ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY WITH THE ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (15) ◽  
pp. 299-312
Author(s):  
Özlem KARADAĞ AK
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of economic growth and inflation on unemployment for the period 2005:1- 2020:9 in Turkey by using ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag) model. In the study, firstly unit root tests were carried out to determine whether economic growth (ind) and inflation (cpi) have long and short-term effects on unemployment (unemp). Then, the ARDL method was used to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the series in the model where the unemployment rate is the dependent variable, the Industrial Production Index representing economic growth and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) representing inflation. Instead of GDP, the Industrial Production Index was preferred both to harmonize with the monthly data and to make a production-based analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was a statistically significant cointegration relationship between the variables, and the short-term relationship was analyzed with the error correction model (ECM). As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that there is a cointegration relationship between unemployment, inflation rate and economic growth in Turkey. According to the results of the analysis, negative between unemployment and industrial production index; It is seen that there is a positive relationship between unemployment and inflation.

Tax revenue and economic growth in developing country: an autoregressive distribution lags approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (54) ◽  
pp. 205-217
Author(s):  
Mnaku Honest Maganya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
The Government

AbstractTanzania, like most other developing countries, faces numerous economic challenges in striving to achieve sustainable economic growth and development through taxation. In the literature, the debate on how effective taxes are as a tool for promoting economic growth and economic development remains inconclusive, as various research have reported mixed effects of tax on economic growth. This article investigates the effect of taxation on economic growth in Tanzania using the recently developed technique of autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bounds testing procedure for the period from 1996 to 2019. Various preliminary tests were conducted including stationary tests as well as the pair-wise Granger causality test. According to the results obtained, domestic goods and services (TGS) taxes are positively related to GDP growth and are statistically significant at 1% level. Income taxes, on the other hand, were found to be negatively related to GDP growth and to be statistically significant at 5% level. The pair-wise Granger causality results indicated that there is bidirectional Granger causality between TGS and GDP growth at 1 % significance level. The government should aim at growing, nurturing and sustaining tax base to positively drive economic growth even further.

scholarly journals Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-examination of FDI and Growth in Vietnam

2013 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 94-113
Author(s):  
ANH PHẠM THẾ ◽  
ĐÀO NGUYỄN THỊ HỒNG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This study examines the econometric and empirical evidence of both causal and long-run relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Vietnam, covering a time span of 21 years from 1991 to 2012. The recent and robust methodology of bounds testing or autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) approach to Cointegration is employed for the empirical analysis. This technique can capture both short-run and long-run dynamics of variables, particularly in small sample size cases. The findings indicate the existence of a Cointegration relationship between the two time series and a modest adjustment process from short-run to long-run equilibrium. Further results from Granger causality tests conducted within the error correction model confirm a bi-directional causality between economic growth and FDI over the study period.

scholarly journals Kondisi makroekonomi dan kinerja perbankan di Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-28
Author(s):  
Irma Febriana Mk ◽  
Nurbetty Herlina Sitorus ◽  
Rizka Malia
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship

The purpose of this study was to see how the long-term and short-term relationship between banking performance and macroeconomic variables. The analysis method used is the vector error correction model (VECM) with the variables ROA, BOPO, LDR, industrial production index, CPI, and BI rate. The results of this study indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between ROA and industrial production index in the long run and a significant negative relationship between ROA and CPI in the long and short term. There is a significant negative relationship between BOPO and the industrial production index in the long and short term. LDR has a significant negative relationship with all macro variables in the long term whereas, in the short term, LDR has a significant negative relationship with the CPI.  Keywords: Banking performance, Macroeconomic, Vector error correction models

Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Tunisia an ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-112
Author(s):  
Radhia Amairia ◽  
Bouzid Amaira
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model

The achievement of an effective infrastructure, reliable and fair, is essential for economic growth. Indeed, the transport infrastructure is essential to the prosperity of regions. To investigate the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth, we use the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), we find that transport infrastructure is cointegrated with economic performance, indicating the affirmed presence of long-run equilibrium relationships among them. We use annual data for the period from 1980 to 2013. The study found that the transport infrastructure and investment in transport infrastructure in Tunisia have a significant positive contribution to growth, which shows that each impact is strong and statistically significant. The Tunisian experience suggests that it is necessary to design an economic policy that will improve the transport infrastructure and to increase investment made to the sector for sustainable economic growth in Tunisia. It is necessary to improve the existing road and rail networks. JEL Classification: F63, L91, R41

scholarly journals THE DETERMINANTS FACTORS OF PROFITABILITY ISLAMIC BANK IN INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Herawati Purwasih ◽  
Wisnu Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Islamic Bank ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui faktor yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan dari profitabilitas bank syariah di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan variabel makroekonomi dan variabel perbankan periode Januari 2006 – Desember 2019. Variabel makroekonomi yang digunakan adalah Industrial Production Index, Inflasi, Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhdap dollar, suku bunga. Sedangkan variabel perbankan yang digunakan adalah Capital Adequacy Ratio, Non Performing Financing, Financing to Deposite Ratio, Biaya Operational dan Pendapatan Operational, serta variabel return on asset. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah dalam jangka pendek hanya variabel Nilai Tukar, Biaya Operational dan Pendapatan Operational serta Non Performing Financing yang berpengaruh terhadap Return on Asset. Variabel Industrial Production Index, Inflasi, suku bunga, Capital Adequacy Ratio, dan Financing to Deposite Ratio tidak berpengaruh terhadap return on asset dalam jangka pendek. Kemudian dalam jangka panjang hasilnya sama yaitu hanya variabel Nilai Tukar, Biaya Operational dan Pendapatan Operational serta Non Performing Financing yang berpengaruh terhadap Return on Asset. Variabel Industrial Production Index, Inflasi, suku bunga, Capital Adequacy Ratio, dan Financing to Deposite Ratio juga tidak berpengaruh terhadap return on asset dalam jangka panjang. Variabel nilai tukar merupakan variabel yang paling berpengaruh dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang terhadap profitabilitas of Islamic bank.  Dengan demikian penelitian ini diharapkan bisa membantu perbankan syariah dalam menganalisa faktor yang mempengaruhi profitabilitas perbankan syariah di Indonesia.  The purpose of this research is to find out the determinant factors that the growth of Islamic bank profitability in Indonesia. This research uses a quantitative approach with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The data used is monthly data of macroeconomic variables and banking variables for the period January 2006 – December 2019. Macroeconomic variables used are the Industrial Production Index, Inflation, Rupiah Exchange Rate with the dollar, interest rate. While the banking variables used are Capital Adequacy Ratio, Non-Performing Financing, Financing to Deposit Ratio, Operational Cost and Operational Income, as well as variable return on assets. The result of this study is that in the short term only variable Exchange Rates, Operational Costs, and Operational Income and Non-Performing Financing affect Return on Assets. Variable Industrial Production Index, Inflation, interest rates, Capital Adequacy Ratio, and Financing to Deposite Ratio have no effect on return on assets in the short term. Then in the long run the result is the same is that only variable Exchange Rates, Operational Costs, and Operational Income and Non-Performing Financing affect the return on assets. Variable Industrial Production Index, Inflation, interest rates, Capital Adequacy Ratio, and Financing to Deposite Ratio also have no effect on return on assets in the long term. Exchange rate variables are the most influential variables in the short and long term on the profitability of Islamic banks. Thus, this research is expected to assist Sharia banking in analyzing factors that affect the profitability of Sharia banking in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Analisis Dinamis Hubungan Antara Harga Saham dan Variabel Makroekonomi

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-90
Author(s):  
Paulina Harun
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Industrial Production Index

Previous research has proven the influence between interest rates, inflation, exchange rate, trade balance, industrial production index on stock prices. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach and the 13 companies listed on the IDX, in this study, we will look deeper into the dynamics of long-term and short-term relationships for the aforementioned variables. The research period starts from January 2015 to December 2019, during which time there were many global upheavals that had a considerable impact on the Indonesian economy, through the ARDL model of interest rates, inflation, exchange rate, trade balance, industrial production index, and stock prices are proven to have long-term cointegration or move together in the long term. But not only in the long run, but these seven variables also have a dynamic short-term relationship that has a sufficient speed of adjustment towards equilibrium per month.

scholarly journals Dampak Makro Ekonomi dan Financial Performance Terhadap Market Share Perbankan Syari’ah di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Muh. K. Fatihin, Eko Siswahto, Sulistya Rusgianto, Nizar. H. Hadi
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Banking Market

Islamic banking market share is the biggest contributor on the development of the Islamic financial market share. This study aims to comprehensively examine the sharia banking market share growth in short-term and long-term dynamic interactions. The independent variables used in this study are inflation, industrial production index (IPI), intrest rate, Return of Assets (ROA) and financing to Deposite Ratio (FDR). The method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) with monthly data from 2011-2018. The results of this study indicate that interest rates have a significant negative effect on Islamic banking market share in the short and long term. Meanwhile, inflation, ROA, FDR have a positive effect on the sharia banking market share in the short term. IPI's industrial production index as a proxy for domestic product (gross domestic product) has no short-term and long-term impact. The results of this study have important implications for the central bank and the banking sector.

scholarly journals CO2 Emission, Energy Consumption and Economic Development in Malaysia

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 674-678
Author(s):  
Hamizah bt Muhyidin ◽  
Md. Khaled Saifullah ◽  
Yap Su Fei
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Long Run

Environmental awareness and its relation to the development of economy have garnered increased attention in recent years. This study analyzes the long-run relationship between environment degradation, economic growth, total energy consumption and industrial production index growth in Malaysia from year 1970 to 2012. The time series data are estimated using Johansen and Julies Cointegration test and VECM Granger causality test. The empirical analysis suggests a long-run cointegration relationship between all series. Granger causality analysis indicates strong evidence of uni-directional Granger causality running from economic growth and industrial production index growth to total energy consumption in the long-run. Also, the result shows evidence of a bi-directional Granger causality between total energy consumption and CO2 emission. This situation suggests that a pollution abatement policies and higher investment to control for CO2 emission will not jeopardize the economic sustainability and industry output in the long run. This study suggests that previous policies should be complimented with increasing the efficiency of energy use by employing a fuel balancing strategies and promoting the use of renewable energy resources like bio-fuel, solar energy and wind.

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