Recherche de tendances récentes dans les séquences sèches : cas des stations synoptiques du Bénin

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. C20A27-1-C20A27-17
Author(s):  
Darius B. A. Gnihatin ◽  
◽  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Aristide B. Akpo ◽  

The deficit of last decade rain in West Africa and particularly in Benin pushes us to make the analysis of tendencies of the dry sequences of the tabular stations from daily raining data. The general objective of this survey is the research of rupture and tendency in the dry sequence sets in the period from 1970 to 2009 from daily raining data of the tabular stations of Benin. We have extract of data daily raining of six stations of Benin, the maximal dry sequence length and the dry sequence average in the period from1970 to 2009 and we analyzed the variation of maxima of length of dry sequences and their average on the period from 1970 to 2009.Then, to deepen analyses of tendency, we achieved some statistical tests have been applied to the set of the maxima dry sequence with the help of the software Khronostat. From the results, we can retain the existence of a reduction tendency of the dry sequence with breakpoint in 2006 in the station’s Cotonou. In opposition, an increase tendency with breakpoint in 1978 in the station’s Natitingou. And, a stationary tendency without breakpoint in the set of maxima of dry sequence length to the station of Bohicon, Savè, Parakou and Kandi.

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 1999-2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Awolou Sossa ◽  
Brant Liebmann ◽  
Ileana Bladé ◽  
Dave Allured ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
...  

Abstract This study focuses on the impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)—as monitored by a well-known multivariate index—on large daily precipitation events in West Africa for the period 1981–2014. Two seasons are considered: the near-equatorial wet season in March–May (MAM) and the peak of the West African monsoon during July–September (JAS), when the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is at its most northerly position. Although the MJO-related interannual variation of seasonal mean rainfall is large, the focus here is on the impacts of the MJO on daily time scales because variations in the frequency of intense, short-term, flood-causing, rainfall events are more important for West African agriculture than variations in seasonal precipitation, particularly near the Guinean coast, where precipitation is abundant. Using composites based on thresholds of daily precipitation amounts, changes in mean precipitation and frequency of the heaviest daily events associated with the phase of the MJO are investigated. The expected modulation of mean rainfall by the MJO is much stronger during MAM than during JAS; yet the modulation of the largest events (i.e., daily rainfall rates above the 90th percentile) is comparable in both seasons. Conservative statistical tests of local and field significance indicate unambiguous impacts of the MJO of the expected sign during certain phases, but the nature of the impact depends on the local seasonal precipitation regime. For instance, in JAS, the early stages of the MJO increase the risk of flooding in the Sahel monsoon region while providing relief to the dry southern coast.


1991 ◽  
Vol 102 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 183-187
Author(s):  
O. T. Ogundipe ◽  
O. A. Olatunji
Keyword(s):  

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