scholarly journals Will COVID-19 Vaccination Be Successful Without Social Distancing? A Simulation of an Outbreak in Sri Lanka

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
London School ◽  
Pharmacological Interventions ◽  
Online Application ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Case Number ◽  
Beta Version

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is causing morbidity, mortality and economic damage in an unprecedented manner across the world. Many non-pharmacological interventions such as restricting community mobility, social distancing, handwashing and face mask use have been carried out to prevent COVID-19. Promising vaccine results and their approval for emergency use in some countries has created much interest in their use as the ultimate solution to control the outbreak at global level, Sri Lanka being no exception. Objective of this study was to compare the success of a COVID-19 vaccination with or without social distancing during a simulated outbreak of widespread transmission of COVID-19 in Sri Lanka. The beta version of the online application of the mathematical model developed by the London School of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed Model was used for the simulation. The results show that COVID-19 vaccination in Sri Lanka without social distancing is unlikely to reduce case number, symptomatic admissions or deaths. In the absence of social distancing, making vaccines available earlier, faster or in increased quantities will not contribute to any meaningful reduction of the disease outcomes. The continued adherence to social distancing is recommended for any benefits of vaccination to be meaningful.

scholarly journals Examining the interplay between face mask usage, asymptomatic transmission, and social distancing on the spread of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Catching ◽  
Sara Capponi ◽  
Ming Te Yeh ◽  
Simone Bianco ◽  
Raul Andino
Keyword(s):  
Social Distance ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
The Face ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
High Virus

AbstractCOVID-19’s high virus transmission rates have caused a pandemic that is exacerbated by the high rates of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections. These factors suggest that face masks and social distance could be paramount in containing the pandemic. We examined the efficacy of each measure and the combination of both measures using an agent-based model within a closed space that approximated real-life interactions. By explicitly considering different fractions of asymptomatic individuals, as well as a realistic hypothesis of face masks protection during inhaling and exhaling, our simulations demonstrate that a synergistic use of face masks and social distancing is the most effective intervention to curb the infection spread. To control the pandemic, our models suggest that high adherence to social distance is necessary to curb the spread of the disease, and that wearing face masks provides optimal protection even if only a small portion of the population comply with social distance. Finally, the face mask effectiveness in curbing the viral spread is not reduced if a large fraction of population is asymptomatic. Our findings have important implications for policies that dictate the reopening of social gatherings.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large City ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Variable Compliance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

scholarly journals Social distancing and its impact on flattening the COVID-19 curve in Sri Lanka

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Sumudu Hewage ◽  
Nuwan Wickramasinghe ◽  
Surangi Jayakody ◽  
Dulani Samaranayake ◽  
Shamini Prathapan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Social Distancing

Implications of COVID–19 Outbreak on the Construction and Property Development Sector in the South-East Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Uche Felix Ikechukwu ◽  
Chinwe Ngozi Odimegwu
Keyword(s):  
Labour Force ◽  
Correlation Method ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
The South ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Property Development ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Government

Pandemic like Covid-19 usually affects the productivity of man, let alone when there is a consequent total lock-down effect in the society. Construction and property development sector among others therefore is bound to suffer enormously since it involves the services of variety of labour force. The study therefore explores the implication and consequences of the Covid-19 outbreak on the construction and property development sector in the south eastern region of Nigeria. Data were collected electronically using field survey method of research design from the sampled respondents of building professionals in the area. Tau-b correlation method was adopted in the statistical analyses to determine the most commonly observed Covid-19 measures, most common vulnerable factors leading to spread and contraction of the pandemic in the study. Findings reveal that majority of the establishment in the area shutdown their operations according to the directive of the government; while about the three quarter of these establishments who were in active operations are observed as public owned corporations or projects. It is also discovered that hand washing, wearing of face mask and social distancing were mostly complied with. On the other hand, economic hardship, inflation, and difficulty in accessibility to fund noticeably affect the flow and progress of work projects. Despite the considerable compliance with the preventive measures, there is no significant relationship between conformity to social distancing and shut-down policy, and the volume of construction works in progress during the shut-down in the study area. In conclusion therefore, it is recommended that shut-down of economic activities should not be total but, in part and alternate form among the various sections of the economic activities within the society. Attention to the operations of the private construction and property development projects like in the and the public structure is also recommended for a more holistic arrangement, towards cushioning the effect of similar economic crisis occasioned by any pandemic like Covid-19 in general.

scholarly journals The Timing and Intensity of Social Distancing to Flatten the COVID-19 Curve: The Case of Spain

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (19) ◽  
pp. 7283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Casares ◽  
Hashmat Khan
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
The State ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
The Impact

The continued spread of COVID-19 suggests a significant possibility of reimposing the lockdowns and stricter social distancing similar to the early phase of pandemic control. We present a dynamic model to quantify the impact of isolation for the contagion curves. The model is calibrated to the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain to study the effects of the isolation enforcement following the declaration of the state of alarm (14 March 2020). The simulations indicate that both the timing and the intensity of the isolation enforcement are crucial for the COVID-19 spread. For example, a 4-day earlier intervention for social distancing would have reduced the number of COVID-19 infected people by 67%. The model also informs us that the isolation enforcement does not delay the peak day of the epidemic but slows down its end. When relaxing social distancing, a reduction of the contagion probability (with the generalization of preventive actions, such as face mask wearing and hands sanitizing) is needed to overcome the effect of a rise in the number of interpersonal encounters. We report a threshold level for the contagion pace to avoid a second COVID-19 outbreak in Spain.

scholarly journals Early estimates of COVID-19 infections in small, medium and large population clusters

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. e003055
Author(s):  
Amir Siraj ◽  
Alemayehu Worku ◽  
Kiros Berhane ◽  
Maru Aregawi ◽  
Munir Eshetu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Population ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Local Context ◽  
African Region ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionSince its emergence in late December 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly developed into a pandemic in mid of March with many countries suffering heavy human loss and declaring emergency conditions to contain its spread. The impact of the disease, while it has been relatively low in the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as of May 2020, is feared to be potentially devastating given the less developed and fragmented healthcare system in the continent. In addition, most emergency measures practised may not be effective due to their limited affordability as well as the communal way people in SSA live in relative isolation in clusters of large as well as smaller population centres.MethodsTo address the acute need for estimates of the potential impacts of the disease once it sweeps through the African region, we developed a process-based model with key parameters obtained from recent studies, taking local context into consideration. We further used the model to estimate the number of infections within a year of sustained local transmissions under scenarios that cover different population sizes, urban status, effectiveness and coverage of social distancing, contact tracing and usage of cloth face mask.ResultsWe showed that when implemented early, 50% coverage of contact tracing and face mask, with 33% effective social distancing policies can bringing the epidemic to a manageable level for all population sizes and settings we assessed. Relaxing of social distancing in urban settings from 33% to 25% could be matched by introduction and maintenance of face mask use at 43%.ConclusionsIn SSA countries with limited healthcare workforce, hospital resources and intensive care units, a robust system of social distancing, contact tracing and face mask use could yield in outcomes that prevent several millions of infections and thousands of deaths across the continent.

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