Early Serum Progesterone Measurement on 9th Day after Oocyte Retrieval can be used as a Predictor of Fresh Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection Cycle Success

BACKGROUND: In intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) infertility treatment cycles, measuring serum Progesterone level at day 9 after oocyte retrieval could be used as a predictor of success. METHODS: Sixty-nine women were prospectively included in this study, treated with fresh embryo transfer ICSI cycles. Progesterone analyses were performed on the day of oocyte pick up (day 0) at serum and follicular fluid, then re-assessment at serum on day 9 after oocyte retrieval. The data were compared to evaluate the correlation among hormones measured on day 0 and day 9 with pregnancy rate. RESULTS: Pregnancy rate of Iraqi women was 22% (n = 15), mean serum progesterone on day 9 among pregnant ladies was (mean ± SD, 39.5 ± 13.0) which was significantly higher than that who failed to get pregnant (mean 23.2 ± 11, p = 0.001), then after adjustment of the baseline readings (day 0) estimated mean = 11.1. The differences were still significant, receiver operating characteristic curve area showed that serum Progesterone on day 9 after pick up can differentiate correctly between those who will conceive and those who will not, with a sensitivity = 0.933 and specificity = 0.519, at cut off point = 22.33 and above, (Area under the curve = 0.822, p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Serum progesterone on day 9 could be one of the predictors of endometrial receptivity and pregnancy, which is actually of great value for both doctors and patients during that stressful period till the date of confirmation, which might negatively affect treatment outcome, as well as the psychosocial and pharmacological impact of medication and limited activity for a failed one.