scholarly journals Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2399-2408 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Vessia ◽  
M. Parise ◽  
M. T. Brunetti ◽  
S. Peruccacci ◽  
M. Rossi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Shallow Landslides ◽  
Threshold Values ◽  
Rainfall Thresholds ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Mean Intensity ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
R Language ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Rainfall Duration

Abstract. Over the last 40 years, many contributions have identified empirical rainfall thresholds (e.g. rainfall intensity (I) vs. rainfall duration (D), cumulated rainfall vs. rainfall duration (ED), cumulated rainfall vs. rainfall intensity (EI)) for the possible initiation of shallow landslides, based on local and global inventories. Although different methods to trace the threshold curves have been proposed and discussed in literature, a systematic study to develop an automated procedure to select the rainfall event responsible for the landslide occurrence has only rarely been addressed. Objective criteria for estimating the rainfall responsible for the landslide occurrence play a prominent role on the threshold values. In this paper, two criteria for the identification of the effective rainfall events are presented. The first criterion is based on the analysis of the time series of rainfall mean intensity values over 1 month preceding the landslide occurrence. The second criterion is based on the analysis of the trend in the time function of the cumulated mean intensity series calculated from the rainfall records measured through rain gauges. The two criteria have been implemented in an automated procedure that is written in the R language. A sample of 100 shallow landslides collected in Italy from 2002 to 2012 was used to calibrate the procedure. The cumulated event rainfall (E) and duration (D) of rainfall events that triggered the documented landslides are calculated through the new procedure and are fitted with power law in the D, E diagram. The results are discussed by comparing the D, E pairs calculated by the automated procedure and the ones by the expert method.

scholarly journals Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 2869-2890 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Vessia ◽  
M. Parise ◽  
M. T. Brunetti ◽  
S. Peruccacci ◽  
M. Rossi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Shallow Landslides ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Effective Rainfall ◽  
Threshold Values ◽  
Rainfall Thresholds ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Mean Intensity ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
R Language ◽  
Rain Gauges

Abstract. Over the last 40 years, many contributions have been devoted to identifying the empirical rainfall thresholds (e.g. intensity vs. duration ID, cumulated rainfall vs. duration ED, cumulated rainfall vs. intensity EI) for the initiation of shallow landslides, based on local as well as worldwide inventories. Although different methods to trace the threshold curves have been proposed and discussed in literature, a systematic study to develop an automated procedure to select the rainfall event responsible for the landslide occurrence has rarely been addressed. Nonetheless, objective criteria for estimating the rainfall responsible for the landslide occurrence (effective rainfall) play a prominent role on the threshold values. In this paper, two criteria for the identification of the effective rainfall events are presented: (1) the first is based on the analysis of the time series of rainfall mean intensity values over one month preceding the landslide occurrence, and (2) the second on the analysis of the trend in the time function of the cumulated mean intensity series calculated from the rainfall records measured through rain gauges. The two criteria have been implemented in an automated procedure written in R language. A sample of 100 shallow landslides collected in Italy by the CNR-IRPI research group from 2002 to 2012 has been used to calibrate the proposed procedure. The cumulated rainfall E and duration D of rainfall events that triggered the documented landslides are calculated through the new procedure and are fitted with power law in the (D,E) diagram. The results are discussed by comparing the (D,E) pairs calculated by the automated procedure and the ones by the expert method.

How to account for misclassification costs in shallow-landslide rainfall thresholds?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Frattini ◽  
Gianluca Sala ◽  
Camilla Lanfranconi ◽  
Giulia Rusconi ◽  
Giovanni Crosta
Keyword(s):  
False Alarm ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Rainfall Threshold ◽  
Shallow Landslides ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Rainfall Thresholds ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Misclassification Costs ◽  
Triggering Events ◽  
The Cost

<p>Rainfall is one of the most significant triggering factors for shallow landslides. The early warning for such phenomena requires the definition of a threshold based on a critical rainfall condition that may lead to diffuse landsliding. The developing of these thresholds is frequently done through empirical or statistical approaches that aim at identifying thresholds between rainfall events that triggered or non-triggered landslides. Such approaches present several problems related to the identification of the exact amount of rainfall that triggered landslides, the local geo-environmental conditions at the landslide site, and the minimum rainfall amount used to define the non-triggering events. Furthermore, these thresholds lead to misclassifications (false negative or false positive) that always induce costs for the society. The aim of this research is to address these limitations, accounting for classification costs in order to select the optimal thresholds for landslide risk management.</p><p>Starting from a database of shallow landslides occurred during five regional-scale rainfall events in the Italian Central Alps, we extracted the triggering rainfall intensities by adjusting rain gouge data with weather radar data. This adjustment significantly improved the information regarding the rainfall intensity at the landslide site and, although an uncertainty related to the exact timing of occurrence has still remained. Therefore, we identified the rainfall thresholds through the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) approach, by identifying the optimal rainfall intensity that separates triggering and non-triggering events. To evaluate the effect related to the application of different minimum rainfall for non-triggering events, we have adopted three different values obtaining similar results, thus demonstrating that the ROC approach is not sensitive to the choice of the minimum rainfall threshold. In order to include the effect of misclassification costs we have developed cost-sensitive rainfall threshold curves by using cost-curve approach (Drummond and Holte 2000). As far as we know, this is the first attempt to build a cost-sensitive rainfall threshold for landslides that allows to explicitly account for misclassification costs. For the development of the cost-sensitive threshold curve, we had to define a reference cost scenario in which we have quantified several cost items for both missed alarms and false alarms. By using this scenario, the cost-sensitive rainfall threshold results to be lower than the ROC threshold to minimize the missed alarms, the costs of which are seven times greater than the false alarm costs. Since the misclassification costs could vary according to different socio-economic contexts and emergency organization, we developed different extreme scenarios to evaluate the sensitivity of misclassification costs on the rainfall thresholds. In the scenario with maximum false-alarm cost and minimum missed-alarm cost, the rainfall threshold increases in order to minimize the false alarms. Conversely, the rainfall thresholds decreases in the scenario with minimum false-alarm cost and maximum missed-alarm costs. We found that the range of variation between the curves of these extreme scenarios is as much as half an order of magnitude.</p>

scholarly journals Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 317-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Vennari ◽  
S. L. Gariano ◽  
L. Antronico ◽  
M. T. Brunetti ◽  
G. Iovine ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Italy ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Shallow Landslide ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Shallow Landslides ◽  
Rainfall Thresholds ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Hourly Rainfall

Abstract. In many areas, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. Determining the rainfall conditions responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to saving lives and properties. In a long-term national project for the definition of rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, we compiled a catalogue of 186 rainfall events that resulted in 251 shallow landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, from January 1996 to September 2011. Landslides were located geographically using Google Earth®, and were given a mapping and a temporal accuracy. We used the landslide information, and sub-hourly rainfall measurements obtained from two complementary networks of rain gauges, to determine cumulated event vs. rainfall duration (ED) thresholds for Calabria. For this purpose, we adopted an existing method used to prepare rainfall thresholds and to estimate their associated uncertainties in central Italy. The regional thresholds for Calabria were found to be nearly identical to previous ED thresholds for Calabria obtained using a reduced set of landslide information, and slightly higher than the ED thresholds obtained for central Italy. We segmented the regional catalogue of rainfall events with landslides in Calabria into lithology, soil regions, rainfall zones, and seasonal periods. The number of events in each subdivision was insufficient to determine reliable thresholds, but allowed for preliminary conclusions about the role of the environmental factors in the rainfall conditions responsible for shallow landslides in Calabria. We further segmented the regional catalogue based on administrative subdivisions used for hydro-meteorological monitoring and operational flood forecasting, and we determined separate ED thresholds for the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian coasts of Calabria. We expect the ED rainfall thresholds for Calabria to be used in regional and national landslide warning systems. The thresholds can also be used for landslide hazard and risk assessments, and for erosion and landscape evolution studies, in the study area and in similar physiographic regions in the Mediterranean area.

scholarly journals Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 5141-5179 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Vennari ◽  
S. L. Gariano ◽  
L. Antronico ◽  
M. T. Brunetti ◽  
G. Iovine ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Italy ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Shallow Landslides ◽  
Rainfall Thresholds ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Hourly Rainfall

Abstract. In many areas, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. Determining the rainfall conditions responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to save lives and properties. In a long-term national project for the definition of rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, and for the implementation of a national landslide warning system, we compiled a catalogue of 186 rainfall events that have resulted in 251 shallow landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, from January 1996 to September 2011. Landslides were located geographically using Google Earth®, and were given a mapping and a temporal accuracy. We used the landslide information, and sub-hourly rainfall measurements obtained from two complementary networks of rain gauges, to determine cumulated event vs. rainfall duration (ED) thresholds for Calabria. For the purpose, we adopted an existing method used to prepare rainfall thresholds and to estimate their associated uncertainties in central Italy. The regional thresholds for Calabria were found nearly identical to previous ED thresholds for Calabria obtained using a reduced set of landslide information, and slightly higher than the ED thresholds obtained for central Italy. We segmented the regional catalogue of rainfall events with landslides on lithology, soil regions, rainfall zones, and seasonal periods. The number of events in each subdivision was insufficient to determine reliable thresholds, but allowed for preliminary conclusions on the role of the environmental factors on the rainfall conditions responsible for shallow landslides in Calabria. We further segmented the regional catalogue based on administrative subdivisions used for hydro-meteorological monitoring and operational flood forecasting, and we determined separate ED thresholds for the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian coasts of Calabria. We expect the ED rainfall thresholds for Calabria to be used in regional and national landslide warning systems. The thresholds can also be used for landslide hazard and risk assessments, and for erosion and landscape evolution studies, in the study area and in similar physiographic regions in the Mediterranean area.

scholarly journals Prediction of factors affecting activation of soil erosion by mathematical modeling at pedon scale under laboratory conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Shojaei ◽  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Jesús Rodrigo-Comino
Keyword(s):  
Soil Loss ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Quadratic Function ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Soil Protection ◽  
Single Factor ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Production

AbstractSoil degradation due to erosion is a significant worldwide problem at different spatial (from pedon to watershed) and temporal scales. All stages and factors in the erosion process must be detected and evaluated to reduce this environmental issue and protect existing fertile soils and natural ecosystems. Laboratory studies using rainfall simulators allow single factors and interactive effects to be investigated under controlled conditions during extreme rainfall events. In this study, three main factors (rainfall intensity, inclination, and rainfall duration) were assessed to obtain empirical data for modeling water erosion during single rainfall events. Each factor was divided into three levels (− 1, 0, + 1), which were applied in different combinations using a rainfall simulator on beds (6 × 1 m) filled with soil from a study plot located in the arid Sistan region, Iran. The rainfall duration levels tested were 3, 5, and 7 min, the rainfall intensity levels were 30, 60, and 90 mm/h, and the inclination levels were 5, 15, and 25%. The results showed that the highest rainfall intensity tested (90 mm/h) for the longest duration (7 min) caused the highest runoff (62 mm3/s) and soil loss (1580 g/m2/h). Based on the empirical results, a quadratic function was the best mathematical model (R2 = 0.90) for predicting runoff (Q) and soil loss. Single-factor analysis revealed that rainfall intensity was more influential for runoff production than changes in time and inclination, while rainfall duration was the most influential single factor for soil loss. Modeling and three-dimensional depictions of the data revealed that sediment production was high and runoff production lower at the beginning of the experiment, but this trend was reversed over time as the soil became saturated. These results indicate that avoiding the initial stage of erosion is critical, so all soil protection measures should be taken to reduce the impact at this stage. The final stages of erosion appeared too complicated to be modeled, because different factors showed differing effects on erosion.

scholarly journals Individual Rainfall Change Based on Observed Hourly Precipitation Records on the Chinese Loess Plateau from 1983 to 2012

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2268
Author(s):  
Wenbin Ding ◽  
Fei Wang ◽  
Kai Jin ◽  
Jianqiao Han ◽  
Qiang Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Total Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
Rainfall Frequency ◽  
Annual Total

The magnitude and spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation are the main drivers of hydrologic and agricultural processes in soil moisture, runoff generation, soil erosion, vegetation growth and agriculture activities on the Loess Plateau (LP). This study detects the spatiotemporal variations of individual rainfall events during a rainy season (RS) from May to September based on the hourly precipitation data measured at 87 stations on the LP from 1983 to 2012. The incidence and contribution rates were calculated for all classes of rainfall duration and intensity to identify the dominant contribution to the rainfall amount and frequency variations. The trend rates of regional mean annual total rainfall amount (ATR) and annual mean rainfall intensity (ARI) were 0.43 mm/year and 0.002 mm/h/year in the RS for 1983–2012, respectively. However, the regional mean annual total rainfall frequency (ARF) and rainfall events (ATE) were −0.27 h/year and −0.11 times/year, respectively. In terms of spatial patterns, an increase in ATR appeared in most areas except for the southwest, while the ARI increased throughout the study region, with particularly higher values in the northwest and southeast. Areas of decreasing ARF occurred mainly in the northwest and central south of the LP, while ATE was found in most areas except for the northeast. Short-duration (≤6 h) and light rainfall events occurred mostly on the LP, accounting for 69.89% and 72.48% of total rainfall events, respectively. Long-duration (≥7 h) and moderate rainfall events contributed to the total rainfall amount by 70.64% and 66.73% of the total rainfall amount, respectively. Rainfall frequency contributed the most to the variations of rainfall amount for light and moderate rainfall events, while rainfall intensity played an important role in heavy rainfall and rainstorms. The variation in rainfall frequency for moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall, and rainstorms is mainly affected by rainfall duration, while rainfall event was identified as a critical factor for light rainfall. The characteristics in rainfall variations on the Loess Plateau revealed in this study can provide useful information for sustainable water resources management and plans.

scholarly journals Shallow landslides stochastic risk modelling based on the precipitation event of August 2005 in Switzerland: results and implications

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 747-791 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Nicolet ◽  
L. Foresti ◽  
O. Caspar ◽  
M. Jaboyedoff
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Shallow Landslides ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Damage Cost ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Weather Radars ◽  
Large Spread ◽  
Probabilistic Relation

Abstract. Due to their relatively unpredictable characteristics, shallow-landslides represent a risk for human infrastructures. Multiple shallow-landslides can be triggered by large spread precipitation events. The event of August 2005 in Switzerland is used in order to propose a risk model to predict the expected number of landslides based on the precipitation amounts and lithological units. The spatial distribution of rainfall is characterized by blending data coming from operational weather radars and a dense network of rain gauges with an artificial neural network. Lithologies are grouped into four main units, with similar characteristics. Then, from a landslide inventory containing more than 5000 landslides, a probabilistic relation linking the precipitation amount and the lithology to the number of landslides in a 1 km2 cell, is obtained. In a next step, this relation is used to randomly redistribute the landslides using Monte-Carlo simulations. The probability for a landslide to reach a building is assessed using stochastic geometry and the damage cost is assessed from the estimated mean damage cost using an exponential distribution to account for the variability. Although the outputs reproduce well the number of landslides, the number of affected buildings is not reproduced by the model. This seems to results from the human influence on landslide occurrence. Such a model might be useful to characterize the risk resulting from shallow-landslides and its variability.

Measurement properties of tipping bucket rain gauges and their influence on urban runoff simulation

1997 ◽  
Vol 36 (8-9) ◽  
pp. 7-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Fankhauser
Keyword(s):  
Time Resolution ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Depth Resolution ◽  
Urban Hydrology ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Rainfall Depth ◽  
Bucket Size

Tipping bucket rain gauges (TBR) have become the most common device for measuring rainfall intensity in urban hydrology. Due to the measurement principle, the time resolution depends on rainfall intensity and bucket size. The present study investigated the influence of calibration uncertainties and bucket size on the accuracy of rainfall measurement and runoff simulation. Synthetic rainfall events with a time resolution of 6 seconds were generated from measured data. These rainfall series were taken as input to a model that simulated a TBR. Different TBR data series were produced by changing calibration parameters and bucket size of the simulated rain gauge. These data series together with the original rainfall events were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model. Computed runoff and overflow volume from a CSO weir were compared. The differences in rainfall depth, intensity peak and computed runoff due to the depth resolution of the TBR were smaller than expected. A depth resolution of the TBR of 0.2 - 0.3 mm per tip seems to fulfil the requirements in urban hydrology. Errors resulting from depth resolution are small compared to those of calibration (especially false rainfall depth per tip), site exposure, the influence of wind or disregarded areal rainfall distribution.

scholarly journals Estimating Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Occurrence in the Bhutan Himalayas

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhirup Dikshit ◽  
Raju Sarkar ◽  
Biswajeet Pradhan ◽  
Saroj Acharya ◽  
Kelzang Dorji
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Antecedent Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Thresholds ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
The World ◽  
Landslide Data

Consistently over the years, particularly during monsoon seasons, landslides and related geohazards in Bhutan are causing enormous damage to human lives, property, and road networks. The determination of thresholds for rainfall triggered landslides is one of the most effective methods to develop an early warning system. Such thresholds are determined using a variety of rainfall parameters and have been successfully calculated for various regions of the world at different scales. Such thresholds can be used to forecast landslide events which could help in issuing an alert to civic authorities. A comprehensive study on the determination of rainfall thresholds characterizing landslide events for Bhutan is lacking. This paper focuses on defining event rainfall–duration thresholds for Chukha Dzongkhag, situated in south-west Bhutan. The study area is chosen due to the increase in frequency of landslides during monsoon along Phuentsholing-Thimphu highway, which passes through it and this highway is a major trade route of the country with the rest of the world. The present threshold method revolves around the use of a power law equation to determine event rainfall–duration thresholds. The thresholds have been established using available rainfall and landslide data for 2004–2014. The calculated threshold relationship is fitted to the lower boundary of the rainfall conditions leading to landslides and plotted in logarithmic coordinates. The results show that a rainfall event of 24 h with a cumulated rainfall of 53 mm can cause landslides. Later on, the outcome of antecedent rainfall varying from 3–30 days was also analysed to understand its effect on landslide incidences based on cumulative event rainfall. It is also observed that a minimum 10-day antecedent rainfall of 88 mm and a 20-day antecedent rainfall of 142 mm is required for landslide occurrence in the area. The thresholds presented can be improved with the availability of hourly rainfall data and the addition of more landslide data. These can also be used as an early warning system especially along the Phuentsholing–Thimphu Highway to prevent any disruptions of trade.

Trends in rainfall intensity for stormwater designs in Ontario

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Vasiljevic ◽  
E. McBean ◽  
B. Gharabaghi
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Sewer Pipes ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Storm Sewer

The intensities of short-duration rainfall events are fundamental inputs to the design of stormwater management infrastructure. However, since stormwater infrastructure must function as designed for many decades, if there are long-term trends in rainfall intensities, design storms need to be modified. Evidence demonstrates, using data from 13 rain gauges in Ontario, that storm intensities relevant to urban stormwater (5 year) appear to have changed over the last 30 years. The results show, for example, statistical significance at 80% confidence that the 5-year storm has increased, and 85% that the 2-year storm has increased, for the 1 h storm in Waterloo, using partial duration series (PDS) data. The PDS data indicate intensities are increasing at a rate of 1–3% per year. Results show, for example, that a 5-year recurrence storm for PDS for the period 1970–1984 is now very close in magnitude to a 2-year recurrence storm for the period 1985–2003 for Waterloo, Ontario. The implications for a case study demonstrate that 5 out of 12 storm sewer pipes in a subdivision would need to be increased in diameter to obtain the same level of stormwater performance.

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