scholarly journals Enhancing Delphi Method with Algorithmic Estimates for Software Effort Estimation: An Experimental Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (04) ◽  
pp. 01-18
Author(s):  
Tharwon Arnuphaptrairong
Keyword(s):  
Delphi Method ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Expert Judgment ◽  
Delphi Process ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Effort Estimation ◽  
Software Effort Estimation ◽  
Delphi Experiment ◽  
Individual Expert

Literature review shows that more accurate software effort and cost estimation methods are needed for software project management success. Expert judgment and algorithmic model estimation are two predominant methods discussed in the literature. Both are reported almost at the comparable level of accuracy performance. The combination of the two methods is suggested to increase the estimation accuracy. Delphi method is an encouraging structured expert judgment method for software effort group estimation but surprisingly little was reported in the literature. The objective of this study is to test if the Delphi estimates will be more accurate if the participants in the Delphi process are exposed to the algorithmic estimates. A Delphi experiment where the participants in the Delphi process were exposed to three algorithmic estimates –Function Points, COCOMO estimates, and Use Case Points, was therefore conducted. The findings show that the Delphi estimates are slightly more accurate than the statistical combination of individual expert estimates, but they are not statistically significant. However, the Delphi estimates are statistically significant more accurate than the individual estimates. The results also show that the Delphi estimates are slightly less optimistic than the statistical combination of individual expert estimates but they are not statistically significant either. The adapted Delphi experiment shows a promising technique for improving the software cost estimation accuracy.

Regression Analysis Based Software Effort Estimation Method

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (05) ◽  
pp. 807-826 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatih Yücalar ◽  
Deniz Kilinc ◽  
Emin Borandag ◽  
Akin Ozcift
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Development Effort ◽  
Software Project ◽  
Effort Estimation ◽  
Software Effort Estimation

Estimating the development effort of a software project in the early stages of the software life cycle is a significant task. Accurate estimates help project managers to overcome the problems regarding budget and time overruns. This paper proposes a new multiple linear regression analysis based effort estimation method, which has brought a different perspective to the software effort estimation methods and increased the success of software effort estimation processes. The proposed method is compared with standard Use Case Point (UCP) method, which is a well-known method in this area, and simple linear regression based effort estimation method developed by Nassif et al. In order to evaluate and compare the proposed method, the data of 10 software projects developed by four well-established software companies in Turkey were collected and datasets were created. When effort estimations obtained from datasets and actual efforts spent to complete the projects are compared with each other, it has been observed that the proposed method has higher effort estimation accuracy compared to the other methods.

F-ONTOCOM: A Fuzzified Cost Estimation Approach for Ontology Engineering

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonika Malik ◽  
Sarika Jain
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Ontology Engineering ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Effort Estimation ◽  
Wide Scale ◽  
Ontology Building ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Essential Prerequisite ◽  
Estimation Models

Estimating effort is an essential prerequisite for the wide-scale dispersal of ontologies. Not much attention has yet been paid to this essential aspect of ontology building. To date, ONTOCOM is the most prominent model for ontology cost estimation. Many factors influencing the building cost of an ontology are depicted by linguistic terms like Very High, High, . . . and so on; making them vague and indistinct. This fuzziness is quite uncertain and must be taken into consideration. The available effort estimation models do not consider the uncertainty of fuzziness. In this work, we propose an effort estimation methodology for ontology engineering using Fuzzy Logic i.e. F-ONTOCOM (Fuzzy-ONTOCOM) to overcome of uncertainty and imprecision. We have defined the corresponding Fuzzy sets for each effort multiplier and its associated linguistic value, and represented the same by triangular membership functions. F-ONTOCOM is applied to a dataset of 148 ontology projects and evaluated over various evaluation criteria. FONTOCOM outperforms the existing effort-estimation models; it has been concluded that F-ONTOCOM improves the cost estimation accuracy and estimated cost is very close to actual cost.

scholarly journals Applying COCOMO II for a DO-178C Safety-Critical Software Effort Estimation

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas Pereira dos Santos ◽  
Maurício Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Development Effort ◽  
Effort Estimation ◽  
Software Effort Estimation ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Software Application ◽  
Safety Critical ◽  
Software Development Effort ◽  
Software Practitioners ◽  
Cocomo Ii

This paper provides a real example of applying COCOMO II as an estimation technique for the required software development effort in a safety-critical software application project following the DO-178C processes. The main goal and contribution of the case study is to support the research on software effort estimation and to provide software practitioners with useful data based on a real project. We applied the method as it is, by correlating the effort multiplier factors with the complexity and objectives introduced by the DO-178C level A application, resulting in an estimated effort. The rationales for each scale factor and effort multiplier selection were also described in detail. By comparing the estimated values with the actual required data, we found a magnitude of relative error (MRE) of 40% and provided alternatives for future work in order to increase the effort estimation accuracy in safety-critical software projects.

scholarly journals Tuning of Cost Drivers by Significance Occurrences and Their Calibration with Novel Software Effort Estimation Method

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brajesh Kumar Singh ◽  
Shailesh Tiwari ◽  
K. K. Mishra ◽  
A. K. Misra
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Method ◽  
Project Work ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Effort Estimation ◽  
Software Effort Estimation ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Cost Drivers ◽  
Binary Genetic Algorithm ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Engineering Projects

Estimation is an important part of software engineering projects, and the ability to produce accurate effort estimates has an impact on key economic processes, including budgeting and bid proposals and deciding the execution boundaries of the project. Work in this paper explores the interrelationship among different dimensions of software projects, namely, project size, effort, and effort influencing factors. The study aims at providing better effort estimate on the parameters of modified COCOMO along with the detailed use of binary genetic algorithm as a novel optimization algorithm. Significance of 15 cost drivers can be shown by their impact on MMRE of efforts on original 63 NASA datasets. Proposed method is producing tuned values of the cost drivers, which are effective enough to improve the productivity of the projects. Prediction at different levels of MRE for each project reflects the percentage of projects with desired accuracy. Furthermore, this model is validated on two different datasets which represents better estimation accuracy as compared to the COCOMO 81 based NASA 63 and NASA 93 datasets.

scholarly journals Analyse der Methoden zur Aufwand- und Kostenschätzung eingesetzt in IT-Projekten

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-49
Author(s):  
Alexandru Drăgan ◽  
Uwe Götze
Keyword(s):  
Project Management ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Management Teams ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Effort Estimation ◽  
It Projects ◽  
Research Results

This paper aims to provide a comparison of different methods for the process of effort and cost estimation used by an IT company in IT-projects. Based on a literature review on the topic of effort estimation methods, the tool for effort and cost estimation operated by project management teams is getting investigated for the purpose of further improvement. The findings obtained are derived and presented to the involved parties as well as to other stakeholders that might benefit from this research results.

Cost Estimation in a Capacitated Environment

2010 ◽  
pp. 16-88
Author(s):  
Mark Eklin ◽  
Yohanan Arzi ◽  
Avraham Shtub
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Unit Cost ◽  
Setup Time ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Process Characteristics ◽  
Machine Loading ◽  
Cost Estimation Model ◽  
Rough Cut

In this chapter we discuss rough-cut cost estimation in a capacitated made-to-order environment. We develop models that analyze the effects of shop workload, machine loading, and outsourcing decisions on product unit cost estimation. A comparative study of five alternative rough-cut cost estimation methods is presented. An activity based cost estimation model, which takes into account stochastic process characteristics as well as setup time, machine failures and product yields, was developed. The activity based cost estimation was found to perform better than the traditional cost estimation. We found that by taking into account the capacity and stochastic nature of the parameters, the cost estimation accuracy is improved significantly.

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