scholarly journals Long-term studies of MLT summer length definitions based on mean zonal wind features observed for more than one solar cycle at mid- and high-latitudes in the northern hemisphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliana Jaen ◽  
Toralf Renkwitz ◽  
Jorge L. Chau ◽  
Maosheng He ◽  
Peter Hoffmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. Specular meteor radars (SMRs) and partial reflection radars (PRRs) have been observing mesospheric winds for more than a solar cycle over Germany (~54 °N) and northern Norway (~69 °N). This work investigates the mesospheric mean zonal wind and the zonal mean geostrophic zonal wind from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) over these two regions between 2004 and 2020. Our study focuses on the summer when strong planetary waves are absent and the stratospheric and tropospheric conditions are relatively stable. We establish two definitions of the summer length according to the zonal wind reversals: (1) the mesosphere and lower thermosphere summer length (MLT-SL) using SMR and PRR winds, and (2) the mesosphere summer length (M-SL) using PRR and MLS. Under both definitions, the summer begins around April and ends around mid-September. The largest year to year variability is found in the summer beginning in both definitions, particularly at high-latitudes, possibly due to the influence of the polar vortex. At high-latitudes, the year 2004 has a longer summer length compared to the mean value for MLT-SL, as well as 2012 for both definitions. The M-SL exhibits an increasing trend over the years, while MLT-SL does not have a well-defined trend. We explore a possible influence of solar activity, as well as large-scale atmospheric influences (e.g. quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO), El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), major sudden stratospheric warming events). We complement our work with an extended time series of 31 years at mid-latitudes using only PRR winds. In this case, the summer length shows a breakpoint, suggesting a non-uniform trend, and periods similar to those known for ENSO and QBO.

scholarly journals Trends and variability in stratospheric mixing: 1979–2005

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 6189-6228 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Garny ◽  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
M. Dameris
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Lyapunov Exponents ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Degradation Products ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Long Term Changes

Abstract. Changes in climate are likely to drive changes in stratospheric mixing with associated implications for changes in transport of ozone from tropical source regions to higher latitudes, transport of water vapour and source gas degradation products from the tropical tropopause layer into the mid-latitude lower stratosphere, and changes in the meridional distribution of long-lived trace gases. To diagnose long-term changes in stratospheric mixing, global monthly fields of Lyapunov exponents were calculated on the 450 K, 550 K, and 650 K isentropic surfaces by applying a trajectory model to wind fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses over the period 1979 to 2005. Potential underlying geophysical drivers of trends and variability in these mixing fields were investigated by applying a least squares regression model, which included basis functions for a mean annual cycle, seasonally dependent linear trends, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the solar cycle, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to zonal mean time series of the Lyapunov exponents. Long-term positive trends in mixing are apparent over southern middle to high latitudes at 450 K through most of the year, while negative trends over southern high latitudes are apparent at 650 K from May to August. Wintertime negative trends in mixing over northern mid-latitudes are apparent at 550 K and 650 K. Over low latitudes, within 40° of the equator, the QBO exerts a strong influence on mixing at all three analysis levels. This QBO influence is strongly modulated by the annual cycle and shows a phase shift across the subtropical mixing barrier. Solar cycle and ENSO influences on mixing are generally not significant. The diagnosed long-term changes in mixing should aid the interpretation of trends in stratospheric trace gases.

scholarly journals Global distribution of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature variations

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 3411-3449 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Steinbrecht ◽  
B. Hassler ◽  
H. Claude ◽  
P. Winkler ◽  
R. S. Stolarski
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Vortex Strength ◽  
Low Latitudes

Abstract. This study gives an overview of interannual variations of total ozone and 50hPa temperature. It is based on newer and longer records from the 1979 to 2001 Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (TOMS) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instruments, and on US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses. Multiple linear least squares regression is used to quantify various natural and anthropogenic influences. For most influences the total ozone and 50hPa temperature responses look very similar, reflecting a very close coupling. As a rule of thumb, a 10 Dobson Unit (DU) change in total ozone corresponds to a 1K change of 50hPa temperature. Large influences come from the linear trend term, up to −30 DU or −1.5 K/decade, from terms related to polar vortex strength, up to 50 DU or 5 K (typical, minimum to maximum), from tropospheric meteorology, up to 30 DU or 3 K, or from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), up to 25 DU or 2.5 K. The 11-year solar cycle, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), up to 10 DU or 1 K, are somewhat smaller influences. Stratospheric aerosol after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption lead to warming up to 3 K at low latitudes and to ozone depletion up to 40 DU at high latitudes. Response to QBO, polar vortex strength, and to a lesser degree to ENSO, exhibit an inverse correlation between low latitudes and higher latitudes. Responses to the solar cycle or 400 hPa temperature, however, have the same sign over most of the globe. Responses are usually zonally symmetric at low and mid-latitudes, but asymmetric at high latitudes. There, solar cycle, QBO or ENSO influence position and strength of the stratospheric anti-cyclones over the Aleutians and south of Australia.

scholarly journals Evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex edge intensity and duration in the Southern hemisphere over the 1979–2020 period

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey Lecouffe ◽  
Sophie Godin-Beekmann ◽  
Andrea Pazmiño ◽  
Alain Hauchecorne
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Onset Date ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Lower Variability

Abstract. The intensity and position of the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex edge is evaluated as a function of equivalent latitude over the 1979–2020 period on three isentropic levels (475 K, 550 K and 675 K) from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. The study also includes an analysis of the onset and breakup dates of the polar vortex, which are determined from wind thresholds (e.g. 15.2 m.s−1, 20 m.s−1and 25 m.s−1) along the vortex edge. The vortex edge is stronger in late winter, over September–October – November with the period of strongest intensity occurring later at the lowermost level. A lower variability of the edge position is observed during the same period. Long-term increase of the vortex edge intensity and break-up date is observed over the 1979–1999 period, linked to the increase of the ozone hole. Long-term decrease of the vortex onset date related to the 25 m.s−1wind threshold is also observed at 475 K during this period. The solar cycle and to a lower extent the quasi-biennal oscillation (QBO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulate the inter-annual evolution of the strength of the vortex edge and the vortex breakup dates. Stronger vortex edge and longer vortex duration is observed in solar minimum (minSC) years, with the QBO and ENSO further modulating the solar cycle influence, especially at 475 K and 550 K: during West QBO (wQBO) phases, the difference between vortex edge intensity for minSC and maxSC years is smaller than during East QBO (eQBO) phases. The polar vortex edge is stronger and lasts longer for maxSC/wQBO years than for maxSC/eQBO years. ENSO has a weaker impact but the vortex edge is somewhat stronger during cold ENSO phases for both minSC and maxSC years.

scholarly journals Connection between the length of day and wind measurements in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere at mid- and high latitudes

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Sven Wilhelm ◽  
Gunter Stober ◽  
Vivien Matthias ◽  
Christoph Jacobi ◽  
Damian J. Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Earth’S Rotation ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Earth's Rotation ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere

Abstract. This work presents a connection between the density variation within the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) and changes in the intensity of solar radiation. On a seasonal timescale, these changes take place due to the revolution of the Earth around the Sun. While the Earth, during the northern-hemispheric (NH) winter, is closer to the Sun, the upper mesosphere expands due to an increased radiation intensity, which results in changes in density at these heights. These density variations, i.e., a vertical redistribution of atmospheric mass, have an effect on the rotation rate of Earth's upper atmosphere owing to angular momentum conservation. In order to test this effect, we applied a theoretical model, which shows a decrease in the atmospheric rotation speed of about ∼4 m s−1 at a latitude of 45∘ in the case of a density change of 1 % between 70 and 100 km. To support this statement, we compare the wind variability obtained from meteor radar (MR) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations with fluctuations in the length of a day (LOD). Changes in the LOD on timescales of a year and less are primarily driven by tropospheric large-scale geophysical processes and their impact on the Earth's rotation. A global increase in lower-atmospheric eastward-directed winds leads, due to friction with the Earth's surface, to an acceleration of the Earth's rotation by up to a few milliseconds per rotation. The LOD shows an increase during northern winter and decreases during summer, which corresponds to changes in the MLT density due to the Earth–Sun movement. Within the MLT the mean zonal wind shows similar fluctuations to the LOD on annual scales as well as longer time series, which are connected to the seasonal wind regime as well as to density changes excited by variations in the solar radiation. A direct correlation between the local measured winds and the LOD on shorter timescales cannot clearly be identified, due to stronger influences of other natural oscillations on the wind. Further, we show that, even after removing the seasonal and 11-year solar cycle variations, the mean zonal wind and the LOD are connected by analyzing long-term tendencies for the years 2005–2016.

scholarly journals Trends and variability in stratospheric mixing: 1979–2005

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (21) ◽  
pp. 5611-5624 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Garny ◽  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
M. Dameris
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Lyapunov Exponents ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Degradation Products ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Long Term Changes

Abstract. Changes in climate are likely to drive changes in stratospheric mixing with associated implications for changes in transport of ozone from tropical source regions to higher latitudes, transport of water vapour and source gas degradation products from the tropical tropopause layer into the mid-latitude lower stratosphere, and changes in the meridional distribution of long-lived trace gases. To diagnose long-term changes in stratospheric mixing, global monthly fields of Lyapunov exponents were calculated on the 450 K, 550 K, and 650 K isentropic surfaces by applying a trajectory model to wind fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses over the period 1979 to 2005. Potential underlying geophysical drivers of trends and variability in these mixing fields were investigated by applying a least squares regression model, which included basis functions for a mean annual cycle, seasonally dependent linear trends, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the solar cycle, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to zonal mean time series of the Lyapunov exponents. Long-term positive trends in mixing are apparent over southern middle to high latitudes at 450 K through most of the year, while negative trends over southern high latitudes are apparent at 650 K from May to August. Wintertime negative trends in mixing over northern mid-latitudes are apparent at 550 K and 650 K. Over low latitudes, within 40° of the equator, the QBO exerts a strong influence on mixing at all three analysis levels. This QBO influence is strongly modulated by the annual cycle and shows a phase shift across the subtropical mixing barrier. Solar cycle and ENSO influences on mixing are generally not significant. The diagnosed long-term changes in mixing should aid the interpretation of trends in stratospheric trace gases.

scholarly journals Global distribution of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature variations

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 1421-1438 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Steinbrecht ◽  
B. Hassler ◽  
H. Claude ◽  
P. Winkler ◽  
R. S. Stolarski
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Vortex Strength ◽  
Low Latitudes

Abstract. This study gives an overview of interannual variations of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature. It is based on newer and longer records from the 1979 to 2001 Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (TOMS) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instruments, and on US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses. Multiple linear least squares regression is used to attribute variations to various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables. Usually, maps of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature variations look very similar, reflecting a very close coupling between the two. As a rule of thumb, a 10 Dobson Unit (DU) change in total ozone corresponds to a 1 K change of 50 hPa temperature. Large variations come from the linear trend term, up to -30 DU or -1.5 K/decade, from terms related to polar vortex strength, up to 50 DU or 5 K (typical, minimum to maximum), from tropospheric meteorology, up to 30 DU or 3 K, or from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), up to 25 DU or 2.5 K. The 11-year solar cycle, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K, or El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), up to 10 DU or 1 K, are contributing smaller variations. Stratospheric aerosol after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption lead to warming up to 3 K at low latitudes and to ozone depletion up to 40 DU at high latitudes. Variations attributed to QBO, polar vortex strength, and to a lesser degree to ENSO, exhibit an inverse correlation between low latitudes and higher latitudes. Variations related to the solar cycle or 400 hPa temperature, however, have the same sign over most of the globe. Variations are usually zonally symmetric at low and mid-latitudes, but asymmetric at high latitudes. There, position and strength of the stratospheric anti-cyclones over the Aleutians and south of Australia appear to vary with the phases of solar cycle, QBO or ENSO.

Long-term dynamics and destruction of marsh vegetation in the Kolokolkova Bay of the Barents Sea

2012 ◽  
pp. 66-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. A. Lavrinenko ◽  
O. V. Lavrinenko ◽  
D. V. Dobrynin
Keyword(s):  
Species Composition ◽  
Plant Communities ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Marsh Vegetation ◽  
Composition And Structure ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Species Composition And Structure

The satellite images show that the area of marshes in the Kolokolkova bay was notstable during the period from 1973 up to 2011. Until 2010 it varied from 357 to 636 ha. After a severe storm happened on July 24–25, 2010 the total area of marshes was reduced up to 43–50 ha. The mean value of NDVI for studied marshes, reflecting the green biomass, varied from 0.13 to 0.32 before the storm in 2010, after the storm the NDVI decreased to 0.10, in 2011 — 0.03. A comparative analysis of species composition and structure of plant communities described in 2002 and 2011, allowed to evaluate the vegetation changes of marshes of the different topographic levels. They are fol­lowing: a total destruction of plant communities of the ass. Puccinellietum phryganodis and ass. Caricetum subspathaceae on low and middle marches; increasing role of halophytic species in plant communities of the ass. Caricetum glareosae vic. Calamagrostis deschampsioides subass. typicum on middle marches; some changes in species composition and structure of plant communities of the ass. Caricetum glareosae vic. Calamagrostis deschampsioides subass. festucetosum rubrae on high marches and ass. Parnassio palustris–Salicetum reptantis in transition zone between marches and tundra without changes of their syntaxonomy; a death of moss cover in plant communities of the ass. Caricetum mackenziei var. Warnstorfia exannulata on brackish coastal bogs. The possible reasons of dramatic vegetation dynamics are discussed. The dating of the storm makes it possible to observe the directions and rates of the succession of marches vegetation.

scholarly journals 14C Release in Various Chemical Forms With Gaseous Effluents From the Paks Nuclear Power Plant

Radiocarbon ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 31 (03) ◽  
pp. 754-761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ede Hertelendi ◽  
György Uchrin ◽  
Peter Ormai
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Liquid Scintillation ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Scintillation Counting ◽  
Pressurized Water ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Water Reactors

We present results of airborne 14C emission measurements from the Paks PWR nuclear power plant. Long-term release of 14C in the form of carbon dioxide or carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons were simultaneously measured. The results of internal gas-proportional and liquid scintillation counting agree well with theoretical assessments of 14C releases from pressurized water reactors. The mean value of the 14C concentration in discharged air is 130Bqm-3 and the normalized release is equal to 740GBq/GWe · yr. > 95% of 14C released is in the form of hydrocarbons, ca 4% is apportioned to CO2, and <1% to CO. Tree-ring measurements were also made and indicated a minute increase of 14C content in the vicinity of the nuclear power plant.

scholarly journals Explaining the trends and variability in the United States tornado records using climate teleconnections and shifts in observational practices

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Niloufar Nouri ◽  
Naresh Devineni ◽  
Valerie Were ◽  
Reza Khanbilvardi
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Cyclical Variability ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractThe annual frequency of tornadoes during 1950–2018 across the major tornado-impacted states were examined and modeled using anthropogenic and large-scale climate covariates in a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. Anthropogenic factors include increases in population density and better detection systems since the mid-1990s. Large-scale climate variables include El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The model provides a robust way of estimating the response coefficients by considering pooling of information across groups of states that belong to Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and Other States, thereby reducing their uncertainty. The influence of the anthropogenic factors and the large-scale climate variables are modeled in a nested framework to unravel secular trend from cyclical variability. Population density explains the long-term trend in Dixie Alley. The step-increase induced due to the installation of the Doppler Radar systems explains the long-term trend in Tornado Alley. NAO and the interplay between NAO and ENSO explained the interannual to multi-decadal variability in Tornado Alley. PDO and AMO are also contributing to this multi-time scale variability. SOI and AO explain the cyclical variability in Dixie Alley. This improved understanding of the variability and trends in tornadoes should be of immense value to public planners, businesses, and insurance-based risk management agencies.

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