scholarly journals Towards updated national projections for climate adaptation in Norway

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anita Verpe Dyrrdal ◽  
Hans Olav Hygen ◽  
Irene Brox Nilsen ◽  
Stephanie Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
National Level ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Bias Adjustment ◽  
High Emission

<p>In the wake of the 6th assessment report from IPCC due this year, the Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) has started a project to update their national climate assessment report Climate in Norway 2100. A major part of this update revolves around the selection of a representative model ensemble for a low, medium and high emission scenario, plus bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX output and statistical downscaling directly from CMIP6 to the national, and subnational, level. The results will form the natural scientific basis for local climate adaptation in Norway, through the computation of expected changes in selected climate indices on a 1 x 1 km grid covering the Norwegian mainland. </p><p>The new knowledge will also serve to update the much used climate fact sheets (presented at EMS 2016) for Norwegian counties. We aim to develop a map based webtool for the climate fact sheets, consisting of map layers of several climate indices. The user will be able to get tailored fact sheets for a given point or region, generated from a template that merges information from map layers and predefined texts.</p><p>The project is divided into five working groups: 1. Historical climate, 2. Modeling, 2. Future climate, 4. Infrastructure, 5. Outreach. In this presentation we will present the organization and plans for the project, as well as details on the model ensemble selection from EURO-CORDEX, based on both CMIP5 and CMIP6, and the methods for downscaling a bias-adjustment to the national level. The updated report is planned to be issued in 2024.</p>

Climadjust: easing the Bias Adjustment process through a user-friendly web service

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan José Sáenz de la Torre ◽  
Elena Suárez ◽  
David Iglesias ◽  
Iván Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Pérez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Web Service ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
End Users ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Bias Adjustment ◽  
User Friendly

<p>Climate projections obtained from global and regional climate models usually exhibit biases: systematic deviations from observations. Adjusting these biases is typically the first step towards obtaining actionable climate information to be used in impact studies. However, this bias adjustment process is highly technical and demands a lot of resources, both infrastructures (e.g. access to high performance and cloud computing) —particularly for continental wide applications— and human (e.g. personnel specialised in climate data post-processing).</p><p>Climadjust (accessible through https://climadjust.com/) is a web service developed with the support of the Copernicus Climate Change Service  implementing user-friendly bias adjustment for climate projections from the C3S catalogue using customized methods and reference datasets. The service was developed by Predictia —a company with a strong focus on climate services development and climate modelling— in collaboration with the Spanish Research Council (CSIC). </p><p>Climadjust provides scalable cloud resources to compute bias-adjusted climate projections from the ensembles of CMIP and CORDEX datasets or customized areas of interest. In this process, the users are able to (i) upload their own dataset of observations to adjust the climate projections, or choose among reference datasets such as ERA5-Land or WFDE-5, (ii) choose among six state-of-the-art Bias Adjustment techniques implemented using the open source Climate4R package, and (iii) validate the results through the standard framework developed in the European VALUE COST Action. The output is a validated netCDF file, ready to be used by the climate modellers working in climate studies.</p><p>This climate service is targeted at the end tail of the downstream market of climate services, namely climate modellers working in sectoral climate adaptation in the agriculture, hydrology, biodiversity, insurance and forestry management fields, among others. Currently, the service counts with over 100 registered users.</p><p>To promote the user uptake of the service, the project faced several barriers, such as a lack of understanding on the need of adjusting biases by the end-users, and communication barriers between the climate science community and the end-user community. The session will present the lessons learnt during the user uptake campaigns, the user needs gathered through the user engagement activities performed within it, as well as relevant use-cases of the service, developed hand in hand with the end users.</p>

scholarly journals Evidence for local climate adaptation in early-life traits of Tasmanian populations of Eucalyptus pauciflora

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Archana Gauli ◽  
René E. Vaillancourt ◽  
Tanya G. Bailey ◽  
Dorothy A. Steane ◽  
Brad M. Potts
Keyword(s):  
Early Life ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Life Traits

Local climate adaptation and gene flow in the native range of two co‐occurring fruit moths with contrasting invasiveness

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li‐Jun Cao ◽  
Bing‐Yan Li ◽  
Jin‐Cui Chen ◽  
Jia‐Ying Zhu ◽  
Ary A. Hoffmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gene Flow ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Native Range ◽  
Local Climate

Impacts & Sozioökonomie im D-A-CH Raum - Status-quo und gemeinsame, zukünftige Aktivitäten

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Geiger ◽  
Gudrun Mühlbacher ◽  
Michiko Hama ◽  
Andreas Fischer ◽  
David N. Bresch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
National Centre

<p>Die Zunahme von Wetter- und Klimaextremen durch den voranschreitenden Klimawandel ist zunehmend mit gesellschaftlichen Auswirkungen und ökonomischen Kosten verbunden. Eine umfassende Quantifizierung und nutzerspezifische Kommunikation dieser sozioökonomischen Auswirkungen an politische und privatwirtschaftliche Entscheider ist für die Vermeidung möglicher Folgen und eine adäquate Anpassung unerlässlich. </p> <p>Gleichzeitig gewinnt die Frage nach dem sozioökonomischen Nutzen von Wetterdiensten und deren Leistungen eine immer größere Relevanz. Der  sozioökonomische Nutzen beschränkt sich dabei nicht nur auf monetäre Aspekte, denn Wetterdienste versetzen die Gesellschaft durch die Bereitstellung entsprechender Informationen in die Lage qua Verhalten besser, sicherer und nachhaltiger auf Wetter- und Klimaereignisse zu reagieren.</p> <p>Dieser Vortrag erörtert bestehende Aktivitäten der Wetterdienste aus Deutschland, Österreich und der Schweiz (DACH) im Bereich Risiko, Impacts und sozioökonomische Nutzenbetrachtungen, u.a. mit Einblicken in </p> <ul> <li aria-level="1">die Wetter- und Klimakommunikation aus sozial- und verhaltenswissenschaftlicher Perspektive,</li> <li aria-level="1">die Integration von Daten über Auswirkungen, Verluste und Schäden in einer einheitlichen Ereignisdatenbank (CESARE),</li> <li aria-level="1">Ziele und Nutzen eines Risiko- und Auswirkungs-orientierten Ansatzes für Wetterdienste, am Beispiel des RiskLabs der ZAMG</li> </ul> <ul> <li aria-level="1">die Entwicklung und Anwendung der open-source <em>Python</em> Plattform CLIMADA [1] im Bereich impact-based warnings (MeteoSchweiz) und Abschätzung sozioökonomischer Klimafolgen (DWD),</li> <li aria-level="1">über 20 weltweite Klimaanpassungsstudien (Economics of Climate Adaptation, ECA [2]) mit Fokus auf Extremwetter,</li> <li aria-level="1">abgeschlossene und laufende Themenschwerpunkte des National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS)</li> <li aria-level="1">bisherige und anstehende sozioökonomische Nutzenbetrachtungen.</li> </ul> <p>Basierend auf einer Synthese der bisherigen Arbeiten erfolgt eine Identifikation zukünftiger, gemeinsamer Ziele im Rahmen der D-A-CH Kooperation. Dies reicht von einem gemeinsamen, konzeptionellen und methodischen Verständnis der Bewertung von Auswirkungen und Risiken im Kontext Wetter und Klima bis hin zur Etablierung gemeinsamer Anwendungen und Plattformen zur Durchführung tri-nationaler Projekte.</p> <p> </p> <p>Referenzen:</p> <p>[1]    CLIMADA Python plattform, https://wcr.ethz.ch/research/climada.html</p> <p>[2]    Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA), https://eca-network.org/</p>

Skill assessment of post-processing methods for ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecasts over Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Crespi ◽  
Marcello Petitta ◽  
Lucas Grigis ◽  
Paola Marson ◽  
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Production Management ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Skill Assessment ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions

<p>Seasonal forecasts provide information on climate conditions several months ahead and therefore they could represent a valuable support for decision making, warning systems as well as for the optimization of industry and energy sectors. However, forecast systems can be affected by systematic biases and have horizontal resolutions which are typically coarser than the spatial scales of the practical applications. For this reason, the reliability of forecasts needs to be carefully assessed before applying and interpreting them for specific applications. In addition, the use of post-processing approaches is recommended in order to improve the representativeness of the large-scale predictions of regional and local climate conditions. The development and evaluation downscaling and bias-correction procedures aiming at improving the skills of the forecasts and the quality of derived climate services is currently an open research field. In this context, we evaluated the skills of ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts of monthly mean temperature, total precipitation and wind speed over Europe and we assessed the skill improvements of calibrated predictions.</p><p>For the calibration, we combined a bilinear interpolation and a quantile mapping approach to obtain corrected monthly forecasts on a 0.25°x0.25° grid from the original 1°x1° values. The forecasts were corrected against the reference ERA5 reanalysis over the hindcast period 1993–2016. The processed forecasts were compared over the same domain and period with another calibrated set of ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts obtained by the ADAMONT statistical method.</p><p>The skill assessment was performed by means of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics evaluated over seasonal forecasted aggregations for the first lead time. Greater skills of the forecast systems in Europe were generally observed in spring and summer, especially for temperature, with a spatial distribution varying with the seasons. The calibration was proved to effectively correct the model biases for all variables, however the metrics not accounting for bias did not show significant improvements in most cases, and in some areas and seasons even small degradations in skills were observed.</p><p>The presented study supported the activities of the H2020 European project SECLI-FIRM on the improvement of the seasonal forecast applicability for energy production, management and assessment.</p>

scholarly journals The VIADUC project: innovation in climate adaptation through service design

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-205
Author(s):  
L. Corre ◽  
P. Dandin ◽  
D. L'Hôte ◽  
F. Besson
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
End Users ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Major Step ◽  
Climate Services

Abstract. From the French National Adaptation to Climate Change Plan, the "Drias, les futurs du climat" service has been developed to provide easy access to French regional climate projections. This is a major step for the implementation of French Climate Services. The usefulness of this service for the end-users and decision makers involved with adaptation planning at a local scale is investigated. As such, the VIADUC project is: to evaluate and enhance Drias, as well as to imagine future development in support of adaptation. Climate scientists work together with end-users and a service designer. The designer's role is to propose an innovative approach based on the interaction between scientists and citizens. The chosen end-users are three Natural Regional Parks located in the South West of France. The latter parks are administrative entities which gather municipalities having a common natural and cultural heritage. They are also rural areas in which specific economic activities take place, and therefore are concerned and involved in both protecting their environment and setting-up sustainable economic development. The first year of the project has been dedicated to investigation including the questioning of relevant representatives. Three key local economic sectors have been selected: i.e. forestry, pastoral farming and building activities. Working groups were composed of technicians, administrative and maintenance staff, policy makers and climate researchers. The sectors' needs for climate information have been assessed. The lessons learned led to actions which are presented hereinafter.

Climate Adaptation Finance and Justice. A Criteria-Based Assessment of Policy Instruments

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Baatz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
National Level ◽  
Emission Trading ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Global South ◽  
International Community ◽  
Carbon Taxes ◽  
Border Tax Adjustments ◽  
Domestic Trading

Abstract Although the international community repetitively pledged considerable amounts of adaptation finance to the global South, only little has been provided so far. Different instruments have been proposed to generate more funding and this paper aims at identifying those that are most suitable to raise adaptation finance in a just way. The instrument assessment is based on the following main criteria: fairness, effectiveness and feasibility. The criteria are applied to four instruments: contributions from domestic budgets, international carbon taxes collected at the national level, border tax adjustments as well as selling emissions allowances in domestic trading schemes. Domestic emission trading schemes and border tax adjustments achieve the best-or rather, the least bad-results. Two further findings are that (feasible) instruments are unable make agents pay for past excessive emissions and that all instruments generate rather small amounts of funding. As a consequence of the latter, adaptation finance will continue to be highly insufficient in all likelihood.

scholarly journals Emerging New Climate Extremes Over Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Ossó ◽  
Richard P. Allan ◽  
Ed Hawkins ◽  
Len Shaffrey ◽  
Douglas Maraun
Keyword(s):  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Signal To Noise ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Noise Ratio

Abstract Human society and natural systems are intrinsically adapted to the local climate mean and variability. Therefore, changes relative to the local expected variability are highly relevant for assessing impact and planning for adaptation as the climate changes. We analyse the emerging climate signal relative to the diagnosed internal variability (signal-to-noise ratio, S/N) of a set of recently published climate indices over Europe. We calculate the signal-to-noise ratio with respect to a recent baseline (1951-1983) which relates to recent societal experience. In this framework, we find that during the 2000-2016 period, many areas of Europe already experienced significant changes in climate extremes, even when compared to this recent period which is within living memory. In particular, the S/N of extreme temperatures is larger than 1 and 2 over 34% and 4% of Europe, respectively. We also find that about 15% of Europe is experiencing more intense winter precipitation events, while in summer, 7% of Europe is experiencing stronger drought-inducing conditions.

The influence of global climate and local hydrological features over streamflow extremes.  Case of study in a tropical Andean basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Avilés ◽  
Juan Contreras ◽  
Daniel Mendoza ◽  
Jheimy Pacheco
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Lulc Changes ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Floods And Droughts

<p>Hydrological extremes such as floods and droughts are the most common and threatening natural disasters worldwide. Particularly, tropical Andean headwaters systems are prone to hazards due to their complex climate conditions. However, little is known about the underlying mechanisms triggering such extremes events. In this study, the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) were used for investigating the relations between the Annual- Peak-Flows (APF) and Annual-Low-Flows (ALF), respecting to climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Thirty years of daily streamflow data-sets taken from two Andean catchments of southern Ecuador are used for the experimental research. Global climate indices (CI), describing the large-scale climate variability were used as hypothetical drivers explaining the extreme’s variations on streamflow measures. Additionally, the Antecedent-Cumulative-Precipitation (AP) and the Standardized-Precipitation-Index (SPI), and LULC percentages were also included as possible direct drivers – synthetizing local climate conditions and localized hydrological changes. The results indicate that AP and SPI clearly explain the extreme streamflow variability. Nonetheless, global variables play a significant role underneath the local climate. For instance, ENSO and CAR exert influence over the APF, while ENSO, TSA, PDO and AMO control ALF. Furthermore, it was found that LULC changes strongly influence both extremes; although this is particularly important for relative more disturbed catchments. These results provide valuable insights for future forecasting of floods and droughts based on precipitation and climate indices, and for the development of mitigation strategies for mountain catchments.</p>

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