A comparative literature review of the methodologies to evaluate risk of NaTech disasters and Critical Infrastructure affected by natural hazard

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margherita D'Ayala ◽  
Riccardo Giusti ◽  
Marcello Arosio ◽  
Mario Martina
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Critical Infrastructures ◽  
Industrial Accident ◽  
Technological Disasters ◽  
Natural Event ◽  
Similarities And Differences ◽  
Change Framework ◽  
Oil Gas

<p>In a climate change framework extreme natural events are going to occur more frequently and intensively as a result of global warming. Therefore, the effects and consequences of climate-related natural hazards, such as flooding, heatwaves, drought, landslides and others, have the potential to become more disastrous and extensive. Consequences of such events are of particular concern considering that today’s societies are interconnected in complex and dynamic socio-technological networks and, hence, dependent more than before on Critical Infrastructures (CI) systems (such as transport, energy, water, ICT systems, etc.). Furthermore, there are also events of Natural Hazards Trigger Technological Disasters (also known as NaTech events), whereby an industrial accident caused by a natural event could affect people, the environment, and other facilities and systems. This work reviews studies in the fields of risk assessment of CI systems affected by natural hazards and NaTech events.</p><p>This study identifies and classifies: the methodologies applied (qualitative or quantitative), the type of infrastructures exposed (transport, electricity, oil, gas, water and waste water and telecommunications systems, industrial or nuclear plant) and hazard considered (flood, earthquake, lighting, landslide, avalanche, storm surge, heat and cold waves, wind), the scale of application and the level of spatial resolution.</p><p>The work provides a comparison of the scientific studies, the objectives and analysis methods to assess risk employed in the fields of CI systems and NaTech events in order to highlight similarities and differences and to guide the most suitable approach for each application case.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Unni Marie Kolderup Eidsvig ◽  
Krister Kristensen ◽  
Bjørn Vidar Vangelsten
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Quality Level ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Natural Event ◽  
Ranking Criteria ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
Restoration Effort

Abstract. This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures. The model prescribes a three level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analysis to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterize conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure break-down caused by a natural event, are defined as 1) Robustness and buffer capacity, 2) Level of protection, 3) Quality/Level of maintenance and renewal, 4) Adaptability and quality in operational procedures and 5) Transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe the societal consequences of the infrastructure failure, such as Redundancy and/or substitution, Restoration effort/duration, Preparedness, early warning and emergency response and Dependencies and cascading effects. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (depending e.g. on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of the infrastructure. Case studies for two Norwegian municipalities are presented where risk posed by adverse weather and natural hazards to primary road, water supply and power network is assessed. The application examples show that the proposed model provides a useful tool for screening of potential undesirable events, contributing to a targeted reduction of the risk.

scholarly journals Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 481-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Unni Marie K. Eidsvig ◽  
Krister Kristensen ◽  
Bjørn Vidar Vangelsten
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Quality Level ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Power Networks ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Natural Event ◽  
Ranking Criteria ◽  
Adverse Weather

Abstract. This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures, with a focus on the indirect losses and loss of stability for the population relying on the infrastructure. The model prescribes a three-level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analyses to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability, including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself, and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterise conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure malfunctioning caused by a natural event, are defined as (1) robustness and buffer capacity, (2) level of protection, (3) quality/level of maintenance and renewal, (4) adaptability and quality of operational procedures and (5) transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe conditions influencing the socio-economic consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning, such as (1) redundancy and/or substitution, (2) cascading effects and dependencies, (3) preparedness and (4) early warning, emergency response and measures. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (e.g. depending on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of the infrastructure. Case studies for two Norwegian municipalities are presented for demonstration purposes, where risk posed by adverse weather and natural hazards to primary road, water supply and power networks is assessed. The application examples show that the proposed model provides a useful tool for screening of potential undesirable events, contributing to a targeted reduction of the risk.

Urban preparedness for critical infrastructures disruptions from an end user perspective

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Sandholz ◽  
Dominic Sett
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Emergency Services ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Critical Infrastructures ◽  
Interdependent Network ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Damage Impact

<p>Critical infrastructures, such as energy, water and ICT supply are the backbone of societies. Especially in urban contexts, peoples’ dependency on the increasingly complex and interdependent network of critical infrastructures is daunting. However, a majority of inhabitants is rather unaware of related implications and risks, leaving individuals largely unprepared and highly vulnerable to potential critical infrastructure disruptions or failures. This is particularly true for developed countries with high supply security.</p><p>In addition, current discourses on safe and affordable operations of CI are mostly limited to the engineered part such as roads or electricity lines while hardly dealing with the soft components, namely coping capacities to overcome potential outages. With more frequent and intense occurrence of natural hazards the combination of CI complexity, dependency and unawareness poses a growing threat to urban populations with major implications for local disaster management actors and emergency services.</p><p>Based on comprehensive literature and policy analyses and this contribution will elaborate on challenges and opportunities of reducing natural hazards’ impacts on urban areas by extending assessments of critical infrastructure exposure to “soft” components, focusing on impacts on end users. Data from a major household survey conducted in a German city will be used to present and discuss damage impact types, their interlinkages as well as potential pathways towards risk reduction.</p>

Natural Hazards Governance in Germany

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Kammerbauer
Keyword(s):  
Crisis Management ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Flood Insurance ◽  
Research Institutions ◽  
Volunteer Organizations ◽  
Local Levels

In the Federal Republic of Germany, with its parliamentary system of democratic governance, threats posed by natural hazards are of key national relevance. Storms cause the majority of damage and are the most frequent natural hazard, the greatest economic losses are related to floods, and extreme temperatures such as heatwaves cause the greatest number of fatalities. In 2002 a New Strategy for Protecting the Population in Germany was formulated. In this context, natural hazard governance structures and configurations comprise the entirety of actors, rules and regulations, agreements, processes, and mechanisms that deal with collecting, analyzing, communicating, and managing information related to natural hazards. The federal structure of crisis and disaster management shapes how responsible authorities coordinate and cooperate in the case of a disaster due to natural hazards. It features a vertical structure based on subsidiarity and relies heavily on volunteer work. As a state responsibility, the aversion of threats due to natural hazards encompasses planning and preparedness and the response to disaster. The states have legislative power to create related civil protection policies. The institutional and organizational frameworks and measures for disaster response can, therefore, differ between states. The coordination of state ministries takes place by activating an inter-ministerial crisis task force. District administrators or mayors bear the political responsibility for disaster management and lead local efforts that can include recovery and reconstruction measures. The operationalization of disaster management efforts on local levels follows the principle of subsidiarity, and state laws are implemented by local authorities. Based on this structure and the related institutions and responsibilities, actors from different tiers of government interact in the case of a natural hazard incident, in particular if state or local levels of government are overwhelmed: • states can request assistance from the federal government and its institutions; • states can request assistance from the police forces and authorities of other states; and • if the impact of a disaster exceeds local capacities, the next higher administrative level takes on the coordinating role. Due to the complexity of this federated governance system, the vertical integration of governance structures is important to ensure the effective response to and management of a natural hazard incident. Crisis and disaster management across state borders merges the coordination and communication structures on the federal and state levels into an inter-state crisis management structure. Within this governance structure, private market and civil society actors play important roles within the disaster cycle and its phases of planning and preparedness, response, and recovery/reconstruction, such as flood insurance providers, owners of critical infrastructure, volunteer organizations, and research institutions. • critical infrastructure is a strategic federal policy area in the field of crisis management and is considered a specific protection subject, resulting in particular planning requirements and regulations; • volunteer organizations cooperate within the vertical structure of disaster management; • flood insurance is currently available in Germany to private customers, while coverage is considered low; and • research on natural hazards is undertaken by public and private higher education and research institutions that can form partnerships with governmental institutions.

scholarly journals Attack Categorisation for IoT Applications in Critical Infrastructures, a Survey

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 7228
Author(s):  
Edward Staddon ◽  
Valeria Loscri ◽  
Nathalie Mitton
Keyword(s):  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Attack Detection ◽  
Critical Infrastructures ◽  
Cyber Attack ◽  
Specific System ◽  
Iot Applications ◽  
War Zone ◽  
Clear Vision ◽  
The Internet Of Things ◽  
Do So

With the ever advancing expansion of the Internet of Things (IoT) into our everyday lives, the number of attack possibilities increases. Furthermore, with the incorporation of the IoT into Critical Infrastructure (CI) hardware and applications, the protection of not only the systems but the citizens themselves has become paramount. To do so, specialists must be able to gain a foothold in the ongoing cyber attack war-zone. By organising the various attacks against their systems, these specialists can not only gain a quick overview of what they might expect but also gain knowledge into the specifications of the attacks based on the categorisation method used. This paper presents a glimpse into the area of IoT Critical Infrastructure security as well as an overview and analysis of attack categorisation methodologies in the context of wireless IoT-based Critical Infrastructure applications. We believe this can be a guide to aid further researchers in their choice of adapted categorisation approaches. Indeed, adapting appropriated categorisation leads to a quicker attack detection, identification, and recovery. It is, thus, paramount to have a clear vision of the threat landscapes of a specific system.

Synthetic Environments for Investigating Collaborative Information Seeking: An Application in Emergency Restoration of Critical Infrastructures

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Mendonça ◽  
William A. Wallace ◽  
Barbara Cutler ◽  
James Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Information Seeking ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Critical Infrastructures ◽  
Close Collaboration ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Computer Based ◽  
Collaborative Information Seeking ◽  
Post Disaster

AbstractLarge-scale disasters can produce profound disruptions in the fabric of interdependent critical infrastructure systems such as water, telecommunications and electric power. The work of post-disaster infrastructure restoration typically requires information sharing and close collaboration across these sectors; yet – due to a number of factors – the means to investigate decision making phenomena associated with these activities are limited. This paper motivates and describes the design and implementation of a computer-based synthetic environment for investigating collaborative information seeking in the performance of a (simulated) infrastructure restoration task. The main contributions of this work are twofold. First, it develops a set of theoretically grounded measures of collaborative information seeking processes and embeds them within a computer-based system. Second, it suggests how these data may be organized and modeled to yield insights into information seeking processes in the performance of a complex, collaborative task. The paper concludes with a discussion of implications of this work for practice and for future research.

Pipeline Vulnerability to Natural Hazards

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Vicente Amórtegui
Keyword(s):  
Stress State ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Monitoring Systems ◽  
System Vulnerability ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
Strength And Stiffness ◽  
External Forces

The strength and stiffness of the pipelines allow them to tolerate the effects of natural hazards for some period of time. The amount of time depends on the strength and deformability, the stress state, the age, the conditions of installation and operation of the pipeline and their geometric arrangement with regard to the hazardous process. Accordingly, some of the hazards due to weather conditions and external forces would not be time independent. In consequence the designing of monitoring systems to predict the behavior of the pipelines against natural hazards is required in order to carry out the preventive actions which are necessary to avoid failure of the pipes due to the exposition to those hazards. In this paper a method for assessing the transport system vulnerability is developed, a function for risk analysis is proposed (which is determined by the probability of the natural hazard, the pipeline’s vulnerability to the hazard and the consequences of the pipe rupture). The elements that are part of that evaluation are presented and illustrated by means of examples.

scholarly journals Natural hazards and technological risk in Russia: the relation assessment

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 459-464 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Petrova
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Field Variation ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbances ◽  
Regional Environment ◽  
Geophysical Field ◽  
Technological Risk ◽  
Technological Disasters ◽  
Toxic Emissions ◽  
Automatic Machinery ◽  
Solar Disturbances

Abstract. Almost every natural disaster is accompanied by some sort of technological one. A number of studies also show a correlation between technological disasters and various global processes such as solar disturbances, geophysical field variation etc. In this study we attempted to ascertain and codify the relationship between different types of technological disasters and natural hazards. Two types of natural hazards were found, based on their genesis, distribution in time, and impact pattern on the technosphere. Solar and geomagnetic disturbances generally affect technological risk through the failure of automatic machinery and the reduction of operator reliability. They increase the probability of transport accidents, fires, and catastrophic toxic emissions. These types of technological disasters are widely prevalent throughout Russia and in all federal regions. Geological, climatic, hydrological, and other natural hazardous processes increase technological risk through direct mechanical impacts. Their occurrence in space and time depends on the character of the natural process and the specific regional environment. The total number and proportion of technological disasters in federal regions results mainly from the concentration of industrial units and their type, as well as the local natural and social environment. Temporal changes in the number of technological disasters of different groups depend on the prevailing type of natural processes.

scholarly journals Landscape analysis for multi-hazard prevention in Orco and Soana valleys, Northwest Italy

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 1963-1972 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Turconi ◽  
D. Tropeano ◽  
G. Savio ◽  
S. K. De ◽  
P. J. Mason
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Thematic Maps ◽  
Italian Alps ◽  
Alpine Environment ◽  
Natural Risk ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Morphological Studies ◽  
Field Evidence ◽  
Different Types

Abstract. The study area (600 km2), consisting of Orco and Soana valleys in the Western Italian Alps, experienced different types of natural hazards, typical of the whole Alpine environment. Some of the authors have been requested to draw a civil protection plan for such mountainous regions. This offered the special opportunity (1) to draw a lot of unpublished historical data, dating back several centuries mostly concerning natural hazard processes and related damages, (2) to develop original detailed geo-morphological studies in a region still poorly known, (3) to prepare detailed thematic maps illustrating landscape components related to natural conditions and hazards, (4) to thoroughly check present-day situations in the area compared to the effects of past events and (5) to find adequate natural hazard scenarios for all sites exposed to risk. The method of work has been essentially to compare archival findings with field evidence in order to assess natural hazard processes, their occurrence and magnitude, and to arrange all such elements in a database for GIS-supported thematic maps. Several types of natural hazards, such as landslides, rockfalls, debris flows, stream floods and snow avalanches cause huge damage to lives and properties (housings, roads, tourist sites). We aim to obtain newly acquired knowledge in this large, still poorly understood area as well as develop easy-to-interpret products such as natural risk maps.

scholarly journals The Swiss joint information platform for natural hazards

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Philipp Angehrn ◽  
Sabina Steiner ◽  
Christophe Lienert
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Measurement Data ◽  
User Feedback ◽  
Acceptance Testing ◽  
Spatial Density ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Information Platform

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The Swiss Joint Information Platform for Natural Hazards (GIN) has been realized from 2008 to 2010 as part of the Swiss federal government’s OWARNA project, which aimed at optimizing warning and alerting procedures against natural hazard. The first online-version of the platform went productive in 2011 with the primary goal of providing measured and forecast natural hazard data in form of processed cartographic, graphic and other multimedia products to professional users &amp;ndash; before, during and after natural hazard events. In Switzerland water-, weather-, snow- and earthquake-related hazards are the most relevant ones.</p><p>In 2013, an online survey showed that the platform does not fully meet user expectations, particularly as to user experience and usability of its cartographic, web-based user interface. Revaluation and redesign of the overall platform were necessary in order to improve map legibility, caused by the complexity of data, large data amounts, and high spatial density of online, real-time measurement data locations. A new web design and user interaction concept have been developed in 2014 and eventually put online in June 2017. User acceptance testing by means of surveys and direct user feedback sessions were key factors in this perennial redesign process. The GIN platform now features important novel technical and graphical elements: The starting page is based on a dashboard containing virtual dossiers (Fig. 1), with which users configure their desired information, data, and map bundles individually, or use predefined adaptable views on various existing data sets. In addition, there is a new overall spatial search function to query data parameters. A responsive approach further improves the usability of the platform. The focus of these new features is on multi-views involving maps, diagrams, tables, text products, as well as selected geographical areas on maps, and fast data queries (Fig. 2). Current user feedback suggests that the new GIN platform design is well received, and that it is moving closer to its very goal: online monitoring and management of natural hazard events by enhanced usability, more targeted and higher personalization.</p><p>Several Swiss Cantons (i.e., the political entities in Switzerland below the federation) actively participated, and still participate, in the conceptual GIN platform development process through advisory board meetings and consultations. On the operational level, Cantons actively provide and contribute further natural hazard information and measurement data from their own natural hazard monitoring networks. These additional Cantonal regional-scale data sets help to fill spatial data gaps, where no Federal data is available. GIN thusly integrates natural hazard data from Federal and Cantonal levels (and partly even private level), which adds value to all stakeholders on various political levels involved in natural hazard management (Federal, Cantonal, Regional, Communal crisis committees). Stakeholders not only use GIN’s ample database and cartographic product portfolio to accomplish their early warning and crisis management tasks, but also benefit from seamless, secure and reliable IT-services, provided by the Swiss Federal Government. With the new GIN platform, Switzerland has a powerful, integrative, and comprehensive tool for monitoring and responding to natural hazard events.</p>

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