Tsunami Hazard of the Caspian Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alisa Medvedeva ◽  
Igor Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Seismic Sources ◽  
Deterministic Approach ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Sea Coast

<p>A regional model of tsunami seismic sources in the zone of the Main Caucasian thrust has been developed. The parameters of probable models of seismic sources and their uncertainties were estimated based on the available data on historical earthquakes and active faults of the region. The scenario modeling technique was used for the tsunami zoning of the Caspian Sea coast. The time period covered by the model catalog of earthquakes used to calculate the generation and propagation of tsunamis is about 20 000 years, which is longer than the recurrence periods of the strongest possible earthquakes. The recurrence graphs of the calculated maximum tsunami heights for the entire sea coast were plotted. On their basis, the maximum heights of tsunami waves on the coast were calculated with recurrence periods of 250, 500, 1000 and 5000 years and the corresponding survey maps of the tsunami zoning of the Caspian Sea were created. The algorithm for calculating the tsunami run-up on the coast is improved, taking into account the residual (postseismic) displacements of the bottom and land relief. Estimates of tsunami hazard for the coast near the city of Kaspiysk were carried out: within the framework of the deterministic approach, the maximum wave heights and run-up distance were calculated. It is shown that the deterministic approach slightly overestimates the maximum heights of tsunami waves with certain return periods. It is shown that changes in the mean sea level can affect the features of the propagation of tsunami waves in the Caspian Sea. Thus, at an average sea level of -25-26 m, the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay is linked with the entire sea through a narrow strait. It leads to the propagation of tsunami waves into the water area of the bay and a decrease in wave height on the eastern coast of the sea. When the mean sea level decreases below -27 m, the positive depths in the strait disappear and water exchange through the strait stops, and the wave height in this part of the sea increases.</p>

scholarly journals TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN THE CASPIAN SEA

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 74-88
Author(s):  
E. A. Kulikov ◽  
A. Yu. Medvedeva ◽  
I. V. Fine
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Water Area ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Estimation Of Parameters ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
The North ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Run Up

The article describes the tsunami hazard assessment for the coast of the Caspian Sea, in particular for the Absheron Peninsula. Due to the high socio-economic load on the coast of this region by electric power and oil production industries requirements, it is necessary to take into account risks even for such extremely rare natural phenomena like tsunamis. An earthquake with M = 8 ± 0.2 can occur throughout the Caspian Sea region, including land, once every 216 years, while for the water area the frequency of occurrence of such an event is 1620 years. The article presents the results of a tsunami hazard assessment based on a deterministic approach for the Absheron Peninsula. This approach of the tsunami hazard assessing of an arbitrary part of the coast consists of selecting of the strongest observed (or hypothetical) tsunami event from a neighborhood and from a distant zone, of the subsequent estimation of parameters for model sources and, finally, of the numerical modeling of tsunami generation and propagation from these sources. It was obtained that with the propagation of tsunami waves from the north to the coast of the Absheron Peninsula, its height can reach 3‒4 m for some parts of the coast with run-up 500‒1500 m.

scholarly journals Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 2557-2568 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wronna ◽  
R. Omira ◽  
M. A. Baptista
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Deterministic Approach ◽  
Flow Depth ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2.

scholarly journals Seasonal variability of the Caspian Sea three-dimensional circulation, sea level and air-sea interaction

Ocean Science ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 311-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Ibrayev ◽  
E. Özsoy ◽  
C. Schrum ◽  
H. İ. Sur
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Coastal Currents ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Sea Surface Topography

Abstract. A three-dimensional primitive equation model including sea ice thermodynamics and air-sea interaction is used to study seasonal circulation and water mass variability in the Caspian Sea under the influence of realistic mass, momentum and heat fluxes. River discharges, precipitation, radiation and wind stress are seasonally specified in the model, based on available data sets. The evaporation rate, sensible and latent heat fluxes at the sea surface are computed interactively through an atmospheric boundary layer sub-model, using the ECMWF-ERA15 re-analysis atmospheric data and model generated sea surface temperature. The model successfully simulates sea-level changes and baroclinic circulation/mixing features with forcing specified for a selected year. The results suggest that the seasonal cycle of wind stress is crucial in producing basin circulation. Seasonal cycle of sea surface currents presents three types: cyclonic gyres in December–January; Eckman south-, south-westward drift in February–July embedded by western and eastern southward coastal currents and transition type in August–November. Western and eastern northward sub-surface coastal currents being a result of coastal local dynamics at the same time play an important role in meridional redistribution of water masses. An important part of the work is the simulation of sea surface topography, yielding verifiable results in terms of sea level. The model successfully reproduces sea level variability for four coastal points, where the observed data are available. Analyses of heat and water budgets confirm climatologic estimates of heat and moisture fluxes at the sea surface. Experiments performed with variations in external forcing suggest a sensitive response of the circulation and the water budget to atmospheric and river forcing.

scholarly journals Tsunamis boulders on the rocky shores of Minorca (Balearic Islands)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesc X. Roig-Munar ◽  
Josep M. Vilaplana ◽  
Antoni Rodríguez-Perea ◽  
José A. Martín-Prieto ◽  
Bernadí Gelabert
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Balearic Islands ◽  
Rocky Shores ◽  
Impact Zone ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Southeast Coast ◽  
Historical Tsunamis ◽  
Run Up

Abstract. Large boulders have been found on marine cliffs of 24 study areas of Minorca, Balearic Archipelago. These large imbricated boulders, of up to 229 tonnes, are located on platforms that conform the rocky coastline of Minorca, several tenths of meters from the edge of the cliff, up to 15 m above the sea level, and kilometres away from any inland escarpment. They are mostly located on the southeast coast of the island, and numerical models have identified this coastline as a high tsunami impact zone. The age of the boulders in most of the studied localities show a good correlation with historical tsunamis. Age of the boulders, direction of imbrication and estimation of run-up necessary for their placement, indicate dislodging and transport by North Africa tsunami waves that hit the coastline of Minorca.

scholarly journals Features of seasonal changes of the Caspian Sea level

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.S. Safarov ◽  
◽  
J.-F. Cretaux ◽  
R.M. Mammadov ◽  
A. Arsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Seasonal Changes ◽  
The Caspian Sea
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