that the impact of motivations is generally more powerful than that of barriers. The findings have important implications for educators and policymakers.


The Winners ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Mochamad Sandy Triady ◽  
Ami Fitri Utami

Billy Beanes’s success in using data-driven decision making in baseball industry is wonderfully written by Michael Lewis in Moneyball. As a general manager in baseball team that were in the bottom position of the league from the financial side to acquire the players, Beane, along with his partner, explored the use of data in choosing the team’s player. They figured out how to determine the worth of every player.The process was not smooth, due to the condition of baseball industry that was not common with using advanced statistic in acquiring   players. Many teams still use the old paradigm that rely on experts’ judgments, intuition, or experience in decision making process. Moneyball approached that using data-driven decision making gave excellent result for Beane’s team. The team won 20 gamessequently in the 2002 season and also spent the lowest cost per win than other teams.This paper attempts to review the principles of Moneyball – The Art of Winning an Unfair Game as a process of decision making and gives what we can learn from the story in order to win the games, the unfair games.


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