Climate Change Scenarios, Perceptions and Crop Production: A Case Study of Semi-Arid Masvingo Province in Zimbabwe

Author(s):  
Farai Malvern Simba
Ecopersia ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 1585-1602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Akbari ◽  
◽  
Majid Ownegh ◽  
Hamidreza Asgari ◽  
Amir Sadoddin ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 3353-3366
Author(s):  
Paulo Victor N. Araújo ◽  
Venerando E. Amaro ◽  
Leonlene S. Aguiar ◽  
Caio C. Lima ◽  
Alexandre B. Lopes

Abstract. Previous studies on tidal flood mapping are mostly through continental- and/or global-scale approaches. Moreover, the few works on local-scale perception are concentrated in Europe, Asia, and North America. Here, we present a case study approaching a tidal flood risk mapping application in the face of climate change scenarios in a region with a strong environmental and social appeal. The study site is an estuarine cut in the Brazilian semi-arid region, covering part of two state conservation units, which has been suffering severe consequences from tidal flooding in recent years. In this case study, we used high-geodetic-precision data (lidar DEM), together with robust tidal return period statistics and data from current sea level rise scenarios. We found that approximately 327.60 km2 of the estuary is under tidal flood risk and in need of mitigation measures. This case study can serve as a basis for future management actions, as well as a model for applying risk mapping in other coastal areas.


Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 295
Author(s):  
Yuan Gao ◽  
Anyu Zhang ◽  
Yaojie Yue ◽  
Jing’ai Wang ◽  
Peng Su

Suitable land is an important prerequisite for crop cultivation and, given the prospect of climate change, it is essential to assess such suitability to minimize crop production risks and to ensure food security. Although a variety of methods to assess the suitability are available, a comprehensive, objective, and large-scale screening of environmental variables that influence the results—and therefore their accuracy—of these methods has rarely been explored. An approach to the selection of such variables is proposed and the criteria established for large-scale assessment of land, based on big data, for its suitability to maize (Zea mays L.) cultivation as a case study. The predicted suitability matched the past distribution of maize with an overall accuracy of 79% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.72. The land suitability for maize is likely to decrease markedly at low latitudes and even at mid latitudes. The total area suitable for maize globally and in most major maize-producing countries will decrease, the decrease being particularly steep in those regions optimally suited for maize at present. Compared with earlier research, the method proposed in the present paper is simple yet objective, comprehensive, and reliable for large-scale assessment. The findings of the study highlight the necessity of adopting relevant strategies to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change.


Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽  
David Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
Rosa María Mateos ◽  
Pablo Ezquerro

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.


2012 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 421-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Wang ◽  
Yong He ◽  
Budong Qian ◽  
Brian McConkey ◽  
Herb Cutforth ◽  
...  

Wang, H., He, Y., Qian, B., McConkey, B., Cutforth, H., McCaig, T., McLeod, G., Zentner, R., DePauw, R., Lemke, R., Brandt, K., Liu, T., Qin, X., White, J., Hunt, T. and Hoogenboom, G. 2012. Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan. Can. J. Plant Sci. 92: 421–425. This study assessed potential impacts of climate change on wheat production as a biofuel crop in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios (CGCM3 with the forcing scenarios of IPCC SRES A1B, A2 and B1) in the 2050s. Synthetic 300-yr weather data were generated by the AAFC stochastic weather generator for the baseline period (1961–1990) and each scenario. Compared with the baseline, precipitation is projected to increase in every month under all three scenarios except in July and August and in June for A2, when it is projected to decrease. Annual mean air temperature is projected to increase by 3.2, 3.6 and 2.7°C for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. The model predicted increases in biomass by 28, 12 and 16% without the direct effect of CO2 and 74, 55 and 41% with combined effects (climate and CO2) for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. Similar increases were found for grain yield. However, the occurrence of heat shock (>32°C) will increase during grain filling under the projected climate conditions and could cause severe yield reduction, which was not simulated by DSSAT-CSM. This implies that the future yield under climate scenarios might have been overestimated by DSSAT-CSM; therefore, model modification is required. Several measures, such as early seeding, must be taken to avoid heat damages and take the advantage of projected increases in temperature and precipitation in the early season.


Author(s):  
Albano Figueiredo ◽  
Carolina Alves ◽  
Joaquim Patriarca ◽  
Andreia Saavedra Cardoso ◽  
Paula Castro ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 470-477
Author(s):  
Alexander Zogas ◽  
Evsey Kosman ◽  
Marcelo Sternberg

Abstract Aims Climate change in the eastern Mediterranean region will have a strong impact on ecosystem functioning and plant community dynamics due to a reduction in annual rainfall and increased variability. We aim to understand the role of seed banks as potential buffers against climatic uncertainty determined by climate change. Methods We examined germination strategies of 18 common species present along an aridity gradient. Data were obtained from soil seed banks germinated during nine consecutive years from arid, semi-arid, Mediterranean and mesic Mediterranean ecosystems. At the semi-arid and Mediterranean sites, rainfall manipulations simulating 30% drought and 30% rainfall increase were applied. Germination strategies were tested under optimal irrigation conditions during three consecutive germination seasons to determine overall seed germinability in each soil sample. Changes in germination strategy were examined using a novel statistical approach that considers the climatic and biotic factors that may affect seed germinability. Important Findings The results showed that dominant species controlled their germination fractions by producing seeds with a different yearly germination fraction probability. The amount of rainfall under which the seeds were produced led to two major seed types with respect to germinability: high germinability, seeds leading to transient seed banks, and low germinability, seeds leading to persistent seed banks. We conclude that differential seed production among wet and dry years of both seed types creates a stable balance along the aridity gradient, enabling the soil seed bank to serve as a stabilizing mechanism buffering against rainfall unpredictability. Additionally, we present a general model of germination strategies of dominant annual species in Mediterranean and arid ecosystems that strengthens the notion of soil seed banks as buffers against climatic uncertainty induced by climate change in the region.


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