scholarly journals Can an Earth System Model simulate better climate change at mid-Holocene than an AOGCM? A comparison study of MIROC-ESM and MIROC3

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1519-1542 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Ohgaito ◽  
T. Sueyoshi ◽  
A. Abe-Ouchi ◽  
T. Hajima ◽  
S. Watanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Precipitation Enhancement

Abstract. The importance of evaluating models through paleoclimate simulations is becoming more recognized in efforts to improve climate projection. To evaluate an integrated Earth System Model, MIROC-ESM, we performed simulations in time-slice experiments for the mid-Holocene (6000 yr before present, 6 ka) and preindustrial (1850 AD, 0 ka) periods under the protocol of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5/Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3. We first give an overview of the simulated global climates by comparing with simulations using a previous version of the MIROC model (MIROC3), which is an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model. We then comprehensively discuss various aspects of climate change with 6 ka forcing and how the differences in the models can affect the results. We also discuss the representation of the precipitation enhancement at 6 ka over northern Africa. The precipitation enhancement at 6 ka over northern Africa according to MIROC-ESM does not differ greatly from that obtained with MIROC3, which means that newly developed components such as dynamic vegetation and improvements in the atmospheric processes do not have significant impacts on the representation of the 6 ka monsoon change suggested by proxy records. Although there is no drastic difference between the African monsoon representations of the two models, there are small but significant differences in the precipitation enhancement over the Sahara in early summer, which can be related to the representation of the sea surface temperature rather than the vegetation coupling in MIROC-ESM. Because the oceanic parts of the two models are identical, the difference in the sea surface temperature change is ultimately attributed to the difference in the atmospheric and/or land modules, and possibly the difference in the representation of low-level clouds.

scholarly journals North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Projected Sea Surface Temperature: Local versus Remote Influences

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (19) ◽  
pp. 6973-6991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura M. Ciasto ◽  
Camille Li ◽  
Justin J. Wettstein ◽  
Nils Gunnar Kvamstø
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Version ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract This study investigates the sensitivity of the North Atlantic storm track to future changes in local and global sea surface temperature (SST) and highlights the role of SST changes remote to the North Atlantic. Results are based on three related coupled climate models: the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5) [CESM1(CAM5)], and the Norwegian Earth System Model, version 1 (intermediate resolution) (NorESM1-M). Analysis reveals noticeable intermodel differences in projected storm-track changes from the coupled simulations [i.e., the difference in 200-hPa eddy activity between the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and historical scenarios]. In the CCSM4 coupled simulations, the North Atlantic storm track undergoes a poleward shift and eastward extension. In CESM1(CAM5), the storm-track change is dominated by an intensification and eastward extension. In NorESM1-M, the storm-track change is characterized by a weaker intensification and slight eastward extension. Atmospheric experiments driven only by projected local (North Atlantic) SST changes from the coupled models fail to reproduce the magnitude and structure of the projected changes in eddy activity aloft and zonal wind from the coupled simulations. Atmospheric experiments driven by global SST and sea ice changes do, however, reproduce the eastward extension. Additional experiments suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations do not directly influence storm-track changes in the coupled simulations, although they do through GHG-induced changes in SST. The eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track is hypothesized to be linked to western Pacific SST changes that influence tropically forced Rossby wave trains, but further studies are needed to isolate this mechanism from other dynamical adjustments to global warming.

scholarly journals Reversibility of Historical and Future Climate Change with a Complex Earth System Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shili Yang ◽  
Di Tian ◽  
JieMing Chou ◽  
Ting Wei ◽  
Xian Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
System Model ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Initial Values ◽  
Precipitation Total

Abstract The reversibility of a wide range of components of the earth system was investigated by comparing forward and time-reversed historical and future simulations of a coupled earth system model known as the Beijing Normal University earth system model. Many characteristics of the climate system, including the surface temperature, ocean heat content (OHC), convective precipitation, total runoff, ground evaporation, soil moisture, sea ice extent and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, did not fully return to their initial values when the historical or future natural and anthropogenic forcing agents were reversed. The surface temperature and OHC declines lagged behind the decline in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Reverses in other variables occurred in direct response to the decline in GHGs. The sea level increased, even after all of the forces returned to the original values. Furthermore, most of the climate variables did not return to their original values because of thermal inertial. The end states of variables, other than those related to thermal storage, mainly depended on the original state of the natural and anthropogenic forces, and were unaffected by the future growth rate of the GHGs. The climate policy implication of this study is that climate change cannot be completely reversed even if all the external forces are returned to their initial values.

scholarly journals Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jeong-byn Seo ◽  
Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

scholarly journals Sea-surface temperature records of Termination 1 in the Gulf of California: Challenges for seasonal and interannual analogues of tropical Pacific climate change

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin L. McClymont ◽  
Raja S. Ganeshram ◽  
Laetitia E. Pichevin ◽  
Helen M. Talbot ◽  
Bart E. van Dongen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Temperature Records

scholarly journals Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2123-2165 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-L. Dufresne ◽  
M.-A. Foujols ◽  
S. Denvil ◽  
A. Caubel ◽  
O. Marti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climate Change Projections

Potential of increasing intensity of tropical cyclones due to sea surface temperature and impact on coral reefs in the context of climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
N.D. Hung ◽  
L.T.H. Thuy ◽  
T.V. Hang ◽  
T.N. Luan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coral Reefs ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Coral Cover ◽  
Central Zone ◽  
Biosphere Reserve ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Strong Winds

The coral reef ecosystem in Cu Lao Cham, Vietnam is part of the central zone of the Cu Lao Cham -Hoi An, a biosphere reserve and it is strictly protected. However, the impacts of natural disasters - tropical cyclones (TCs) go beyond human protection. The characteristic feature of TCs is strong winds and the consequences of strong winds are high waves. High waves caused by strong TCs (i.e. level 13 or more) cause decline in coral cover in the seas around Cu Lao Cham. Based on the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of TCs, this research determines the number of strong TCs in Cu Lao Cham in the future. Using results from a regional climate change model, the risk is that the number of strong TCs in the period 2021-2060 under the RCP4.5 scenario, will be 3.7 times greater than in the period 1980-2019 and under the RCP 8.5 scenario it will be 5.2 times greater than in the period 1980-2019. We conclude that increases in SST in the context of climate change risks will increase the number and intensity of TCs and so the risk of their mechanical impact on coral reefs will be higher leading to degradation of this internationally important site.

scholarly journals The EC-Earth3 Earth System Model for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Döscher ◽  
Mario Acosta ◽  
Andrea Alessandri ◽  
Peter Anthoni ◽  
Almut Arneth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Performance ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Dynamic Features ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Earth System Model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different HPC systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behaviour and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.

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