Identifying the dynamic evolution and feedback process of water resources nexus system considering socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food security: A practical tool for sustainable water use

Abstract. The accelerated consumption of water resources caused by the rapid increase in population and urbanization is intensifying the complex interactions across water resources, socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food security (WSEF), which causes not only the imbalance between water supply and demand but also the vulnerability of both food and ecological systems. Therefore, identifying the dynamic coevolution and feedback process is one of the most crucial ways of achieving the goal of sustainable water use. In this study, we developed an integrated modeling framework to better identify the dynamic interaction and coevolution process of the nexus across WSEF systems in the context of sustainable water uses by coupling system dynamic (SD) model and multi-objective optimization model. The SD model is used to simulate both the dynamic interaction of each agent and the coevolution process of the whole nexus system by positive/negative feedback loops. The multi-objective optimization model is used to quantify the negative feedback loops of the SD model by generating the optimal scheme of different water users. Finally, the model uncertainty considering different weighting factors is analyzed. The framework is applied to the upper reaches of the Guijiang River basin, China. Results show that (i) the rapid economic growth increases the conflict between the water uses for socioeconomic development and ecological protection, intensifying the ecological awareness and resulting in more water shortages of socioeconomic and food agents, which is unable to support such rapid development. (ii) Once the economic growth rate decreases, water resources are able to support economic development with a decreased overload index and stable crop yield, which further contributes to water sustainability. (iii) The river ecological agent is the critical factor that affects the robustness of the model. (iv) The equal consideration of each water usage is the most beneficial to sustainable development. These results highlight the importance of water resources management, considering the tradeoffs across multiple stakeholders, and give a strong reference to policymakers for comprehensive urban planning.

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Modeling the integrated framework of water resources system considering socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food production: A practical tool for sustainable water uses

10.5194/hess-2021-68 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yaogeng Tan ◽

Zengchuan Dong ◽

Xinkui Wang ◽

Wei Yan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Water Resources ◽

Socioeconomic Development ◽

Dynamic Interaction ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

Multi Objective ◽

Ecological Protection ◽

Coevolution Process ◽

Food Vulnerability ◽

Water Uses

Abstract. The accelerated consumption of water resources caused by the rapid increase of population and urbanization is intensifying the negative interactions of water uses across socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food productivity (SEF), which causes an imbalance between water supply & demand, ecological and food vulnerability, and further water unsustainability. To solve this problem, this study developed an integrated modeling framework to better identify the dynamic interaction and coevolution process of the nexus across SEF systems in the context of sustainable water uses by coupling two models: system dynamic model (SD) and multi-objective optimization model. First, the SD model is used to simulate both the dynamic interaction of each agent and the coevolution process of the whole system under external changes. Next, the multi-objective optimal model is used to generate the optimal scheme by iteration process with the initial scheme of SD, further identifying the dynamic interaction and coevolution process in terms of sustainable water use. Finally, the model uncertainty considering different weighting factors is analyzed. The framework is applied to the Upper Reaches of Guijiang River Basin, China. Results show that: (i) the rapid economic growth intensifies the ecological awareness and cannot support such rapid development because it rises the conflict between environment and economic water uses, resulting in more water shortages of socio-economy and food agent. (ii) Once the economic growth rate decreased, water resources are able to support economic development with decreased overload index and stable crop yield, which further contributes to water sustainability. (iii) The river ecological agent is the critical factor that affects the robustness of the model. (iv) The equal consideration of each water usage is the most beneficial to sustainable development. These results highlight the importance of water resources management considering the tradeoffs across multiple stakeholders and give a strong reference to policymakers for comprehensive urban planning.

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Supplementary material to "Modeling the integrated framework of water resources system considering socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food production: A practical tool for sustainable water uses"

10.5194/hess-2021-68-supplement ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yaogeng Tan ◽

Zengchuan Dong ◽

Xinkui Wang ◽

Wei Yan

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Food Production ◽

Socioeconomic Development ◽

Water Resources System ◽

Integrated Framework ◽

Ecological Protection ◽

Practical Tool ◽

Supplementary Material ◽

Water Uses

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An integrated modeling framework for coevolution and feedback loops of nexus across economy, ecology and food systems based on the sustainable development of water resources

10.5194/hess-2020-328 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yaogeng Tan ◽

Zengchuan Dong ◽

Sandra M. Guzman ◽

Xinkui Wang ◽

Wei Yan

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Water Resources ◽

Food Systems ◽

Feedback Loops ◽

Dynamic Responses ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

Multi Objective ◽

Study Results ◽

Objective Model ◽

Sd Model

Abstract. Sustainable development in water resources is becoming a hot topic in recent years. The world is facing the disequilibrium between the availability of resources and the increase in population with fast-growing economies and social development. This study proposes a new methodological framework of sustainable development of water resources based on the response linkages and feedback loops of economy-ecology-food (EEF) nexus. It provides a new way to identify the interconnection and coevolution process between these EEF. The multi-objective model and system dynamic (SD) model were coupled to characterize the interconnections between processes and their dynamic responses to a set of scenarios. The combination of decomposition-coordination method (DC) and dynamic programming was used to find the optimal scenario based on each component of the EEF nexus. The Upper reach of Guijiang River Basin (UGRB) was presented as a case study. Results showed that the coupled multi-objective model and SD model presented in this study are able to characterize the interactions and feedback between EEF systems adequately. Most importantly, the rapid growth rate of socio-economic indexes will drive the awareness of river ecology and showed a higher sensitivity under different decision preferences. The results provided in this study can provide baseline information for stakeholders and policymakers in the field of water management for a better understanding of the interactions across systems.

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Modeling the integrated framework of complex water resources system considering economic development, ecological protection, and food production: A practical tool for water management

10.5194/hess-2020-461 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yaogeng Tan ◽

Zengchuan Dong ◽

Sandra M. Guzman ◽

Xinkui Wang ◽

Wei Yan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Economic Development ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Allocation ◽

Ecological Awareness ◽

Multi Objective ◽

Ecological Protection ◽

Food Productivity ◽

Coevolution Process ◽

Allocation Decisions

Abstract. The rapid increase of population and urbanization is accelerating the consumption of the water resources that play an essential role in economic development, ecological protection, and food productivity (EEF). This study developed an integrated modeling framework to better identify the dynamic interaction, coevolution process, and feedback loops of the nexus across EEF systems by incorporating the multi-objective optimization and system dynamic (SD) models. The multi-objective model optimizes the water allocation decisions considering the adaptive status of both the whole system and each agent, while the SD model discloses the dynamics of the coevolution process and reciprocal feedback of the EEF system. The framework is applied to the Upper Reaches of Guijiang River Basin, China, in the context of interconnected systems considering the agents of economic development, ecological protection, and food productivity. Results show that the proposed framework enables the optimal water allocation decisions in each time step, and the SD model can adequately reveal the coevolution process and reciprocal feedback that differs in different stages in integrated, dynamic ways. The rapid economic growth intensifies the ecological awareness that cannot support such rapid development because of the conflict between environment and economic water uses. Once the economic growth rate decreased, water resources are able to support economic development because the ecological awareness is alleviated in this respect. The different water usages demonstrate the competitive mechanism, and the river ecological agent is the critical factor that affects the robustness of the model. The equal consideration of each water usage is the most beneficial to sustainable development. These results highlight the importance of water resources management considering multiple stakeholders and tradeoffs and give an insight into future dynamic changes of complex water systems.

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Evaluating Cryospheric Water Withdrawal and Virtual Water Flows in Tarim River Basin of China: An Input–Output Analysis

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13147589 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (14) ◽

pp. 7589

Author(s):

Yang Yang ◽

Shiwei Liu ◽

Cunde Xiao ◽

Cuiyang Feng ◽

Chenyu Li

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Socioeconomic Development ◽

Virtual Water ◽

Water Withdrawal ◽

Tarim River ◽

Tarim River Basin ◽

Input Output ◽

Output Analysis ◽

Water Flows

In Tarim River Basin (TRB), the retreat of glacier and snow cover reduction due to climate warming threatens the regional economy of downstream basins that critically depends on meltwater. However, the quantitative evaluation of its impact on multiple sectors of the socioeconomic system is incomplete. Based on compiled regional input–output table of the year 2012, this study developed a method to analyze the relationships between economic activities and related meltwater withdrawal, as well as sectoral transfer. The results show that the direct meltwater withdrawal intensity (DMWI) of agriculture was much higher than other sectors, reaching 2348.02 m3/10,000 CNY. Except for A01 (agriculture) and A02 (mining and washing of coal), the embodied meltwater withdrawal (EMW) driven by the final demand of other sectors was greater than direct meltwater withdrawal, and all sectors required inflows of virtual water (72.45 × 108 m3, accounting for 29% of total supply from cryospheric water resources) for their production processes in 2012. For sectors with high DMWI, improving water-use efficiency is an effective way to reduce water withdrawal. To some extent, the unbalanced supply of cryospheric water resources due to geographical segregation can be regulated by virtual water flows from water-saving to water-intensive sectors. Such decisions can affect the balance between socioeconomic development and environment conservation for long-term sustainability.

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