Improvement and Application of Risk Matrix

2013 ◽  
Vol 357-360 ◽  
pp. 2650-2654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Jue Yi ◽  
Chao Yu Zheng ◽  
Qi Hao Fu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Matrix Method ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Evaluation Methods ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Risk Investment

On the basis of the analysis of investment project risk evaluation methods, this article mainly discusses the risk matrix method in the application of risk assessment in risk investment project and constructs the risk matrix for risk assessment in risk investment project and designs risk matrix based on the process of risk assessment, hoping to provide a scientific, rational, easy assessment method for risk assessment in risk investment project.

Risk Assessment of Tractor-Related Hazards Based on Accident Cases

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 133-152
Author(s):  
Byounggap Kim ◽  
Seongyoon Lim ◽  
Seung-Yeoub Shin ◽  
Sunghyun Yum ◽  
Yu-Yong Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Frequency Estimation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Expert Review ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
Statistical Results

Abstract. Annually, tractor accidents are estimated to account for more than 100 deaths in South Korea. Periodic accident surveys have served as an essential means for the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) to develop strategies to prevent tractor accidents. In this study, hazards leading to accidents were identified, and their risks were assessed based on survey results to establish a more effective accident prevention strategy. Risk assessment for hazards proceeded as follows: hazard identification, frequency estimation, number of equivalent fatalities (NEF) estimation, and finally risk evaluation. Hazards were identified by analyzing 588 accident cases from NAS surveys and performing an expert review of the analysis results by implementing a Delphi survey. The frequency and NEF of each hazard were estimated by multiplying its probabilities and the statistical results of the NAS surveys. Each hazard was plotted in a frequency-NEF (FN) diagram and evaluated according to its position. Fifty-four hazards were identified, and their frequencies and NEF values were estimated. The risk evaluation results, based on the FN diagram, revealed that no hazard was located in the “unacceptable” area, and two hazards (carelessness and not looking ahead carefully) were in the “as low as reasonably practicable” area. Thus, it is critical to mitigate the effects of these two hazards. With the risk assessment method used in this study, personnel who are engaged in the prevention of tractor accidents, such as policymakers, extension specialists, and researchers, can quantitatively predict how many cases or fatalities can be reduced by eliminating a certain hazard. Keywords: Equivalent fatality, Frequency estimation, Hazard identification, Risk assessment, Tractor accident.

Application of Monto-Carlo Method in HR Investment Risk Evaluation

2010 ◽  
Vol 458 ◽  
pp. 131-136
Author(s):  
Jing Jing Lu ◽  
Xuan Xi Ning
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Computer Program ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Index Function ◽  
Project Risk Analysis

Monto-Carlo method is widely used for project risk analysis. Evaluating the risk in HR (Human Resources) investment project, which is of hi-investment and hi-return, by Monto-carlo method is a new attempt. In this paper, by taking cost, profit and risk in the HR investment as index, emulation model of HR investment and index function of risk evaluation were established. Simulation about the whole investment course was done by computer program using Monto-Carlo method. Case study of HR investment risk evaluation was done later using concrete data.

scholarly journals Dynamic Risk Assessment of Ultra-Shallow-Buried and Large-Span Double-Arch Tunnel Construction

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 11721
Author(s):  
Jianxiu Wang ◽  
Ansheng Cao ◽  
Zhao Wu ◽  
Zhipeng Sun ◽  
Xiao Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Tunnel Excavation ◽  
Rock Reinforcement ◽  
Large Span ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Result

Ultra-shallow-buried and large-span double-arch tunnels face complex risks during construction. The risk sources are hidden, complicated, and diverse. The dynamic risk assessment problem cannot be solved satisfactorily by using the static method as an insufficient amount of research has been conducted. The land part of the Xiamen Haicang double-arch tunnel was selected as the background for the dynamic risk assessment of ultra-shallow-buried and large-span double-arch tunnel construction. The construction process was divided into five stages: pre-construction preparation; ground and surrounding rock reinforcement; pilot tunnel excavation; and the single-and the double-tunnel excavations of the main tunnel. Through consultation with tunnel experts, six first-level and thirty second-level risk evaluation indexes were proposed. The benchmark weight of the dynamic risk assessment index was determined by using the analytic hierarchy process. The weight of the risk evaluation index was revised according to the monitoring data and the construction stage. The fuzzy evaluation matrix of the construction risk membership degree was obtained by using the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, and the calculation results were analyzed using the subsection assignment method. Control measures were suggested according to the risk assessment results. The risk assessment result of the double tunnel excavation stage of the main tunnel was level II, and the risk level was the highest among the five construction stages. The risk assessment result of the ground and surrounding rock reinforcement stage was level IV, and the risk level was the lowest. The dynamic construction safety risk assessment based on the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is more timely, accurate, and reasonable than the traditional assessment method. The method can be adopted in similar engineering projects.

scholarly journals A Novel Project Risk Assessment Method Development via AHP-TOPSIS Hybrid Algorithm

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 390-410
Author(s):  
Emin Başar Baylan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Activity Level ◽  
Topsis Method ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Decision Method ◽  
Project Activity ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Output Quality ◽  
Project Risks

In project planning, risk assessment method plays vital role. Poorly assessed project risks cause degeneration at project cost, project completion time, and project output quality and project scope. Each project activity risk influence these project success factors. Implementation performance of a project activity triggers or smooth of its successor’s activity risks. Because of this; employing robust and detailed risk assessment methods is important to reach those project goals. In project risk assessment literature, when it is investigated, it is noticed that risk assessment and evaluation methods are only developed at whole project level. Actually, they are not comprehensive enough to evaluate the project risks at activity level. Besides that traditional risk assessment methods such as risk matrix does not able analyze project risk quantitatively. With this motivation, main aim of this study is developing a multi-criteria based decision method which prioritizing project risks at activity level. AHP and TOPSIS method are combined to developed novel method. In this hybrid method, Constructing AHP model is to prioritize work packages with respect to relative importance of project time, project output quality and project cost. Broken down structure of these work packages are used as input for weighted criteria for TOPSIS method. In second layer of this decision method, TOPSIS model is used for prioritizing predetermined activity risks according weighted project work packages success criteria. In the application of this method, a case study approach is followed. In this sense, “Global Furniture Ltd.” which is established in Istanbul, Turkey is chosen as a case to apply newly developed model. Results showed that application of AHP-Stochastic TOPSIS Hybrid Algorithm provides a platform that project risks could be analyzed as quantitative and also at project activity level.

scholarly journals VERBAL ANALYSIS AND ITS APPLICATION FOR THE ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF THE INVESTMENT PROJECT RISK IN CONSTRUCTION

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galina Shevchenko ◽  
Leonas Ustinovichius
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Investment Process ◽  
Verbal Analysis

The paper investigates the investment decision–making, risk assessment and management problems faced by all participants of the investment process in construction. The main object of paper – risk of investment projects in construction. Companies often have to make investment decisions under uncertainty and therefore the study emphasizes the need, for carryng out investigations, developing metodology and intelectual decision making system that would holistically assess the whole available information to the investment project, increase the accuracy of risk assessment, improve project information management, reduce project risk factors for the occurrence of potential and would make informed investment decisions. The created and described verbal analysis method of the real alternatyve classification was integrated into the proposed model and implemented in practice.

scholarly journals Economic-mathematical model for complex risk assessment of the enterprise investment project using fuzzy logic

2021 ◽  
Vol 107 ◽  
pp. 12002
Author(s):  
Inna Chaikovska ◽  
Pavlo Hryhoruk ◽  
Maksym Chaikovskyi
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Linguistic Terms ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Project Risks

The article proposes an economic-mathematical model for determining a comprehensive risk assessment of the investment project of the enterprise which are based on the approaches of A. Nedosekin. The model is built using fuzzy logic and takes into account the probability of occurrence of each of the identified risks and the level of impact of each of them on the project. The probability of risk is set by experts in the form of points and converted into linguistic terms, and the level of influence of each of them on the project – the ratio of benefits and is determined using Fishburne scales. The proposed Project Risk Model consists of the following stages: formation of initial data using expert opinions; construction of a hierarchical project risk tree; determination of weight coefficients (Fishburne weights) of project risks; selection and description of membership function and linguistic variables; conversion of input data provided by experts from a score scale into linguistic terms; recognition of qualitative input data on a linguistic scale; determination of a complex indicator of investment project risks; interpretation of a complex indicator. The developed model allows managing the risks of the project to maximize the probability of its successful implementation, to compare alternative projects and choose less risky, to minimize the level of unforeseen costs of the project.

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