Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan

Wang, H., He, Y., Qian, B., McConkey, B., Cutforth, H., McCaig, T., McLeod, G., Zentner, R., DePauw, R., Lemke, R., Brandt, K., Liu, T., Qin, X., White, J., Hunt, T. and Hoogenboom, G. 2012. Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan. Can. J. Plant Sci. 92: 421–425. This study assessed potential impacts of climate change on wheat production as a biofuel crop in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios (CGCM3 with the forcing scenarios of IPCC SRES A1B, A2 and B1) in the 2050s. Synthetic 300-yr weather data were generated by the AAFC stochastic weather generator for the baseline period (1961–1990) and each scenario. Compared with the baseline, precipitation is projected to increase in every month under all three scenarios except in July and August and in June for A2, when it is projected to decrease. Annual mean air temperature is projected to increase by 3.2, 3.6 and 2.7°C for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. The model predicted increases in biomass by 28, 12 and 16% without the direct effect of CO2 and 74, 55 and 41% with combined effects (climate and CO2) for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. Similar increases were found for grain yield. However, the occurrence of heat shock (>32°C) will increase during grain filling under the projected climate conditions and could cause severe yield reduction, which was not simulated by DSSAT-CSM. This implies that the future yield under climate scenarios might have been overestimated by DSSAT-CSM; therefore, model modification is required. Several measures, such as early seeding, must be taken to avoid heat damages and take the advantage of projected increases in temperature and precipitation in the early season.

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Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Wheat in Contrasting Climatic Regions of Iran

Frontiers in Agronomy ◽

10.3389/fagro.2021.806146 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 ◽

Author(s):

Meisam Nazari ◽

Behnam Mirgol ◽

Hamid Salehi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Grain Yield ◽

Nitrogen Fertilizer ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Yield Reduction ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Planting Dates ◽

Change Impact ◽

Rainfed Wheat ◽

Semi Arid

This is the first large-scale study to assess the climate change impact on the grain yield of rainfed wheat for three provinces of contrasting climatic conditions (temperate, cold semi-arid, and hot arid) in Iran. Five integrative climate change scenarios including +0.5°C temperature plus−5% precipitation, +1°C plus−10%, +1.5°C plus−15%, +2°C plus−20%, and +2.5°C plus−25% were used and evaluated. Nitrogen fertilizer and shifting planting dates were tested for their suitability as adaptive strategies for rainfed wheat against the changing climate. The climate change scenarios reduced the grain yield by −6.9 to −44.8% in the temperate province Mazandaran and by −7.3 to −54.4% in the hot arid province Khuzestan but increased it by +16.7% in the cold semi-arid province Eastern Azarbaijan. The additional application of +15, +30, +45, and +60 kg ha−1 nitrogen fertilizer as urea at sowing could not, in most cases, compensate for the grain yield reductions under the climate change scenarios. Instead, late planting dates in November, December, and January enhanced the grain yield by +6 to +70.6% in Mazandaran under all climate change scenarios and by +94 to +271% in Khuzestan under all climate change scenarios except under the scenario +2.5°C temperature plus−25% precipitation which led to a grain yield reduction of −85.5%. It is concluded that rainfed wheat production in regions with cold climates can benefit from the climate change, but it can be impaired in temperate regions and especially in vulnerable hot regions like Khuzestan. Shifting planting date can be regarded as an efficient yield-compensating and environmentally friendly adaptive strategy of rainfed wheat against the climate change in temperate and hot arid regions.

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Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Phenology and Grain Yield in Irrigated Drylands of Central Asia

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ◽

10.1175/jamc-d-12-0182.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 52 (9) ◽

pp. 2033-2050 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

K. P. Devkota ◽

A. M. Manschadi ◽

M. Devkota ◽

J. P. A. Lamers ◽

E. Ruzibaev ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Grain Yield ◽

Central Asia ◽

Growth And Yield ◽

Weather Data ◽

Rice Grain ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Rice Varieties ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

The Impact

AbstractRice is the second major food crop in central Asia. Climate change may greatly affect the rice production in the region. This study quantifies the effects of projected increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration on the phenological development and grain yield of rice using the “ORYZA2000” simulation model. The model was parameterized and validated on the basis of datasets from three field experiments with three widely cultivated rice varieties under various seeding dates in the 2008–09 growing seasons in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. The selected rice varieties represent short-duration (SD), medium-duration (MD), and long-duration (LD) maturity types. The model was linked with historical climate data (1970–99) and temperatures and CO2 concentrations projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the B1 and A1F1 scenarios for the period 2040–69 to explore rice growth and yield formation at eight emergence dates from early May to mid-July. Simulation results with historical daily weather data reveal a close relationship between seeding date and rice grain yield. Optimal emergence dates were 25 June for SD, 5 June for MD, and 26 May for LD varieties. Under both climate change scenarios, the seeding dates could be delayed by 10 days. Increased temperature and CO2 concentration resulted in higher rice grain yields. However, seeding rice before and after the optimal seeding dates reduced crop yield and yield stability significantly because of spikelet sterility induced by both high and low temperatures. As the grain yield of SD varieties could be adversely affected by climate change, rice breeding programs for central Asia should focus on developing appropriate heat-tolerant MD and LD varieties.

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Modeling the sensitivity of CERES-Rice model: An experience of Nepal

Agronomy Journal of Nepal ◽

10.3126/ajn.v3i0.8982 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 3 ◽

pp. 11-22 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

A Lamsal ◽

LP Amgai ◽

A Giri

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Grain Yield ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽

Yield Reduction ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Growth Duration ◽

Climatic Scenario

The experiment was conducted with four levels of nitrogen (40, 80,120 and 160 kg/ha) and 3 different cultivars (Prithivi hybrid), Masuli (HYV) and Sunaulo Sugandha (Aromatic).RMSE value (747.35 kg/ha, 1.106 days, 2.58 days and 0.004 kg/ha) and D-stat value (0.793, 0.99, 0.99 and 0.633) for grain yield, anthesis days, maturity days, and individual grain weight respectively. The objective of this study was to identify whether CSM-CERES-Rice model can be used in Nepalese condition and to evaluate the sensitivity of model with impact of climate change on rice production. Eight different climate scenarios were built by perturbing maximum and minimum temperature (± 4°C), CO2 (± 20ppm), solar radiation (±1MJ/m2/day) using interactive sensitivity analysis mode in DSSAT. Among the scenario evaluated, temperature (± 40°C), CO2 concentration (+20 ppm) with change in solar radiation (±1MJ m-2 day-1) resulted maximum increase in yield (by 62, 41 and 42%) under decreasing climatic scenarios and sharp decline in yield (by 80, 46 and 40%) was observed under increasing climate change scenarios, in Prithivi, Masuli and Sunaulo Sugandha cultivars respectively.Not surprisingly, increasing yield by (48, 25 and 27 %) and decrease in yield by(77, 41 and 34) by perturbing only maximum and minimum temperature by (± 4) shows that the temperature is most sensitive for yield potentiality of cultivars than other. CERES-Riceversion 4.0 was well calibrated in Chitwan Nepal condition. The model applications show that model could be a tool for precision decision-making. There was variation in yield in response to the change in climatic scenario in the study. RMSE value (747.4 kg/ha, 1.11days, and 2.58 days), and d-stat (0.79, 0.99 and 0.99) for grain yield, anthesis, and maturity days confirm the possibility of CERESRiceuse in Nepalese agriculture. The finding showed that there was sharp decrease in rice yield due to change in temperature, CO2 and solar radiation. Climatic scenario developed by CERES-Rice model in sensitivity analysis resulted yield reduction up to 80%. Among the cultivar, hybrid rice shows more vulnerability with climate change. Decrease in yield were mainly associated with lowering growth duration along with increasing temperature, where as there is very less counter effect of increasing carbon dioxide concentration and solar radiation. Agronomy Journal of Nepal (Agron JN) Vol. 3. 2013, Page 11-22 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ajn.v3i0.8982

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Winter Wheat Adaptation to Climate Change in Turkey

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy11040689 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 689

Author(s):

Yuksel Kaya

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

Grain Yield ◽

Spring Wheat ◽

Control Treatment ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Combined Effects ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Wheat Genotypes ◽

Plant Characteristics

Climate change scenarios reveal that Turkey’s wheat production area is under the combined effects of heat and drought stresses. The adverse effects of climate change have just begun to be experienced in Turkey’s spring and the winter wheat zones. However, climate change is likely to affect the winter wheat zone more severely. Fortunately, there is a fast, repeatable, reliable and relatively affordable way to predict climate change effects on winter wheat (e.g., testing winter wheat in the spring wheat zone). For this purpose, 36 wheat genotypes in total, consisting of 14 spring and 22 winter types, were tested under the field conditions of the Southeastern Anatolia Region, a representative of the spring wheat zone of Turkey, during the two cropping seasons (2017–2018 and 2019–2020). Simultaneous heat (>30 °C) and drought (<40 mm) stresses occurring in May and June during both growing seasons caused drastic losses in winter wheat grain yield and its components. Declines in plant characteristics of winter wheat genotypes, compared to those of spring wheat genotypes using as a control treatment, were determined as follows: 46.3% in grain yield, 23.7% in harvest index, 30.5% in grains per spike and 19.4% in thousand kernel weight, whereas an increase of 282.2% in spike sterility occurred. On the other hand, no substantial changes were observed in plant height (10 cm longer than that of spring wheat) and on days to heading (25 days more than that of spring wheat) of winter wheat genotypes. In general, taller winter wheat genotypes tended to lodge. Meanwhile, it became impossible to avoid the combined effects of heat and drought stresses during anthesis and grain filling periods because the time to heading of winter wheat genotypes could not be shortened significantly. In conclusion, our research findings showed that many winter wheat genotypes would not successfully adapt to climate change. It was determined that specific plant characteristics such as vernalization requirement, photoperiod sensitivity, long phenological duration (lack of earliness per se) and vulnerability to diseases prevailing in the spring wheat zone, made winter wheat difficult to adapt to climate change. The most important strategic step that can be taken to overcome these challenges is that Turkey’s wheat breeding program objectives should be harmonized with the climate change scenarios.

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Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change Scenarios on Ground Subsidence

Water ◽

10.3390/w12010219 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 219 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽

David Pulido-Velazquez ◽

Rosa María Mateos ◽

Pablo Ezquerro

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Subsidence ◽

Ground Subsidence ◽

Lower Percentage ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Fine Grained ◽

Fine Grained Material ◽

The Impact

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.

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